WON'T GET FOOLED AGAIN

Harry Litman [00:00:07] Welcome to Talking Feds, a roundtable that brings together prominent former federal officials and special guests for a dynamic discussion of the most important political and legal topics of the day. I'm Harry Litman. President Biden's first full week in office was eventful on several fronts. 45 Republicans voted that Donald Trump's impeachment trial was unconstitutional, a dubious position that nevertheless suggested an acquittal at the trial beginning February 8th. Biden signed a flurry of executive orders on climate change. Wall Street had a roller coaster week with a steep dove, a partial rebound and a crazy exuberance for shares of a video game retailer. 


And there was a rare bit of good news with the virus as new cases in the US, though not deaths, have fallen thirty five percent over the last three weeks. As Biden embarks on an ambitious agenda, the debris from the Trump years litters the political landscape. It's a Herculean task to try to clean up the mess and rebuild foundations strong enough to resist the next Trump. How does a democracy stay responsive to the people, yet still protect them from the worst effects of a demagog? Or is that even possible, especially with some 70 million citizens, and much of the Republican caucus in Congress, still in thrall to the former president? 


That's our focus today and we have an ideal panel to talk it through - in fact, they wrote the book. They are Bob Bauer, Professor of Practice and Distinguished Scholar in residence at NYU Law School and co-director of NYU Legislative and Regulatory Process Clinic. Bob served as White House Counsel to President Obama and was named co-chair of the Presidential Commission on Election Administration in 2013. He is the co-author of After Trump Reconstructing the Presidency, an in-depth assessment of the damage to the constitutional system perpetrated by our just departed president, and an exposition of some dozens of concrete policy proposals to plug the gaps that Trump exploited. Bob, thank you very much for joining. 


Bob Bauer [00:02:26] Thank you for having me. 


Harry Litman [00:02:28] Jack Goldsmith, the Learned Hand professor of law at Harvard University, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, and the co-founder of the Lawfare blog. Jack served as assistant attorney general for the Office of Legal Counsel from 2003 to 2004 and special counsel to the Department of Defense from 2002 to 2003. He's a prolific author and I want to note just one from 2019 because it's sort of a departure for him but a total page turner. "In Hoffa's Shadow," about a suspect in the death of Jimmy Hoffa, who happens to have been Jack's stepfather. But most important for current purposes, he is that other co-author with Bob of After Trump. Jack, thanks for coming. 


Jack Goldsmith [00:03:16] Thank you, Harry. 


Harry Litman [00:03:17] And Jamie Gorelick, one of the best known litigators in the United States, she has been a partner at Wilmer Hale since 2003. Among her countless accolades, she's been named Lawyer of the Year by Best Lawyers in America and won the 2018 Lifetime Achiever Award by the American Lawyer. She served as the Deputy Attorney General of the United States from 1994 to 1997, where I can attest she inspired universal respect and ferocious loyalty. She also was a member of the bipartisan 9/11 Commission, as well as the General Counsel of the Department of Defense. Jamie, thank you so much for joining. 


Jamie Gorelick [00:03:56] Glad to be here. 


Harry Litman [00:03:57] Let's just start with a few high level questions and maybe through a political lens. Bob and Jack, you've said the reason we wrote the book is that we worry about a more competent Trump presidency in the future. How likely is that? Trump, I think, did a lot more damage than most people, certainly than I anticipated, and did capitalize on vulnerabilities in the political system that we didn't know existed. But he was in so many ways a singular president, and not least because of this remarkable sort of shamelessness and imperviousness to norms. So does it make sense in the first place to try to regulate against that kind of singular figure? And is there a risk that in doing so, you sort of deform the system as it exists for 99 percent of normal times in the country? 


Jack Goldsmith [00:04:51] So that's a great question. We obviously think it was, that it was worth proposing these reforms. There is a danger, and we talk about this upfront in the book that one presidency can create problems for the operation of the presidency for other presidencies. So in trying to deal with one problem, the last problem, you could make it harder for the next president. For two reasons at least, we think that these reforms are important despite the fact that Trump was a singular figure. One is some of these reforms we now believe some issues like tax disclosure, mandatory tax disclosure for presidents and presidential candidates, conflict of interest rules, things that were accepted as norms by both parties and presidents of both parties, and there are other issues, for decades and decades and that were followed as a matter of norms. 


Trump has now shown that one can violate those and get away with it, and there's just not any justification for that. It's not the kind of things that are going to be a problem for any president with integrity, and those things we think shouldn't be left to norms any longer. They should be governed by law. So that should be done, and we don't think there's any normative justification for not doing that, regardless of who the next president is. Then there's a cluster of concerns and a large motivation for the book, and that is that there will be another Trump. And it won't look just like Donald Trump and it won't have his singular characteristics. And it might be left wing and it might be right wing and it might be something else. But there's definitely still a large populist strain in the country. There's definitely still an anti-elitist strain. Trump has shown the power of demagog politics and we think that we need to prepare, and it would be irresponsible not to prepare for another demagogic-type president that might not look like Trump. And we think we can do so, and we propose a bunch of ways to do so that won't hamper a presidency with integrity. 


Harry Litman [00:06:34] That's an interesting question, the sort of rise of a person like Trump. I was reviewing the Federalist Papers in preparation for this, and Hamilton actually wrote in Federalist 68 that the process of election affords a moral certainty that the office of president will never fall to the lot of any man who's not in an eminent degree endowed with the requisite qualifications, and goes on to sort of discount the probability of a demagogue arising. You trace in the book the possibility of a future trump, the even more scary, more competent Trump to the general democratization of the nomination process, the sort of withdrawal of party forces and more of a popular control over who gets the nomination. Is that fair and is that what you think makes the prospect of another Trump more tangible? 


Bob Bauer [00:07:29] Yes. But let me let me just say one thing, which is I think the counterpoint to the Hamilton citation of yours a minute ago, and that is, yes, their view was that if given the structure of the constitutional arrangements, given the safeguards they thought they had put in place, the framers believed that they had erected some safeguards against the election of a demagog or as Madison put it, I think in number ten, against the unworthy candidate who practiced sort of the vicious arts by which elections are sometimes won. And the arrangement that they put in place doesn't have those same safeguards any longer. Or let's put it this way, they don't have the same safeguards and are not erected to the same effect. The structures have changed significantly. The assumptions behind the election of candidates are very different today. 


Harry Litman [00:08:16] Is that basically because of the rise of the party system? 


Bob Bauer [00:08:18] That's right. There's no question that party competition has a good bit to do with it. Most significantly, there is no filtering mechanism any longer, the parties don't play that role. So when Donald Trump took over the Republican Party, the Republican Party didn't, if you will, resist. Remember, there was some discussion that the party in Cleveland would rise up to defend itself against Trump, and it didn't do that. And the general view is that candidates, whoever they may be, whatever their most recent party affiliation might have been, should be free to enter the primary competitions of the major parties. In some cases, they don't rely on any support except their own bank accounts and an attempt to rise to the top. And so there isn't anything to stop that from happening any longer. 


Harry Litman [00:08:58] Let me ask just about then. So if we're going to be doing these reforms, is it feasible to think that they can be initiated, say now? What political people or offices might we look to to take the lead in this sort of clean up project? In the wake of, say, Watergate, there was a broad social consensus that we needed to do things, and it led to the church commission and a number of things. Here, you still have a very strong Trump base and a party that seems to be afraid of him and a president who has a lot of other things to do. If these proposals were to be run with, who do you see as taking the baton and running? And I wanted to include in this and maybe ask Jamie, who was so close with and has known Merrick Garland for many years, whether that would be something that he would actually try to make part of his tenure. 


Jamie Gorelick [00:09:52] Well, to the extent that the norms that were broken are norms that involve the Department of Justice, I think you will see certainly his practice changing, although a lot of the practice that needs changing is the behavior of the president, and Joe Biden is not going to do these things. And I would note actually I was thinking, Jack, as you were speaking, that one of the main things that has changed is that a president can speak via Twitter or something else. All of the norms about the relationship between the Justice Department and the White House were premised on the idea that there would be a conversation or a writing that went between the White House and the Justice Department and the processes that were set up or designed to force that conversation to be between the attorney general and the deputy attorney general on one hand, and the White House counsel and the deputy White House counsel on the other. 


And then you have the president just speaking to everyone, including whoever might be able to hear it at the Justice Department. So there are a lot of things that have changed. The one event that I would point to, Harry, as a model was the lapsing of the independent counsel law. It was allowed to lapse by both parties when both of them could have been gored by it. So depending on what the substance of the changes would be, you could imagine a circumstance where no one knows who's going to be constrained by what, and they jump off the cliff together. I mean, there was bipartisan agreement that the independent counsel law was distorting of our justice system for different reasons from the left and the right. But they came to the same place. 


Harry Litman [00:11:36] Yeah, I want to be talking about that among the concrete proposals. And it's the first thing I thought of when Jack mentioned about fighting the last war. It seems the perfect example of we've had two systems in place and the independent counsel statute, to my mind, seems perfectly adapted to the Mueller investigation and the special counsel perfectly adapted to the star. And I'm not sure where we go from there. 


Jamie Gorelick [00:12:01] Let me just say, my point was not about the independent counsel law. It was about the the process of consensus. Yes, you could develop an agreement between the political parties that changes should be put in place because at a time when nobody knows who's going to be affected. 


Harry Litman [00:12:18] Yeah, I suppose that's possible. I wonder who initiates here, especially if since, as you say, things figure to quiet down quite a bit. Let me ask actually, Jack and Bob, if you think there's a realistic prospect that people remember the recent past well enough to try, in fact, to initiate some of these proposals. 


Bob Bauer [00:12:40] You are right, there's a tendency to use a phrase that you hear now, and I think, unfortunately, the number of context that there's a tendency for the political process to, quote, move on and for the public to be urged to quote unquote, move on. And then we move past an experience far faster than we should when we should be absorbing and responding to it and also learning from it in a way that enables us potentially to protect against reoccurrence. It's going to require a combination of outside pressures, some at least consistent focus on these reforms that has brought into the media and brought to the Congress. And to the extent that it's necessary to the administration, to move at least some of this forward, to keep attention paid to it in some way. No question about that. And it may be that it is a question of setting priorities. I suspect it is. 


And starting with Jack and I refer to it this way, I think a couple of times in the book as these sort of lower hanging fruit here, the sort of reforms on which there ought to be some bipartisan consensus like financial conflict of interest regulations, and maybe even, because the House has started to move in this direction, reform of the pardon power. So it's not all going to get done. The one thing I do want to stress, however, is that beyond the practice in the Department of Justice, that is to the better personnel with high ethical standards who are not going to repeat the mistakes of their predecessors. There's also the opportunity to strengthen by internal regulation, some of the safeguards against the politicization of the Department of Justice. And I think we've seen enough in the last few years to prompt some consideration of that in the Garland Department of Justice, and I think we all hope to see that. 


Jamie Gorelick [00:14:13] Bob, that's the sort of thing that can be just tossed by a new administration. If in the Biden administration, a regulation is put in place with regard to contacts with the White House, a new administration can put in place a new regulation. What meaningfully have you achieved? 


Bob Bauer [00:14:33] It is important to reaffirm the standards. What I use as an example, and maybe it's one of a kind, but I don't think it's insignificant. Jimmy Carter began on his presidency in the post Watergate period by signing into effect an executive order that set out executive branch wide ethics standards to supplement the ones already in place. And in every succeeding administration, the public and the press expects, certainly the press expects, that presidents will do the same, and even Donald Trump signed into effect on the first day in office an ethics code. I think that with the right structuring and the right focus and adequate public attention. One administration at least creates a demand that the next administration defend its unwillingness to do that. One administration makes an issue of regulation that would have the effect of plugging gaps in the deep politicization structures, and the next administration is going to have to explain why it wants to reopen those gaps. So I think it serves some purpose, it's not a guarantee, and of course, that's one of the reasons why in our book, Jack and I recommend a mix of internal regulation and legislative reform. 


Jack Goldsmith [00:15:38] I think it's important, and I agree with Jamie's point, that if one administration changed the regulations, another one can certainly come in and in theory change them. But these things are stickier than that, I think. And it's important to realize the extent to which most - not all, but most of the norm breaking that went on in the Trump administration came from the president's mouth and Twitter feed. And, yes, Barr broke a few norms, but for the most part, we should appreciate and remember the extent to which the Department of Justice didn't carry out the president's wishes, the extent to which the norms and the laws that inform the norms held. I mean, no one, if you read volume two of the Mueller report, no one in the White House or in the Justice Department would go along with the president's pressure. 


And that was in part because there was a norm against resisting that, and in part because they were worried about the obstruction of justice statute and its uncertain application. So I think that the norms that are established in the Justice Department and the practices that established mattered more than people give them credit for, even though they're not like enforceable laws. Some other examples, some of the reforms aren't just about setting norms, they're about clarifying responsibilities in ways that weren't clarified before and should be clarified in ways going forward that we think will take away a lot of the politicization. There was a lot of uncertainty about the allocation of authority and unclarity about the allocation of authority between the FBI and the Justice Department that the inspector general noted in both the Hillary Clinton investigation report and in the Carter Page report. 


And that's the kind of thing that we think could be clarified. We think that those important decisions should be made in the attorney general's office, that they shouldn't be dealable, that a future FBI director should not have discretion to do some of the things that Director Comey did, or that the norms were not clarified enough that he could do what he did. So there's a lot of clarity that could be brought to bear that we think will also improve the government. So I think that these norms and these regulations in these patterns of behavior stickier than we think, which is not to say that they're perfect. And that's why, again, none of these solutions are perfect. They're all about moving the guardrails, so to speak. And we do think there's important statutory reforms that need to be done in conjunction with these internal reforms. 


Harry Litman [00:17:56] So, yes, I mean, you are sort of building different bricks and you make a pretty persuasive case in the book, actually, that the norms held more with the exception of the present. And you do have the feeling, looking back on it that the times when they bent, it was under, I think, of a few times where the deputy attorney general, Rod Rosenstein, definitely abridged some of the norms, but there was a feeling of really walking against the wind. To Jamie's point though, I just wanted to do a postscript because Trump himself did, as Bob said, enact that code coming in. But in the hubbub at the end, not everybody knew that he simply just withdrew it. So his sort of great drain the swamp ethical guidelines for the executive branch at the end, he just said, never mind. 


Jack Goldsmith [00:18:39] Exactly, but the White House, for example, the contacts policy that every administration, as Jamie was alluding to, every administration comes in with a new version, some variation on the theme. And that was true in the Trump administration as well, but those guidelines never applied to the president. They never purported to tell the president what he could or couldn't say. I don't think the president was ever mentioned in any of those guidelines. They were always about White House DOJ, and they're always about ensuring that the relationship between the White House counsel and the attorney general and the head of the agencies, et cetera, et cetera. 


Harry Litman [00:19:08] Can I push back on that and ask Jamie? Because they don't say that in text, but I would have actually thought that the norm had some power, you know, during the Clinton investigation. I don't think he would have willy nilly picked up the phone and called, well, certainly not Janet Reno. But that's sort of the point in part of norms, right, that they have a kind of open-endedness and a cultural force that can apply outside their bounds. 


Jamie Gorelick [00:19:34] I think Jack is saying that the letter itself doesn't apply to the president. 


Jack Goldsmith [00:19:38] That's all I was saying. I wasn't saying there wasn't a norm that applied to the president. I was just saying that a lot of these policies technically weren't dealing with the situation presented by Trump. I do think that there were powerful norms about speaking about ongoing prosecutions that presidents adhered to prior to Trump. 


Jamie Gorelick [00:19:55] I frankly thought that the letter itself applied to the president and the vice president and everyone in the White House. There is a letter that has been exchanged, if you will, between the White House and the Justice Department at the outset of every administration going back decades, that basically says communications between the Justice Department and the White House on enforcement matters must be in this very tight channel between the White House counsel and his or her deputy and the attorney general and his or her deputy. And it doesn't declare what you may or may not say, it assumes that people in those positions will exercise the appropriate judgment. And as far as I know, that is what happened. I mean, there was a view that that letter, the so-called no contacts policy, meant no contacts, and that if you ever were to get a call from someone in the White House about a pending enforcement matter, I mean, you would like, hang up. And so the question then is what to do about that? 


When people started to focus on the fact that Trump was signaling via his tweets what he wanted to have happen in enforcement matters, people called and I remember reporters calling me and say, well what is the policy? And I described the policy, and they they looked at the letter and they said, but all this does is channel communications. It doesn't say that he can't do that. And that is true. It doesn't say that the White House can't have a conversation. And the, and the one thing I would like to get to is what is the consequence of saying you can't have a conversation? Because I actually think that that has profound potential consequences for the Justice Department if it can't in any way speak to the White House about an enforcement matter. 


Bob Bauer [00:21:49] Can I introduce a slightly darker note here about norms for a second? And that is I agree that some of them held and behaviors of officials influenced by norms were better, more stalwart in the face of challenge than some people might have feared. But at the same time, I think norms also reflect widely accepted parameters at a particular moment in our politics. And some of these norms are under pressures that Donald Trump didn't generate, he exploited them. As an example, by the way, which is why I want to bring it into the DOJ conversation, is what we mean when we say that the White House doesn't involve itself in enforcement matters. And, Jamie, that something it would be helpful to sort of explore here. 


What do we mean by intervention in enforcement matters? Trump was perplexed that he was told apparently time and again that he shouldn't direct the prosecution of identified parties, whether they were political enemies or whoever else it might have been the ones on a given day to have prosecuted. But we all know that a president might have motives to prosecute that are entirely consistent with policies that they've articulated. Take a candidate who has campaigned on, say, making Wall Street executives accountable for financial abuses, and is answering a complaint that not enough accountability was achieved in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. 


And this president comes to the conclusion that his or her Department of Justice has just simply not been robust enough in responding to press reports of abuse on Wall Street, and he wants to see prosecutions. He wants to see senior executives whose names show up in the paper investigated thoroughly for misdeeds that the public expects to be addressed in some fashion. Can that president say to the White House counsel, I read this horrific story in The New York Times this morning about executive acts of financial institution, why I want that SOB investigated! The channel is certainly the correct one, the communication went to the White House counsel. White House counsel calls the deputy attorney general and says investigate. Now, is that improper? 


Jamie Gorelick [00:23:47] Yes, that's the exact point I'm making, is that the letter itself, the no contacts policy itself, isn't really a no contact policy. I think everyone would agree that short of the very last thing you said, Bob, it is entirely appropriate for a president to say, I want my Department of Justice to throw the book at the kind of financial crimes that we saw on the financial crisis. George Bush actually said that to Larry Thompson and set up a whole rubric for doing that. That's different, of course, from saying go indict so-and-so. 


Bob Bauer [00:24:21] Didn't say indict, though. Let me push you on that, if I could a little bit. What if in the White House press briefing room, the White House press secretary is asked, we read this morning about this outlandish, apparent scheme on Wall Street. Is the president concerned? Yes, the president is absolutely concerned. Does the president expect the Department of Justice to look into the matter? Well, we think the president's concerned about matters like this. And so, yes...so in another sense, it's an exercise in signaling. Why shouldn't, some would say, the president said, yes, the president expects the Department of Justice to look into this. Would you view that as an interference in the enforcement process? 


Jamie Gorelick [00:24:55] I personally don't. This is why I worry about turning norms into rules. I had a couple of occasions to talk to one of your predecessors, Bob, about enforcement matters that reflected significant policy issues within the department, and I think that the president ought to be able to weigh in on the policy matters, I'm distinguishing that from this happened, saying to Attorney General Barr, I don't like the way that my former national security adviser was punished here. I would like you to do whatever you can to change the result in the prosecution of Mike Flynn. I see those as two quite different things. 


Jack Goldsmith [00:25:38] And if I might say, that's an important distinction. We are not proposing, and in fact, we acknowledge more so than many people are willing to acknowledge, that the president under Article II has significant authority to direct the attorney general in his law enforcement priorities. There are plenty of examples in the 19th centuries of presidents getting involved in particular prosecutions. We accept that, and we don't purport to change that. What we're concerned about is when the president gets involved in directly self-interested law enforcement matters, things when he's trying to protect himself, when he's trying perhaps to obstruct justice, things that look like obstruction of justice or when he's trying to use law enforcement matters against his political opponents. 


Those are the dangerous situations. They are very hard to regulate, but precisely because presidents do have this authority, precisely because there situations when the Justice Department might appropriately go after, in an enforcement or investigation, a member of a different party. But Trump really highlighted the weaknesses of the norms and the law when it comes to presidents trying to manipulate law enforcement to protect themselves, protect their friends and hurt their enemies. And he went further in that regard, arguably further in some dimensions than Nixon, and those are the areas we're focused on. We're not, in general focused on things that Jamie was worried about. And by the way, this is not something everyone agrees with, but we wouldn't - I wouldn't, I don't think Bob would want to alter what Jamie said should be the normal practice. I think we actually acknowledge that in the book. 


Jamie Gorelick [00:27:03] And on the political part, Trump interfering with the prosecutions of people he was close to. But I don't think there's hardly anyone who worked in the Department of Justice, bottom to top, who would disagree with the line that you've drawn. 


Jack Goldsmith [00:27:17] Yeah, but the tricky part is figuring out how to accomplish it. 


Harry Litman [00:27:21] Yeah, well, I think in general, I mean, this is making an important point about norms versus laws. I mean, in the Federalist 68 world where you have people with ultimate judgment, et cetera, there are many times where norms are a greater virtue, exactly as Jamie is saying, because they allow for the flexibility when it's needed, and it's very hard to legislate what that would be in advance. I want to ask you first about the special counsel. You have several concrete issues here. You call in general for especially a requirement, I guess imposed within the executive branch, and this is another aside to our previous conversation. But of course, there's always the risk that a future administration will take a very strong view of Article II and actually not follow some of the things that have been passed in a regulatory way. But you call especially for the requirement of a full factual report by a special counsel or an independent counsel. And so what problem are you responding to there? 


Jack Goldsmith [00:28:26] Let me just preface by saying we have a lot of fine-grained in the weeds proposals for the special counsel. We basically think that the 1999 regulations that replaced the independent counsel statute and that the move from the independent counsel statute to the 1999 regulations was a move in the right direction in a couple of ways. We think that ultimately the decisions have to be grounded and the legal decisions have to be made by the attorney general. We don't think that having a fully kind of a really independent counsel is a good idea in these contexts. So we we agree with the thrust of the regulations, and we basically try to enhance what they try to do with the one exception of what you just talked about. Let me also say there's no perfect solution. 


You're trying to predict the future and we're working it out over time, but I do think the regulations learned from the statute experience, and and I think, frankly, for the most part, there were problems with them under the Mueller investigation. That was the first time they've really ever been given a full test. But in any event, the point that you just raised is a point where we kind of depart from the regulations, and that is the regulations tried to - they didn't like the experience with Starr and his impeachment report. And there was a statutory requirement or authorization for the independent counsel to send a report to Congress related to impeachment. The regulations took that out. They call for a report. They didn't call it an impeachment report, but they were clearly trying to move in the other direction of less reporting. Less public reporting gave the attorney general discretion. I don't think the regulations contemplated a four hundred and some-odd report like Mueller filed, which was in effect, in my judgment, an impeachment report. 


We think that in these high status cases that the account, the so-called accountability function of the. Special counsel, the gathering of facts and reporting to the public is inevitably going to happen, and we think that is an important function of the special counsel and we would try to protect the special counsel's ability to perform that function. And there are dangers with that, but we basically think that the special counsel should be given some protection from the attorney general and some independence to develop the facts within the law is determined by the attorney general. And then the attorney general has lots of authority on the back end to make legal decisions and the like, but there is a reporting role for the special counsel to report these facts publicly. So we try to build that into the regulations. There's a counterargument to that, but we don't think it should be an impeachment report, we think it should be factual. But basically that's that's the argument. And that's a departure from the regulations and emphasis that's different from the regulations. 


Harry Litman [00:30:55] Would you have a Trump rule six? Would you have the authority to disclose grand jury material? 


Bob Bauer [00:31:00] I think that we suggest that the special counsel, if I remember correctly, said that the special counsel can take into account grand jury secrecy and privacy considerations. What came to mind immediately? Maybe it's the wrong thing to come to mind, something like the famous Starr appendix. 


Jamie Gorelick [00:31:16] You could have, in essence, two different reports. To me, the most important thing about the independent counsel rules from the point of view of the Justice Department having lived through the Reno years when we just had one after another, it was ridiculous, is that there should be very few circumstances in which the Justice Department cannot find someone within its ranks who is independent and competent to do an investigation. There should be very few circumstances and the reason for that is it is distorting. There is no way that most of the time that was spent by most of those independent counsels would have been spent by any normal prosecutor. And it exacted an enormous toll to the members of the cabinet and others who were subject to that, and intentionally subject for a very long time. 


I mean, Starr prolonged one piece of it that my successor handed him that A, shouldn't have gone to him, and B, it should have been concluded right away. And everyone knew what the bottom line was, they knew what he concluded and he just held on to it for two years. That was obscene. And so I would say it should be, in order to keep regular order, there really should be very few circumstances in which you go outside of the department. Now, having said that, what happened with my partner, Bob Mueller, was also an outrage. I mean, it was an impeachment report. It was here are the facts, you Congress do your job, and they never got it. They never got it. 


Harry Litman [00:32:50] Yeah. I mean, it struck me as a report, you know, just leaving aside whether there was retribution for criminal conduct, that the nation as a whole doesn't fully know the facts is, I think, a huge problem. Now, one reason, of course, which is the ability under the current regime for the attorney general to dictate. And I note that in several of your proposals involving the tweaking of the special counsel provisions, you basically rely on attorney general notification to Congress, which I think proved not equal to the task in the last go round with Bill Barr. 


Jamie Gorelick [00:33:29] I think history would have been very different if in real time, when Mueller finished his report, it went to the Hill. 


Harry Litman [00:33:36] It strikes me you don't disagree with - I mean, don't speak to timing, but you really say that one thing the attorney general shouldn't be able to impede is the production and publication of a factual report, yes? 


Bob Bauer [00:33:48] We have an appendix in which we do have the text for just a few of our proposals. So that is to say, some sort of model. Texas, for argument's sake, and there are timelines built into it. There's a calendar for assuring, to the extent that you can assure these things, with the regulation, obviously, that the president could change, but a timelines for the production of the public report and its transmittal to Congress, yes. I don't recall how long the delay was, but I don't know that it was fatal. And the way it was spun certainly was an issue, but I think ultimately it was the difference between public expectation of the report and the content of the report that doomed any impeachment effort based on it. 


Harry Litman [00:34:24] It raises a really important general question because we focus on Trump and his aberrations, but a big part of the last four years has been by power or persuasion or whatever else, his ability to keep in thrall the entire Republican Senate. And as long as that was going to be the case, you know, who knows which of these reforms would actually be effective. 


Bob Bauer [00:34:48] What I was referring to is that the expectation that there would be some very strong findings on collusion, the expectation that he would reach a conclusion about obstruction of justice. When that turned out not to be the case, I think the impeachment balloon lost most of its air. 


Jamie Gorelick [00:35:03] You may be right. 


Harry Litman [00:35:04] A very interesting, and pretty radical proposal here and Bob, I'll ask you about it, given your background, is the dramatic shrinking of the White House counsel's office. So can you describe that and explain how you think it dovetails with the abuses of the last administration? 


Bob Bauer [00:35:22] We begin the chapter on the White House counsel by talking about the sort of controversial history of the office, the fear that people have had, that the White House counsel is just too much under the thumb of the president, who often reflects personal and political relationships with the president in too often a way that the president can shop for the advice that the president wants, as the White House counsel is a member of the White House senior staff. And so where's that team jersey, if you will, or who will be seen to be wearing the team jersey? And then we talk about Trump's expectations, which were constantly frustrated. We don't know everything that happened in the last few months with Pat Cipollone, but we certainly know that he had his conflict with Don McGahn. And we know a good bit about the experience with McGahn, and Trump's frustration wasn't, again, wasn't Roy Cohn. He didn't understand why it was he had a lawyer who just wouldn't do what he asked him to do. 


And it made me reflect on a job that was the best job I will ever have, I enjoyed every minute of it, that really at the end of the day, while the president, for practical reasons, does need to have legal advisers in the building, available, downstairs to the Oval Office on a moment's notice, available to the senior staff, that the building of a small law firm in the White House sucks so much credibility and authority away, at least on the issues the president cares about, from other component agencies including the Department of Justice, that I think it's dangerous, and it would be far better to have the White House counsel and a couple of deputies in the White House who would have the core analytic support function return to the Department of Justice, that's where it was until basically the Nixon administration, although I know there was some more lawyering in the Kennedy and Johnson administrations in the White House counsel's office, but it didn't develop in the form that we have it today until the 1960s. And think it's a good balance to have the senior lawyers in the White House, but the body of lawyers who are going to attend to legal questions like that from the president located in the Department of Justice. 


Harry Litman [00:37:13] And Jack, you had that job. So I gather the specific worry is that it somehow undermines the authority of OLC, or at least gives the president a counterpoint to always raise. Did you experience that? 


Jack Goldsmith [00:37:25] I felt it on one occasion, when the White House counsel advised the president to disregard one of my opinions. But was happy when it changed his mind two days later. But other than that, I would say that, look, OLC's power vis a vis the White House counsel is often a function of not the kind of thing Bob was talking about, but who the White House Counsel is, who the attorney general is, who the head of OLC is, and who the president is. And that's a shifting relationship. I did not feel that the White House counsel was overbearing. This proposal is really not about giving OLC more power, about kind of trying to take the politicization of legal advice out of the White House. 


Jamie Gorelick [00:38:03] Let me make two comments. One is I didn't experience, Bob, what you are talking about. In the Clinton administration, the White House Counsel's office did not opine on anything that I could see, that did not have backing from the Justice Department, that's number one. And number two, no important decision of the Office of Legal Counsel went to the White House without plenary review in my office with the solicitor general, with the head of the civil division, the head of the criminal division, whoever the relevant parties would be. We took that really, really seriously. And I didn't, I didn't feel that the White House counsel's office was telling us what to do. They would call and say the president wants to do X. Is it lawful? That's the right question. And we would give them our answer. One are the norms that should be put in place is that there is that plenary review so you don't get an end around with somebody calling from the White House and getting their favorite person in OLC to write an opinion, which the head of OLC, let alone the attorney general and the deputy attorney general, don't agree with. 


Harry Litman [00:39:11] Just to raise a hypothetical. OK, I think I'll call quick audible here, because I want to get to one more question, and it's this. Why are Republicans staying with Trump until the bitter end when they deserted Nixon for what seems like less egregious behavior? 


Bob Bauer [00:39:32] The circumstances of Nixon's, they're very different. The Republican Party as a whole had started to walk away from Nixon at the very end. It is my recollection, in part because of the belief that he lost control of the government. He was inexperienced, and people thought he might not be the most charismatic person in the world. But at the same time, he was a powerful president, effective president his party thought, representing sort of a muscular proponent for the party's policies, and he was horribly enfeebled. And I think that ultimately is what led the Republican Party to walk away from him. Plus, of course, he was caught with a smoking gun tape with the complete collapse of his defense. 


Jamie Gorelick [00:40:10] There was that. There was that. 


Jack Goldsmith [00:40:12] Yeah, but Trump was caught with a smoking gun. 


Bob Bauer [00:40:14] Well that's why, I think that's where the time has changed. I think that, I think that the Republican Party has changed, and the reason that Republican members of Congress appear to be unwilling to break with him is very simply because his base isn't walking away from him in the way that Nixon's base walked away from him. 


Harry Litman [00:40:27] Right. And that, I'm sure you talked about tweets and news, I'm sure it's all connected to that. Oy vey, I wish we had more time. Thank you very much to Bob, Jack and Jamie, and thank you very much, listeners, for tuning in to Talking Feds. If you like what you've heard, please tell a friend to subscribe to us on Apple Podcasts or wherever they get their podcasts, and please take a moment to rate and review this podcast. You can follow us on Twitter @TalkingFedsPod to find out about future episodes and other Feds-related content. You can check us out on the web, talkingfeds.com , where we have full episode transcripts, and you can elect to see our latest offerings on Patreon, where we post discussions about special topics exclusively for supporters. Submit your questions to questions@talkingfeds.com , whether it's for Five Words or Fewer or general questions about the inner workings of the legal system for our Sidebar segments. 


And if you go to our website, you'll find a link to submit questions live on audio, and if we select them, we'll play your tape during the episode. Talking Feds is produced by Jennifer Bassett and Rebecca Lowe Patton. Our editor is Justin Wright. David Lieberman and Rosie Dawn Griffin are our contributing writers. Production assistance by Matt McArdle. Our consulting producer is Andrea Carla Michaels. Our gratitude, as always, to the amazing Philip Glass, who graciously lets us use his music. Talking Feds is a production of Dalito, LLC. I'm Harry Litman, see you next time.


TRANSITION, TRANSITION!

Harry Litman [00:00:00] Hi everyone, Harry here with just a quick note on our current offerings at patreon.com/talkingfeds. Four new ones, count them four, just this week, beginning with Chris Sampson on the scorecard lineup of who was at the January 6th riot, Rachel Barkow may be the country's foremost expert on pardons on Trump's overall record, Drew Weissmann on the latest round of pardons and how they might be gotten around, and then finally Katie Benner, New York Times correspondent for DOJ, on her big scoop about the near-coup that a lower level official in the Department of Justice talking personally with Donald Trump almost executed. So you can go there and check them out, see what's there, and then decide whether you would like to subscribe, but there are good things that we post there week in, week out. OK, here's our episode. 


President Joe Biden [00:00:59] This is democracy's day, a day of history and hope of renewal and resolve. We've learned again that democracy is precious, democracy is fragile, and at this hour of my friends, democracy has prevailed. 


Harry Litman [00:01:27] Welcome to Talking Feds, a roundtable that brings together prominent former federal officials and special guests for a dynamic discussion of the most important political and legal topics of the day. I'm Harry Litman. Suddenly, it's finished. The most corrupt and malevolent president in our history, who carried on a ruthless campaign in the last 90 days to try to steal the election from the rightful winner, is gone. A surprisingly strong emotional release accompanied President Joe Biden's inauguration, strange as it was in a locked down and fortified city, empty of cheering crowds and parade participants. Much beyond the excitement of a new government, it felt something like the relief at the end of a foreign occupation. 


We had the sudden sensation of Trump's chokehold on the country being pried off, remembering for the first time in four years what it is like to take a full breath. The Biden administration took the reins of government at noon on Tuesday, a few hours after Trump slinked off to Florida, the first president since fellow disgrace chief executive Andrew Johnson to refuse to attend his successor's inauguration. He left a hunted man, facing an impeachment trial in the Senate and possible criminal prosecutions in two states and the federal system. Biden delivered a solid inauguration speech that managed not to soft pedal the formidable crises facing the country, while communicating an overall sense of optimism and decency, and an aspiration of unity. 


It now falls to the new government to begin the tricky work of executing a strikingly ambitious agenda, with a Senate divided on a nice edge and the country still in the throes of partisan rancor. Its first priority is, as Biden put it, 'a full-scale wartime effort to bring the country out of the clutches of a virus that, under the breathtaking mismanagement of the Trump administration, has claimed 400,000 American lives and ravaged the economic fortunes of working Americans.' Biden also has vowed to take on the enormous challenges of climate change and racial justice. Every administration wants to seize the goodwill and momentum of the first 100 days, and nearly every administration, looking at it in retrospect, finds its path littered with unanticipated challenges and setbacks and its own mistakes. What does it feel like within the administration in its first days in office? What signals is the new administration already sending? What decisions that it will make in the next month can make or break its record? To consider these questions, we have brought together three phenomenal guests, each of whom is a greatly distinguished former government official and, notably for current purposes, each of whom played an integral part in the heady first days of a previous administration. 


They are: David Frum, a senior editor at The Atlantic and the author of 10 books, most recently "Trumpocalypse: Restoring American Democracy." He served in government as a speechwriter and special assistant to President George W. Bush from 2001 to 2002. We've been really lucky to have him already on the podcast many times, David, thank you very much for joining us again. 


David Frum [00:05:07] Thank you. 


Harry Litman [00:05:08] Dee Dee Myers, senior adviser and director of the Office of Business and Economic Development for the state of California. Dee Dee was White House press secretary to President Clinton, the first woman and second youngest person to hold that position. She later cohosted Equal Time on CNBC, and she headed corporate communications at Warner Brothers from 2014 to 2020. She is the author of the 2008 New York Times best selling book, "Why Women Should Rule the World." She has graced us with a sidebar before, but this is her first appearance as a guest on Talking Feds, welcome Dee Dee. 


Dee Dee Myers [00:05:46] Thank you, Harry. 


Harry Litman [00:05:48] And Valerie Jarrett, a senior distinguished fellow at the University of Chicago Law School and a senior adviser to the Obama Foundation. She served as senior adviser to President Barack Obama from 2009 to 2017, during which time she oversaw the White House Office of Public Engagement and Intergovernmental Affairs, and chaired the White House Council on Women and Girls. She, too, is The New York Times best-selling author, I think all three of our guests are, of her 2019 memoir, "Finding My Voice: My Journey to the West Wing and the Path Forward." This is her first time on Talking Feds, Valerie, thank you so much for being here. 


Valerie Jarrett [00:06:33] My pleasure, Harry. Good to be with you all. 


Harry Litman [00:06:36] All right. Let's begin with the consequences of the Trump administration's delayed and at best, highly grudging cooperation with the Biden transition over the last 90 days. You've been there, I think actually, David, you've been there in circumstances where, because of the Bush v. Gore litigation, there was a delay. But in practical terms, how much of a hole does it put the current administration in, and are there tangible ways in which it just makes it harder to get off the ground. 


David Frum [00:07:09] In 2001, the main impact of the truncated transition that President George W. Bush had was to slow the hiring of people who had to be Senate confirmed. I joined the administration about the 30th of January. I, of course, was not a Senate-confirmed person, I was a staffer. And we had a tremendous sense of the administration being empty, of the White House being empty. And that had some very serious, real world consequences, in particular the start of the administration. From my point of view, we were working on speeches, and we were supposed to circulate them. And later in the administration, those speeches would be seen by many, many eyes. But at the beginning, it was like there was no one guarding the inmates that we would write them and they would be seen by some staffers from the campaign, but relatively few people from the government. Until the middle of the summer, if I remember correctly, there were only two Senate confirmed people in the entire Department of Defense. 


And that unbalanced the administration in all kinds of ways, you got off to a wobbly start. And I think it had some very real world consequences for the 9/11 attacks. And especially it's hard for the administration to make a transition from campaign mode to governing mode. And even when you are a pretty experienced figure as George W. Bush was, or a very experienced one like Joe Biden, that you trust the people from the campaign most. You trust the people from the government a little less, but you need to make the transition and realize the people in the campaign can only take a president so far. Eventually, he has to rely, or she has to rely, on the professionals. And we were slow to do that, and that had some real world consequences. 


Valerie Jarrett [00:08:38] I was smiling because fortunately I had the exact opposite experience. I was one of the co-chairs of President Obama's transition, and from the day after the election, President Bush challenged his entire team, the entire cabinet, he and First Lady Laura Bush and their children to do everything humanly possible to make the transition smooth for President Obama and Vice President Biden. And from the top to the bottom from every single agency, we had full cooperation. My predecessor had me to the White House a few times, met with my transition team repeatedly, and wanted us to hit the ground running and it enabled us to move forward. We had all of our cabinet vetted and ready to go, so we were able to get them also confirmed quickly. But to your question, we had the full cooperation of the Bush administration, so there were no surprises. And if there were, that was on us because it wasn't through a lack of cooperation from them.


 And I worry that right now we're seeing it in real time these last few days, even though at a late point President Trump said, 'OK, begrudgingly, GSA can go forward and sign the memorandum with the transition,' you know that he didn't communicate to his department heads the same way President Bush did to his, you know he didn't tell his White House staff to cooperate. We heard from the Biden transition that even the Defense Department was not cooperating, and then we just saw from the folks who are now heading up the response to the COVID-19 pandemic that there is chaos, and they weren't able to put a plan in place because they didn't actually know how little had been going on, and I believe that's going to cost lives. So it has grave consequences when there isn't a smooth and orderly transition. 


Harry Litman [00:10:19] All right. Yeah, I mean, they come in and on COVID, there's sort of nothing there. And Defense Department, I think, was notably uncooperative. And to David's point, they followed the tradition of at least confirming one person, but they're right now everything is in a kind of paralysis as McConnell and Schumer try to work out sort of standing arrangement for the distribution of power in a 50-50 Senate. So any any thoughts here? I mean, David specifically mentioned the lack of confirmed agency heads. How does that affect things in very practical terms? Is there an even greater problem, as I think Valerie was hinting at, just at the absence of information until the day they came in the door. 


Dee Dee Myers [00:11:09] The absence of leadership in the various departments and agencies slows down the implementation of an agenda. And we all know that the first months are ripest time, and something we might get to later in this conversation Harry, if you want to go big, you need to go early. Certainly the Obama administration did that with health care and the Clinton administration did that in some way, so definitely slows down the rollout of the agenda. I think the Clinton transition had a slightly different perspective, which was that it was the only Democratic administration, but for four years of the previous almost three decades, and there wasn't a deep bench of people who knew how to do transitions, or had served in senior levels of government, or had been working their way through the bureaucracy in the same way. 


What we're seeing in the Bush administration is very seasoned people. Tony Blinken, the new secretary of state, was a speechwriter in the NSC when we all started the Clinton administration, he's been deeply involved in foreign policy ever since. He's a great example of the kind of seasoned professional that is going to help facilitate the transition, and can hit the ground running as soon as he's confirmed. So I do think that this administration, although beset by the problems that Valerie and David both described, will be able to move more quickly. They're going through a very complex environment, it will take a while for everyone to be approved, particularly given the Senate. He has a lot of work to do, and how it will work is unclear at this point, but it will slow down moving policy, moving legislation, one of the reasons the president is doing everything by executive order right now. 


Harry Litman [00:12:31] It's interesting, all three of you actually took up the reins from an administration of the other party, but it seems like that was less the factor than just the tone set at the top for whether to cooperate or not. I want to follow up on this point, and we've already mentioned it a couple times, which is the, again, sort of tangible impact from the early days of this 50-50 tie in the Senate. We will talk more, I'm eager to talk more about this notion that if you want to go big, you need to go early, but they start in a very delicate position. And, of course, the 50 Dems really run the spectrum to notably Joe Manchin, someone who wouldn't be so likely to go along with more progressive proposals. How are they going to balance placating the home team with trying to lure a few R over? Is it a matter of sort of trading off or just being ultra-diplomatic? What tangibly is the upshot of starting out of the gate with this 50-50 arrangement in the Senate? 


Valerie Jarrett [00:13:41] Well, 50-50 is better than what the alternative would have been if we'd lost Georgia. So I'll take 50-50 with the vice president breaking the tie any day, but it makes it more complicated. Lloyd Austin got confirmed today, I think Janet Yellen will be confirmed, I think that we will see progress while they're haggling over this. But one of President Biden's strengths is he knows that body well. He has long relationships with them, when President Obama was in office, there were many times when then-Vice President Biden went up on the Hill to try to make progress because of those relationships. And also just look at the campaign after the primary was over, he was able to rally from the most progressive Bernie Sanders to Amy Klobuchar along the spectrum within the Democratic Party to not only endorse him, but to work hard for him. So he's really good at building coalitions. 


Dee Dee Myers [00:14:31] Yeah. And I would, it's interesting because he really did something people thought he couldn't do coming out of the primaries, right? Which was to unite the Democratic Party, but he did it in some ways by moving to the left on issues like climate. And so there's been a debate sort of in the background for the last six months about whether it was possible to build coalitions in this environment, right? And the campaign was cited as an example, but that was a coalition that moved left and brought people in the center of the Democratic Party. It's going to be a different challenge altogether, and I'd be interested in David's perspective to try to both present an agenda that has some reality of unity, while keeping the Democratic Party together and being able to pick off a couple of Republicans. So it's the challenge that all Democratic presidents face, right? We have a big tent party with a lot of different perspectives, but now the rubber is going to meet the road. Can Joe Biden build the coalitions that he's been famous for? It'll stopping being a debate, it'll will be reality soon, but that's the challenge. 


David Frum [00:15:25] Here's what I would worry about. The historic way the Democrats have tended to hold their coalition together is that the center of the party gets to make the big decisions about taxing and spending. And then there are concessions to the left of the party on identity issues and cultural issues. The problem he's got, is he's now facing a Republican Party that really only cares about identity issues and cultural issues. And so the things that in Biden's mind are, he's giving the big checks to the middle, he's giving the small checks to the left, but it's the small checks that are going to get the Republicans really, really excited. So, you know, on his first day, one of the things that President Biden did was to issue an executive order about gender identity in women's sports. I'm sure that Joe Biden would consider this not even a top 50 issue facing the United States. But guess what? Fox News and talk radio consider it like the number two issue facing the United States. And so he's going to be in an environment where just the grammar of the Republican Party is going to make it quite difficult for him to add the two or three more votes he's going to need after building the 50 votes he's supposedly got. 


Harry Litman [00:16:28] You know, that's a great point, and I'm reminded of the kind of unanticipated lambasting that Clinton took for the 'don't ask, don't tell,' which I think a lot of people might have thought in retrospect, he'd have been better off trying to do a little down the line. But it does seem to me that to date, he has done an excellent job and somewhat surprising, if you remember some of the knocks on him in the middle of the campaign of being really a unifying force within the party. But it seems to me the early signs from the Republicans are not so good. We have a really orchestrated assault for rejoining the Paris climate agreement, which was something he'd announced he was going to do, but at least some Republicans came out and criticized him in this sort of old terms of un-American and wussy or whatever they want to say. And McConnell is perhaps, as expected, really playing his leverage for not going anywhere until there's a power sharing agreement that doesn't involve the ability to get rid of the filibuster, which is a desired outcome of the progressive wing. So it does feel to me as if he's doing pretty well at keeping his 50, including Manchin, together, but less well in having the Republicans even talk a good game even so early on. Does that seem fair? 


Valerie Jarrett [00:18:02] I think it's very interesting. I think the Republicans for about two weeks, we're having a civil war among themselves, a place that they were not used to being. Trump ran a tight ship, and certainly McConnell has always written a very tight ship. And after the siege on the Capitol, we saw fractures within the party. I think they are dying to get back to making President Biden the target of their anger so that they stop squabbling with one another, because they realize how perilous that is. But look, there should be no surprise about the Paris climate accord. It was something that was important to the Obama Biden administration. And he said all along he was going to do it. He said all along he was going to rejoin the World Health Organization. He's made it clear his position on racial justice. So he has been true to his word in terms of what he's done the first two days. But one final point I'd make on this is that we all talk about the first hundred days, but what I learned on the hundred and first day is that the second hundred days are just as hard, just as challenging, all kinds of new unexpected things come your way. 


The Gulf turns into spewing oil or you name it. And the part of the challenge, and this is where I think, again, President Biden has a leg up, is having an administration that is tight enough, seasoned enough, substantively organized enough to move forward with your affirmative agenda, move depending upon what your obstacles are, but also handle the unexpected incoming. And I think this team, because they're not just players on the field, many of them have worked together, as Dee Dee said, for years. They know each other, they know the issues, and I think it gives them a real leg up to responding to the unexpected, which doesn't just come on the first hundred. It comes for the entire time. 


Dee Dee Myers [00:19:42] That is certainly hugely helpful. I do think Harry, to your point, the same way that Biden will provide a unifying target for the Republicans now, Trump provided that for the Democrats, right? And it was, you're able to bury a multitude of conflict and substantive disagreements under the guise of beating Trump. And certainly that's what happened, and it will be challenging going forward, trying to sort that out. We also, y'know Mitch McConnell was a ruthless legislative battler as majority leader, and he's showing that he's going to be exactly the same... 


Harry Litman [00:20:15] If I can interrupt, he was more than that. He was someone who set out from day one to make Obama's presidency unsuccessful. That was his stated goal, so is that going to be his stated goal for Biden? 


Dee Dee Myers [00:20:26] Without a doubt. I mean, whether he states that or not, that will be his goal. His goal is to make Biden a one term president, right? To take back the House, the Senate and the White House as quickly as possible at the midterms for the Congress, and win four years for the White House. And I don't think he'll stop at anything to try to accomplish that. Either that or he'll, he'll leave, but I don't think he's shown any any signs of doing that, so. 


Valerie Jarrett [00:20:46] That's interesting because my perspective on him is really all he cares about is his own power. I think he wouldn't mind a President Biden if he were in the majority. I think he got a bunch of judges confirmed, that's something that was really important to him, he got a lot of regulations rolled back, that was important. But I think ultimately Mitch McConnell just wants power, and he's really unhappy right now because he's going to have to share. And so I think he wants to win the Senate, and if he, if he can get the Senate and lose the House and the White House, he'd take the Senate. 


Dee Dee Myers [00:21:15] Yeah, I actually think that's right, Valerie, but I think he likes the fight. So killing the Democratic majority in the House and turning the White House back over would be satisfying. But you're right, his primary objective is the preservation and enhancement of his own power. 


Harry Litman [00:21:28] Just to follow up briefly on Dee Dee's point, which Valerie seconded about the composition of the new administration. So it's really striking that you have a kind of old guard in charge, sort of Obama-style Democrats, and that by and large, they're taken from a sort of left of center but pragmatic wing of the party, rather than the most progressive wing. But it seems that they've been charged, or that they are perhaps leaning a little more left than they did with Obama, at least out of the box. So do you perceive that as well? We have the old guard, but sort of put in the service of a slightly more progressive agenda than President Obama at least was able to carry out, given the mess that he inherited? 


Dee Dee Myers [00:22:23] I think that's definitely true. I think the center of gravity in the Democratic Party, the Democratic base, has moved left for a lot of reasons. One is sort of meta-issues that were being debated prior to 2020, late stage capitalism and the effect on workers and globalization, all those kinds of things. And then there's the events of the last year, right? The pandemic, the recession and the Black Lives Matter movements have all stripped that whatever veneer was left on inequality and growing inequality, both economic and racial, climate change, all of the things have been laid so profoundly bare in the last year. And I think you have shifts across the landscape, including in corporate America, right? Moving to toward a more ideal stakeholder capitalism as opposed to just shareholder capitalism. So I just think that there's just been tremendous movement and it's still sorting itself out, but one of the realities is that the democratic, the center of gravity in the party has shifted left. And climate change is a huge part of that, too. 


Valerie Jarrett [00:23:20] Well, I think also the circumstances, as you said Dee Dee, they have required different approaches to solve problems which are laid bare now, where there wasn't. I mean, look, there was a time when Colin Kaepernick lost his job for taking a knee, a peaceful demonstration. And now you see all 50 states have people of all backgrounds, all races, all ages saying black lives matter, something that was unacceptable to even utter without coming in jeopardy eight years ago. So I think the country has shifted in that way, and I think Biden is responding accordingly. It's the old guard, but back to something really earlier that you said Dee Dee, in terms of the number of years that there have been without a Democratic administration when you all came in and the bench strength, when I was just watching Jen Psaki and Brian Deese, they were young pikes at the beginning of President Obama's campaign in 2007, and now they're holding their own in the briefing room. And so part of what I think you see, in addition to the people who are more senior, the seasoned people, say Tony Blinken now, who was national security adviser for Vice President Biden and then came over to the president's side, is that you have this next younger generation that is moving up too. And that's just tremendously satisfying to see people who were, you know, third, fourth chair now holding their own at the podium, and I think that's good. And earned it the hard way. 


David Frum [00:24:40] At the risk of barging into somebody else's living room to rearrange the furniture and explain. 


Valerie Jarrett [00:24:44] Come on in. 


David Frum [00:24:46] When I think about the Democrats and their relation to the left, I think the risk of mixing up things that are quite different and some of which give them good advice and some of which give them bad. I mean, I think there are three drivers of what's going on in the Democratic Party and to our right, and one is dangerous. The first one is, as Valerie said, the impact of the Black Lives Matter movement on the Democratic Party. That this is an intersection of the rising power of black America, plus the impact of the technology of the smartphone, which is just it forced people to whom the police were always polite to say, 'this is what it literally looks like for other people. What do you think of this?' One of the things that the Trump administration did in all kinds of ways was take all kinds of petty cruelties or brand cruelties of American life that are sometimes invisible to people, certain people, and put them on a Jumbotron for the whole nation to watch and say, 'what do you think of this, do you like it?' 


And a lot of people are gonna say, 'no, now that I have to see it. I don't like it.' So that's something the Democrats are doing for reasons of conscience. It's also smart, because as James Clyburn and others demonstrated, there are some divisions behind those impulses. And those are not just, these are not just moral calls, there actually is real voting power. You get African-Americans revved up, excited, optimistic, convinced of their economic power, and they come to the polls. They actually deliver for you in dramatic ways, and that's why Georgia now has two Democratic senators. Here's the thing that is a mistake the Democrats are at risk of making, which is over-interpreting the Bernie Sanders 2016 campaign as a belief that there is this giant, progressive, powerful structure within their own party. And they need to distinguish, it seems to be, between the left when it means the calls by black Americans for equal treatment with this urban progressive left that gravitated to Bernie Sanders. Because you know what, they don't have divisions. Every time you put this to the test, it doesn't deliver results and you know what delivered results? The reason there's a Democratic majority in the House, it's not because of Bernie Sanders, it's because they won George H.W. Bush's former district. They won Newt Gingrich's former district. They won Eric Cantor's former district.


 And Nancy Pelosi understands that Abigail Spanberger is a much more important figure in the Democratic Party than Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. But it's hard because cable TV blinds you to that. When Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez loses her House seat for any reason, they'll just be another person. If Spanberger loses her seat, that's it. The Democratic majority in the House is gone. Do not over-interpret this urban progressive force. And the last thing, of course, is the impact of climate, which I think we need to think of as an issue outside of ideology, as we've known it till now. It is a grand new existential and moral challenge to Americans, to humanity. And it's not an ideological question. It's just a fact. And it's a dangerous fact, and then we have to have, and where politics comes in, is we now need to argue about how to deal with this fact. Do we use price mechanisms, do we use regulation, but we just need to understand it not as a political issue, but as a threat. And as COVID has taught us, these threats that the scientists warn you about as hypothetical dangers when they arrive, they arrive very fast, and they can hurt very much. 


Valerie Jarrett [00:27:43] I think one of the challenges that the Biden administration is going to have, that really we saw over the last four years and it's only going to grow even larger, is what David has eluded to, this difference between fact and fiction. And the fact that there are two different sets of facts depending upon your source of information, and that issues become political, like climate change or like wearing a mask that are actually science based. And the question, and I know the president has said he intends to try to address this when he says I'm president for all of America, part of how he does that is how do you communicate to people who we're operating on a different set of facts. Who, for example, really believe you're not a legitimate president because they've been told over and over again by somebody they trust and respect that you aren't, just like they were told over and over again that President Obama wasn't born in this country. It's ludicrous, it's not accurate, it's a lie, but when you repeat those over and over, they become, in the minds of the people who believe them, truth. And so how do you tackle that in this next era where technology is only becoming more sophisticated? Does it rest on regulating the technology companies or is it something far deeper than that? And I would say far deeper than that. 


Harry Litman [00:28:55] He said in his inaugural, 'there is truth and there are lies.' And that was a not too subtle swipe. And I'll just say one more thing to add, there's the possibility that the Democrats and progressive Democrats have both more wind at their sails and kind of unity that might prove temporary just in the reaction to Trump himself that's been such a kind of energizing force. But now he'll fade from the scene, be less a part of the kind of day to day energy of the party overall. 


It's now time to take a moment for our Sidebar feature, which explains some of the terms and relationships that are critical to the events in the news. Among the first executive actions Biden undertook was to rejoin the Paris Accord, also known as the Paris Climate Agreement, which Trump had called a hoax and had pulled the country out of in 2017. What exactly is the Paris Climate Agreement? To tell us, we are hugely fortunate to welcome one of the country's greatest living writers, George Saunders. Saunders is an American writer of short stories, essays, novellas, children's books and novels. He has been a professor in Syracuse University's creative writing program since 1997, and has won many awards for his writing, including four National Magazine Awards for Fiction, The World Fantasy Award, the Inaugural Folio Prize, and both a MacArthur and a Guggenheim Fellowship, among many others. TIME magazine named him one of the world's 100 most influential people in 2013. As a personal note, I think his volume of short stories, "The 10th of December," is one of the most beautiful, searing and compassionate collections I have ever read, and if you haven't been exposed to his writing before, it's a perfect place to start. So, George Saunders on the Paris Climate Agreement. 


George Saunders [00:31:01] What is the Paris accord and how can the U.S. rejoin it? The Paris Climate Accord is an international agreement within the United National Framework Convention on Climate Change. The agreement sets a long term goal to keep the increase in average global temperature below 2°C above pre-industrial. Each of the 196 countries that signed the accord agreed to plan and regularly report on domestic efforts to mitigate global warming. President Trump withdrew the United States from the Paris Accord on November 4th, 2020, making good on his 2016 campaign pledge and formalizing his disdain for the agreement after publicly pledging in June 2017 to quote, 'cease all implementation of the non-binding Paris Accord.' Now, President elect Biden has indicated he will rejoin the Paris Accord as one of his first acts in office. Can he do so unilaterally? Article II, Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution authorizes the president to make treaties with the advice and consent of the Senate, provided that 2/3 of the senators present concur. 


That's one way to enter a binding international agreement. But international agreements made this way are historically rare; only around 10 percent of all agreements the U.S. has entered since World War II were ratified by the Senate. The Constitution also allows a president to enter into executive agreements, which include international treaties, and Congress can, by statute, explicitly grant the president authority to enter into international agreements. Several core environmental statutes do just that. For example, the Clean Air Act directs the president to undertake to enter into international agreements to protect the stratosphere. Likewise, the Global Climate Protection Act directs the U.S. to, 'work toward multilateral agreements addressing climate change,' which gives Biden the authority to rejoin the accord. Of course, after signing back onto the Paris Accord, any actions the Biden administration takes in supporting the US's obligations under the agreement must comport with U.S. law. For Talking Feds, I'm George Saunders. 


Harry Litman [00:33:04] Thank you, George Saunders. Saunders has just published a book of essays entitled, "A Swim in a Pond in the Rain: In Which Four Russians give a Masterclass on Writing, Reading and Life." Among the many rave reviews the essays have garnered, Vanity Fair said, 'another generous, funny, and stunningly perceptive book from one of the most original and entertaining writers alive.' 


OK, so let's return to Dee Dee's point of if you want to go big, you really want to go early. With everything we've talked about, including the divided government and the prospect of an impeachment trial, does that apply here? Oh, and in addition, the delay in getting off the gun because of the lack of cooperation from the Trump administration, do you think it's still - the axiom applies that you take your first best shot now at the most important initiative, or does the administration want to establish some modicum of unity and bipartisanship before going big. As you see it, should they be going kind of big, medium or little in these first hundred days? 


Dee Dee Myers [00:35:16] I think the agenda is, really has to be driven by the pandemic, right? I mean, it's got to be big in terms of can you put more stimulus in the economy? Can you ramp up presence on the Defense Production Act yesterday to provide needles that will increase the supply of vaccines by 20%? But all of those things working together put more money in the economy, get the vaccines distributed, try to pass some additional infrastructure, green infrastructure, whatever things that will really help to rebuild the economy in a way that is equitable. I think he's going to try to do that all now, and fast, and bring as many Republicans along as he can. And I don't...we'll see whether even Mitt Romney is saying we've already done nine hundred billion dollars, we don't need any more right now. But we'll see whether he can get that done with the power sharing agreement, with a 50-50 Senate. A lot of challenges, but that's the challenge for his presidency, that will define his presidency. 


Harry Litman [00:36:07] So that's what going big is for him as opposed to, say, climate change or some racial unity initiative. 


Dee Dee Myers [00:36:15] I think those are all sub-themes of recovery, because you've got to do it in a way in order to build a long term, sustainable, resilient economy, you have to invest in climate resilient, green, clean technology. And certainly the president has proposed that. You have to have equitable recovery, we can't do what we did in 2009, right, which is just kind of paper over the inequities and hope that we don't get caught the next time. Sorry, but that's exactly what happened, right? And so the pandemic stripped the again, the veneer off. We knew there were inequalities, we didn't realize how profound they were, or we did, but we whistled past it a little bit. 


Valerie Jarrett [00:36:50] I think he has no choice but to go big. And it's because we are in a crisis. And in a sense, you should let this crisis go without the American people saying you're doing everything possible to improve their lives. And he's really good at framing everything he does through the lens of how this will help your life. Every executive order he signed on day one, going into the office on day one, was intended to demonstrate that sense of urgency, doing everything he could by executive order, and sending legislation up $1.9 trillion package. And immigration reform, something that I think perhaps people weren't expecting him to send up, is all saying to the American people, I hear your pain, and I am here to address it. And to try to put those who don't support it in the awkward box of trying to deny relief to people who are suffering in this pandemic. 


I'm in New York now, and so this was ground zero and there were a lot of the country just kind of blew off the consequences of it when it was just New York. But it's ubiquitous now. And at the tune of 40,000 people a day dying, there isn't going to be a family left that is untouched. And as long as the president is out there saying, 'I am doing this to improve your health, I'm trying to get you vaccinated, I'm trying to get you food on your table so that you're not being evicted and not defaulting on your student loans.' Those are the messages that people are talking about sitting around the table, and nobody is better at Joe Biden than knowing about those conversations. Why? Because he had them and his own family. 


David Frum [00:38:11] At the risk again of wandering into someone else's living room and rearranging the furniture, it seems to me that Democratic administrations have historically a problem distinguishing between the concept of going big and doing lots of things. Doing 10 things is not going big. If there are ten, each of them is going to be at best medium, probably small. It's hard to say this to your coalition partners, so maybe you don't say it out loud. But effective priority management means in your own mind, knowing which of the top 10 things that your party wants you to do are not included in the top three. That is something that Biden is going to I mean, pandemic is obviously job one. What else? There's maybe what is the next one? I'm not a Democrat, so he's not gonna listen to me. I would tell him climate and I if you're putting immigration on the top three, you're making a big mistake because it's the most divisive issue you can think of. It's the one that really does depend on the legislature to do anything that will get broad support. The legislature won't be there. So don't say this out loud, but have it in your own mind. That's a top ten issue, not a top three issue. My recommendation from the top three is one, pandemic and economic stabilization; second climate; third, alliance, restoration and trade. Because, this is the thing that for those of us who are a little older is going to be hard to wrap our minds around. But when I entered the Bush administration, the American economy was eight times the size of the Chinese economy. When Valerie moved into the White House and took the helm, the American economy was still three times the size of the Chinese economy. 


We are now near-peers, and that a fact that no living American has ever experienced dealing with a country that is simultaneously an economic peer and a strategic competitor. We haven't had that since maybe the Kaiser, possibly the British Empire. And it's a new thing, and it means you can't just bark orders at them the way President Trump thought you can. And it means you have to, anything you want to achieve vis a vis China, you have to do with partners. If you have a focus on China, you have to build the partnerships. That's not a decorative element, that is absolutely integral. Those would be my recommendations of what the top three things you should focus on and then the others. I mean, I would have a different immigration view, but never mind that I didn't vote - well I did vote for him. I'm not gonna vote - I'm hoping not to vote for him next time. But he just needs to be aware of what he can achieve, and what is going to grind itself into the dust and waste his impetus because he's got a lot of goodwill with him and an opportunity to be a very popular president. If six months from now, older people aren't feeling scared, kids are in school, young people are going out and dating and falling in love, people the businesses are hiring. He's going to be very popular. 


Dee Dee Myers [00:40:43] And I agree just quickly, David, that we have trouble saying no, right? And prioritizing where the everybody gets a trophy party. So it would behoove the president to really be clear about what those top priorities are and try to really drive them in these early days. And I think you're pretty spot on about what they are. Certainly the top two, and even the third is, you know, one of the things the president has done is added two seats to the National Security Council, right? One on climate and one on China. So or Asia, I guess, but still the focus being China. 


Harry Litman [00:41:09] Well, but David suggested one slightly different thing from you Dee Dee, which is you're not necessarily transparent and clear about it. I think if you think seriously about this 3 versus 10 issue, you're looking hard at maybe the brutal fact that progressives won't get any big thing that they're hoping for, like D.C. statehood or climate change, maybe. But so, is it inevitable that you're going to have serious disenchantment on the left within the party if he's going to be able to focus on the things that everyone here seems to think matter the most? 


Dee Dee Myers [00:41:47] Well, I think you can do a lot for the progressive wing addressing the pandemic and the economic crisis, right? And trying to invest in recovery in a way that's equitable. I think there's a lot you can do that both drives those priorities, but does it in a way that meets the objectives of some of the progressive wing's agenda. And the same is definitely true of climate. So it's always a balancing act. Not everybody's going to be happy, that is baked into the cake. Somebody is going to be unhappy. And I think the president did it in building his agenda during the campaign is talking about things like climate that were I mean, I think the left progressives were surprised by the president's agenda, and how inclusive it was of some of their ideas and priorities. But it's hard. 


Valerie Jarrett [00:42:24] I was also going to say we have to separate, in terms of going big, your legislative agenda from what you can do administratively. And he can multitask administratively, sign a slew of executive orders which are making the progressive part of our party very happy, rolling back regulations, a lot of what he signed in the last few days, the work has already done, and it's going to have a big impact. I think the question in terms of priorities, because I haven't found Congress able to do multitasking, is what do you really put your muscle behind to get through Congress? We put ours through the Affordable Care Act because we actually thought that would help the economy, but only after we did the Recovery Act, and if we had not done the Recovery Act, I don't think our economy would have recovered the way it did. 


And so you do have to stack them up to actually push them through Congress, but that doesn't mean you can't do an awful lot through the executive branch, which sends a strong and powerful message. And I, y'know we talked about isolating China, if we move forward with the TPP trade agreement, we would've had 11 countries against one and isolated China. And I think one of the challenges in the Democratic Party is trying to help people understand that there is bad trade and there is good trade, and that we tried to create a deal that improved the environmental standards, and improved the human rights, and improve the opportunity for US companies to do business in the biggest growth market in Asia. And that's an education we have to still do within our own party. 


Harry Litman [00:43:47] All right, let's talk a minute about the impeachment trial. There's a dynamic going on, Pelosi has now said she's going to send over the article on Monday and that will trigger, under Senate rules, that they have to immediately constitute as an impeachment court, but they can still constitute and do some other things. Generally, it seems as if the administration and the Democrats want to go quick, and McConnell wants and the Republicans want to stall a bit. If Biden and the administration could sort of lift a finger and make the whole thing go away, would they? I mean, you can't, it's super serious and there's no way of ignoring it, but how big a kind of practical impediment does it look to be posing and in particular, if it's not dispatched within a week or two? 


Valerie Jarrett [00:44:44] Well, look, what Biden has said is he's going to focus on building the economy, containing the COVID-19, focusing on the issues that people are talking about around their kitchen tables, and that that's, that's his job. It's the Senate's job once the House sends over the impeachment articles to manage the trial. I think he very much wants to get his cabinet confirmed, and so there was talk a few days ago about trying to divide it up if you had the impeachment hearing of that trial right away so that he could get those through. But I think, and this is not what way imputing to this to be what the president thinks. But part of if you were a nation of laws, then nobody can be above the law. And so I think it is way too late to turn back now. They have no choice but to go forward. 


David Frum [00:45:27] As with the first impeachment, Nancy Pelosi made it very clear from the moment she took over in 2019 that she really did not want to do an impeachment of President Trump. And all he had to do was refrain from committing obvious crimes like subtle crimes, subtle crimes. He'd have been fine, but just don't make it blatant. Don't shoot the person on Fifth Avenue, please, for all our sakes. 


Valerie Jarrett [00:45:49] Even if you think you can. 


David Frum [00:45:51] But but he couldn't refrain. The crimes are blatant, so they're stuck. I think there's a lot of focus on the costs of this process for the Democrats, and those are real, including I think above all, a president starts with a bucket of minutes like the old telephone plans, and he's going have to spend a lot of his minutes that he would rather spend on something else on this. The Senate can only meet so many minutes. But this has problems for Republicans, too, that I think don't get talked about it much. Donald Trump is not only one of the most divisive figures in the history of American politics, but someone who divides consistently leaving the other side with the bigger piece of the biscuit. He was the most unpopular first term president in the history of polling. Of the 12 major party candidates to seek the presidency since the year 2000, Donald Trump finished 10th and 11th. The only person who did worse was the party, the president running on a record of economic disaster and defeat in war, and that was John McCain in 2008. The imperative for the Republican Party is they have to find some way to make Donald Trump go away. Thank you, Twitter. Twitter helped to make them go away. And now he's going to be there. 


And it it remains this division. And one of the things I always keep in mind about the Republican Party is the division that matters most is not the division that we see between the pro-Trump Republicans and the less pro-Trump Republicans currently in Congress. The most important division is between the pro-ish Trump Republicans who are there, and the Republicans who lost in 2018 because their suburban districts educated with the women there especially, they just repudiated this guy, and they are not going to like them any better when they see again on on the screens of Congress the images of these insurrectionists with their insane plot to save Donald Trump by lynching his vice president. 


Harry Litman [00:47:34] OK, I want to take a few minutes to ask each of you if something comes to mind from your vantage point of having lived through it, what do you most fear for the new administration or what admonition would you most want to give them having been through it? What word of advice, but really word of caution would you most want them to take aboard? 


David Frum [00:48:01] For me, I would say I have two. One is beware immigration and second, conserve the president's time. Many people here who are serving him will have served previously in an administration that are very young, very vigorous, very fit. President Obama is no distress. I mean, Joe Biden is in amazing shape, but biology is biology. Take that seriously. 


Valerie Jarrett [00:48:22] Yeah, I would say along the same lines, pace yourself. I lasted eight years, there's never been a senior adviser in the history of our country that had lasted eight years. And I give it, the reason I say it happened is number one I had no choice. But number two, I was old enough to pace myself. And I think a lot of young people end up working so hard that they just burn out. And they have to learn how to get some rest, eat properly. I sound like a mom, but I saw a lot of people not do that and they didn't make it. And to their detriment, because they would have enjoyed to have been there for the entire time. And I think that applies not just to the president, but to all of them, even the young ones, particularly the young ones, because they don't have enough sense to know they do need to get some sleep. 


Dee Dee Myers [00:49:04] Yeah, and I would just kind of reiterate that, right? They were very disciplined and strategic in the campaign, right? And they obviously the pandemic created very unusual conditions, but they were very careful with the candidate's time. They understood they could do a lot with less. And so they should keep doing that. And then I think President Biden should continue to do what he does best and talk to the American people, but always put this through the lens of how people are feeling, continue that inclusive, unifying dialog. Even if things are raging in Washington, people are hurting. They're scared, their lives have been upended. They want to move forward and they want to believe that the government cares about them. And no one can do that better than Joe Biden, and so as much as the cacophony around him will distract, he needs to just keep his eye on that. 


Harry Litman [00:49:49] Yeah, my sense is that the Reagan administration did this pretty well. They did their policy stuff, but wheeled out the president to make inspiring speeches when the time came. We'll see as the time ticks off, I have the feeling that admonitions of this sort are made, but overlooked by many a new administration. We'll see if the same thing befalls the new Biden team. All right. We've just a couple minutes for our final feature of Five Words or Fewer, where we take a question from a listener, and each of us has to answer in five words or fewer. This week, we're trying something a little different, we had a listener actually send us a voice message with his question. It comes from Will G. 


Will G. [00:50:36] Hi, this is Will G., and while I aspire one day to be qualified to read the Sidebar, I'll settle for Five Words or Fewer. My question is, will any person with the last name Trump go to jail while Joe Biden is president? Thanks, and I love the show! 


Harry Litman [00:50:53] Sorry, guys. That's that's the question, and no ducking. Five words or fewer? 


Dee Dee Myers [00:50:59] Sadly, no Trumps in jail. 


Harry Litman [00:51:02] Five exactly. Man, she's good. 


David Frum [00:51:04] Civil liability his greater danger. 


Harry Litman [00:51:07] Another great one. 


Valerie Jarrett [00:51:09] Yes. 


Harry Litman [00:51:10] Don't know who, but yes. 


Thank you very much to Dee Dee, David and Valerie, and thank you very much listeners, for tuning in to Talking Feds. If you like what you've heard, please tell a friend to subscribe to us on Apple Podcasts or wherever they get their podcasts, and please take a moment to rate and review this podcast. You can follow us on Twitter @TalkingFedsPod to find out about future episodes and other Feds-related content. You can check us out on the web, talkingfeds.com , where we have full episode transcripts. And you can look to see our latest offerings on Patreon, where we post discussions about special topics exclusively for supporters. And these aren't outtakes or ad-free episodes, though we do have those there, but original one-on-one discussions with national experts about the most important topics of the day. Just in the last few days, we've posted discussions about the insurrectionists, and about the final swath of pardons with Andrew Weissman, Rachel Barkow and Chris Sampson. So there's really a wealth of great stuff there. You can go look at it to see what's there, and then decide if you'd like to subscribe. Submit your questions to questions@talkingfeds.com , whether it's for Five Words or Fewer, or general questions about the inner-workings of the legal system for our Sidebar segments. Thanks for tuning in, and don't worry: as long as you need answers, the Feds will keep talking. 


Talking Feds is produced by Jennifer Bassett and Rebecca Lowe Patton. Our editor is Justin Wright. David Lieberman and Rosie Dawn Griffin are our contributing writers. Production assistance by Matt McArdle. Our consulting producer is Andrea Carla Michaels. Thanks very much to the great George Saunders for explaining the Paris Climate Agreement. Our gratitude, as always, goes to the amazing Philip Glass, who graciously lets us use his music. Talking Feds is a production of Dalito, LLC. I'm Harry Litman, see you next time.


IMPEACHES AND CRIME

Harry Litman [00:00:06] Welcome to Talking Feds, a round table that brings together prominent former federal officials and special guests for a dynamic discussion of the most important political and legal topics of the day. I'm Harry Litman. We are finally, barely, pulling into port after a four year series of storms that nearly sank the ship of state on multiple occasions. And what a battered wreck we are: the country on lockdown for the upcoming inauguration out of fear of terrorist acts by violent extremists loyal to President Trump. Trump himself ending his term, disgraced, impeached for a second time, and awaiting trial in the Senate. 400,000 Americans dead from a virus that has been completely mismanaged, a dysfunctional political life, a middle class in economic shambles, and the country humiliated around the world by the bedlam at the Capitol. The president is going out as he came in: screaming, lying and acting like a jerk. The first president ever to be impeached twice and the first in over 150 to boycott his successor's regularly scheduled inauguration, which President elect Biden called, "one of the few things he and I have ever agreed on." 


But he has a return ticket for his second impeachment trial, which has the genuine prospect of returning the first Senate conviction of a president in US history. After a tenure in which he lied and bullied his way out of trouble again and again, the president has gotten mauled in his last days in office, and growing numbers of Republicans and Democrats are determined to keep him from ever serving in political office again. So on the one hand, we're a mess, but on the other, we've weathered the Trump years and returned an adult to the White House. Things are looking up. To work through the implications of another tumultuous week and assess where things stand at the advent of one of the most important transitions of government in US history, we have three great guests, all brilliant commentators, friends of the podcast and proven warriors for the rule of law, and they are: 


Natasha Bertrand, a.k.a. Scoop, the national security correspondent at Politico and a political analyst for NBC and MSNBC, where other writers tune in to figure out what they've been missing. Previously, a staff writer for The Atlantic, Natasha has been among the leading correspondents covering the US intelligence community and the impeachment inquiry. Natasha, thanks so much for being here. 


Natasha Bertrand [00:02:53] Thanks for having me. 


Harry Litman [00:02:55] Al Franken, the United States senator from Minnesota from 2009 to 2018, and current host of the funny, trenchant and very popular Al Franken podcast. He's also a world renowned, or certainly an Upper West Side of Manhattan renowned writer, comedian and author. Thanks very much, Senator, for returning to Talking Feds. 


Al Franken [00:03:21] My pleasure. 


Harry Litman [00:03:22] And Norm Ornstein, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, co-host of A.I.S Election Watch, a contributing editor for the National Journal and The Atlantic, and one of the country's foremost political thinkers. He has, in fact, been named one of the top 100 global thinkers for his role in diagnosing America's political dysfunction. So very apropos at the end of the age of Trump. Norm, thank you as always, for joining us. 


Norm Ornstein [00:03:53] You're welcome, Harry. As of January 1, I am actually an emeritus scholar. 


Harry Litman [00:03:57] Well, congratulations. 


Norm Ornstein [00:03:59] Yes. 


Harry Litman [00:04:00] OK, let's start with the continuing fallout from the storming of the Capitol and Norm, emeritus or not, your productive week in-week out, including this week when you've written about the shocking ease with which the terrorists were able to overpower the Capitol Police. That's going to be a subject of congressional investigation, but are we any closer to understanding it than we were nine days ago? 


Norm Ornstein [00:04:27] We may be a little bit closer to understanding it, but we're no closer to having a plan if something like this happens again, if it happened this time, that we would be assured that we could have a Congress functioning and operating. It was 19 plus years ago that we had the September 11th attacks, we have talked about what we would do with a foreign terrorist trying to attack the Capitol. United 93 was headed there, and yet we could have seen even greater mayhem and more loss of life, and we probably came closer than we should have with an attack from domestic terrorists, and that we were not prepared for it, that we have done nothing in the time since 9/11 to plan for these sorts of things is very unsettling. And the other thing I would add here is it's not just a question of whether somebody could have gotten in with a bomb and blown up the capital from inside instead of having a plane hit it, we have razor thin margins of majorities in the House and Senate. If somebody just decided to take out a selected small group of members of the House and Senate to change the majorities, which could have resulted in a very different outcome in the counting of electors, that itself would be devastating. And we don't have a plan in place to make sure that if something like that happened, it wouldn't result in mayhem. 


Natasha Bertrand [00:05:53] Yeah, and the National Guard was actually told to be prepared and to anticipate IEDs being brought into the Capitol in the days surrounding the inauguration. So things like pipe bombs, Molotov cocktails, things that were already found last week during the insurrection, they were telling the National Guard that they need to be prepared to respond to something like this, which freaked a lot of them out, frankly, because that's not part of their usual training. So we were hearing from guardsmen who were like, this is not what I expected when I, when I thought about being deployed to Washington, D.C. But it's a very serious threat. And it's surreal being in downtown D.C. right now and just seeing the presence. A lot of these warnings that they're getting also concerned the fact that these individuals are planning to come armed, heavily armed. And that's why the National Guard in turn, has now been authorized to carry arms of their own, so a lot of them are coming around M4s, M9 handguns, and they look pretty scary, but a lot of these folks don't seem to be the protesters and the insurrectionists. It's unclear what they're actually going to be deterred by that. We'll see what happens. 


Harry Litman [00:07:06] But just again, about the overwhelming of the Capitol Police. Al, you lived with them and kibitzed with them for several years as a senator. I think of them as a little bit in between a campus police staff and a real municipal staff. Do you have a sense, just from your experience with the Capitol Police of what happened? 


Al Franken [00:07:28] Well, you know, I always felt very secure there, and I always felt that these were guys who felt like more than campus cops. We've lost Capitol Police in the history of the country before. These are pretty serious law enforcement guys. Harry Reid had actually been a Capitol cop. I was very surprised by some of the reports that they weren't set for us. I don't I don't think this is their fault, though. I mean, somebody really screwed up,a number of people really screwed up. This should never have happened in the way it happened, and I don't think it's necessarily a reflection on any of them or at least on the vast, vast majority of them. 


Harry Litman [00:08:10] Norm, you actually raised the possibility, a little teaser in your USA Today article of complicity, that they were complicit?


Norm Ornstein [00:08:18] Yeah. 


Harry Litman [00:08:18] Did you mean that there's actually sort of advanced coordination with somebody in the police and the demonstrators, I should say, terrorists? 


Norm Ornstein [00:08:28] Well, we do know that there were at least a few of the police who directed some of the mob to come in, opened the doors for them, removed the minor protective barriers, took selfies. But there are other things that we know, Harry, and we're not sure where they came from. We know that many of these people had maps of the Capitol. And we know that just as one example, Jim Clyburn, the number three leader of Democrats in the House, if you've been in the Capitol, you know that there are visible offices for the speaker, the majority leader, the minority leader and the whips, but all of them also have unmarked hideaway offices on the third floor of the Capitol that have no markings on them. And what Jim Clyburn says is they went right past his official office to that hideaway. They knew somehow where the hideaway was. Now, that could have come from one of his colleagues, and we have some evidence, of course, of members of Congress violating the order not to do tours of the Capitol the day before all of this, taking some of the people who were in that mob around. But a lot of them wouldn't know where these hideaway offices are. So somebody was given them inside information, and one hopes that all of the investigations going forward, we'll find out who that was or who they were. 


Harry Litman [00:09:49] That's a really good point, because I don't think we have a strong sense, at least I don't have a strong sense of exactly who they are. At first on the television, they looked almost like kind of ragtag festival, but it became clear, it has become increasingly clear since then that whatever else they may be, they are a well-organized and very determined group of domestic terrorists. Do we have a good hold on who these guys are, how many groups they are, what kind of resources they have at their deploy? Or is that still very much completely murky? 


Natasha Bertrand [00:10:30] I think it's still a little bit murky. There was an interesting report yesterday in Yahoo about how there were large Bitcoin payments that were made to several right wing groups in advance of these riots. And obviously the funding that some of them received either to travel or to arm themselves or to organize, that's going to come under a lot of scrutiny. I think that there's definitely more to learn about that. But as of right now, it does seem like they just used whatever was at their disposal to beat cops, to enter the Capitol. They were beating them with lacrosse sticks and flagpoles and fire extinguishers that they found. And some of them did seem to have some kind of advance knowledge or some kind of understanding of what the Capitol complex looked like. 


They had maps of the tunnels, for example, in the building, but it's unclear whether they would have gotten that from members themselves or from some Capitol police who may have been involved, or if this was just stuff that they were able to kind of scrounge up on the Internet. That's still being investigated, some Democrats have hinted strongly that there was some kind of involvement by their Republican colleagues, and there's definitely a question of these tours that were being given the day before by Republicans to some groups who ended up being part of the riot at the Capitol. So all of that's going to be investigated, but I do think that the level of coordination surrounding this is still unclear. There was the Stop the Steal campaign, which was led by this right wing activist called Ali Alexander that was doing a lot of the coordinating with these groups. But how far up did that go? That's also unclear at this point. 


Al Franken [00:12:15] I just don't understand the intelligence failure. I mean, you asked me about the Capitol Police and they seem like really dedicated, nice guys. And also, by the way, I can't blame a Capitol cop for taking a picture with somebody in that situation, you're improvising. And I don't know that if taking a photo with somebody isn't calming them down. While they're taking a photo with you, they're not doing something terrible. These guys are so overwhelmed that it was ridiculous, and to me, it all points to an enormous intelligence failure by the FBI. But it seemed like the FBI had some warnings that they didn't report up the line, and I can't believe that. I didn't believe that Christopher Wray wasn't there at the first press conference. All of this seems really shoddy to me. 


Natasha Bertrand [00:13:08] Yeah, I think that this is more a failure to act on the intelligence than a failure to collect it. They had ample warning. I mean, all you really need is an Internet connection to see what they were planning and what they were talking about on these chat rooms. And the FBI did collect that kind of intelligence. 


Al Franken [00:13:25] The FBI has that, right?


Natasha Bertrand [00:13:28] Yeah, shockingly. But not only do they have access to what they were saying online, they also had confidential human sources that were feeding them information about what was potentially going to take place. The intelligence arm of Capitol Police apparently compiled their own report three days before the insurrection, specifically saying that Congress was going to be or could be at least a major target, that they wanted to attack lawmakers, that's according to The Washington Post last night. So it just there was a failure of imagination, I think, in what the law enforcement officials actually believed they would end up doing, but there was no failure of intelligence here. I mean, even reporters were sounding the alarm about this for weeks and weeks beforehand. And with regard to the Capitol Police taking selfies and all of that, I think you're definitely in survival mode in that instance, and there was another police officer that was wearing a MAGA hat who said that he put it on because he was trying to steer clear of violence from the protesters and he thought that would calm them down, but I think the bigger question obviously is like, OK, why aren't you putting handcuffs on these guys immediately? Maybe they just didn't have the resources for that. It's just, it's an open question. 


Norm Ornstein [00:14:36] I just want to add a touch of skepticism on the latter. We know that there were a number of off-duty police officers who went into the Capitol to contribute to the mayhem, holding up their IDs to say, 'I'm one of you, it's OK.' We know that police forces all over the country have been infiltrated by white supremacists, as we see in the military as well. It would be quite surprising if you didn't have at least a few of them with the Capitol Police. I do think most of the Capitol Police, the overwhelming majority who were there, were heroic in every sense of the word, they were failed by their own leadership because they didn't have the adequate equipment or the numbers. They had the same number of Capitol police that they have any time the House or Senate is in session instead of their bolstered numbers. We know that the soon to be, if not now, I guess it was as of yesterday, resigned head of the Capitol Police has said that he requested reinforcements and that the sergeants at arms in the House and Senate multiple times rejected his request. But we also know from a number of members of Congress who talked to him in advance and said this is going to be terrible. He said, we got it under control, no problem. So how much of this is a failure of imagination? 


And certainly there's a racist element here, when Black Lives Matter comes to demonstrate with what is clearly a peaceful demonstration, they bring them out in big forces with riot gear. This time because it's a bunch of non-black demonstrators, it was there just you know, they talk a good game, but they never do anything or how much of it was something that is more troubling. And I hope we get an investigation that will deal with this. I can tell you that the Capitol Police have been, as a leadership team, totally arrogant. That Tim Ryan, who chairs the subcommittee that oversees them, has tried over a long period of time to get any information or data from them, and they basically brush it aside. I know outside groups think progress, Daniel Schuman did an investigation of them. The more questions he asked, the more pushback he got. And then he got a communication from the head of the Capitol Police basically saying, 'we have you on our radar,' which is pretty intimidating thing. So there are real questions to be raised here about the leadership of this organization. 


Harry Litman [00:17:04] Let me just say a few things from a law enforcement perspective. First, Norm and everyone, you're 100 percent right and it's just not clear. It's what an investigation needs to answer and will answer I think, whether the kind of friendly approach to the terrorists was a little bit spontaneous and an audible on the ground, or whether it did come down from on high. In terms of the intel and what Scoop is saying, it always looks terrible and they're excoriated after and there is a huge problem of coordination among law enforcement. But often it's a matter of too much intel, not not enough. And we now we're able to discriminate going forward and see what should have been plucked out like Mohammed Atta's flying lessons, but they look different in real time. But one silver lining or whatever you want to call it here is, as Norm mentioned, the confidential informants, the groups. What we do know, and I know this from my own experience, they are intensely social and I mean chatter on social media, et cetera. And it's going to facilitate the task of federal law enforcement to find people to talk and be able to do the whole scorecard line up of what happened. But it's going to be, I think, a very big investigation. All right. Everyone's now, of course, hunkered down for the inauguration and all over the country, Natasha described the presence in Washington, but what about the possibility of something heinous happening in a state capital? 


Al Franken [00:18:42] I think that the big headline here is just how big this MAGA anti-government force, terrorist force is in this country. That was a lot of people, and also how coordinated they were and how widespread they are around the country. And so, yeah, we have 50 state capitols. I don't think I'd have the capitol open that day and have it pretty locked up. But this, just the extent to which we have right wing militia and these anti-government forces and that this kind of almost succeeded on this one day. And it seemed like it was a real concentration of the leaders of those different militias there in one spot, which again takes me to the intelligence. And as Natasha was saying, all you gotta do is be online. It just seems like a giant, giant intelligence failure and a giant failure of imagination. But as far as these on Inauguration Day, this is going to be tense is Lansing, it's going to be tense in Sacramento, it's going to be in St. Paul all over the place. I was in D.C., I was in the Capitol. I saw more troops there than I had seen when I was in Iraq or Afghanistan. I mean it is an armed city, and I feel like they know what they're doing and I feel like it's going to be safe, but my goodness, this is very disturbing from the standpoint of where this shining city on a hill seems to have a lot of security problems. 


Harry Litman [00:20:22] That's exactly it. And by the way, of course, that's the goal of terrorists, right? Everybody's jumpy and cities are in the kind of military lockdown, that's part of how they achieve it. So have we seen a pivot point here in this country, are we becoming like Israel or other countries that just have to adjust to the permanent presence of terrorists within? Guards at the school and restaurants and the like? 


Natasha Bertrand [00:20:49] Well, I'll just say that I was speaking to Mark Hertling and he, with regard to the IED thing and all of the threats that we've seen to the Capitol and other state capitals, and in recent weeks, he was pondering the question of whether this indicates that there's a new insurgency in this country and whether that means that, to your point, we need to now anticipate cycles of violence moving forward just from this kind of latent insurgent movement of the right wing and the white supremacists. And that's not going to go away during Joe Biden's administration. So I think it's a really interesting question. You know, I don't want people to freak out and think that all of a sudden we're in the middle of an insurgency in the United States, but at the same time, these actors have proven themselves to be very violent, whether it's plotting to kidnap the governor of Michigan, whether it's storming the Capitol and very willing to die, frankly, a lot of these people say that they are not afraid of death, and that they will fight to the death for this country. And maybe that's all bluster, but at the same time, it's what you'd expect to hear from a terrorist, right? So I think that it's definitely a question worth considering in how we address it moving forward. 


Norm Ornstein [00:22:11] Y'know, I think there are two groups, or maybe more, of people here. Some are those who have been motivated by Trump and in other ways, just as Natasha said, to believe that this is a noble cause and that they're trying to save the country from the left wingers who are illicitly taking it over because the election was stolen. Some are white supremacists who've been angling for a long time with the wish of creating a race war, having the country go down in flames so that whites can reclaim their place in the society. You have a group of people, some of whom have talked openly about it, who stormed the Capitol, who thought that because the president had told them to do it, there wouldn't be any difficulty here at all, that what they were doing was absolutely legal because the president told them to do it. 


But also, if they got into trouble, he'd pardon them anyhow. Now they're calling for specific pardons for it. We talk about intelligence failures, thank God we had intelligence that uncovered the plot that could have kidnaped and assassinated the governor of Michigan. And also keep in mind that the Republicans in the House who voted for impeachment now are saying that they're wearing body armor and that they're frightened for their own lives. So this is not a problem that's going away in the next few weeks. I would say, and we'll get to this topic in more detail, that if Trump is taken out of the picture, at least through a conviction, that one of the great incitements, the threats that could lead to greater violence, will at least be reduced a little bit because much of this is coming right from Donald Trump and his direct acolytes. 


Harry Litman [00:23:53] Yeah, I think that's the big question. And has he let the genie out of the bottle and it's more powerful than he is? If Trump were out of the picture, would they just be moving on because they're indomitable? Or is it really tied to his particular case as a charismatic leader? 


Al Franken [00:24:10] And let's give credit where credit is due. And that is not just Donald Trump, but to politicians like Ted Cruz and Hawley and Ron Johnson and these Republicans who kept insisting that the election had been stolen, and for no reason, against all evidence that we saw. And there's a plot against Whitmer because of COVID. We were told by Ted Cruz in July, I believe that well, you watch on November 4th, no one will talk about COVID again, this is all just a hoax. And you heard that from the president as well. And so this has been a project of Donald Trump's. And, you know, it's no wonder there was a riot on the date that it was, it was the day that they were going to certify President elect Biden and they were there to stop the steal. There is no steal. There was nothing. By the way, Cruz and Holly and the rest of them, Ron Johnson, they need to have ethics investigations against them, they should be expelled. They caused this. They knew what they were doing. 


Harry Litman [00:25:37] It's now time to take a moment for our sidebar feature, which explains an important topic in the news, that topic today is whether a presidential pardon, in particular Trump's of Manafort, Steel, Stone and other cronies who may have inculpatory information about him could also constitute a crime. And to explain it to us, we're really fortunate to welcome Rob Marshall. Rob is an Academy Award nominated film and theater director, producer and choreographer, best known for directing the film version of Chicago, Mary Poppins Returns and Into the Woods. He's received many awards for his direction, including the Directors Guild of America Award for Outstanding Directing of a feature film for Chicago, along with five Tony Award nominations and four Primetime Emmy Awards. So I give you Rob Marshall and can a presidential pardon be a criminal offense as well. 


Rob Marshall [00:26:40] Can a presidential pardon constitute an obstruction of justice? Since losing the election, President Trump has gone on a pardon spree. His pardons have included Roger Stone, Paul Manafort and others involved in special counsel Robert Mueller's investigation of the Trump campaign's relationship with Russia in 2016. Could those pardons themselves be crimes, specifically attempts to obstruct justice? The short answer is yes. Trump has arguably used the pardon power to influence the course of justice during his administration. He has seemingly dangled pardons, i.e. held out the possibility of a pardon to encourage witnesses not to provide damaging testimony against him. He has also executed the related commutation power in the case of Roger Stone, to remove the pressure that might have induced Stone to cooperate. Trump has argued that a presidential pardon cannot constitute an obstruction of justice. His lawyers wrote special counsel Robert Mueller in connection with the Russia probe that he couldn't have obstructed justice given his constitutional power to simply terminate the inquiry or exercise his power to pardon. Trump himself weighed in on Twitter with his legal opinion that, 'as has been stated by numerous legal scholars, I have the absolute right to pardon myself. But why would I do that when I have done nothing wrong?' 


But Trump's position doesn't hold water. Obstruction of justice under federal law occurs when a person has specific intent to interfere with a pending proceeding, such as a trial or grand jury investigation. It's clear that a president can have the corrupt intent. Imagine, for example, that Trump had made express private statements to Manafort of the sort that his public statements hinted at, offering him a pardon if he refused to cooperate with a probe of the president, and both parties proceed to follow through with the bargain. So if a president satisfies all the elements of obstruction of justice, especially corrupt intent, he can be guilty of the crime. To hold otherwise would be to assert that the president is above the law. It would also contradict history: Richard Nixon was impeached for obstruction of justice, for ordering the FBI to stand down on the investigation of the Watergate burglars and paying off the defendants to keep them quiet. Of course, the case of the president can present challenging legal and practical questions of enforcement, but that's a separate question. And in any event, in Trump's case, an indictment for obstructing justice would come after he leaves office. For Talking Feds, I'm Rob Marshall. 


Harry Litman [00:29:15] Thank you very much, Rob Marshall, for explaining whether a presidential pardon can also be a criminal offense. Rob is currently directing and producing the new live action version of The Little Mermaid set to release in July 2021.  


Let's talk a minute about the president, because we had an impeachment of a president this week, the fourth ever, half of them belonging to Trump. First, what was this 25th Amendment? Was it a gambit? Everyone knew that Mike Pence wasn't going to go that route, but they served it up first. What were the tactics there? 


Norm Ornstein [00:30:47] One thing is, there were three ways to get Trump out of there for the final 10 days where he had the full powers and has the full powers of the presidency. The first and most clean way is just to have him resign. I think when Mitch McConnell said, well, you know, I'm kind of open on the impeachment issue and I will let my members decide, that was much more to try and get Trump to get him out of there, which would serve his own interests as well as those of the country. The second, which is also a fairly clean way, is the 25th Amendment, which is at least for a period of time, the vice president and a majority of the cabinet could push him aside, even if he objected that there's a time frame for Congress to either put him back or keep him away. And while it wasn't going to happen, I think that Nancy Pelosi had a very sound political strategy, which is to say, we'll give you 24 hours to do your duty, and if you don't, then we have no choice but to move forward. So, of course, Pence wasn't going to do it, although he had every reason to do it after Trump came so close to getting him killed. 


Harry Litman [00:31:59] It does seem like Trump is so alienated from everyone in the party now, that there is no figure like Goldwater to Nixon in '74 to walk up and have a quiet talk with him. 


Norm Ornstein [00:32:14] I think the one figure who will, when all of this is over, claim that he did that is Lindsey Graham. And Lindsey Graham is going to try to erase the stain that he has. So many of these people are like Lady Macbeth, 'out, out, damned spot.' And that stain is not going away, but Lindsey is going to say, look, I understood how horrible he was, but I knew that if I played golf with him and I sucked up to him and I said all these things about him that I could whisper in his ear and he would listen to me, and that's ridiculous. But he's going to try and do that. But you're absolutely right, Trump has deliberately surrounded himself with nothing but sycophants. And you could see by the fact that as he's on his way out of office, who does he bring into the White House to consult with? The My Pillow guy who's telling him with his talking points, you can do martial law and you can find ways to get around this and keep Biden from becoming president. And that's where we are in the final days of this sorry episode in American history. Sad to say, like Al and me, he's a Minnesotan. It's a crappy pillow, too. 


Al Franken [00:33:28] I don't know if it's a good pillow or not. I haven't tried the pillow. Might be a good pillow. 


Harry Litman [00:33:33] All right. What are the complications for Trump that, though - so now we're going have a trial after he's out. I don't see any pardons happening of the insurrectionists, for example. What's it going to look like and how does he defend it when he has to be an ex-president on trial? 


Norm Ornstein [00:33:53] I am so hoping he comes in to testify. That would be the end of him. So I would say there are a few questions here that we don't have answers to yet. One, when will Nancy Pelosi send the impeachment to the Senate? She has some real leeway here, and waiting a little bit is a smart move. 


Harry Litman [00:34:13] Because? 


Norm Ornstein [00:34:14] Well, one, it would be a good move to get through, at least in the early days when there is a Democratic majority that can control the hearings and the floor votes for his top nominees, cabinet, subcabinet and others, to move those through as quickly as they possibly can before you do this. Second, some of these investigations are going to go forward without being done by the Senate that will give us perhaps more damning information about the role that Trump himself played in this, and others may talk more about it. We may learn of coordination that he did with members of Congress like Paul Gosar, Andy Biggs and Mo Brooks, maybe with Josh Hawley and Ted Cruz and some others, that would add to the momentum for having a conviction. At the same time, you can't wait forever. But once you start, you can spend a period of time in a trial with investigations. And remember that as we wait, he's been impeached. If he pardons material witnesses to his trial in the Senate, not only are they at best. Highly questionable, clearly obstruction of justice, but it puts the spotlight on them so that when they're called to testify in the Senate, they have no Fifth Amendment protection and they are under threat of perjury, and we may get more information there. Waiting a period of time to see what he does on that front also is not a bad idea. 


Harry Litman [00:35:48] Is Pelosi very much coordinating with Biden? 


Norm Ornstein [00:35:51] I would be surprised if she wasn't talking to the Biden people because they've got an agenda. The first part of that agenda, and I would say that one of the most significant elements of those two elections in Georgia is the ability to move forward with his cabinet and subcabinet and other nominees instead of having them slow walked, as they would likely be, at least in some cases with McConnell. That's a really important thing for him to get moving. And at the same time, there's the question of his big COVID relief stimulus package, where they'd like to get a quick vote on it, and you may want to coordinate to make sure you can do that and not have it caught up in an impeachment trial. 


Harry Litman [00:36:31] Do they want this? It was such a serious offense, there's no way around it. I'm sure they see that. But is this an unfortunate event for Biden for getting off the dime with his initial agenda, or are they good with it for the kind of solid repudiation of Trump? 


Natasha Bertrand [00:36:51] Personally I think it takes some of the pressure off of, say, a Biden Justice Department to open cases into Trump. I don't know. I think that there's been conflicting ideas about how aggressively Biden should push for accountability and investigations of Trump and his family and things like that. And so I think that letting Congress do it and letting the Senate hold a trial is probably something that Biden would be inclined towards, especially because they're trying to work out a system whereby there would be confirmation hearings in the morning and then Senate trial of Trump later on in the day/in the evening. So they're trying to work out a system where they can walk and chew gum at the same time here. Yes, it is kind of a distraction, but also it might actually work to the White House's favor because they don't have to get caught up in a potential executive branch investigation into Trump and his family. 


Al Franken [00:37:52] I've heard a lot of walking and chew gum kind of comments, and sometimes I, maybe I misunderstand the aphorism or saying. To me, when you say someone can't walk and chew gum at the same time, that's saying they're really stupid, because walking is very easy and so is chewing gum. Everybody on the planet, almost everybody can walk, and almost everybody can chew gum. It's hard to do an impeachment, and it's hard to do... 


Natasha Bertrand [00:38:23] I didn't make up the analogy! 


Al Franken [00:38:24] I'm just saying, I've heard it a lot. It's like, why can't they do the impeachment and the COVID thing? Well... 


Norm Ornstein [00:38:29] That's a piercing point. 


Al Franken [00:38:33] Sometimes a cliche gets turned on its head. Having an impeachment and at the same time doing at 1.9 trillion dollar COVID package, while at the same time confirming your appointments. That's, that's harder than walking and chewing gum. That's all I'm saying. 


Harry Litman [00:38:52] Yeah. So we're more like being on a unicycle and juggling, but also they can do it. But at what consequence? 


Norm Ornstein [00:39:03] You know, there's one other point to make, though, Harry. If you're going to take the long view from the Biden administration, you've got a 2022 election ahead, and it is critical for you that you don't have it come out the way midterms normally do, where the party of the president loses. The Republicans are vulnerable in the Senate. And an impeachment trial is no wonderful thing for those Republicans, they have a deeply divided party. A Pew poll, which is a very good one that just came out, shows Trump's approval at 29 percent, which is the lowest ever for a president leaving office. But remember that 29 percent is basically the hard core of Republicans who are with Trump no matter what, and there are a whole lot of others who are now appalled by what happened. You have Republicans who are going to have to confront the reality of a president who incited a mob to insurrection, and that's going to be very tough for them and divisive for them as well. So there is a tough, pragmatic political side to this where you are not going to be terribly unhappy that you have a minority party with its own house divided. 


Harry Litman [00:40:15] Yeah, that's a great point, and it makes them have to stand up and be counted on this. All right. You know, we've touched on this in the last discussion, but it's a pretty big-ticket item on its own, that is the 140-plus members of the House of Representatives and the 12 or so led by Cruz and Hawley in the Senate apparently are being charged with potentially aiding the terrorists. But then more broadly, all of those who embrace the big lie, they really are at the core of the problem. So let me serve up an argument by Joe Lockhart, who says, 'lost in the impeachment debate was this whole big lie, and the baseless claim remains the primary source of domestic discord and potential future violence and political chaos. So until the president and Republicans are forced to reckon with that and presumably repudiate it, there's very little chance that our politics can or will return to the pre-Trump era.' I just wanted to ask you to react to that, because there's a lot of force. I do think the big lie propels it, but I also don't see most of the people who propagated it really doing a mea culpa. They'll just try to paper it over or forget about it. 


Norm Ornstein [00:41:40] I'm skeptical that we're... 


Al Franken [00:41:42] I'm not sure they have a real motivation to admit there are, because if you look at the percentage of Republicans who believe the lie, it's sufficient in the polling that I've seen. 


Harry Litman [00:41:56] Still. One more point to add, Norm, because you made this point about the 29 percent, but of course, that might translate their immediate calculations will be at the primary stage and that might translate to 60 percent, 70 percent of Republicans still. And they might decide to tack in that direction for 2022. 


Norm Ornstein [00:42:17] This has been a problem for the Republican Party. It was a problem because they had this rogue guy who put them in the wrong place. And once he's gone, we can be back to where we were and business as usual. But there's another reality with most Republicans in the House and at least some in the Senate: this is not a traditional political party, Harry. It's a cult. It was a cult before Trump where the motivating factor for so many members, even doing things that they knew were ridiculous and wrong, was the fear of being shunned or excommunicated. That's still there, but now you have a whole lot of true believers. The House Republican conference has probably no more than two dozen members who understand how bad this has been, and how awful Trump is, and the rest, a whole lot of them believe it and others are scared to death of that primary. 


And we know that a significant number of them are scared to death for their own physical safety. Now, does that change? Is there going to be some epiphany here? No. What McConnell is counting on is that by the time you get to 2022, that the Republicans who were turned off by Trump will revert to their tribal identity and will, as so many of them did in votes for the House and Senate this time, even if they voted against Trump and they'll be back in line, and that the Trump people will be past it and that they can use a kind of campaign where they say you can't let those evil Democrats who are socialists and will destroy our way of life continue without a check and balance. That's the gamble here, but the fact is the party has gone so far down the cult path that it is not coming back any time soon. 


Natasha Bertrand [00:44:04] Well, and don't forget, the Trump family is not going anywhere either. Ivanka is already positioning herself to run against Marco Rubio in Florida and Don Jr. is thinking about running for office. Laura Trump is also apparently positioning herself to run for elected office in North Carolina. I don't think that Donald Trump himself is going to run again in 2024 especially, this is part of the reason why so many Democrats feel it's so important to have this impeachment trial because it will bar him from running again for office if he is convicted, but these - the Trump children, Ivanka, anyway, are being kind of groomed to be the white washed face of the Trump family moving forward and carrying on that legacy. And I think that there are, given the name recognition, they stand a chance. So I think that a lot of Republicans also don't want to completely distance themselves because they could be ascendant in two or four years. 


Harry Litman [00:45:03] So all three of you think, if I, if I hear it right, that even if Trump himself is disabled by a vote post impeachment or a criminal conviction that keeps him from running, you think the overall effect on the, on the political divide is marginal? That fair? You think this plague remains on our house as long as the House of Trump is active. 


Natasha Bertrand [00:45:30] I think so. 


Norm Ornstein [00:45:32] That remains to be seen. 


Al Franken [00:45:33] I think you have to pay some attention to how completely discredited Trump is in the eyes of the Republican Party, which is comprised of a lot of his followers. And I don't, I think the jury is out on - literally on that right now, that I don't know whether he, a very Trumpian landing on his feet happens. 


Norm Ornstein [00:45:58] I think there's some serious legal jeopardy for the Trump kids. We know that Ivanka and Don Jr. should have been convicted a long time ago, that it was only because Cy Vance Jr., the D.A., basically overruled his own staff with what appears to be pretty ironclad evidence that they misled and bilked people who were trying to buy condos in one of their buildings in Soho, and subsequently to his decision not to prosecute, he got a $10,000 contribution from Trump's lawyer, Mark Kassovitz, for his campaign. I don't think he's going to do that again because he's got a tough opponent next year. And their business dealings are just like their father's: reckless in a belief that they could get away with almost anything. So they may fight face serious legal jeopardy in New York and that could sidetrack them. At the same time, Florida, which after all, elected Ron DeSantis, which has the villages, which has all of these people in Miami-Dade who voted for Trump. If I were Marco Rubio, I'd be very nervous. If Ivanka Trump does not get prosecuted, does not end up with some kind of sentence, she could win. She can certainly beat him in a primary and very possibly win. 


So I'm not entirely certain that the Trumps are going to be out of the picture. I would say that the reason Donald Trump wants to run again, not with any intention of actually running, is because that's one of his major income sources, now that his own brand has been soiled and so many of his suppliers and enablers in the business are moving away from it, they'll pull in a huge amount in contributions that he can use for almost any purpose that he wants. At the same time, it's not just taking away his ability to run again, if he gets convicted and they strip him of the perks of the former president, the huge sum of money that he could use, a million dollars a year in travel, a big staff, and all the money we know he's taken from taxpayers already by overcharging the Secret Service for golf carts while he's golfing for accommodations and meals, tens of millions of dollars that have gone right into the Trump coffers, that's what he's counting on as well. So there's, there are other reasons to get him not just convicted, but to strip away his ability to run and his ability to bilk the taxpayers. 


Harry Litman [00:48:25] So that's the question. Selfies disabled, will people still have to kiss his ring because he'll have the power to primary them? Or will that really be the cutting in half anyway of Trump's influence on the Republican national scene? 


Norm Ornstein [00:48:44] Donald Trump is a marketing genius, that's the one thing that he has instinctively. And my guess is he will market himself as a martyr, even if he has to cope with terrible legal problems in New York and maybe even Georgia, and that some share of the public, a significant share of Republicans will believe that and will stick with him enough that there will be Republicans in Congress who feel like it's in their own interest to kiss his ring or some other part of his large anatomy. So he's not going to go away completely, even though for the vast majority of Americans, I believe he will be utterly discredited and beyond any doubt is going to go down as the worst president in American history. And I would say one final thing, which is when the dust settles at some point on the pandemic, the misconduct of Trump and those in his administration, that resulted in hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths, of terrible mayhem because of the mental trauma that will follow, because of the physical trauma for millions with the aftermath of having gotten COVID, that is going to be a stain on him forever that will come close to equaling the stain from his misconduct as president more generally. 


Al Franken [00:50:11] I agree with Norm. It's just hard to fathom him because I've always thought from the time he said, "I like people who weren't captured," I thought that was the end of him, and I just have been wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong. What's amazing is, sort of did he have it all the way to the end and then on January 6, just finally blow it? And that's my question. It's, it's either one way or the other. And I don't know what the answer is. 


Harry Litman [00:50:42] I just wanted to follow up on the money point. You're totally right, like for this scandal, this big lie itself, he's raised like three hundred plus million dollars to toy around with. But we're going to find out, I think, fairly soon, he either is or isn't in real financial extremis. He may in fact, have way more money due than he can actually raise, and part of all his motivations might turn out to have been trying to stay slightly ahead of the debt collectors. If that's the case, I think it will come home within the next few months. 


Norm Ornstein [00:51:22] One other final point to Harry on that front. Remember that there is a whole lot of evidence, probably some of it really damning and incriminating, in the bowels of the White House in deep freeze and elsewhere that we hope he and his minions will not be able to destroy. We know that they have these recordings that he did from The Situation Room with foreign leaders that were so unsettling to them that they took the unprecedented step of putting them in a deep freeze. When those come out, and we may find out of a more direct collaboration with, for example, MBS in Saudi Arabia,' you protect my holdings, maybe give me another hotel. And don't worry, you can kill Khashoggi and there won't be any fallout from it.' 


Or communications with Erdogan and with Putin. And there may be things that he said or did when it comes to the child separation or some of these other areas that will be so damning that ultimately even a lot of his acolytes and supporters will have to get more distance from him. At the same time, we know now that Deutsche Bank and some of these other entities that participated in money laundering with him, once he's out of office, may want to get their own distance from him by coming up with more damning information about his collaboration with Russian mobsters and others. So there are more shoes to drop here than just the involvement in insurrection. 


Harry Litman [00:52:57] Great point. All right, we have just a few minutes for our final feature of Five Words or Fewer, where we take a question from a listener and each of us has to answer in five words or fewer. And today's question comes from Ross Levinson, and it is: 'Will trump ever again run for public office?' Five words or fewer, Natasha? 


Natasha Bertrand [00:53:21] No, but his children will. 


Harry Litman [00:53:23] That's perfect, that's five words. 


Norm Ornstein [00:53:25] Exactly five words. You nailed the landing, Natasha. 


Al Franken [00:53:28] And mine is, 'I dunno.'


Harry Litman [00:53:32] How many is that? Three or one. I'm also with Natasha. 


Thank you very much to Norm, Al and Natasha, and thank you very much, listeners, for tuning in to Talking Feds. If you like what you've heard, please tell a friend to subscribe to us on Apple Podcasts or wherever they get their podcasts, and please take a moment to rate and review this podcast. You can follow us on Twitter @TalkingFedsPod to find out about future episodes and other Feds-related content. You can check us out on the web, talkingfeds.com , where we have full episode transcripts. And you can look to see our latest offerings on Patreon, where we post discussions about special topics exclusively for supporters. Submit your questions to questions@talkingfeds.com , whether it's for Five Words or Fewer, or general questions about the inner-workings of the legal system for our Sidebar segments. Thanks for tuning in, and don't worry: as long as you need answers, the Feds will keep talking. 


Talking Feds is produced by Jennifer Bassett and Rebecca Lowe Patton. Our editor is Justin Wright. David Lieberman and Rosie Dawn Griffin are our contributing writers. Production assistance by Matt McArdle. Consulting producer: Andrea Carla Michaels. Thanks very much to Rob Marshall, Pittsburgh native and Falk School alumnus, for explaining to us how a presidential pardon can also amount to an obstruction of justice. Our gratitude, as always, to the amazing Philip Glass, who graciously lets us use his music. Talking Feds is a production of Dalito LLC. I'm Harry Litman, see you next time.


BURNING DOWN THE HOUSE

Harry Litman [00:00:06] Welcome to a very, very special episode of Talking Feds Now, in the middle of one of the most harrowing and memorable days in our lifetimes, and it's not even over yet. After a rally this morning by President Trump in support of his bunk and incendiary claim of having had the election taken from him degenerated into a frothing riot. His supporters stormed the Capitol, took possession of the Senate and House chambers, in the process, somebody was killed. We don't know exactly who. There are dozens of issues and questions that this raises, and we're here to take a quick first swipe at history, and to do it, we have three somewhat shell-shocked experts, starting with: Steve Vladeck of the University of Texas. Steve, hi. 


Steve Vladeck [00:01:03] Hello, Harry. 


Harry Litman [00:01:04] Jennifer Rodgers of Columbia and NYU. 


Jennifer Rodgers [00:01:11] Hello, good evening. 


Harry Litman [00:01:11] CNN national security analyst and senior adviser to the Biden Institute, Sam Vinograd, who brings her specialty in national security to the gathering. Sam, thanks for being here. 


Sam Vinograd [00:01:23] Thanks for having me. 


Harry Litman [00:01:25] And Andrew Weissman of Jenner and Block and NYU. And holy cow, where do we start? 


Andrew Weissmann [00:01:32] I agree. 


Harry Litman [00:01:34] All right. We're having a bizarre and somewhat conflicting accounts of what's going on with the president of the United States who supposedly has completely lost it. It's almost a 25th Amendment situation in the making before they've used it. Is that right? What the hell is up with the president, and what does it portend for the next day and weeks? 


Steve Vladeck [00:02:01] I mean, Harry, I'll jump on this grenade. I think that the odds that President Trump makes it to noon on January 20th have decreased dramatically today. And I think that's for a couple of reasons, I think there is now, I think a whole lot of momentum in the House of Representatives to impeach him again. I think there is now far more than one Republican senator who would be willing to vote to remove him just based solely on his conduct today. There's also reports coming across the wires tonight that at least some cabinet secretaries are talking about the nuclear option, which is Section four of the 25th Amendment. So, we should spend some time reflecting on the horrors of the violence of today and all of the questions it raises, but as an end game for President Trump, I mean, today was clearly a turning point and one that I think is, to my mind, long, long overdue. 


Harry Litman [00:02:53] Something totally cracked here, yes? It would take 17 Republican senators to remove him, and it just seems inconceivable that they would all try to stay in lockstep and pretend nothing had gone on or nothing too serious. I mean, a House vote would put it to them, what a position they would find themselves in. How quickly, Steve or anyone, do you think it could actually be served up? Oh, just one more. The obvious point here, this isn't for the next couple of weeks, this is because the remedy would ensure what really has to be the national imperative now that he is removed from public life going forward. 


Sam Vinograd [00:03:34] Well, can I just jump in? Because while this discussion is incredibly important and I think it is possible that we see the 25th Amendment invoked, for all intents and purposes, President Trump is being stripped of his presidential authority. Vice President Pence very swiftly took over presidential duties on January 6th. He was the one coordinating with the Pentagon, coordinating with law enforcement, and those other kinds of engagements. Not to mention the fact that President Trump's platforms, Twitter and Facebook, have suspended his account. So in practice, President Trump is sitting in a dark room somewhere watching television while his presidential duties, not that he was really doing much before, are being taken away from him. 


Andrew Weissmann [00:04:19] I mean, there's sort of a realpolitik to this, which is this is coming on what happened in Georgia so. Well, of course, there's Trumpism is still a huge thing, and he certainly has a lot of followers, the Republicans, the sort of sane Republicans are happy to get rid of him. It opens up a slot for them if he, in fact, is impeached and his power is diminished just by what happened in Georgia, which was really sort of a remarkable turn of events, which now seems like a year ago, but it was only at 2:00 in the morning last night. So there's probably a lot of mixed motives in terms of what the Republicans do, which is really aimed much more at opening up a slot for four years from now, than what they could have done during the last four years. Obviously, it's really interesting to see whether that happens, and whether it took physical violence directed at Congress to get them to wake up at a particular time when the president is most vulnerable. I think the bigger issue is like what, what effect it's really going to have on the next administration in terms of, you know, there are key issues. Who is going to get prosecuted or investigated, and you could end up in a situation where the sort of low level people who are essentially carrying out the fire that was set ablaze by Trump are actually prosecuted, and it's going to be hard not to. I mean, there were actual incendiary devices used at the Capitol, and so that, I don't see how you ignore that, and yet are you going to just do nothing with respect to the president? 


Harry Litman [00:05:56] And it's very hard to, you can't even climb up the middle. I think it goes right to the top, right? We'd be talking about seditious conspiracy, right? And for that, you need coconspirators, and we heard what Rudy Giuliani said this morning. We heard what Donald Trump Jr said, but there's nowhere to sort of work it up. It's him and his crazy band of followers, and can you really just put all of them in jail and say, 'oh, but it's just too hard for the country to prosecute Trump himself.' 


Andrew Weissmann [00:06:27] And then you go backwards and you say, 'OK, well, just remember, it was not that long ago, we were all just absolutely abuzz with what he did with this Georgia secretary of state.' It's obvious he must have done that with lots of other people, and that information is something we don't know now, but I think as soon as January 20th comes around, we're going to learn a lot more about things and the antics that he's been up to. So I actually think that the big issue is how does this sort of weigh in on the Merrick Garland decision on what to do? 


Harry Litman [00:07:00] Another little development of January 6th, right? Oh remember that? 


Steve Vladeck [00:07:04] The narrative that I think a lot of us were walking away from last night and this morning about Georgia, and I think it's actually really important to tie today back to last night, is that in many ways, Georgia portends a split in the Republican Party that I think many of us had been seeing, but not necessarily sure was actually firming up, between those Republicans who are willing to call out the white supremacy, the nationalism, the craziness, right? The folks who were not signing on to the objections to the electoral slates, and those Republicans who are all in whether for political expediency or because they're true believers. And I think today is going to harden that division. As we're recording this, we don't know yet whether Hawley and Cruz are still going to persist in their objections to slates of electors, but whether they do or not, this is a pretty powerful saw. You know, Mitch McConnell excoriating his colleagues. 


Harry Litman [00:08:00] Yeah, I mean, it might harden it, but I think it's going to change it. Look, who is now public enemy number one for Donald Trump? Mike Pence. The tweet this morning that basically completely divorced him, and now you saw how Pence conducted himself in the Senate proceeding that he was the president now. They are, they are now irreconcilably divorced. 


Steve Vladeck [00:08:26] Harry, I'm not talking about Trump specifically, I'm talking about Trumpism. If part of what Hawley and Cruz are doing is trying to position themselves in the Republican primary field for 2024, which oh, by the way, the Senate cannot just remove Trump from office, it can disqualify him from holding future office, which actually might be a boon to some of these folks. 


Harry Litman [00:08:44] It'd be great for them. 


Steve Vladeck [00:08:45] If that's the end game here, then I think the real implications beyond just the next two weeks are that maybe there is a group of more moderate, conciliatory Republican senators who actually will be willing to work with the Biden administration in a way that we wouldn't have seen because they were so unified during the tail end of the Obama administration, right? And maybe Biden's goal of actually trying to attract some five, six, seven, 10 Republican senators for at least some of his domestic agenda is actually, ironically, more attainable today than it was yesterday. 


Harry Litman [00:09:19] Well, and also because they're less afraid of him, which we've always heard as this motivating force, even though they know he's a rogue. 


Jennifer Rodgers [00:09:27] You know, it's still hard to see impeachment happening, though, for me. I just feel like it's going to be so easy for Republicans to say, 'listen, yes, he's terrible, blah, blah, blah. But, you know, he's gone in 10 days. What's the point? Let's just move along.' I just don't see getting 17 or however many of them that you need. 


Harry Litman [00:09:49] Well, so let's at least stick with that for for a little bit. I think we'd all agree with Steve that it got more like, you know, there is the 25th Amendment, there is impeachment, and we should separate impeachment and removal. There's potential criminal prosecutions that have the, one of them would have the legal effect of barring him, is it really inconceivable that he, in fact, will be legally precluded from being a political candidate in public life? Everyone see that as just a big, big, long shot? 


Jennifer Rodgers [00:10:23] I think it's a long shot. 


Andrew Weissmann [00:10:25] Yeah, I, I agree. 


Harry Litman [00:10:26] How about impeachment itself? 


Andrew Weissmann [00:10:29] I think it's a long shot, even though I think that there's a political interest that people have to do it, and obviously he's at the nadir of his power, I just think it's, it's just too short a time, and there's just going to be this sense of, if you're doing it to remove him, he's gone anyway. So that can't be the reason, and if you're doing it because you don't want him to run again, it's like, you know what, let the voters decide. I just don't, I just don't see people in the next 10 days doing that. And I actually think on the Democratic side, it's probably better to focus on like a separate issue, which is like what, there really is a rule of law issue of what do you do about the presidency when you've got a president acting like this if you don't take action? I actually think that's the bigger issue. 


Harry Litman [00:11:15] And by action, you mean criminal prosecution of the demonstrators? 


Andrew Weissmann [00:11:19] I think I'd start with, like, are you going to investigate? Let's just take the secretary of state call, I mean, the idea of like did he do this, exactly what happened and what's the back story and are there any defenses, and did he do it with other people and institutions, which I think is to me, there's so many red flags. You want to know from Barr, you want to know from the US attorney in Atlanta who resigned precipitously, and there's so many people to interview. And to me, ignoring that raises sort of enormous issues about is the presidency going to be sort of de facto above the law. 


Steve Vladeck [00:11:53] I hear all of this, and I think this is the responsible conversation about what to do with Trump, but there are anonymous officials being quoted in media reports today that Trump has, quote, "lost it." Right? There are White House advisers saying that he is not listening to anybody. He apparently banned the vice president's chief of staff from the White House today. I mean... 


Andrew Weissmann [00:12:12] Steve, when I was in the special counsel's office, we heard that, so there was 2017. We heard that in the summer of 2017. Rod Rosenstein was talking about the 25th Amendment within days of being there, so I don't think that's new. We're just seeing a different manifestation. 


Steve Vladeck [00:12:29] But Andrew, he has nothing to lose now. And that wasn't true before yesterday, right? Before yesterday, he had Georgia to lose, before yesterday he had today to lose. And I just think, you know, color me as someone who has not been a radical about removing Trump by any means necessary, but who thinks that someone in possession of the nuclear codes can do a heck of a lot of damage in 13 days. And I just, you know, I wouldn't so quickly give up the ghost that now that he literally has nothing left to do, and now that it's clear that everyone's going to turn his back on him, there's not going to lash out and some even a worse way than he did today. 


Sam Vinograd [00:13:03] Yeah, I mean, let's call a spade a spade. All these guys I'm scrolling through Twitter, I'm seeing all these folks, the national security adviser may resign. All these people that enabled President Trump are somehow agreeing that a domestic terrorist attack on our nation's capitol is a bridge too far, and at midnight hour are threatening to resign. I think the fact that we lost, that they lost Georgia plays into that, right? Trump is no longer useful to them, but we have to acknowledge the fact that if we have these resignations, you bring up the nuclear codes Steve, there is a real question about whether in these death throes of tyranny, President Trump tries to issue some highly dangerous, erratic official order, whether it's for a nuclear attack, a missile strike. There are any number of things that that could happen. Absent impeachment, absent the 25th Amendment, do the people around him either resign or fail to carry out his orders, which, by the way, they've done for four years? And so to me, one of the questions is, do we see the national security adviser? Do we see this acting SecDef? Do we see the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff fail to perform the duties of their office because they're asked to engage in unlawful activity? I think that is probably a more realistic scenario right now, and if asked to do something and if they're not willing to do it, fail to carry out those orders. 


I don't see Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff or even O'Brien at this point, Pompeo I'll leave in a different camp, launching a nuclear strike and launching a missile strike against Iran right now because President Trump is clearly off his rocker. And I'm sorry to be a cynic on this and highly pessimistic, but again, these guys have carried his water for four years and all of a sudden they're growing a spine as he is, what, 13 days away from leaving office, and he lost Georgia and is no longer useful. So I think that is probably a more realistic scenario. Last point is, we are going to see resignations. I think it is possible the national security adviser resigns and other national security officials. This was already a high risk period because of the transition to a highly vulnerable moment for our country. Add to that the fact that the transition started late, various national security agencies didn't fully participate under it, and we're under a live cyber attack. These resignations, not to mention the terrorist attack ongoing in D.C., are going to add even more disruption, an even heavier load to an already strained national security apparatus. So, as Harry knows, I am often the angel of doom. This time, I really mean it. This is a very, very dangerous period from a national security perspective, and Joe Biden is going to be inheriting a mess in that perspective. 


Andrew Weissmann [00:15:34] The one thing that I can see being sort of the counter argument is like, what's happened to DOD? And that I could see being the straw that people go, we have to take action. 


Sam Vinograd [00:15:45] I think that the acting secretary of defense has proven himself to be - this guy, Chris Miller - to be a Trump enabler, Trump loyalist, a Trump acolyte, other Trump loyalists at the Pentagon have stymied the transition to put it diplomatically. I think that today was a bridge too far, and we've heard Pentagon officials, I believe the acting secretary of defense spoke up or maybe it was the chairman. I do not see them. And the chairman spoke of previously implementing what are viewed as unlawful orders. President Trump is no longer viewed as a legitimate president, that's clear. Now, we have kind of a consensus amongst a lot of Republicans on Capitol Hill that that's true. So I don't see DOD, for example, last week and I was on air talking about potential Wag the dog military strike on Iran. I don't think that's probably going to play out right now because Trump is no longer viewed as a legitimate, lawful commander in chief. 


Harry Litman [00:16:39] I think they would actually disobey the order. And I'm basically with Steve here, I mean, any of these things would be extraordinary. But I think he is hugely weakened today in a couple of ways. First, it's been all the way through the lockstep strength of McConnell and the Senate, that it's been baffling, frustrating, craven, et cetera. But that's now gone, at a minimum there is nothing like a monolithic kind of support, and probably there's a consensus that he is really off his rocker. And then second, the Trump forces now seem like they embody domestic terrorists, proud boys, etc. and they themselves seem like part of the problem to the average American. There will be very credible voices, I saw Barry McCaffrey on TV about an hour ago truly calling for his removal. And at least, I myself think we can muddle through the next couple of weeks. But the urgency of making sure he's pithed or disabled from serving in the future I think is compelling. I mean, we have several ways to look at it, including these ragtag people who stormed the building. But we saw assaults and there's very likely to be some kind of potential culpability for the death of this woman. Even if the law enforcement fired the shot, protesters could still have criminal liability for the murder. 


Jennifer Rodgers [00:18:12] Yeah. So there are different buckets of conduct, right? That's at issue. I mean, you have the kind of standard offenses that you would find on federal property when people storm in, you know, you have property damage and breaking and entering and those sorts of crimes, right? For the rioters. You have this woman who was shot, I, we don't know yet all the facts. You have all of that, you have some injuries aside from that, and then you have the kind of different bucket of potential offenses, which are the sedition and the rebellion or insurrection type of stuff, right? Or Trump, potentially for Trump Jr., for Giuliani, for Eric Trump and other people who caused all of this, right? So, you know, I think at this point we have to have an investigation, clearly. I mean, even Lindsey Graham is calling for some sort of task force to investigate what happened. And so I don't I don't think that'll be a big decision. The question, of course, will come when you've gathered your evidence and try to figure out who you actually think you can charge. 


As you alluded to earlier, Harry, one of the statutes, 18 USC 2383 prohibiting rebellion or insurrection carries as part of its penalty, incapacitating someone convicted of that offense from ever holding office. So that is, if you could convict President Trump of that offense, then that would be one way in which we could be sure he would never return to federal office. But, you know, it's funny, we spend a lot of time thinking about whether Trump will be investigated and prosecuted for everything from tax offenses to the Ukrainian matter to this stuff with the election. And you can debate that forever, then all of a sudden today it's like, OK, well, at least in one way, it is entirely clear that he will be investigated. Obviously, we don't yet know whether he will be charged. But this, at least that question is pretty easy, I think, for Merrick Garland. He must be investigated for what happened today for sure, and I don't even think the Republican Trump types are going to complain about that one. 


Andrew Weissmann [00:20:12] So I had two points. One is there is another potential charge because there were some sort of explosive devices that seem to be used and found. And the reason I think that's important is, I'm from New York and during the Black Lives Matter protests, after the George Floyd murders, the book was thrown at various violent protesters in New York, including two really young kids who the charges are they did something terrible, which is they had Molotov cocktails and it exploded and a van was hurt. They knew that there was nobody there, but that obviously there was the risk of people being hurt. And it was the attorney general, Attorney General Barr and Richard Donahue, the then Eastern District of New York US attorney, now the DAG, who basically overruled everybody, there was a lot of dissent within the department about sort of way overcharging, and it's completely maxed out. And, of course, those are people of color, and I find today so upsetting for so many reasons, but the racism and the way in which it was handled is I mean, it's impossible not to think of it in terms of the disparity, in terms of the different types of people involved being treated so differently. 


And so when you were, Jennifer, talking about this, I was just so reminded about that case in New York where people were really upset at the way that this Department of Justice handled it. I have to say, the one thing I would say in the president's defense that makes this a little harder, not that he shouldn't be investigated, is that he was not personally breaking in. You have to tie it to him, and you have to tie the knowledge and the, not just that it was a risk that he knew about, but it's like this was really foreseeable and he wanted it to occur. So, I mean, there is a harder criminal case to be made in terms of the most serious charges, and I do think that it's something that needs to be investigated. So I'm not saying that issue I agree with, but I actually think compared to when I put my sort of prosecutors hat on, think of what do I think is more likely? I smell more blood in the Georgia secretary of state call and the suite of calls that I suspect happened like that, than I do in what happened today. As deplorable as it was. 


Jennifer Rodgers [00:22:37] Although one thing that today might do is kind of break open that dam. 


Andrew Weissmann [00:22:42] Yes. 


Jennifer Rodgers [00:22:42] And by the way, one nice piece of circumstantial evidence is the fact that it took him hours to say anything at all, even watching what was happening, right? 


Andrew Weissmann [00:22:50] Only after Biden shamed him and said, look... 


Jennifer Rodgers [00:22:53] I know, right. So that's a good piece of evidence that he really did mean for it to happen and so on. But putting that aside, I mean, the point is, I think once you start looking at this, you probably throw in some other stuff, too. And next thing you know, if you're going to bring in an indictment, why not throw in some of these other things, too, if you're already going that far? So that, that may be something that we see from this. 


Harry Litman [00:23:12] We should stress, you said knowledge, Andrew, but really, they don't have to prove that he knew it. They basically have to prove that it was, you know, sort of a risk that he knew might be run and that would suffice for, or do you disagree? 


Andrew Weissmann [00:23:28] Well, you have to show... like if the crime is breaking and entering. If the crime is destruction of federal property, if the crime is illegal possession of a firearm in D.C., you have to tie that to, he has to know that or want that to happen. 


Harry Litman [00:23:44] Well, I was actually talking about the riot itself and how that would be tied to either a seditious conspiracy charge or an inciting rebellion charge. 


Andrew Weissmann [00:23:54] Yeah, I'm just look, I'm putting my defense hat on. And, you know, what I would argue is, you know, obviously you have to do a factual investigation, but you would say there's nothing wrong with supporting a peaceful protest. Right? I mean, that's what our country is founded on. You could just hear the opening on this and... 


Harry Litman [00:24:12] You're shaking your head, Jennifer Rogers, former prosecutor? You guys gone soft. Ok, keep going. 


Jennifer Rodgers [00:24:17] Putting together the rebuttal in my head, as we speak. 


Andrew Weissmann [00:24:22] Yeah. I mean, I'm just saying, look, you have to tie it. That's always the problem with somebody who's at the top of a food chain. I mean, I've done mob cases where you, or I've done Enron, where the top person gets to have this sort of deniability, and the challenge is linking it up to that's something that they wanted to see occur. 


Harry Litman [00:24:41] All right. But I'll just repeat that this is very interesting, and I was thinking of that example because we really go toward the bottom and then boom, vault up to Trump in terms of the actors here that will sort of even matter in the investigation and how you try to put this together if you're going that route. Sam, I wanted to ask you about the international context here. I mean, we assume that people are looking in horror or maybe laughing around the world, at would seem to be pictures more appropriate to a banana republic. What about the actual, though, sort of leadership structure? What, do you have a sense of you know, how nervous are, say, the prime ministers of Europe and the, and the US allies? What's going on within that community? 


Sam Vinograd [00:25:31] Well, I will note that what we have seen today is a really historic, widespread, immediate, rapid fire condemnation by countless world leaders. Our adversaries are rejoicing right now. Countries like Russia and China have launched disinformation attacks for years to undermine the credibility of the US-led liberal democratic order. So the fact that the US capital is under armed assault in an attack incited by the president makes our adversaries quite happy because the US can no longer be taken as a credible champion for democracy. In terms of what our allies are doing, our allies have, for the most part, kept relatively quiet over the last four years as President Trump has assailed democracy here in the United States, likely out of veneration for their relationships with the United States for the past couple of centuries, and probably a little bit out of fear that Trump would respond with retribution, cut off funding and more terrorists and that kind of thing. They changed their tune today, and we saw, again, widespread condemnation from our allies. In terms of are they worried? 


I think that our allies know that Joe Biden will be president on January 20th. So I think they're aware that there will be a transition of power and that Biden will start to try to heal this country. The question that is probably kind of percolating around foreign capitals right now is, can the United States ever regain its credibility as a champion for democracy? And how long will that take? It's not like Joe Biden assumes office on January 20th and all of a sudden the United States regains its credibility. Plus, the last point is, Harry, it is a fact that the federal government will be incredibly distracted in 2021, right? We're trying to heal ourselves internally, we're dealing with COVID-19, we're dealing with the cyber attack, we're dealing with an escalation in domestic terrorism. How much credible weight does the United States have to throw around on the world stage in light of the havoc within our homeland? That, I think is probably the strategic question, so are they trying to balance against all of that? That, I think, is probably a primary focus right now. 


Steve Vladeck [00:27:45] I don't know what's going to happen in the next 13 days, but it's going to be a hell of a lot more than nothing. 


Harry Litman [00:27:49] All right. So there are dozens of questions and they'll probably be doubling every hour as this dramatic day still plays out. Hopefully, we'll be back to talk about it, but as a first swipe, thank you very much everybody. Thanks Steve and Andrew and Jen and Sam, and glad to be with you on a historic day and try to make sense of some really astonishing events. 


And thank you very much, listeners, for tuning in to Talking Feds. If you like what you've heard, please tell a friend to subscribe to us on Apple Podcasts or wherever they get their podcasts, and please take a moment to rate and review this podcast. You can follow us on Twitter @TalkingFedsPod to find out about future episodes and other Feds-related content. You can check us out on the web, talkingfeds.com , where we have full episode transcripts, and you can look to see our latest offerings on Patreon, where we post discussions about special topics exclusively for supporters. Submit your questions to questions@talkingfeds.com , whether it's for Five Words or Fewer, or general questions about the inner workings of the legal system for our Sidebar segments. Thanks for tuning in, and don't worry: as long as you need answers, the Feds will keep talking. Talking Feds is produced by Jennifer Bassett and Rebecca Lowe Patton. Our editor is Justin Wright.  David Lieberman and Rosie Dawn Griffin are our contributing writers. Production assistance by Matt McArdle. Our consulting producer is Andrea Carla Michaels. Our gratitude goes, as always, to the amazing Philip Glass, who graciously lets us use his music. Talking Feds is a production of Dalito, LLC. I'm Harry Litman, see you next time.


GEORGIA ON MY MIND

Harry Litman [00:00:06] Welcome to a special edition of Talking Feds, a roundtable that brings together prominent former federal officials and special guests for a dynamic discussion of the most important political and legal topics of the day. I'm Harry Litman. Many people are settling into a relative lull for Christmas and New Year's, but not in Georgia, where two of the most hard-fought and consequential elections in recent American political history are being waged. Both are runoff elections for the United States Senate, one pitting Republican incumbent Kelly Loeffler against Democratic challenger Raphael Warnock, the other pitting Republican incumbent David Perdue against challenger John Ossoff. Both races are currently neck and neck. Today's episode is devoted to a deep-dive into the politics, strategy and tactics that will determine who will hit the tape ahead at the finish line in the coming fortnight all-out sprint. And our dive companions are a fantastic group of political figures and strategists who together combine deep political savvy - national and local - with block by block knowledge of the Georgia landscape, and they are: 


Tom Perez, the chair of the Democratic National Committee since February 2017. Tom previously was the United States Secretary of Labor under President Obama from 2013 to 2017, and before that, the assistant attorney general for the Civil Rights Division of the Department of Justice. He was a line prosecutor in the criminal section of that division for many years, which is how we came to meet some 30 years ago. Tom, welcome to Talking Feds. 


Tom Perez [00:01:53] Great to be with you, Harry, and with all of your distinguished guests. 


Harry Litman [00:01:57] Thank you. Bob Shrum is the director of the Center for the Political Future and the Carmen H. And Louis Warshaw chair in Practical Politics at the University of Southern California. He previously was, and I quote, "the most sought after political consultant in the Democratic Party," and a high level veteran of several presidential and national campaigns. Thanks very much Bob for joining us. 


Bob Shrum [00:02:23] Glad to be here with all of you. 


Harry Litman [00:02:24] Teresa Tomlinson. She's now a partner at Hall Booth Smith PC, but she's the former mayor of Columbus, Georgia, from 2011 to 2019, where she won reelection handily. She was a candidate in the Democratic primary that John Ossoff won to face David Perdue. An eighth generation Georgian, she's repeatedly named to the list of the most influential figures in the state. Thanks for being here, Teresa. 


Teresa Tomlinson [00:02:53] Great to be here. 


Harry Litman [00:02:54] And Nikema Williams is the congresswoman elect for Georgia's 5th Congressional District, that is to say, taking over the district previously represented by John Lewis. She's also chair of the Democratic Party of Georgia, the first African-American woman to serve in that position, and is also a member of the Georgia state Senate and was one of the 16 electors for Georgia in the 2020 Electoral College. Welcome, Congresswoman-elect or thank you very much, Nikema. All right. Let's start with an important aspect of the overall dynamic of the runoffs. It strikes me that each pair of candidates has sort of opted to be joined at the hip here. Ossoff is running with a much more progressive message than in 2017 when he was a candidate, closer to Warnock, Loeffler and Perdue, both are turning backflips to emphasize their allegiance to President Trump, which is certainly not how Perdue ran. So the sense from outside is a bit of R1 and R2 against D1 and D2. Is that accurate? And if so, do you think it's wise for the Democratic candidates to be putting in like that, and I guess relatedly, do you anticipate it's going to be 2-0 or 0-2 as opposed to a split? 


Teresa Tomlinson [00:04:15] Well Harry, I'll jump in and say it's going to be 2-0, so get ready for that. And yes, the fact that they're running as a ticket is something that's highly unusual. As you know, rarely do you have two senators running at the same time, two Senate seats up like this. It's only happened, I think, twice before in special election circumstances. And so what you have here are two different candidates in the sense that Warnock, of course, is from Savannah. He is very familiar with those smaller town Georgia living, if you will. He's very comfortable there, he's campaigned there really since the beginning. John Ossoff is the national and Atlanta Georgian political phenom that you know him to be, and so he has really cranked out the younger voters. We had the highest younger voter turnout in the country on November 3rd, 21 percent. I think we can credit John Ossoff with that. 


He really mobilizes those north Atlanta suburbs where voter dense Lucy McBath district to just familiarize you a little bit with that area. And so what we have here is usually you're running a candidate that has one set of strengths. They're either playing well outside of Atlanta or they're motivating our base, and a lot of people often talk about that as people of color who have largely been overlooked in many of the Democratic political strategies in the past, but not in Georgia, because it couldn't be if you were going to be successful and then, of course, to mobilize the voter-rich Atlanta area. So now we get a twofer, we get two candidates that are both bringing their strengths to this ticket, and it's really creating a synergy, sort of a - and Bob will remember this, but certainly he was there - but kind of that Clinton/Gore, even Obama/Biden political bromance vibe going on. And it's just an exciting time here in Georgia. 


Bob Shrum [00:06:07] You know, I think that was kind of inevitable because of the nature of what's on the line here. It's not just two Senate seats, it's control of the United States Senate. I think pooling their resources, very, very good idea. And I think, and I'd be interested in how other people react to this, I think President Trump's behavior, both in terms of denying that he lost the election, engaging in a fusillade of conspiracy theories, denouncing the governor and the secretary of state, making Loeffler and Perdue walk the line of his fabulous denials. I think that's all helping the Democrats, because I think it's sending a message to those voters who voted for Joe Biden, and there are going to be more, I think, who come out maybe in this election. It's sending a message to them that if they want to see a different kind of presidency and a different kind of government that actually gets things done, then they better vote for the two Democrats. The Republicans somehow or other think that passing a skinny COVID-19 relief bill is going to turn the election around, I don't think it is at all. I think people are very clear in their own heads that it was Mitch McConnell who stopped this relief bill for months. And if you're going to get the kind of bill that Joe Biden wants to propose, then you're going to have to probably have a Democratic Senate. 


Nikema Williams [00:07:28] I think it also like, it can't be lost that Georgia does not have a lot of inelastic voters. When you look at our electorate, we have - this is a base turnout election on both sides. And so that's why you see the candidates playing to both sides. And when you look at some states, we don't have party registration, so that's for one. But when you look at states like Florida and people are talking about all of the independents, we just don't have that - our electorate is so inelastic that we don't have that large group of independents that each side is appealing to or trying to pull from. The Republicans know exactly what we know in the Democratic Party. We have to turn our people back out to vote, and there are a few people on our side who stayed home in November and we're working to turn them out too, and we're seeing the excitement on the ground. I was just driving out of the neighborhood a couple of hours ago on the way to get these new glasses checked out and I called my husband, I was like, "Leslie, I see more canvassers in the neighborhood!" 


And so, like, every day, like we get excited about canvassers in the neighborhood, and we live in southwest Atlanta, where I'm in the deepest blue of the blue district in the state, and so we know that every additional vote that we turn out in my deep blue district in metro Atlanta is a win for us, because there are still people here in my district that I've had to work to turn out who feel like they've been unlooked and unheard and unseen in the political process. So I've made it my plan and my goal as the new member from the Fifth Congressional District that we are not ceding any part of the state. I was born down in Teresa's part of the state in Columbus and came of age here, and grew up politically here in Atlanta, and I'm just, I'm all over the state making sure that we let everybody know that every vote counts and we're turning our people out. And Republicans, I don't know what they're doing over there when they get done fighting and fussing and going back and forth with each other, maybe the election will be over and we'll have our two new US senators in place, so. 


Tom Perez [00:09:21] To put a slightly finer point on - and by the way, I have a long and proud history with Nikema. We should take a step back and say, I mean, this is John Lewis's replacement and she will be the first to acknowledge the big shoes she has. But I'm hard pressed to think of someone better qualified than Nikema. She was party chair of Georgia, and we got to be very, very close then, and she's a rock star. So all of your listeners understand that we mourn the loss of John Lewis, but he gave us our marching orders and he told us that voting is the most important nonviolent act known to humankind to form a more perfect union. And to put a finer point on what Nikema just said, there's that old commercial I used to watch growing up, "this is not your father's Oldsmobile." Well, this is not your father's George either. Look at the Biden coalition, and somebody mentioned young people and the tremendous increase in the number of young voters. A million people turned out in November that didn't vote in 2016. You look at the remarkable strength in metropolitan Atlanta, and remember, the sixth congressional district was once Newt Gingrich's district, and now you have Lucy McBath winning it for a second time. In the run up to 2018, the weekend before the 2018 midterms, I was knocking doors with a woman named Jonae Wartel, who is currently running the coordinated campaign for this upcoming election. 


And we were in the Seventh Congressional District, didn't quite make it to the mountaintop there, but again, a fusion coalition, now we have elected a new colleague for Nikema. And so you have hundreds of thousands of Latino voters who are going to turn out, hundreds of thousands of AAPI voters, about 35-40,000 Native American voters, remarkable increases in African-American voters. The early turnout for the runoff of African-American voters is actually exceeding the pace of the turnout, thanks to people like Nikema. And it's an every zip code approach, yes, we've got to kick butt in metro Atlanta, no doubt about it. But, you know, you go to places like Savannah and elsewhere in Columbus, and other parts of the state and Stacey Abrams and Nikema and others understood that we've got to have an every zip code strategy, and that's what we've been doing for the last four years. We invested money at the DNC to identify best practices to turn out rural African-American voters, because you can't win statewide if you're just focused on metro Atlanta, you got to focus everywhere, and we were frankly leaving votes on the table. 


Harry Litman [00:11:58] Well, let me push back on just that point, because some elections are partly about choices, although I know that there's a lot of resources in there. But look, Biden well-outperforms not just Trump in 2016, but even Abram's in 2018 and winning the first president to win in Georgia since 1992. I hadn't realized till I was researching here, even Clinton didn't win Georgia in 96... 


Bob Shrum [00:12:25] By the way, Harry, he didn't win a majority of the vote in 92 because that was a three way race. Biden's performance here is really extraordinary. 


Harry Litman [00:12:35] Yeah, but I want to push back on, I'm sure you're going to say do both, but I'd like to try to get more nuanced or strategic. His victory really does seem to have been what The New York Times calls among the 6th District, affluent suburban, maybe even traditional Republican voters who loathe Trump. But then also Abram's success in the general turnaround in the state, to put it within the grasp, has had everything to do with some demographic changes. But really, as you were saying Nikema, increase in registration all over the state. When it's over, if it's a 2-0, there's going to be an analysis of what really mattered more. Well, let me put it this way: what are the two campaigns doing to try to at least replicate what Biden was able to do in November with respect to suburban Atlanta voters? 


Nikema Williams [00:13:31] I'm going to push back against you a little bit, just looking at where we have come from in the state. This wasn't just a one election cycle when, if you look at our numbers that have been trending from 2012 to 2014, every two years we have state legislative elections, and you look at the gains we've been making at the state legislative level, and that has been across the board, you'll see that it was not just about someone rebuking Donald Trump. Now, I will tell you, I was the first person to sign up to get him out of office, ready to vote against him, and many, many Georgians were with me. But this election, like the narrative that this was about Donald Trump and people coming out to turn it against him, it is false. Like we have been building on this cycle after cycle, and if you look at our legislative numbers, you look at Lucy McBath, we're the only red to blue flip in the country with Carolyn Bordo in the 7th Congressional District. So this has been deep organizing on the ground, cycle after cycle, across the state. 


Harry Litman [00:14:25] And would you say, you read both about changing population in the state, but then you really read about unprecedented galvanizing of voters who were always there? Do you see one or the other as being the bigger factor in the bluing trend? 


Nikema Williams [00:14:42] Our demographics have definitely shifted and that has been in our favor. However, demographics alone don't turn out voters. So it's been the organizing on the ground, the direct voter contact that we got away from at some point that we've gotten back to, and we've been building upon that. GOTV does not mean 'Go up on TV,' we got to be out in the field. We got to be talking to voters and we can't just be on TV. 


Tom Perez [00:15:05] Harry, in 2017, when I got to the DNC, we looked at the entire map and asked the question, where are the opportunities for 2020? And the two states that jumped off the map, didn't need a Ph.D. in analytics, were Arizona and Georgia. Because we lost Arizona by about three and a half points, lost Georgia by about four and a half, and we weren't fully throated in those presidential investments in those states because there was so much else going on. And so, as Nikema correctly pointed out, you've got to look at these things long term. There have been sustained investments in Georgia. There began sustained investments in Arizona, there continue to be investments in Texas, and I guarantee you, if you're still doing this podcast in '24, we're going to be talking about Texas as the next frontier of presidential battleground politics because Obama lost by like 14 in 2012, Hillary lost by eight, Joe Biden lost by five. It's the same trajectory as we see in Georgia. And the key is when you don't make it to the mountaintop, you can't pick up your marbles and go home. You've got to redouble your investments, understanding that this is a long term play. 


And that's where I take my hat off to Stacey and Nikema and the New Georgia Project and so many players in the ecosystem. And by the way, we can do this not only in places like Georgia, but we can do this in places like Mississippi and Alabama. And I know you're probably saying I'm nuts, but I'm not, because if we actually make investments now with voters building relationships, when politics becomes showing up at the black church every fourth October, pretending that you care, that's transactional politics. When politics is about in 2017, making investments in rural Georgia, in exurban Georgia, understanding better that we have remarkable numerosity among AAPIs and Latinos, but it hasn't translated into participation because we haven't made those investments. When we understand, as Nikema said, you know, she has constituents in her district who we know if we get them out, we're going to have a very high probability of success. But we haven't made those investments. That's why we did something called ''chop it up.' It was an investment talking to African-American males, because we weren't doing that enough, quite frankly, as a party. And so, it's not about just getting 90 percent of the votes, about getting 90 percent of a huge denominator. 


Nikema Williams [00:17:41] And, you know, what they were doing, Tom? Black men were staying home. It's not like they were going to vote Republican, but they were staying home. And so engagement and giving people a reason to turn out to vote and talking about the issues that matter to them turns out voters. But we have to have that engagement, and we've been doing year round engagement on the ground here in Georgia. 


Teresa Tomlinson [00:18:01] Harry, I'll just say, sing it sister to Nikema, she's absolutely right. And when you were saying earlier this is a result, The New York Times had said that this is really a result of the northern Atlanta suburbs, let me just point out that votes are fungible. You need as many of them as possible to get it done. So, for instance, the next five largest cities in the state after Atlanta and the metro Atlanta area are Columbus, Savannah, Athens, Augusta and Macon. Those five cities netted Biden. Netted Biden 267,000 votes. He won by 12,000. So if they hadn't turned out like they were supposed to, he would have been in trouble and he would have lost. So you have to play it everywhere, and there are these blue, blue, blue areas all throughout Georgia, and our object in this election and every election now going forward certainly, is to turn them all out and I'll also say, we had 76,000 new people registered since November 3rd. We've had 130-something thousand people who did not vote on November 3rd who have already voted in this runoff. And so this engagement factor is so important, and that's why we - I think Bob said this is a base election, someone said this is a base election. Usually you can sit down and do the math. How many people turned out, 40 percent of that from the general is going to be what happens in the runoff. But you don't know when you have 76,000 new people registered between the last election and this one. We have 135,000 people who didn't vote, now voting. 


Harry Litman [00:19:35] Just to be clear, that's that since November 2020. 


Teresa Tomlinson [00:19:39] Yeah, November 3rd. 


Harry Litman [00:19:40] So I want to go now to what's been the big story of turnout to date. But just one quick question. This is about the Republicans, so it's not your look out and it can be hard to psychoanalyze. But, Bob, you said something very interesting to me, which is you think that the lock step and man has been in lock step. Loeffler is boasting. 'I'm the only senator has been 100% with Trump.' They're embracing the ridiculous election narrative, you suggested that that wasn't their kind of a strategic decision in the same way Warnock and Ossoff have found it productive to lump together, but actually marching orders from Trump himself. Is that how you see it? And as a matter of Georgia politics, is it, in fact, a iffy proposition to be so associated with the president? 


Bob Shrum [00:20:30] Well, look, I think Trump held the sword of Damocles over their heads. 'If somehow you don't walk a completely straight pro-Trump line, I'll do you in.'


Harry Litman [00:20:39] Then what? I mean, 'I'll do you in this election?' 


Bob Shrum [00:20:41] 'Yeah, I'll do you in this election. Because I don't really care that much. It's not about me.' If it was about him, he'd care. So they are actually replicating the campaign that, in my view, didn't work for Trump. It's a complete appeal to a base that is too small to prevail in the end. And I think what Tom and Nikema and people like Teresa have done and Stacey Abrams actually refutes a lot of political scientists who think that organization is only good for about one percent of the vote. Now, in this election, you have Ossoff ahead by .4 and Warnock by .9, that one percent could matter. But I think what's being proven in Georgia is that contacting people and talking to people and maintaining relations with people can increase your vote and can make more than one percent difference. Message does matter. I mean, I think we'd all agree with that. And if you look at this campaign, the message, for example, about insider trading on the part of both Perdue and Loeffler, I think has some real power with people. And it actually helps to motivate turnout. And as the guy who used to make those TV ads, Nikema, and go up on television, I think that what we're seeing in Georgia and I'm seeing it from a distance, is very effective Democratic media campaigns, and very effective Democratic voter contact campaign. And I think you have to do both. 


Nikema Williams [00:22:07] I agree. We need both of them. We can't - I don't want them up on TV, and we're not sharing our message on TV, but it cannot just be go on TV. But I agree with you, we need both. And have you all seen those Warnock ads? Like the one with the dog and the poop bag? That was a good ad. 


Bob Shrum [00:22:23] Yes. 


Teresa Tomlinson [00:22:23] Yeah, that's a great ad. You know, one thing that's interesting, too, that we really, I don't think know the true effect of yet in Georgia, is that when we had the impact of COVID and we made the decision as a state, thanks to people pushing the secretary of state like Nikema and so many others at the state legislative level, to send out those absentee ballot requests. What happened was if you're over 65, once you do that, you get an absentee ballot or mail in ballot for every election within that cycle. So you were saying earlier, most people are lulling into the holiday swing of things and they wouldn't normally be voting. That goes back to the calculation of what is a turnout in a quote, 'base election.' We usually can figure that out through just math. But this time, we've got all of these people that will vote in big elections, just going to their mailboxes saying, 'oh, I got I got a mail in ballot. I think I'll fill that sucker out.' And that is why you're seeing these very high numbers, too, is because we're making it easier for people who are literally just putting it on their plate and allowing them to vote. 


Harry Litman [00:23:26] Yeah, my understanding is both older voters, mainly absentee and African-American voters, are not only voting in large numbers, but so far even outpacing the November numbers, which were impressive already. So let's go to this, because this is really, this is what you're hearing in the national reports. We have about five million people voted in 2020, that's about two thirds of the whole electorate, which is pretty high. And so far, 1.4 million people in a week or so have voted now. So that's a mammoth early voting... 


Teresa Tomlinson [00:24:01] 1.67 million as of today. 


Harry Litman [00:24:04] OK, so you're probably getting this quarter-hour by quarter-hour, alright. So 1.67, a third, a full third of at least the numbers who vote. It would be considered impressive if you had the same overall numbers as in a presidential election. So strategically, A, what does it tell you? But B, how does it, if at all, change conduct on the ground? I mean, do you - are certain things now safe and can be put away? Or do you have to redouble, what kind of tactical or strategic impact does this huge early turnout have for both sets of candidates? 


Tom Perez [00:24:40] All of the above. I mean, I think back on the success of November, roughly 20,000 Democrats living overseas who are eligible to vote in Georgia voted in Georgia. We have a program called Democrats Abroad. We actually talk to these folks, just did a fundraiser with Dems Abroad, Nikema knows them well. There were roughly 15,000 ballots that got cured. What does that mean? If somebody voted early, they forgot to sign it, or there was some other defect, and because we're running an active program contacting voters, we're able to secure those ballots. I bring all these things up because this election is going to be razor thin as well, and everything you do matters. Something like 40 or 50 thousand people who didn't vote in November have voted already. 


We're running program, as you pointed out, Harry, on voters who turned 18 after November the 3rd. When you look at these in isolation, you say, 'well, that's just 10,000, or that's just 5,000 or that's just 20,000, but as Bob knows better than anyone on this podcast, that's real money in the world of 12,600 votes or whatever the heck it was. And that's why when I say all of the above, it it is all of the above. And the beauty is that there's been, there was a really, really good Biden Harris coordinated campaign. And then you have the success in the 6th and 7th congressional districts, and then you have the energy you know, everyone's got their marching orders from John Lewis. All of these things add momentum. And then to again, put a slightly finer point on what Bob said. If this infighting among Republicans, because we have unity, unity around the themes of jobs, justice, health care, they're in a circular firing squad. 


Harry Litman [00:26:20] And what would you say the terms of it are? What are the stress pivot points of the intra-party disputes there, would you say? 


Tom Perez [00:26:27] Full disclosure, I sued Brian Camp twice when I led the Civil Rights Division. Brian Kemp is in the Hall of Fame of Voter Suppression. So let's just be really clear about that, and to watch him now in a battle with Trump is truly a remarkable thing. But again, we don't know what the impact of that will be. And for the purposes of our organizing, we're assuming that's going to be zero, because we don't want that to be any sort of source of complacency on our folks. We're pedal to the metal on all of these interventions that I've just described, because that's how Joe Biden won. When you're in a purple state and make no mistake about it, Georgia is purple, and so it's going to be a jump ball. 


Harry Litman [00:27:10] All right. Well, let me follow up. You're right, you know, who will know until after January 5th, but what teeny little effort will matter. But the last two weeks at first, I think the Rs nudged out a little, do you look at that as just sort of so much noise, or do you think the 1 percent movement here and there represents something real, if temporary on the ground? And if so, for example, why have the last three days been slightly advantageous for the Democratic candidates, whereas the previous two weeks, or is that just too fine-grained to even discuss? 


Teresa Tomlinson [00:27:48] I think it may be too fine-grained to discuss, but I will make a couple of observations. The polls in Georgia are pretty good. I mean, if you go back to 2016, 2020 this past election, they were pretty good, right on. But I will say that the Republicans do typically have a surge at the end. 


Harry Litman [00:28:04] Is that right? 


Teresa Tomlinson [00:28:05] Oh, yeah, you should... 


Harry Litman [00:28:06] How do you account for that? 


Teresa Tomlinson [00:28:07] Well, I just say you just get busy. I you know, I don't know. They just show up. I cannot tell you. Going back to Jason Carter and Michelle Nunn, how great we felt then to see on election night, we had seven point losses. It was stunning, and it just didn't seem real because we could see it on the ground, all of this happening. They just pulled that rabbit out of the hat. And that's what we're doing now, as Nikema was saying, with all that mobilizing. I think you're going to see these fluctuations, but one thing, when you said, 'what's that Republican strategy or lack thereof doing,' one thing to watch is really the inter-party attack on Kelly Loeffler, because Congressman Doug Collins, Republican, wants one of two things, he has his choice. And I see him angling for either, and that is he wants to run against a future senator Raphael Warnock, in two years. Because don't forget, Warnock is in to fill an unexpired seat of Johnny Isaacson, which will be a two year term. He'll be back up, similar to Doug Jones had to go back up. 


So Collins is thinking that's what's going to happen related to the Loeffler seat. He'd love to see Loeffler go down, and in his eyes, have a Democrat that he then can run against. He's not taking into consideration what has changed in Georgia. The other thing he's looking at is he's kind of got this running - not kind of, he does have a running feud with Kemp because Kemp thumbed his nose at Collins in a huge political gimmick, put Kelly Loeffler in the seat in order to get white women. They thought, 'oh, well, where is, we need a white woman? Where's one of those?' And they went hunting around, they found Kelly Loeffler and stuck her in there and really just pissed off Collins big time. So he's looking to primary Kemp, and that's one of the reasons I think you see everybody in Trump's inner circle throwing bombs at Kemp. They're weakening him because I think Doug Collins I mean, this is me making huge assumptions, you know, he has direct access to those folks and his designs are one of those two seats and so she is particularly, I think, vulnerable because she's being eaten away by her own party. 


Tom Perez [00:30:01] Got the endorsement of Attila the Hun, though. 


Harry Litman [00:30:04] Let me ask about her, when really all four and returning to what Bob called message, obviously she, among others, she's trying to paint Warnock as literally as a radical Marxist. The Dems are returning fire with some very strong ammo about their fishy, at best, financial transactions. The main question is this, as far as message goes, is the die cast, would you say now that all four are who they are for Georgia voters, and we turn now almost exclusively to get out the vote or other kinds of issues? Or is the work still about trying to change how Georgian voters see any of the four? 


Bob Shrum [00:30:50] I have to agree with something Tom said earlier. You have to keep doing both, you have to keep doing everything you can do. You don't want to yield on message, you don't want to assume that your message is already through and not continue to push it. So you've got to continue to push it, and at the same time, you have to do the kinds of things that Stacey Abrams and Nikema and Teresa and other people in Georgia have done so well over these last few years. So I think you push it all the way. I'm not sure which part of the message works best, whether it's the insider trading and the self dealing on the part of both Republicans, or whether it's this whole notion that if you really want to deal with a COVID crisis, you really want to get COVID relief, that you've got to get Mitch McConnell out of the way. That may be too political an argument for a lot of voters. I just don't know. 


Nikema Williams [00:31:41] So I also think when we're talking about the messaging and what they're saying on TV, don't let it be lost upon you, when Tom was talking about voter suppression and Brian Kemp, that a lot of those ads are less about changing someone's mind and a lot about keeping some people away from the polls. There is a lot of the suppressive messages there, and there's a lot of that going on as well. 


Bob Shrum [00:32:02] In those Republican ads, yeah. 


Nikema Williams [00:32:02] Like, you hear on the Democratic side, you hear our candidates talking about what they're going to do and what they want to do and how they're going to get it done, and that the two Republican candidates they're a detriment to that or a hurdle to getting our kids back to school safely, to getting our economy back on track, to getting a national response to this pandemic. But then you hear the ads that are meant to stoke fear from the Republican Party. And those are about voter suppression and voter fear and voter intimidation. 


Harry Litman [00:33:59] All right, so Georgia has become the center of the United States, if not the world. I'm wondering what that sort of feels like and if there's a downside. I think a lot of people felt that Susan Collins was able to weather the storm in Maine in November, out of a kind of resentment that there was so much national focus. But all indications are to date that that Georgia and the vote are very energized. Yesterday, Kamala Harris is there for the Dems, Ivanka Trump, and there's going to be much more of Pence, Trump himself on the 4th. The fact that is so big and national, is it a source at all of concern, would you say, or how does that characteristic play out, especially maybe outside of Atlanta? 


Teresa Tomlinson [00:34:46] I don't think that having the political big dogs, if you will, come to town are anything but just making us proud, it just makes Georgia proud that we're, that we're in the game and that people are taking us seriously. I think that that's not as important - typically in Georgia, you have to watch that the candidate not become a celebrity. And that's why you see Georgians want workhorses, not show horses. And I mean, it really does, and even those that are sort of those much-elusive people in the middle, the business Republicans who will swing to vote for someone who's more of a workhorse and more knowledgeable than somebody they think is a lightweight on the other side, there's not many of those. And in this runoff, I don't think that they would be as significant. It is a base turnout election, but I don't see that, that it is a big deal nationally, that people are watching us play negatively. I think it's playing positively in Georgia. 


Bob Shrum [00:35:42] And I think Trump cuts both ways. He helps motivate his own people to get out, but he's also a great turnout machine for Democrats. They want him gone from the White House. It's amazing to me, by the way, that he's going to show up on January 4th. So many of the votes are already going to have been cast by then, I think it's out of peak, it's what I said earlier. He doesn't care. It's not about him. If it were about him, if Governor Kemp were violating the state constitution and calling a special session of the legislature and trying to send electors, which would be absolutely illegal, I think, then maybe he'd be more into this. But right now, I think his only concern is he canceled a trip out of his frustration and anger with Kemp, and then I think people in the White House went to him and said, 'you have to go down there at least one more time.' And so he's going to go down on January 4th. 


Harry Litman [00:36:37] On the 4th, you think is almost sticking it to him? 


Bob Shrum [00:36:40] Yeah. 


Harry Litman [00:36:40] In a way. 


Nikema Williams [00:36:41] You said it's because it's not about him, but I think that's what it is, because it is only about him in his mind, that he doesn't care enough to do enough to help his own people. 


Tom Perez [00:36:50] Let me remind the group in 2019, and we never know if past is prologue, in 2019 we had two gubernatorial races in red states, Kentucky and Louisiana. The common denominator in both was that Donald Trump showed up the week of the election on behalf of the Republican candidates for governor in those states. And what happened in both those states was the Democrat won, Andy Beshear in Kentucky, John Edwards won reelection in Louisiana. And so it is interesting, and let me be clear, turnout was up in both of those races. So he did turn out his voters, but this kind of illustrates Bob's point. We went from about 900,000 voters in 2015 in Kentucky to 1.4 million and change in 2019. This is going to be a similar thing. And why do all the prominent surrogates show up? Because this is a base turnout election, and when Barack Obama does that event he did recently, that's a motivator for our side, and Kamala being there and the president-elect, et cetera. So you're going to see more folks and I leave you with this, which was in 2017. I remember talking to folks in Georgia and in Arizona and they were always saying, 'I want to be more relevant. I want people to show up in 2016. I thought we could do this.' I haven't gotten that call recently from any friends in Arizona and any friends in Georgia, folks, you have arrived. And it's our job together to make sure we do it together. 


Teresa Tomlinson [00:38:20] Bob has said about Trump, why is he coming on the 4th, and he didn't know what he's doing. I think it's because in his mind - and God knows, it's not a place anybody wants to be - but it is consistent with his theory of the case, which is nobody should be voting except on Election Day. And that's why he's showing up on the 4th, is he can't in his weird ego, he cannot act like he cares about this election until voting day. 


Bob Shrum [00:38:44] He's living in an alternative universe. 


Nikema Williams [00:38:47] But we already knew that. 


Harry Litman [00:38:48] We did. All right, we have a few minutes left, and I would just like to ask everyone to help us kind of understand what's coming down the pike and how to process the election, including on the 5th. So is there any sort of true bellwether county, either in terms of turnout or who wins and by how much? What's a good prism to apply to actually follow things in the very last days, but especially on the 5th itself? Anybody? 


Teresa Tomlinson [00:39:20] Well, you want to make sure that you've got Fulton, Clayton and DeKalb coming in and coming in really heavy, and that means you got your voters out. Those are the density, but when you start looking at, well, what's going on in those rural states, because it's the aggregation of those smaller vote totals that allow the Republicans to squeak ahead of Democrats. So you want to look at places like Peach County and see it's a smaller county, nothing that happens there is going to change the election - well, I don't know with a 12,000 vote margin, you know, it just might. The volume's not enough, but it is a wonderful bellwether to see what is going on in those more rural counties if the Republicans are able to really gin up their vote down there. If Peach County goes Democratic, then we've got the night. 


Nikema Williams [00:40:03] I agree with Teresa, Peach County is the place to watch. It was one of the 10 bellwether counties in the country. But also one of the things that I've been noticing. Y'all will all remember the night that we were talking about Joe Biden clinching Georgia, and we're watching the numbers come in from Clayton County. Clayton County is a deep, deep blue district, but have always kind of lagged in voter turnout for statewide results. And we have invested deeply into the organizing game in Clayton County. I've invested myself in the Clayton County Democratic Party. A small portion is in the 5th Congressional District, and today I got a text message from my husband who eats lives and breathes these numbers y'all, but he was like 'Nikema, Clayton County is catching up with the pace car.' So we're watching Clayton County, we're going to continue to do the work on the ground there, but watch Clayton and watch Peach. 


Tom Perez [00:40:52] And remember, it's not just what was the margin in a county, never forget the denominator. So much of what we accomplished in 2020 was the margin of a big denominator. Success in states like Georgia, and it's not limited to Georgia, is about running up the score where you can and controlling the bleed where you need to. So I'll be looking, for instance, at the 6th Congressional District, which is Lucy McBath district. The vice president, now the president-elect, won the sixth congressional district, but there was some drop off between the vice president and then, like John Ossoff, to take one example. So I'm going to be looking there to see and I know there's a lot of work being done to address that. And so if you can control the bleed in places like that, that's one of the keys to success. Everything makes a difference. Dems Abroad, carrying the votes, every single thing makes a difference. 


Harry Litman [00:41:45] Bob did you have any final thought? 


Bob Shrum [00:41:47] Yeah. The one thing we haven't mentioned, and I think we may have to watch, especially if either of these elections are very close, is the role that the lawyers and the local officials and the secretary of state are going to play, because there's already been litigation in Georgia, attempts to suppress the vote that has so far failed. But if this is a 5,000, 6,000, 8,000 vote election, there's certainly going to be a recount, we're going to wait for days afterwards to know who won. But if Teresa is right and this is 2-0, t's poetic justice because the reason we have these runoffs and the reason that, for example, Perdue didn't just outright win is because they were set up years and years and years ago to prevent African-Americans from getting elected so that if you didn't get 50 percent of the vote, and the assumption was no African-American ever could, you had to go to a runoff. And the second assumption was that people wouldn't show up in the runoff so that the Democratic voters wouldn't show up in the runoff. Well, I think that's going to be proven wrong this year. If Democrats do go 2-0, there's going to be a lot of poetic justice as well as a Democratic-controlled Senate.


Harry Litman [00:43:00] Bob, Nikema, Teresa and Tom, thank you so much. We'll be watching very, very, very, very, very closely on January 5th. I think we really feel a lot more educated now, thank you so much for doing the educating. 


Thank you very much to Tom, Bob, Teresa and Nikema, and thank you very much listeners for tuning in to Talking Feds. If you like what you've heard, please tell a friend to subscribe to us on Apple Podcasts or wherever they get their podcasts, and please take a moment to rate and review this podcast. You can follow us on Twitter, @TalkingFedsPod , to find out about future episodes and other Feds-related content. You can check us out on the web,  talkingfeds.com , where we have full episode transcripts, and you can look to see our latest offerings on Patreon, where we post discussions about special topics exclusively for supporters. Submit your questions to questions@talkingfeds.com , whether it's for Five Words or Fewer, or general questions about the inner-workings of the legal system for our Sidebar segments. Thanks for tuning in, and don't worry: as long as you need answers, the Feds will keep talking. 


Talking Feds is produced by Jennifer Bassett and Rebecca Lowe Patton. Our editor is Justin Wright. David Lieberman and Rosie Don Griffin are our contributing writers. Production assistance by Matt McArdle. Our consulting producer is Andrea Carla Michaels. Thanks very much to Noah Radil for additional research assistance for this Georgia episode. Our gratitude, as always, to the amazing Philip Glass, who graciously lets us use his music. Talking Feds as a production of Dalito, LLC. I'm Harry Litman, see you next time.


T-30... AND COUNTING

Harry Litman [00:00:00] Hey, this is Harry with a quick note about our Patreon site. There are six - count them, six - all new interviews and one on ones there since last week. We have Rich Cordray talking about the Texas lawsuit in the Supreme Court, we have Frank Figliuzzi on the big Russian hack, Juliette Kayyem on the road ahead for the vaccine, Bianca Brooks on Progressive's perspective on Biden's cabinet picks to date, Attorney General Josh Shapiro, who led the charge against the Texas lawsuit for Pennsylvania, and then finally, a whole episode unto itself, a four way conversation with Elie Honig, Katie Benner and Andrew Weissman about Bill Barr's resignation. 


Welcome to Talking Feds, a round table that brings together prominent former federal officials and special guests for a dynamic discussion of the most important political and legal topics of the day. I'm Harry Litman. To borrow the image that Juliette Kayyem proffered in the most recent episode of Talking Feds: Women at the Table, "we are living in a split screen, one side grim and one side bright." On the grim side, the virus is ravaging the country at horrifying record rates, with new cases averaging over 200,000 a day, daily deaths spiking to as many as 3,600 Americans, and ICU beds down to zero in some spots. Also, the country has fallen victim to an enormous hack by Russian actors, which federal officials characterized as, "a grave risk to the federal government." President Trump appears indifferent to both these disasters, and remains solely focused on trying to reverse the election and playing golf. 


He parted ways this week with Attorney General Bill Barr, who enraged him by not backing his rigged election fantasy, and perhaps even more by withholding the information that the Department of Justice had been investigating Hunter Biden since 2018. On the other bright side of the split screen, the first Americans received an approved vaccine. The Electoral College confirmed Joe Biden's victory, and at least many Republicans, including Mitch McConnell, finally capitulated to reality. And the Congress seemed likely to pass at least a modest stimulus to ameliorate the burdens from the virus. Oh, and as first reported by one of our guests today, the Cleveland Indians have decided to change their name, which they've used for 100 years, and Major League Baseball has decided to give official recognition to Negro League statistics. We are now at T-30 days until the Biden administration, which this week designated several important nominees but remains undecided about the closely watched attorney general position. To talk through these issues, and we'll have to talk pretty quickly, we have a fantastic group of prominent experts, beginning with:


Congressman Ted Lieu. Ted, who represents California's 33rd Congressional District in the House of Representatives. He is soon to begin his fourth term in Congress. He sits currently on the House Judiciary Committee and the House Foreign Affairs Committee, and is the co-chair of the Democratic Policy and Communications Committee. Congressman Lieu is also a former active duty officer in the US Air Force, and currently serves as a colonel in the Reserves. Welcome back to Talking Feds, Congressman Lieu. 


Ted Lieu [00:03:48] Thank you, Harry. 


Harry Litman [00:03:50] Next, Michael Schmidt, a journalist, author and correspondent for The New York Times based in Washington, as well as a national security contributor for MSNBC and NBC News. He has won two Pulitzer Prizes for his reporting, and he is the author of the recently published and highly recommended New York Times best seller "Donald Trump vs the United States: Inside the Struggle to Stop a President." He is also the ace reporter who broke the Indian story. Michael, very good to see you, and thanks for coming. 


Michael Schmidt [00:04:24] Thanks for having me. 


Harry Litman [00:04:25] And really pleased to welcome for the first time to Talking Feds, Dana Bash, CNN's chief political correspondent, Dana covers all the big political stories. She regularly serves as a moderator for CNN's political town halls, and she anchored special coverage of Election Night in America surrounding the 2020 election. In 2017, Bash launched her CNN series Badass Women of Washington, which features women from a wide range of backgrounds and generations, and shows how they have shattered glass ceilings on their way up the ranks. So pleased you could join, Dana Bash. 


Dana Bash [00:05:05] It's great to be here, thanks for having me. 


Harry Litman [00:05:07] All right. Let's jump in with the delayed and halting acceptance of Joe Biden's electoral victory. So the Electoral College voted this week, an event that in the past was a sort of obscure footnote, but this year served as the official act that brought many, though not all, hold outs over into reality, including, though, Mitch McConnell. So let me start there, after many deadlines had passed that would have been conclusive in other years, starting with the election itself, the vote of the electors on December 14th seemed to be the pivotal point. Why did McConnell choose this? What's his thinking in actually capitulating to reality now? 


Ted Lieu [00:05:53] So thank you, Harry, for that question. First, let me say what an honor it is to be on this panel with Dana and Michael. And to answer your question is, at some point you just can't ignore facts. Donald Trump and his supporters have lost well over 50 cases in court, every single case of voter fraud they have lost. And Mitch McConnell is well aware, there's no evidence to back up any of these voter fraud claims. And once the Electoral College voted, there was no effective way to reverse the election results at that point. Under the law, the only way for the Electoral College results to not take place would be for both the Senate and the House to agree on objections to then disallow the real electors and then put in fake electors. McConnell knew there was no way the Democrat-controlled House was ever going to do that. So at that point, it simply made no sense for him to keep fighting what was known to everybody at this point, which is that Joe Biden beat Donald Trump like a drum. 


Dana Bash [00:06:52] Yeah, I'll just add to that. First of all, that was quite diplomatic, Congressman. I thought you were going to go way more partisan there, but I would add to that. By waiting as long as he did as disconnected from reality as it was, he was very McConnell-like in that he had the long view. And yes, he was getting hit every single time he walked through the hallways by reporters saying, 'are you kidding me? Why can't you call him president elect, meaning Joe Biden? Why can't you acknowledge reality? Why can't you speak out against the fact that the president of the United States is undermining a free and fair election?' And he is impervious to that kind of stuff, I mean we've seen it time and time again, whether it was with Merrick Garland, blocking even him getting a hearing or the flip side of him kind of taking it all back and pushing through Amy Coney Barrett this year, I mean, that is signature, hallmark Mitch McConnell. And by having that approach, and being comfortable in his own skin with that approach, he bought himself some credibility with the base who have been listening to Fox News and other conservative media outlets, nevermind the president of the United States. 


Harry Litman [00:08:05] The only possible date that was left, the one that Trump is pointing toward is January 6th. And that's shaping up, again normally would be this obscure footnote, but shaping up to be a moment of some drama because the members of Congress will vote to recognize the electors. They've been sent to them by states and certified by the governor, but who has to preside over this pageantry? Vice President Mike Pence. So how is that going to work? Does Pence have any wiggle room, and what kind of blow will it be to Trump's continuing campaign? 


Michael Schmidt [00:08:43] The thing about Trump is, that we've seen over the past four years, is that he finds a way to test these processes and these norms and these laws in ways that we haven't seen before. So usually this is sort of a perfunctory thing. In the past, some Democrats have tried to raise issues like in 2004 around the certification of the vote, which is overseen by the vice president. But this could probably be the biggest test of it that we've ever seen, because Trump, as we've seen in the past six weeks, is willing to suspend reality to push whatever he wants. So, you know, in his mind, if this is something that his vice president is overseeing, you can't help but think he would try and lean on him in some way to do this. And it will put Pence in this ultimate decision of hewing to the norms and the laws or to the president. And obviously, this is a dance that we've seen Pence do more than anyone else over the past four years. It's the loyalty to Trump versus embracing his most outlandish rhetoric and behavior, and will sort of be that final test for Mike Pence. 


Harry Litman [00:09:54] And he's got very little wiggle room, right? He wants a future. To participate in some unconstitutional demolition job seems to me to be probably fatal for him. 


Dana Bash [00:10:06] I don't think anything's fatal for any Republican in the Trump era. I really don't. I mean, if that's true, then he would be dead and buried long ago as Donald Trump's vice president. But I would just want to add about the sort of deep cut that he's going to feel. Everybody on this call is too young to remember, and Congressman, you weren't there, but I was a young producer covering the Hill at the beginning of 2001 when I watched Al Gore preside over his own loss. And that was not just for vice president, that was his loss for the presidency to George Bush after that brutal recount in Florida. So we've seen it before, and it can get really, I mean, that wasn't so much ugly, that just was tough. It was tough to watch. 


Harry Litman [00:10:48] It was really poignant. But of course, he had already conceded. 


Ted Lieu [00:10:51] Just as a procedural matter, if Vice President Pence, in fact, does something really bizarre and sustains that objection, if there is one, what that would mean is you're going to have Republican senators and Republican members of Congress then have to go on record on how they're going to vote on this. And many of them don't really want to do that, so I think there's going to be pressure on Mike Pence to not do something strange and bizarre. 


Harry Litman [00:11:17] Yeah, that's a great point. So just to elaborate, if there's an objection by a House member that a senator, a senator has to also sign on to it, then they actually separate out and vote on that objection. It wouldn't be unless there were five successful ones or whatever, it couldn't possibly change the outcome, but it could put the heat on everybody. Well, I just I just want to double back Michael, because you're saying a moment of high drama. But I think what Dana was saying assumes that Pence is going to go ahead and play it by the book unless there's an objection. Do you see that? 


Michael Schmidt [00:11:52] That's my guess, but it's a very unusual situation. And you saw Pence in the past week as part of a rally for these Georgia Senate candidates praising Texas for filing this specious lawsuit that just got tossed out of the Supreme Court, saying God bless Texas. I don't think that Pence would go along with something like this, but at the same time, the pull of Donald Trump on Republicans is one of the greatest forces that we've seen in modern politics. And a lot of politicians who I don't think we thought would bend to Trump's will have folded very, very easily. 


Harry Litman [00:12:33] Yeah, and we're now learning today how much of a war chest he'll have as he goes into presumed exile. So what does this mean then? There's still a lot of holdouts, a lot of holdouts in both houses. Mo Brooks is kind of a leading figure. With McConnells coming into the fold, they begin to seem ridiculous, but they also begin to seem like, why change now? So do you think there's going to be substantial membership in Congress that all the way through the Biden administration holds to the view that he's illegitimate and was unfairly elected? 


Michael Schmidt [00:13:11] I don't think that you can take the Trump base, and the Republican Party's base, for that matter, in this era and feed them this diet of 'the election was stolen' for six weeks, as sustained as that has been, that argument, and just expect it will just go away and dissipate. And I think that they have really, really spooled up the party on the idea that Biden is not legitimate, and that the election was stolen. And I don't think that's just something you can just sort of turn off on January 20th and say, 'oh, we really didn't mean that. Let's just go back to normal governing.' So I think it really will set the tone here coming in, and you will have a base that believes that an election was stolen. And that's not a small thing. 


Dana Bash [00:14:01] I'll just add to that. I mean, Mike's right, of course, as always, but it's not just the steady diet that is being fed to them with media, with the president's language. The president's allies have used the levers of power that they have in Congress this past week. And I'm talking about Ron Johnson the homeland security chair, had a hearing, and the subject of the hearing was how much fraud there was in the election. It was like a hearing in another space, time and dimension. And luckily, he had Chris Krebs there who was fired because he deigned to say that the election was safe and secure. I'm sure they could use them there now that there's a major cyber attack going on, but that is case in point of what Mike was just saying, which is that there is no way that this is going to end anytime soon. Republicans feel that this is not just about feeding the Trump beast, but at this point, the beast has taken on a life of its own and it's all of their shared constituencies. 


Ted Lieu [00:15:03] I agree with what Dana and Michael are saying. There are two things going on, there is whether or not the Trump base thinks the election was stolen, versus do they understand that Joe Biden is the next president of the United States and is president, and I think they will understand that The same reason that when you look at Democrats, overwhelming majorities of Democrats believe that Russia engaged in a systematic and sweeping attack in our elections in 2016 and that affected the elections and help Donald Trump win, I believe that, it doesn't mean that I don't think Donald Trump is the commander in chief and can't execute orders and so on. I accept that. So there's still going to be these sort of two potentially contradictory ideas, but I don't think it's going to stop Joe Biden from governing. The U.S. senators and members of Congress, the Republicans are not going to not cast votes or not do their normal course operations, and just sort of do bizarre things because they don't think Joe Biden is president. I think they will accept that fact. They can still think the election was stolen, but governing is still going to happen in the next four years. 


Michael Schmidt [00:16:04] I actually want to ask the congressman a question that I've been thinking about this week, and it relates directly to what's going on. House Democrats were at the forefront of publicly prosecuting essentially the case against Donald Trump in terms of Russia from the beginning of the administration. Yeah, they've been at the forefront of that. How much do you think that the Republican Party's reaction in the past several weeks has been a reaction to that, that it was this pent up notion that they thought that the Democrats tried to delegitimize Trump and then they can then use that as an excuse to do what they're doing. I realize that that is sort of applying a level of intellectual honesty to their behavior that probably doesn't exist because they don't need things to do things. But how much do you think this is a reaction to the push against Donald Trump on Russia? 


Ted Lieu [00:16:56] That's a great question. I personally don't think very much of it has to do with impeachment. It just has to do with what Donald Trump says. Donald Trump could say the moon landing was fake, and most of his base would believe the moon landing was fake. And it's very clear to me that even if there was no impeachment, Donald Trump would be saying exactly the same things right now, that the election was stolen, that it was rigged. In fact, he was saying this before the 2016 election results happened. So I think his base just does whatever Donald Trump says on any given day. And there is just factually a difference, right? The United States Department of Justice found that Russia engaged in a sweeping, systematic attack of our elections in 2016, the Department of Justice found absolutely no widespread voter fraud in 2020. So just factually, there are massive differences. 


Dana Bash [00:17:43] I actually think that, obviously there are differences and they go on and on, but I actually think that there's something to that, Mike. I'm sure you have heard this in your reporting, as I have, who knows what people out there, average voters think. But when it comes to the president and his psyche, I've heard time and time again from people who talked to him that he is still of the belief that Democrats never let him become a legitimate president, that from the very beginning it was all about whether Russia stole it and Russia collusion and so on and so forth, and that some of this is that he just doesn't want to believe reality, but some of it is retribution, that that is actually something that he articulates. Are you hearing that also? 


Michael Schmidt [00:18:23] Yeah, at the most basic level. I mean, with Trump, you have to go to the most basic common denominator. He's a tit for tat person. If you did something to me, then I can do it to you, it's like a child on a playground. So you can see I mean, he's even said as much that this is retribution and this is getting the Democrats back for what he thought was done to him. He's not someone to easily move past anything, but he certainly never moved past the Russia question ever. I mean, he's still talking about it today. 


Harry Litman [00:18:53] Yeah, I'm often drawn to sort of third grade playground images when I think about the president. The basic question underlying everything we're talking about is, does he continue to be aggrieved and furious? That answer, I think, is clearly yes. But does it continue to be effective with his base? There's a minority view that says he fades somewhat as he's out of power, but I think nobody here holds to it. Let me ask one sort of final question going out of McConnell's embrace of reality, there was a little bit more we saw this week. They have a long standing relationship, McConnell and Biden, there's actual concrete steps to a modest stimulus. If they form a sort of working relationship, and so there's actually some kind of bipartisan conduct by the government, will that mute the Trump diehard partisans, or is this still going to be a huge part of the political calculus for the next four years? 


Ted Lieu [00:19:55] I'm actually one of those in the minority that believes that Trump, in fact, will fade. A recent poll came out and the way that was highlighted was, 'wow, look. 71 percent of the Republican base wants Donald Trump to run again.' My take on that is, he's not even out of office and already nearly 30 percent of Republicans are rejecting him. And so I think four years is awfully long time when he doesn't get to do anything, because he's no longer president to shape what's happening United States. I do think he's going to fade, that's my sense. And then in terms of what Mitch McConnell is going to do, he might view the next two years differently than the next four years. I think Mitch McConnell's calculation is going to be what sorts of things do I do that make sure that I retain control of the Senate if, in fact, they win one or both seats in Georgia. And I think that's how he's going to view it, and we'll see how he makes that calculation. 


Dana Bash [00:20:47] I don't want to be Debbie Downer, but I think that a lot has been made about the Biden McConnell relationship, and they do know each other well, and they've worked together for decades, obviously, first in the Senate as colleagues and then when Biden was vice president, but it was when it was break-glass time that they got together and made the deals for the most part. Right, Congressman? I mean, they didn't sit down at the beginning and say, 'let's work out a bipartisan solution to problem X, Y or Z or craft legislation A, B or C,' it was 'oh, my God, the tax cuts are going to expire. Let's fix it. Oh, my gosh, the government's going to shut down. Let's fix it.' And that's when they came into play. I mean, that's not nothing. It's something. But it's not as if they both have a history of Pat Moynihan bipartisan crafting of legislation. 


Ted Lieu [00:21:38] I agree, Dana, regardless of the relationship, I believe that McConnell's view of keeping and retaining power is just going to override. 


Harry Litman [00:21:47] All right. So there it stands for now. I think January 6th will be a moment of real drama and of course, the Georgia election runoffs the day before, which we'll have a special episode on next week. Let's switch gears and focus briefly on the Department of Justice. So this week, Bill Barr announced his resignation in a remarkably fulsome letter to the president. And we also learned that some sort of investigation of Hunter Biden has been going on since 2018. Let me start briefly with Barr, so he goes to this meeting about voting fraud cases that Trump's desperate to pursue and after which Trump announced Barr's resignation in a tweet. I think there's still a difference of opinion about this, did Barr walk of his own accord or did Trump basically show him the door but permit him to put it in the guise of a resignation? 


Michael Schmidt [00:22:41] I think the answer is a little bit of both. I think that Barr knew he had to get out as early as he could. He knew that Trump had lost. Barr had been attorney general before, at the end of George H.W. Bush's administration. He had gone through an incredibly tumultuous time at the end of that term because there were questions about a special counsel issues, actually, and there were pardon questions, and questions about Iran-Contra that he got himself caught up in. And he knows that the handoff is certainly, he's someone who has looked very skeptically of the handoff from the Obama administration to the Trump administration, that the transition is a fraught time. So he wanted to go early. So Republicans tried to stop him, not stop him, but convince him to stay. Then Trump got really mad at him because he said there was no election fraud. Barr sat at home last weekend, afraid that Trump was going to fire him, living in fear of Trump firing him. I still find it amazing how these people live in fear of being fired by tweet. But I guess that's the story of the Trump era. And then Barr had a meeting with him in which they basically came to an understanding that he was going to leave early. So in sort of an exchange for that, what we saw was this very laudatory letter from Barr to Trump about what a great president he was, and sort of through that dancem we got the end of Bill Barr's term as attorney general. 


Ted Lieu [00:24:04] That was one of the most bizarre resignation letters I've ever read. And it really shows you that Bill Barr was much more loyal to Donald Trump than to our country or to the Constitution. I thought it was a very embarrassing letter that no attorney general should ever write, and I'm very glad that Bill Barr is leaving. And I am very fond of Bill Barr's quote, where he said earlier that, 'history is written by the winners.'


Harry Litman [00:24:31] Yeah. I mean, it was a crazy letter and you wonder, it really is within Trump's M.O. to have basically, as Michael said, kind of insisted on it the same way he stages the cabinet meetings where everyone has to go around and praise the great leader. But let me just push back a little. Michael talked about his failure to back him on the election fantasy, something bigger, it seems to me, that he didn't back him on, he knew when he came in because it had started under Sessions that Hunter Biden was under federal investigation. That's the very nugget that Trump was pushing for from the president of the Ukraine. And in so much more effective fashion, he could have had this great talking point and Barr didn't give it to him. That's a pretty significant - or do you disagree? 


Dana Bash [00:25:22] I totally agree with you. I think the Hunter Biden thing was was huge, but honestly on this, I defer to Mike because he's so well sourced in this world. But just knowing, just even what's in public and and talking to sources for the past two years on this, or year and a half or whatever it was since impeachment, the level of obsession that the president has had with Hunter Biden, Joe Biden, and obviously it was goosed in a big way by Rudy Giuliani, and the fact that he finds out, 'oh, by the way, this is actually going on,' and that Barr apparently didn't want it to be public, which is the right thing to do. That is a sin that somebody like Barr or anybody around him just doesn't come back from. Which is not a sin, I mean he did the right thing, but from Trump's perspective. 


Ted Lieu [00:26:05] I agree with Dana, and I also want to note that people are complicated, right? It's rare that a person is 100 percent evil or 100 percent good. It's usually sort of a mix. And, yes, Barr did not find election fraud, he also kept this investigation secret. What I find even more remarkable is that everybody else who knew kept it a secret also. And so you had all these folks that knew this fact and did not disclose it, and that does give me some more hope in the Department of Justice. 


Michael Schmidt [00:26:37] The thing about Barr - and look, I think the Barr legacy is going to be complicated, and especially if he's trying to make himself look like a man of the law, he will benefit from going out with sort of these bad terms with Trump. But the thing about Barr that I see so clearly today, moreso than anything, is that bar really had the chance more than anyone to turn this thing, whether it was the Hunter Biden thing or particularly the election thing, in Trump's favor. A well-placed Barr comment in the aftermath of the election about voter fraud, I think would have given even more Republicans the cover to question the result. And I think that if Barr just dipped his toe in the water just a little bit to help Trump, it would have gone a very, very far way, and it would have made this even messier at the end. So in many ways, I think that Barr's decision not to do anything around the election may turn out to be one of the most consequential things that he did, because as we saw here, the Republican Party was willing to go along with this, and Bill Barr is someone that they look to and that they respect, and it would have given the McConnells of the world, I think, more cover to protest even more here. 


Harry Litman [00:27:53] That's right. And he dipped his toes much more in circumstances where it was no less dishonest. He'd been willing to do i, and this is a much longer topic, but I think, Michael, part of the complication, I've tried very hard to come to grips with it because I was one of the people originally who championed him. But I do think that when all is said and done, there turns out to be something special about the whole 2016 probe and Mueller that he loathes, and in some other respects that have been consequential, he tended to play it straight. It's not just the election because again, Hunter Biden he could have whispered in the president's ear any time in the last couple of years. We'll be coming back here a lot, but with the couple of months we have on the DOJ, maybe we'll ask if you guys have thoughts about the AG search. It seems to be getting more complicated, and we really are getting the impression that they're undecided and that there are crosswinds here. What do you think a fly on the wall would be hearing about these discussions? 


Ted Lieu [00:28:57] My sense of what Biden will do is appoint an attorney general that #1 he believes can get confirmed, and #2 is going to be perceived as independent. There are a number of candidates, I think, that fit those qualifications, I think this would be a very personal decision made by Biden, he's going to listen to his advisers, but at the end of the day, I think Joe Biden is going to go with his gut and make a pick. I have no idea who that's going to be. 


Dana Bash [00:29:20] I have a question for the for the crowd. Merrick Garland, Merrick Garland. What are the chances that Merrick Garland actually... 


Michael Schmidt [00:29:28] I mean it'd be a fantastic story.


Dana Bash [00:29:29] Right? 


Michael Schmidt [00:29:29] Like, you know, putting the politics of it aside, like it is really sort of has a sort of Aaron Sorkin notion to it. It's like, it's like a dramatic thing. This man was nominated to the Supreme Court. He thought he's going to be on the Supreme Court. This unprecedented thing happens where the Republicans stop him. He goes away for four or five years back to his old job, and everyone thinks, 'oh, poor Merrick Garland never got the job that he wanted.' And then he comes back to be attorney general, in a time to restore the beleaguered Justice Department. I mean, that's just a great narrative. I mean, it would be a fascinating thing to cover, and Garland, to me seems to have this you know, he's a judge and he seems to have much more of a makeup as a judge and not a partisan and watching a judge in that role as attorney general. Look, he did work in the Justice Department, he was a prosecutor, but coming at it as Judge Garland would be a refreshing story to cover. 


Harry Litman [00:30:26] I just have to interject that, I mean, he did more than punch a ticket there. I worked very closely with him down the hall, but he did it for four years. And, yes, he's - I mean, he was sort of judicious in his own way or a total, total rule of law guy. But he is a paragon of excellence. Sort of once in a generation guy, anyone who's ever worked with him would think so. And he will, I think if he's nominated, you're exactly right about the fight, but there will be Republicans on the D.C. Circuit who say he is a total straight-shooter. I think the issue will more be on the left, people who think that Doug Jones or, if he's even in play any more, Deval Patrick would be stronger on civil rights, or people who think that from having been a centrist and applying criminal law, which is conservative, right, that he won't be progressive enough. That's where I think the flack will come on his side. 


Dana Bash [00:31:23] And you have to replace Garland on the bench. 


Harry Litman [00:31:25] There's that, too. So you want to know, as in so many other things, what's going to happen on the 5th in Georgia, but you won't know. He can't wait that long. 


It's now time to take a moment for our Sidebar feature, which explains some of the terms and relationships that are foundational to events in the news. Today, we're going to explain a topic of great importance in these next 30 days: namely, burrowing. When an outgoing administration tries to install some of its political appointees, who 'burrow in' to career positions. And to read about it, we welcome Josh Siegel. Josh Siegel is a writer, co-executive producer, comic book writer and occasional actor known for his work on 30 Rock, The Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt and the fabulous, The Good Place. In addition to producing and writing for The Good Place, you may recognize Josh in his role as the recurring character and nemesis Glenn on the show. 


Josh Siegal [00:32:28] Can Trump install his political employees in career government positions? There are two broad types of employees who make up the executive branch workforce: political appointees and career employees. Political appointees align the work of executive branch departments with the administration's policy views. They serve in positions that involve policy determinations or require a close and confidential relationship with the department or agency head and other top officials. These usually include the highest officials in each agency, as well as selected policy advisers. Political appointees can be selected on the basis of politics and without regard for their knowledge, skill or experience, but their tenure usually ends when the administration leaves office. 


On the other hand, career employees form the backbone of the federal civil service that operates government without regard to the president and cabinet. Their selection is based on merit and without political influence, following an open and fair competitive process. Depending on level, career employees are protected by various merit systems to ensure that they are not terminated for political reasons or without reasonable cause. When administrations change, some political appointees seek to convert their status to that of career employees to remain with the government. This is known as 'burrowing in.' Burrowing in raises concerns, because the burrowed employee takes a spot that would have gone to a career employee selected based on merit and skill. It also installs someone in a permanent position who might seek to undermine the work of a new administration with different policy priorities. 


The end of an administration is an especially ripe time to try to install political employees and career positions. These conversions are legal, but only when an agency follows a strict set of procedures, such as publicly advertising the job and ensuring that the applicant is the most qualified and experienced to hold it. These procedures ensure that the employee is qualified for the civil service job. When an agency fails to follow these procedures, the new administration can fire the employee without complying with the strict civil service protections. This happened in 2017 with an employee of Housing and Urban Development who had previously been an Obama political appointee to the Agriculture Department. The employee challenged his firing, but the Court of Appeals determined that his hiring had constituted an impermissible conversion and permitted the termination. Generally, the Office of Personnel Management, called the OPM, must approve any conversion of political appointee to career employee, and conducts periodic reviews of conversions to make sure that the process follows the rules and complies with the merit principles underlying career federal service. The Government Accountability Office, or GAO, also conducts periodic reviews, as does Congress. So look to Congress, the GAO and OPM to be vigilant during the transition period to ensure that the Trump administration does not abuse the burrowing in process, or seek illegally to install any political appointees in career positions. For Talking Feds, I'm Josh Siegel. 


Harry Litman [00:35:46] Thanks very much, Josh Siegel. You can catch Josh's work in all four seasons of The Good Place, which are available on Netflix, and also in the brand new Saved by the Bell, which the L.A. Times called 'one of the year's best TV shows,' and which is available on the NBC Universal streaming platform Peacock. The first episode is free. 


All right, so let's move on for a few minutes to what some people are suggesting may be the worst hack of the US government in history and our cyber security agent has called 'a grave risk.' First, we've got a little bit of different reporting, some say the hackers are connected to the Russian government. Some say, you know, it's straight from Putin. Does it seem to be really at the government of Russia level? Do we know at this point? 


Ted Lieu [00:38:04] I don't think we know, but I think what's more important is not just who the foreign power may be, but the fact that this keeps happening. So their hack of the Office of Personnel Management, I was in Congress when that happened, that was a devastating hack that really significantly affected our national security. And it wasn't because there was a kinetic missile strike or soldiers attacking the United States, it was basically a cyber security attack on the US. And the same thing happens again, and it happens a very similar way, which is through a third party vendor. And we just have to be more serious about protecting our federal agencies and also our private sector, but we have to also focus on third party vendors, not just on the actual software that the federal government uses by itself, but also the ones that we purchase and buy from private sector companies and make sure that those are tested, and that we continue to monitor those programs as well. I'm one of four recovering computer science majors in Congress, I think it might be one of three next term because one of the folks retired, and cybersecurity is just very clear to me is something we need to jack up from a scale of 5 importance to 10, and I hope the Biden administration does that. 


Harry Litman [00:39:15] You know, it's interesting, Biden administration already is making moves to do it. It occurred to me that we are exactly at the juncture that we were when Mike Flynn began to kibitz and meddle. And yet I see it from a different standpoint now where the Trump administration is doing nothing. Biden would like to go forward, he's at least rhetorically being kind of a commander in the wings, but he's paralyzed until they actually get in. 


Dana Bash [00:39:42] Well, they don't know. I did some interviewing of people this week, and they even as we speak, the hack is likely going on, and the scary thing is that our intelligence community doesn't know several really important things. A, has it ended? They don't think it has. B, was it intended to disrupt, or was it intended to take information or both? 


Harry Litman [00:40:06] LIke traditional espionage or something bigger? 


Dana Bash [00:40:09] Yeah, it could be that the goal was to blow up the power grid in the middle of the winter. We don't know that, it could happen tomorrow and they could have all of the plans in place to do that based on how they were able to get in. I mean, it is really scary stuff. 


Michael Schmidt [00:40:24] The only thing I would say on these hacks is that every time there's like a hack that happens, it's always like the worst hack that we've ever had. And I just think that we should just have a little bit of patience in the sense of look. Edward Snowden took over a million documents from the intelligence community and made them public. That was like a very damaging thing for the intelligence community. OPM, as the congressman was pointing out, had basically all the personal information for anyone that's ever worked for the federal government stolen. The Russians in the second term of Obama's administration, got into the unclassified email system in the White House and got Obama's emails. And this one may turn out to be the worst, but it's hard to know because it's so early in that process and these things do seem to get worse and worse, but I don't know. 


Harry Litman [00:41:06] Tying this to what Dana said, the question seems to be, is the idea just to do traditional espionage like everyone does, or this really could give people the capacity to do something much worse, really grind systems to a halt and the like? This is a really interesting question. Brad Smith, president of Microsoft, is kind of stepping into the void that the government's leaving, says there's just got to be some laws here as there is in the law in wartime. There are things you just can't do. And he proposes in the same way, espionage, OK, we know that's going to happen, but chain of supply attacks and the like, that has to be the equivalent of illegal wars. 


Ted Lieu [00:41:47] Here's a reason why this hack is a little bit different. The scale of it is really quite vast. Based on public reporting, we're talking about potentially over 18,000 customers that were compromised. And we also know that earlier in the year, they were selling access to this on the dark web. So the reason we don't know what may happen in the future is, what if you're a North Korean intelligence agency that is looking at this going, 'oh, OK, I'll buy some access,' or if you're the Iranians or if you're just a criminal hacker group, who knows who may have access to this, including not just the Russians, it could be anyone potentially. And that's why this could be a pretty devastating hack. 


Harry Litman [00:42:27] All right. We have just about a minute for our final feature of Five Words or Fewer. I'm going to make this a host prerogative because we were hoping possibly to talk briefly about Michael's scoop on the Cleveland Indians, combined with Major League Baseball's decision to finally recognize statistics from the Negro Leagues, elevating suddenly such all time greats as Josh Gibson and Satchel Paige into the company where they deserve to be. So let's make this the Five Words or Fewer and I'm dedicating it to Tom Kagle and Anne LaFollet, whose relationship is built on the great game of baseball and one of whom is about to have a birthday. So five words or fewer, please, "are the actions of major league sports leading the charge for social reform or following the leads of others?" Five words or fewer? 


Michael Schmidt [00:43:25] Yes, they clearly know they have to change. 


Dana Bash [00:43:28] OK, this is a shout out to my producer, one of our producers, a deputy political director, Terrence Furley, who's a Cleveland native. Cleveland native Terrance Bearly, says they should be called the Guardians. 


Harry Litman [00:43:43] Congressman?


Ted Lieu [00:43:44] So I'm just going to give you the most politician answer ever: leading and following. 


Harry Litman [00:43:49] OK, and I'll play it straight: Baseball, football following, basketball leading. 


Thank you very much to Congressman Ted Lieu, Dana Bash and Michael Schmidt. And thank you very much listeners for tuning in to Talking Feds. If you like what you've heard, please tell a friend to subscribe to us on Apple Podcasts, or wherever they get their podcasts, and please take a moment to rate and review this podcast. You can follow us on Twitter @TalkingFedsPod to find out about future episodes and other Feds-related content. You can check us out on the Web, talkingfeds.com , where we have full episode transcripts, and you can look to see our latest offerings on Patreon, where we post discussions about special topics exclusively for supporters. Submit your questions to questions@talkingfeds.com , whether it's for Five Words or Fewer, or general questions about the inner workings of the legal system for our Sidebar segments. Thanks for tuning in, and don't worry: as long as you need answers, the Feds will keep talking. Talking Feds is produced by Jennifer Bassett and Rebecca Lowe-Patton. Our editor is Justin Wright. David Lieberman and Rosie Don Griffin are our contributing writers. Production assistance by Matt McArdle. Our consulting producer is Andrea Carla-Michaels. Thanks very much to Josh Siegel for explaining the important transition topic of burrowing to us. Our gratitude goes, as always, to the amazing Philip Glass, who graciously lets us use his music. Talking Feds is a production of Dalito, LLC. I'm Harry Litman, see you next time.


I NEVER PROMISED YOU A ROSE GARDEN PARDON

Harry Litman [00:00:01] Hi, Harry here with a quick word about our Patreon site. patreon.com/talkingfeds has all kinds of mostly one on one interviews about important issues that aren't covered on our podcast or other podcasts. So right now, we've just put up something on original jurisdiction and the Texas law suit. A couple of days ago, a debate with Jed Shugerman on presidential pardons, Andrew Weissmann on Michael Flynn, a whole wealth of stuff from many different fields. So it does have a fee, five dollars, three dollars for students. But you can go check out what's there, decide if it looks good and then if you want to, subscribe. So check it out, patreon.com/talkingfeds . OK, thanks, and here is our episode. 


[00:00:57] Welcome to Talking Feds, a roundtable that brings together prominent former federal officials and special guests for a dynamic discussion of the most important political and legal topics of the day. I'm Harry Litman. The transition weeks tick away and the Trump administration begins to leave, or be dragged from, center stage. Trump himself is going out in full Trumpian style, obsessing about his phantom claims of election fraud while steadfastly ignoring the virus, which this week reached its peak one-day death toll in the United States with over 3,000 reported deaths. Meanwhile, the incoming administration sustained a legal and political blow before even taking office with the revelation that the president elect's son, Hunter Biden, has been under federal investigation since 2018 for a series of possible financial crimes involving his business dealings with China. 


[00:01:54] It's not yet clear if the investigations will have legs, but they are serious on their face and at a minimum, give Republicans in Congress a bat to beat the new administration with. Biden this week selected nominees for many important agencies, including a controversial secretary of defense pick, retired Army General Lloyd Austin, and continues to fill out his administration at a faster pace than his predecessors. But most eyes are turned to the all important choice for attorney general, with four apparent finalists and the direction of the Department of Justice, which has been so troubled during Trump's years, in the balance. To discuss these developments, we have three good friends of the podcast and four, counting me, as I do, experienced veterans of the department who have both the rich vantage point and deep affection for the DOJ, as well as a passionate interest in seeing a return to the respected institution it was when we all worked there. 


[00:02:54] And they are: Jen Rogers, a legal analyst for CNN, a teacher at both NYU and Columbia Law School. Jen worked for many years in the United States Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York, where she served in numerous capacities, including as a deputy chief appellate attorney, the chief of the organized crime unit, and a chief of the general crimes unit. Hi, Jen. Good to see you. 


Jen Rodgers [00:03:20] Thanks, Harry. Great to be here. 


Harry Litman [00:03:22] Andrew Weissmann, a distinguished senior fellow at NYU Law School, a partner in the Jenner and Block law firm, a legal analyst at MSNBC and the author of the recent "Where Law Ends: Inside the Mueller Investigation," which if you haven't read yet, you should go out and pick up right away. Andrew, of course, served as a lead prosecutor in Robert Mueller's special counsel's office, and before that as the chief of the fraud section in the US Department of Justice's criminal division. Welcome, Andrew. 


Andrew Weissmann [00:03:53] Nice to be back. 


Harry Litman [00:03:54] And, Mimi Rocah, whom it's been too long since we've seen on Talking Feds, but she's been pretty busy. Mimi has worn many hats in her career, including assistant US attorney in the Southern District of New York, where, like Jen, she held a number of leadership positions, distinguished fellow at Pace Law School, legal analyst for MSNBC and NBC News. But the voters of Westchester County have fitted her for a new, very important hat: the district attorney of Westchester County, an office she won handily in November and will assume January 1st. So good to see you, Mimi. What do we call you, madam D.A.? Honorable D.A.? What should we call you? Mimi? 


Mimi Rocah [00:04:37] You still you still get to call me Mimi, Harry, but to everyone else, yes. Great to be here. 


Harry Litman [00:04:46] Let's start with the charges against Hunter Biden, who says that he just learned about them this week and made them seem like they were limited to tax. But it seems like they're broader than that encompass many offices. Just for starters, I mean, we only know what they are investigating on paper, but how serious does this look? 


Andrew Weissmann [00:05:07] I think it's important to start with what we don't know. We don't know exactly what's under investigation. We don't know if it goes beyond the one district that has any active investigation. And we don't know if the charges that are under investigation will ever, in fact, lead to an indictment. There's a lot of unknowns. The information, as you point out, Harry, is that there at the very least is a tax investigation, which you would think would be the money that he got from various overseas ventures. Was he paying taxes on it? The statement that he issued kind of suggests a defense to at least criminal liability, which is that he had the benefit of tax professionals to give him advice about what should or should not be reported. Remains to be seen whether that kind of defense works. 


[00:06:01] You folks know the way that can work is if you have disclosed everything to your tax professionals and then they happen to give you wrong advice, you may get off in terms of criminal liability. You still have civil liability, but it may also be the case that he didn't report everything to his own tax professionals. So, a lot remains to be seen. 


Harry Litman [00:06:20] Or it may be that it's just a factor that DOJ uses not to bring charges that they think they could possibly win. There's an indication that there was an active money-laundering investigation that was closed without charges being brought. Did anyone else pick up on that hint? 


Jen Rodgers [00:06:39] Yeah, this is Jen. I mean, the reporting I saw, it did say that they had a money laundering investigation which since has been closed, and they've now shifted gears toward the tax investigation. So one big question to me is this obviously is an ongoing investigation that's been in place for a couple of years now. What happens now? I mean, are they rushing to try to complete something before Trump and Barr are gone? If it does move over into the next administration, there's going to be pressure on Biden to appoint a special counsel. Alternatively, you could leave it with the Delaware US attorney, but kind of wait to get rid of him, if Biden would otherwise do so, until that investigation is finished. One big question for Biden on this is, what do you do with this kind of awkward investigation now that's floating out there? 


Harry Litman [00:07:27] He's playing it very straight, which is a welcome development. He said at his press conference today just, 'I'm very proud of my son.' But one interesting aspect, this has been happening since 2018. They're only now taking overt steps, which they stayed their hand at doing during the election, but what's been going on for these two years and by the way, it seems as if Bill Barr played it straight here and didn't transmit to the White House and the president information they might dearly have loved about Hunters' being under investigation. 


Mimi Rocah [00:08:02] I feel like this is at least the second time in about six months that we've been surprised by something Barr did or didn't do. Recently, he announced that he basically, in sum and substance, didn't find fraud in the election. And I think some of us said things like, 'wow, what's the world coming to when Barr is the word of truth?' And it feels a little bit like that now. It doesn't change anything that - and I'm guessing for others on this as well, that we thought about Barr in terms of being extremely partisan and politicizing the DOJ. And he's now being criticized by Trump supporters and some Fox News people for not having revealed the fact of this investigation before the election. But the fact of the matter is, that's the way it's supposed to work. And to me, this is just a sign of sort of how low our standards are now and how far we've fallen, we being Americans' view of DOJ, because this wouldn't have happened before. It would have been the norm that that would not have been revealed especially close to the election. And so doesn't change anything about what Barr has done in the past, but I think it's a reminder of how far we have to get back to normal operations of DOJ being independent from politics. 


Andrew Weissmann [00:09:23] Mimi, the mother of a friend of mine used to always say, 'you don't get credit for doing the right thing.' And this is one where we're all sitting there going, 'hey, isn't this great? Barr played by the rules.' I've yet to be, I'm so cynical Mimi because I've lived through being burned, like a lot of people, that it remains to be seen just how much he really did and what was disclosed to him, and I'm sure there's going to be more to come. But you don't know sort of what the various U.S. attorney's offices reported and what kind of discussions there were. To Jen's point, you don't know if the money laundering investigation, whether that was just referred closed but referred to Delaware so there's one office. And the one thing that I always was surprised that we haven't heard about is, in addition to a tax investigation, just looking at what is public, it seems like there might be grounds for a FARA investigation, which that's the Foreign Agents Registration Act, and if he is doing work for any foreign client, it can be an individual who is a private individual, a private corporation or even a government, but it doesn't have to be a foreign government. 


[00:10:32] And you do any sort of lobbying or influencing of the public here in the United States, that would require registration. So that could also be under investigation. But I do think the big issue for the incoming administration is what do you do with the US attorneys who have these sensitive investigations, whether it's John Durham, whether it's the Delaware U.S. attorney, obviously by right, the president can dismiss all of the US attorneys who are presidential appointments, it doesn't matter what label they're given, whether they're also given a label, special counsel or not, all of that is irrelevant to the president's power to remove, and Bill Clinton famously just asked everyone to hand in their resignation. But the question is whether that's going to look too political when it comes to US attorneys who have sensitive investigations pending. 


Harry Litman [00:11:27] Yeah, it's an excellent point. And I remember when all the Clinton US attorneys were asked to leave, a couple stayed for this very reason, because they were presiding over sensitive investigations. And speaking of sensitive investigations, there's also a suggestion and talk about a complicating factor, we saw this with Trump himself, that there may be a counterintelligence aspect to the investigation of Hunter Biden. And as we know, those can sometimes A, take years to resolve and B, be resolved completely under wraps so nobody even knows what happens. Of course, moving into politics, not our normal safe harbor here, but just the pendency in some way of the investigation means that up on Capitol Hill, they can harp on it continually, right? We had no drama Obama, nothing for eight years then total soap opera Trump. But now Biden, who would have hoped to begin and remain clean, does have this chain to bear, and it seems unavoidable that he'll take political flak for it. 


Andrew Weissmann [00:12:35] Yeah. Don't you think, given the history in this country of family members who are not necessarily on the straight and narrow, I think people kind of, unless it really is going to affect the candidate or the president himself or eventually hopefully herself, I think the country sort of looks by that. We've had family members who have been unsavory. I mean, he may have committed a crime, we'll find out whether he gets charged or not, but he clearly has had a difficult life in terms of drug abuse. 


Harry Litman [00:13:04] And so you think maybe he gets a pass, although now maybe this was just for electoral purposes, but they were sure going at him hammer and tong over the last year, and certainly whatever it was kind of exaggerating. One of the things that are interesting about this actual investigation, what is this laptop and how does Rudy Giuliani come to possess it? Let's turn to the big policy question, Jen, you mentioned the potential need to appoint a special counsel, wither the special counsel. We had the whole Ethics in Government Act regime that seemed to basically be a disaster when Clinton was investigated with the endless upriver trip of Ken Starr. But then we went back to greater control and internal regulations, which gave the AG and president ultimate control. 


[00:13:55] And that really seemed perfectly ill suited to the kind of rascal that President Trump was in terms of being willing to just violate norms, if not laws and meddle all the time. What should happen? I saw one proposal by Roger Painter to maybe there should be some kind of permanent standing special counsel. What regime now, having learned at least two lessons, should we be thinking about, how does the country want to handle investigations of relatives or close associates of the president? 


Jen Rodgers [00:14:30] Yeah, that's the million dollar question, right? I mean, we had the independent counsel, we swung back in the other direction to the special counsel. Richard Painter's suggestion, which I also saw, seems to me to not be the right answer. I mean, as soon as you have a permanent special counsel, it's no longer an outside of the government person, right? Now, you are an internal government person, which, by the way, of course, is Bill Barr's parting gift to all of us is to install Durham, who is not supposed to be appointed as a special counsel, given that he's the US attorney, now is in that role and Biden will have to figure out what to do with him or the A.G. will have to figure out what to do with him. So I don't know. I mean, obviously, Andrew's more of an expert on this, having actually worked at the special counsel's office. 


[00:15:17] I don't know where you draw the line between more versus less independence, probably somewhere in the middle, I assume, since we've now learned that both of those more extreme positions haven't worked well, it's just so hard to try to figure out where to go when you're dealing with someone who was as bad as Trump was in terms of busting norms. I mean, I think and hope we won't have another president who behaves that way, so in many ways, you don't want to go too far in trying to rein in future behavior that may never occur. On the other hand, given Trumpism and some of his followers in Congress and so on, I don't know that we can count on that, and he may have done lasting damage that requires us to have laws in place to try to to stop it. So, I don't know. But I am interested in what Andrew thinks, given his experience actually working in the special counsel's office. 


Andrew Weissmann [00:16:08] I, too, think it's very difficult to figure out what is the best way for there to be an independent investigation of the executive when it's being done by the executive branch, because we saw the president use his ability to fire the special counsel, or at least the person who appoints the special counsel, if they don't fire the special counsel. And we also saw the use of the pardon power to thwart the investigation. But even I am not convinced that the answer is to go back to an independent counsel. I'm not a fan of the idea of a separate institution to do this, which does exist in other countries. 


Harry Litman [00:16:48] For the same reason as Jen, Andrew, that you're opposed to the standing... 


Andrew Weissmann [00:16:52] Yeah, I just think that we're not there yet, with no fault to the special counsel rules, which are were reaction to the Ken Starr investigation. I think that no one was thinking that we would have this kind of situation. So there's some tweaks that can be made, I actually write about this in my book is to sort of how to try and fix some of this. You could have an appointment that comes also from the DNI, not just from the AG. You can have direct reporting by the special counsel to Congress. All of the material should have to go to Congress. You can have Congress appoint a special counsel, obviously, and you can have Congress actually do an investigation and do referrals. I mean, that's not ideal, but it's a way of at least dealing with the executive branch, not appointing somebody. 


Harry Litman [00:17:42] Oy, talk about leaks. 


Andrew Weissmann [00:17:44] Well, I mean, there are other ways to deal with that, no one's clamped down on that. But we have to deal with what do you do when you have a lawless president and a lawless AG? There are ways to try and deal with some of the behavior. And you can have Congress trying to step into some of the gray areas about how the pardon power is used to make it clear what they think is criminal. I mean, obviously, there would be certain constitutional limits to that. Those are the steps that I think need to be done to tighten this up so that we don't have a repeat of this. And then finally, I'm a strong proponent that there has to be some accountability for a president who obstructs a special counsel investigation. And I think if you remove Trump from the equation, you just think about this, how do you investigate a president going forward? If there isn't some downside for a president obstructing a special counsel, then all of this is for naught, because if you can't indict a sitting president for a crime of obstructing a special counsel, and you have a view once the person is out of office is 'let's just move on,' then the message is, is that the president is de facto above the law, even if they're not legally above the law. And so I do think that is a issue that the new attorney general is going to have to wrestle with. 


Harry Litman [00:19:12] Already there are calls for a special counsel for Hunter Biden. Biden's going to have to field that even as any responsible person in government would be wrestling with the issues that Andrew and Jen identify of what's the best way for a rule of law driven democracy to investigate its highest officials? Other countries have managed to do it, and I guess we have as well, until the debacle of the last several years. 


[00:19:42] It's now time to take a moment for our sidebar feature, which explains some of the terms and relationships that are foundational to events in the news. Today, we're explaining an important distinction in the justice system that often confuses people: namely, the difference between criminal and civil contempt. And to explain, we are fortunate to welcome Andy Cohen. Andy is an American radio and TV talk show host, producer and writer. We've been friends since the last millennium. Andy's the host and executive producer of Bravo's Watch What Happens Live with Andy Cohen, and he has a pop culture channel on Sirius XM Radio, Radio Andy. He's won an Emmy and two Peabody Awards, and written three New York Times bestsellers. So I give you Andy Cohen on the difference between criminal and civil contempt. 


Andy Cohen [00:20:38] What is civil and criminal contempt? A judge yells at the lawyer, 'order, order, order in the court. If you don't settle down, you'll be held in contempt of court.' You've seen this scene on television hundreds of times, so what does it mean to be held in contempt of court? Contempt is conduct that disrespects the court. There are two types of contempt that a court can impose: civil and criminal. Civil contempt is a coercive measure meant to encourage parties to comply with the court authority so that the court may return to a state of decorum. For more serious cases of courtroom misconduct, a judge might charge someone with criminal contempt of court. Criminal contempt is a criminal charge for serious offenses, and can even require a jury trial. Judges weigh different factors when deciding whether to hold someone in civil or criminal contempt, including the nature of the underlying court proceeding, criminal or civil, and the severity of the individual's behavior. In order for someone to be charged with criminal contempt, the charges must be proven beyond a reasonable doubt. 


[00:21:44] Criminal contempt can be either direct or indirect. Direct criminal contempt occurs during the court proceedings, such as the defendant shouting profanities at the judge during a hearing. A defendant muttering an obscenity during a hearing, on the other hand, would be considered civil rather than direct criminal contempt because the courtroom disruption is much less severe. Indirect criminal contempt typically occurs outside the court, usually when someone deliberately disobeys a court order or judgment. Movies like My Cousin Vinny make light of disobeying court orders and contempt of court, but in real life, contempt of court can carry significant jail time. So on behalf of Talking Feds, we ask you to please remember to dress appropriately and be polite next time you find yourself in a courtroom, which I hope is never. For Talking Feds, I'm Andy Cohen. 


Harry Litman [00:22:42] Thanks very much, Andy Cohen, for that explanation. We often, after sidebars, provide the latest achievement of the readers. Today, the latest achievement is not of Andy, but of Andy's son, Benjamin Allan Cohen, who recently won a Golden Robe Award in a three way tie for over the top adorableness with fellow infants Anderson Cooper's baby, Wyatt and Amy Schumer's baby, Gene. 


[00:24:39] I want to talk briefly about these calls that were public, but not their content, that the president made to Republican officials in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, as part of his brazen campaign, I might say, to just set aside the electoral results in those states. But obviously, it was unseemly and Trumpian, any possible liability there or anything that a steadfast Department of Justice would be looking into? 


Jen Rodgers [00:25:14] I don't think so. I mean, when I look at them, first of all, of course, you don't know what was really said. And if you think about it like a call to say, 'hey, what are the options? What can be done here? We have an election, we have results that we think are maybe not trustworthy, then you have to certify, then there are these electors and they go do their thing, what's the deal? Then I don't see how that could possibly be criminal, right, in the way that if the legislators themselves were sitting around trying to figure out what is it that we have to do, what are we bound to do, what are we not bound to do, where can we exercise our discretion? So until and unless you had some evidence that he actually was advocating something that's clearly illegal as opposed to just kind of trying to figure out if there is a way that it can be done legally, then I don't know how you would even open an investigation, frankly. 


Harry Litman [00:26:10] All right. So your verdict is sort of politics as usual, I guess, and maybe that's it. The reason this caught my eye is I'm just wondering if it's one thing, the offenses that Trump has committed the last four years, but are we in some kind of special period where tampering with the election might actually cause the DOJ to look into things? 


Andrew Weissmann [00:26:34] I think it's going to really depend on what was said. I completely agree with Jen, if somebody calls and says, 'look, I'm troubled by this, is there anything legally that you can do? What is the scope of your discretion?' 


Harry Litman [00:26:47] Well, let me interrupt you there, for Jen and Andrew, because there's at the most benign there's no doubt he was applying pressure, right? It's more than, 'oh, you know, anything we can work together on?' So certainly we start with that. Now, that doesn't mean it crosses the line, but... 


Andrew Weissmann [00:27:02] So let's assume I mean, this is why you would want to know from the recipients of the calls what they recall. And I think you could imagine him spinning out the same false facts about their being election fraud, which has no evidence, and then saying, I want you to take action and threatening primaries and even what his supporters might do. So you can imagine situations where this would, I think, fall into 18 USC 242 and there would be substantial reason to want to vindicate this. So 18 USC 241 242 are sort of the election, the specific election fraud statutes that are sort of more commonly used by, for instance, public integrity, that's sort of the withered section of the Department of Justice in the last four years. And interestingly, those statutes came about because of the freed slaves and being concerned about their votes being tampered with and harassment. 


[00:28:02] And DOJ has put out guidance for many years that says that those statutes are to govern election fraud, which covers conduct intended to corrupt the process by which the ballots are tabulated or election results are certified. So the department has definitely viewed the statutes as covering this kind of situation. But again, depending on, as Jen points out, what the facts are in terms of those calls. But I think an interesting aspect of this is this raises the issue of can a president sort of pardon himself away from this? Because one counter to that is, 'well, don't worry, there's always impeachment.' So you don't need to let's say the president can pardon his way out of this. But what do you do with the president who commits a crime between November and January? 


Harry Litman [00:28:50] Exactly. 


Andrew Weissmann [00:28:51] You don't have an, impeachment is not an answer. Let's assume he was on tape physically threatening violence, is the answer that he then can issue a self pardon, which, by the way, I'm confident he will do for any and all crimes. And is it really the case that it would apply to this situation, again, assuming the hypothetical that the facts would warrant an investigation and or prosecution? 


Mimi Rocah [00:29:14] I just think it's also I mean, without sort of getting into the specifics of what might or might not actually be investigated or prosecuted here, I mean, this kind of picks up on Andrew's point about impeachment not being an option, when the very thing that he was impeached for was this very parallel fact pattern. And so, I just think that cuts in favor of there being some resolution or way of dealing with this. Now, it's the same calling Ukraine. It could be, right? As we're saying, depending on what was said, it could be a domestic equivalent of calling Ukraine and saying, 'do me a favor, though.' It's really striking. 


Jen Rodgers [00:29:55] Although one one good thing is that unlike some of the things that Trump has done, if you're talking about meddling in the election in these states, there's unquestionably state crimes that would be violated here, right? 


Harry Litman [00:30:08] Excellent point, yeah. 


Jen Rodgers [00:30:09] If you're going to talk about a violation of 242, there is going to be a statute on point in Pennsylvania and Georgia and Michigan and so on. So those state authorities would really probably, frankly, be in the better position to go forward with such a thing, right? I mean, it's their election integrity that's being threatened here. So that is not pardonable, as we know by Trump. 


Harry Litman [00:30:31] Yeah, he has been in this perfectly protected position, as Andrew said. 'Oh, you can indict him. Oh, let's let's let bygones be bygones.' But this does seem like a, if it's sinister. And of course, he rarely disappoints on those grounds. But but if it is, it's both going to the heart of democracy and also not otherwise remediable. I wanted to move into its discussion about the A.G. selection, not in terms of, 'hey, who do you like' and that sort of thing, but what really are the stakes here for Biden? We've had four announced candidates, Doug Jones, Sally Yates, Merrick Garland and Deval Patrick are under active consideration. Which way do you sort of go? Again, not in terms of your own preference, but what's at stake with the different kinds of choices? It's obviously a really important one that will have everything to do with what happens to the department's efforts to kind of right the ship. 


Mimi Rocah [00:31:37] I mean, look, I think what's at stake I mean, you said it, but I just don't think it can be overemphasized is the reputation, integrity of the Department of Justice. It is so badly damaged, and we've all talked about it kind of ad nauseum for four years. And the question is, can it recover, right? And I think we all want it to, we all hope it can. We all think it can. But I think it's still an open question, quite honestly. 


Harry Litman [00:32:04] A lot to be done. It only begins with the choice of a AG nominee. 


Mimi Rocah [00:32:07] Right. And because of the perception and how divided the American public is, and the fact that everything now is seen through a political lens and we have to undo that. So to me, putting personal preferences aside, this has nothing to do with that. As a former DOJ person who wants to see it succeed, I would love for it to be a person who will least prompt that. Oh, they're just doing this because of their political beliefs, response, whatever they do. And in some ways, Doug Jones, even though he's the one who was actually political, like ran for office, he's not associated with the whole Russia investigation in any way, as salivates is. And so I think that maybe weighs, if you're looking at it just through that lens, kind of puts him at an advantage. But he's a guy who ran for office as a Democrat, and that's more like my world now of DAs, which we don't want for the Department of Justice. I mean, in some ways, a judge I mean, Deval Patrick, too. I guess he's in the Doug Jones category, so. 


Harry Litman [00:33:17] I mean, they've gone that road in the past, a judge, but of the four, why doesn't what you say, Mimi, scream out Merrick Garland? I mean, they lose a seat on the D.C. Circuit, but he's old, it would be his last stop. Isn't his reputation for integrity, institutionalism impeccable or no? Is he just because of the whole brouhaha on the Supreme Court is he just an unwitting partisan somehow? 


Mimi Rocah [00:33:40] I mean, I don't even think that it makes him an unwitting partisan, but it makes again, if we're looking at it strictly through the reaction of the public, the reaction to him is just unavoidably partisan at this point. I mean, I think it is. His name has become synonymous with that, and that's I mean, that's not his fault. 


Harry Litman [00:33:59] You guys agree? 


Jen Rodgers [00:34:00] Yeah, I'm afraid so. I don't like it because he didn't even do anything. He didn't even make a decision. And not that Sally Yates should be tarred with that either, but at least she affirmatively made a decision that they don't like. And so therefore, she's kind of stuck with this anti-Trump label or what have you. One thing I do like about Merrick Garland, I have to say, and I read it on Wikipedia so we all know it's true, is that he apparently, after having done all of these amazing things and been a special assistant to the AG, been a law firm partner, goes back to be a line assistant to do complex cases as an AUSA, which is amazing. It's like what Bob Mueller did. I just think that speaks really well to his character and where he wanted to be professionally. But I have to agree with Mimi, I think that once you kind of become a name that is in the mouth of the Trump people, you're just not going to hear anything else for four years other than 'hes anti-Trump, and therefore he can't be trusted and everything he does can't be trusted.' And you hate to play into that and to kind of give in to their definition of who Biden's AG is going to be, but this is so important. This is so important. I just feel like he's got to pick someone who doesn't have that label. 


Andrew Weissmann [00:35:16] So I basically agree with a slight twist. So first, I think all four of them would be great choices. I mean, no pun intended, but this is a low bar to be better than. Sally Yates would be spectacular, but I can easily see why you would not want to go through that kind of confirmation fight. But I think at that point, I think there's only so much that you need to be keeping an eye out for how they're going to be perceived on the far right, because you then you need to just be saying, 'look, if this person can be confirmed, then there are a whole bunch of other factors that I'm going to take into account.' And understanding that this is one where you have three other people are also terrific. I mean, to say you're dealing with really good choices. I think there's sort of a reality of Doug Jones, I think you would say is easily confirmable because he was a senator and Biden would get the two votes, assuming that we were to lose the votes in Georgia. 


Harry Litman [00:36:13] Wait, he would get which two votes? 


Andrew Weissmann [00:36:15] You assume that you lose the votes in Georgia and then say, would you be able to get in a 52-48 senate, would you pick up the two senators to support Doug Jones? And I think with a sitting senator, I think you would, because there's such a strong tradition of collegiality. 


Harry Litman [00:36:30] Where Sally Yates is, if the Democrats don't win, Georgia is in for a buzz saw, isn't she? 


Andrew Weissmann [00:36:36] Yes. And also that's going to be an ugly confirmation, and she is, I'm not saying she did anything wrong whatsoever, but she she is involved in the facts that could still be part of an investigation. 


Harry Litman [00:36:49] And they'll try to make a hearing and everything out of it. 


Andrew Weissmann [00:36:51] Exactly, as well as committing her to recuse herself on issues. So, but I do think, especially with the Department of Defense nominee being controversial because of his affiliation recently with the military, that you can understand why the Bush administration would want to appoint someone who is an African-American, who also has a civil rights background. So I do feel like Deval Patrick has that is a huge plus. And the fact that he's also managed an entire state so that he has that management experience, which the attorney general position, that is a management job where you have to be able to speak to the public, and you have to be able to manage that department, obviously, with the help of a deputy attorney general. So he seems to me that seems like a promising choice, and I also feel like he would be confirmable as well. So I sort of feel like that. To me, this is all the sort of like politics more than... 


Harry Litman [00:37:49] It is politics, but it's a toughie because it's politics, but it's politics at the service of a really important public policy rule of law goal, right? And they do have to do it without knowing about Georgia. 


Andrew Weissmann [00:38:00] Let's just get real, all four of these people are rule of law people. I mean, these are all terrific choices. The debate here is not about, 'oh, how could you think of appointing this person?' I think it comes down more to trying to understand either Mimi's point about how will they be received publicly so you do the least damage to the department, and then how you get them through the Senate. 


Harry Litman [00:38:22] Maybe, I mean, I'm not sure, Andrew. Obviously, they all do vault easily over the bar, as you named it. But who the attorney general is and how he or she manages things is really going to matter. I'm reminded now of Clinton who remember, he had two, Kimba Wood and Zoe Baird like miscues, and then I think he wanted to just show the person would be as independent as possible and I'm sure he would count it as a mistake that he eventually chose Janet Reno because she was so arm's length from him. I'm not pointing to one or the other, but I don't think the fact that all four of them would be way better or would be rule of law people is sufficient given the challenges that are there. It's a tough and that's not even thinking about the other political considerations, including within the party that he has. 


Jen Rodgers [00:39:19] Well, one more thing I was going to say about Patrick is the one thing that I do want are the two things that really deep department experience and true prosecutorial experience, which is one thing that we've been missing. I mean, at one point I think one of them has left now, but we had the three people atop DOJ, who have never been prosecutors before, which is preposterous, right? And all of these four had, but, Patrick not for very long, and not at the level that you would hope for if you were building a perfect A.G.. I don't know. I mean, you look at these are four amazing contenders, and then you start to like pick at it, and I don't know that there's a perfect person who kind of meets all of the criteria, although some of those criteria are unfair, right?


Harry Litman [00:40:02] But this is an excellent point. It's sort of what I'm saying. So take Patrick, all of us know from having been in the department, the Civil Rights Division is a little bit an enclave unto itself. It's got its own kind of culture, he's very strong for that. But is he the person to lead all the criminal division, organized crime? Maybe yes, maybe no, that's all - but I do think they've got a lot to sweat about in making this final decision. All right, that's all we have time for today on the episode to discuss. We just have a couple of minutes for our final feature on Talking Feds known to all of you of Five Words or Fewer, where we take a question from a listener and each of us has to answer in five words or fewer. Today's question comes from Pearl Marin, who asks, "Are there any contemplated pardons that DOJ might fight in court?" Let me put this into context. I think a lot of people, including I, have said if he pardons himself, we're really not going to get a chance to see if it's legal because they won't prosecute him. But, maybe there are some others that they might. I take that to be Pearl's question, so five words or fewer anybody? 


Andrew Weissmann [00:41:17] Again, I'm going to go out on a limb then, and my one word answer is: No. 


Harry Litman [00:41:23] OK, four four words left over for either of you guys. 


Mimi Rocah [00:41:26] OK, good. I got extra words because I want to add 'I think:' we will see some challenged. 


Jen Rodgers [00:41:32] And I'm going to say: unlikely, maybe Rudy. 


Harry Litman [00:41:38] And I'll say less the person than the kind of pardon, maybe a brazen blanket one, anything they've ever done. All right. Very good to have all the homies back. 


[00:41:52] Hey, that's our episode for this week. Thank you very much to Jen, Mimi and Andrew, and thank you very much, listeners, for tuning in to Talking Feds. If you like what you've heard, please tell a friend to subscribe to us on Apple Podcasts or wherever they get their podcasts, and please take a moment to rate and review this podcast. You can follow us on Twitter @TalkingFedsPod to find out about future episodes and other Feds related content. You can check us out on the web, talkingfeds.com , where we have full episode transcripts. And you can look to see our latest offerings on Patreon, where we post discussions about special topics exclusively for supporters. Submit your questions to questions@talkingfeds.com , whether it's for Five Words or Fewer, or general questions about the inner workings of the legal system for our Sidebar segments. 


[00:42:47] Thanks for tuning in, and don't worry: as long as you need answers, the Feds will keep talking. Talking Feds is produced by Jennifer Bassett and Rebecca Lowe Patton. Our editor is Justin Wright. David Lieberman and Rosie Don Griffin are our contributing writers. Production assistance by Matt McArdle. Our consulting producer is Andrea Carla Michaels. Thanks very much to Andy Cohen for schooling us on the difference between criminal and civil contempt. Our gratitude goes, as always, to the amazing Philip Glass, who graciously lets us use his music. Talking Feds as a production of Dalito, LLC. I'm Harry Litman, see you next time.

PURPLE REIGN

Harry Litman [00:00:07] Welcome to Talking Feds, a roundtable that brings together prominent former federal officials and special guests for a dynamic discussion of the most important political and legal topics of the day. I'm Harry Litman. The virus has gripped the country and the world more tightly than ever. With winter approaching, the Center for Disease Control has warned that these next few months may be the most difficult time in U.S. public health history. Hospitals are already straining capacity, and the predictions are that by March, the death toll of the nation will stand at twice the 250,000 figure that we passed just last week. But there is also an emerging bright spot visible in the form of an effective vaccine, and there is finally some movement in Congress for at least a stopgap-stimulus to address the worst effects of the virus, which has hit the working poor especially hard. 


The president, meanwhile, apparently has taken up full-time residence in a world in which there is no virus, but there is an existential crisis of widespread fraud undermining the entire presidential election, which he is confident he won in a landslide. He gave what he termed, "maybe the most important speech I've ever made," a 46-minute extended hallucination, insisting that the election was rigged, and itemizing a long list of false assertions about voter fraud. Those claims have been scornfully rejected by a long list of state and federal courts, as well as Trump's erstwhile-loyal servant, Attorney General Bill Barr, who conceded that there was no evidence of fraud that would change the election outcome. 


A statement that reportedly left Trump livid, and considering sacking, Barr. Barr did provide Trump with an outgoing present in the formal appointment of John Durham as a special assistant, with a wide berth to investigate possible improprieties by law enforcement in its probe of the Trump campaign in 2016, a topic of unending obsession for the president. On both the virus and Trump fronts however, it felt as if this week the country's view began to turn forward from the impact of the waning Trump administration to the coming new day of President-elect Biden. And we will do the same with an absolutely phenomenal panel, starting with:. 


Senator Michael Bennet. Michael Bennet is the senior senator from Colorado, whom he has represented in the Senate since 2009. He's widely recognized as a pragmatic and independent thinker in that increasingly paralyzed body. He's worked across party lines to address climate change, education and health care, among other topics. I'm very proud to call him my longtime friend, from our time working together at the Department of Justice in the 1990s. Senator Bennett, thank you so much for joining Talking Feds. 


Michael Bennet [00:03:17] Thanks Harry, for having me. 


Harry Litman [00:03:18] Natasha Bertrand, a.k.a. 'Scoop,' is the national security correspondent at Politico and a political analyst for NBC and MSNBC. She's broken dozens of important stories in the Trump era. Just this week, Forbes magazine named her to its 30 under 30 in the media category. So she is now officially, as we've known her to be on Talking Feds for some time, a phenom. Natasha, thanks as always for joining us on Talking Feds. 


Natasha Bertrand [00:03:50] Thank you for having me, Harry. 


Harry Litman [00:03:51] And Fareed Zakaria, one of the deans of American letters, he is the host of CNN's Global Public Square, seen twice weekly in over 200 million homes for the last 10 years. He is the author of four New York Times bestsellers, including "The Post American World" and the just published "Ten Lessons for a Post Pandemic World." He also writes a weekly column for The Washington Post, where he and I were colleagues. Fareed, thank you very much for joining us on Talking Feds. 


Fareed Zakaria [00:04:24] It's my pleasure. 


Harry Litman [00:04:26] All right, so let's start with the spike in the virus and the challenges that it presents for Biden, I do want in general to be looking forward, but perhaps because of the strange drama in the White House, we're moving to these new grim goalposts every week, but we seem to be getting numb to it. A much-read column in The New York Times this week talked about the dark winter ahead with everyone on the inside. Let's just start there, how dark is the winter ahead? How tough do you see the next few months being in terms of the virus? 


Fareed Zakaria [00:05:01] Well, I think that this is something we should have expected, because once you start to see the numbers go up, let's just remember the core issue here is you have exponential growth. One person infects two people, two people infect four people, and so on. And so it's not so surprising that you're seeing these numbers go up, but the hopeful sign here is what we did in the past, which is you can get these numbers to go down. One of the greatest puzzles about the federal government's response to this pandemic, and I talk about this in my book, is that unlike the Asian countries, we have not been able to put in place an intelligent testing, tracing, and isolation system. All three, by the way, are very important. 


You have to test, you have to trace, but then you have to quarantine in some way, the infected or the potentially infected, because that's actually a very small number of people. And then the other 99 percent of the population has much greater latitude to go about their business. So, for example, I point out in the book, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore never did lockdowns, because they did such intelligent testing, tracing and isolation. We can still do that, it is still within our capacity, and it puzzles me that we have not yet done it. I'm hoping that the Biden administration will recognize that this is an area where even now, we don't have to wait for vaccines, even now we can have a much better experience with this. So the winter is going to be dark, but it doesn't actually have to be as dark as it looks right now. 


Michael Bennet [00:06:30] I'd say also, Harry, that this week I saw two pieces of good news. One was a conversation that the Democratic caucus had with the Biden transition team on the vaccination rollout, and it was just such a pleasure to have on the other end of the phone people who are actually competent to have the conversation that we were having, and were public spirited about the conversation we were having, and were actually developing a plan, a national plan for a vaccination after calls that for months and months and months have all been about, 'we don't have any idea, it's up to the governors.' So that's one big change. And by the way, they were quite optimistic about the vaccines and a sense that maybe by May we're really going to be turning the corner here. And that brings me to the second piece of good news, which is I think that Congress is moving toward an interim package of some kind to help cushion the blow. We've got a number of cliffs like the unemployment insurance cliff coming up on us now. We don't have any assistance for small businesses right now. If we can put a floor underneath families in this country and in underneath our small businesses for another four to six months, that could bridge the gap between where we are today. And where we're going to be when we're coming out of this dark period with the spring and with the vaccine. 


The final point I would make is just to agree so strongly with what Fareed has said. Part of this, whether it's now or whether it's when Biden comes in, has got to be a real commitment to strengthen our public health infrastructure. Kirsten Gillibrand from New York and I have a bill that would create something called the Health Force that literally would train hundreds of thousands of people to do the work that Fareed is saying we need to do, and we have to do it. One way or another, we've got to figure out a way to do it. This idea that somehow the choice is between public health and the economy is just the false choice, we've got - we have to do both. And the countries that have had a good public health infrastructure have not had to close their economies. If we want to keep our schools open, we want to keep our businesses open, we're going to have to stand up a public health infrastructure that, that does the job that we need it to do. And Trump has been totally unwilling to do that, obviously. 


Fareed Zakaria [00:08:47] Michael, can I ask a quick question on that new stimulus relief bill? Do you think it will be enough? I know there's this absurd debate going on about states and local governments, which seems to me crazy, because whatever you may think about these states, New York or California, they have had a hemorrhaging of tax revenue because of no fault of their own. They may be well-run or badly run, but New York subway ridership is down 65 percent, its sales tax revenues are down 50 percent not because it's badly run, but because there's no business, there are no tourists, nobody's spending money. Surely Mitch McConnell understands that these state governments need relief? 


Michael Bennet [00:09:25] Well, to begin with, if you look at the list of states, from ones most dependent on the federal government to least - or that is to say, states with the worst balance of payments with the federal government, the Commonwealth of Kentucky is second on that list. So you have all that federal money that's going to Kentucky is a reflection, I suppose, on how poorly Kentucky is run. Then maybe Mitch should take that up with people governing the Commonwealth. And of course, that's not the case, and you're you're exactly right. I mean, just like there's so many restaurants and other small businesses in Colorado and across the country who are closed due to no fault of their own. We've had states that have had to deal with that as well, so I would hope the four components basically would be extending unemployment insurance, which we need to do, putting a floor under small business, PPP is the likeliest way to do that, that's the program we had before. 


I actually have a proposal with my colleague from Indiana called the Restart Act that would provide working capital loans to businesses that have lost 25 percent or more of their revenue. That, I think is a better way, a more targeted way of doing it than PPP. Then there's the health force component of this, and then state and local governments. And the last thing we would want, I would think, would be a bunch of layoffs from state and local governments that are just going to compound the economic problem that we're facing. It is relief. That is what we're talking about here, and just look at my state. The unemployment insurance alone has meant four billion dollars to our economy that we otherwise wouldn't have had, and I can tell you that's made a huge difference to the ability of businesses to stay open, and like grocery stores and others, and we still need it now because as you pointed out, or as Harry pointed out, the numbers are worse now than they've been since the beginning of this crisis. 


Harry Litman [00:11:19] Natasha, so just picking up on this, as Senator Bennett says, we're talking about 80 million people hitting a wall December 31st and all the other problems, but they've been apparent for several weeks. And it seemed as if McConnell and the Republicans were adamant against addressing them, they confirmed judges and left town before. Do you have a sense of what has made him - I think it's supposed to be a fairly limited stimulus, but he is now playing ball with the Democrats. What's changed things, if you have any sense of that? 


Natasha Bertrand [00:11:53] Yeah, it's a good question. I mean, I think the senator probably has a first hand window into this, but I think he's recognizing the reality of the cliff that we're facing. With further stimulus legislation just at a standstill, the CARES Act relief provisions are going to expire, more than half of Americans currently receiving unemployment insurance qualify through the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance Program and the emergency unemployment compensation program. So that expiration would leave roughly, something over 10 million Americans without benefits come January, so couple that with the nationwide eviction moratorium that's going to end after the new year. It's just becoming increasingly untenable, I think. And we always face this kind of drama heading into the holidays on the Hill. There are always these last minute scrambles, but it seems like Mitch McConnell is preparing to give a little. That being said, Joe Biden has already said that this is going to be a start. He said earlier this week the 900 billion deal is going to be a good start, but that he is going to try to get more done after he is inaugurated. So I think that it's just a reflection of the realities that we're facing, that if the pandemic continues on the path that it is, and if we are going to be facing more lockdowns, which other countries around the world have been experiencing, then these benefits need to be extended. It's just a matter of maybe Mitch seeing the writing on the wall here. 


Fareed Zakaria [00:13:19] There's an irony here, which is that the first phase of this crisis, the United States handled the public health aspect abysmally, but it handled the economic crisis very well with the CARES Act. It was basically the largest stimulus in the world in percent of GDP terms, I think Australia's was larger, but other than that, the US was the largest. And as Michael Bennet pointed out, it really put a floor on how low the US economy could go. Only China and South Korea have done better than the US economically in the last seven or eight months. In phase two of this crisis, it's likely that the public health response will get much better, partly because of the Biden administration, partly because this is now a private sector led response, by which I mean therapeutics and vaccines are becoming the stars of the show. So just at the time when we're finally getting our hands around the public health crisis, we seem in danger of screwing up the economic part, the one piece that we handled well. 


Harry Litman [00:14:14] Yeah, although let me push back on you just a little and tie it into something that Senator Bennett said about the PPP, and a big theme in your own book, Fareed, which is so the PPP, as I understand it, something like 25 percent of all the moneys have gone to the top one percent in size of borrowers. And we have a recurrent theme that the virus economically has exacted its greatest cost on the working poor, and especially working poor women, and especially working poor women of color. You note that in the book, and try to turn it around to some kind of almost structural change in American economic policy to address the inequalities that have redoubled in the Trump era. Can we do both those things, can we both staunch the flow of blood from the virus itself, but also fundamentally change economic policy in the country, especially with a close to, or possible Republican majority in the Senate? 


Fareed Zakaria [00:15:23] It's a great question. So first, there's no question there was a certain amount of corruption and mismanagement with the PPP program, which, by the way, was not true of the American Recovery Act after 08-09, which Joe Biden administered. That program was remarkable for how clean and efficient it was. This one didn't have that effect, but because it was so much money, Harry, you've just got money out of the door. A lot of the unemployment insurance money got to people, it made a huge difference. So, while the program could have been designed better, and I'd love to hear Senator Bennett on what he might change, I think the fact the sheer size made a big difference. There's a saying in military strategy, 'America always wins because of bigness, not brains.' We just flood the zone, and that ends up winning. That seems to have been one of those cases. But what you're talking about here, the larger issue is a really profound thing that I worry about, because there's no question the single most negative aspect of the pandemic has been the dramatic rise in inequality. We can see it even on this program, we're all doing fine. We're all managing to live our lives, have our careers, generate our income... 


Harry Litman [00:16:30] Work at home. 


Fareed Zakaria [00:16:31] Right, work at home, basically by living a digital life, by working in the digital zone. But if you work in a restaurant, a hotel, a retail mall, a cruise ship, a theme park, this is the Great Depression. And those people are low-wage workers anyway. So that reality of the way in which this pandemic has really heightened the gap between a digital cognitive elite and a non-digital, non-urban people working with their hands, it's very dramatic. It exacerbates existing trends, there is no good government program I know of that has figured out how to deal with this yet. I think we need something more ambitious, more creative, something on the scale of a GI Bill that does retraining at that scale. And I would be fascinated to hear Senator Bennet on this, but it's probably the thing that has me most gloomy about the pandemic. 


Michael Bennet [00:17:20] Also, Fareed, it's what makes me feel like we're going to come out of this with a political imperative to change the outcomes for the American people. And while we still have a close Senate, no matter what happens in Georgia, I still think we're on the cusp of what's going to turn out to be a period of time in the country's history when we've got a much more progressive set of agendas, and much more significant investment in the United States. First, on the pandemic response, I think it's pointing to the reason why we should have so-called automatic stabilizers in place so that when our economy runs into trouble like this, we flood the zone, as you said, with UI benefits, with increases to SNAP and other things that make a difference, so we don't have to sit around and have a political debate about whether we're going to get the money out the door. I will say that one of my Republican colleagues this week said to me in the hallway, 'one dollar spent today is going to be twice as effective as the same dollar spent in March.' And I think actually probably five times more effective today than in March. And that is, I think, slowly catching their attention, and making them more willing to do something than they otherwise would. 


Harry Litman [00:18:34] And why is that? 


Michael Bennet [00:18:36] Because the carnage that's going to happen if you have a whole bunch of people that don't have access to unemployment benefits but need them, and therefore can't go out and spend their money and keep the economy lifted, the small businesses that otherwise might just make it to the other side of this, if there were a program in place to help them get there, but if there's not then their doors will shut and never reopen again. And then on top of that, if you have state and local layoffs as well, that creates a situation where we're just digging the hole deeper and deeper and deeper and deeper. That's what it can be avoided with an incremental recovery package today, I think. But then on the longer term, if I could just say a word about that, because I think I feel so strongly that this is the central question for our democracy, it's really easy for me to summarize the last 10 years of my town hall meetings. It's people coming in saying, 'Michael, we're working really hard and no matter what we do, we can't afford some combination of housing, health care, higher education or early childhood education.' Think about the parents of the kids that I used to work for the Denver public schools when I was superintendent, what they would say is, 'we're killing ourselves.' And they are, they're working two and three jobs, but no matter what we do, we can't get our kids out of poverty. And that's the anecdotal reflection of an economy that for 50 years hasn't worked well for most people. 


The top 10 percent have done fine, but the bottom 90 percent have not seen their incomes rise. We have no economic mobility in the country, and our education system is actually reinforcing the income inequality we have, rather than lifting people out of it. So we need, as Fareed suggested, I think an entirely new approach to upskilling workers at every stage along the way. I wish the Democratic Party weren't standing for free college right now, but instead for making sure that every single kid who graduates from high school graduates with the skills required to earn a living wage, not the minimum wage, that would transform our economy, and we could do that. I also think there are other important tax policies and investments we can make in the country. Take the child tax credit that Sherrod Brown and I have worked on for so long, if Joe Biden, who adopted that as part of his policy during the campaign, if he enacts that, the year that he enacts that, we will cut childhood poverty in America by 40 percent, without adding a single bureaucrat to the federal government, without doing anything except changing the way that works, that could have a transformational effect, and the beginnings of what I think of as a new progressive era. 


Harry Litman [00:21:17] On the other side of things, and of course, it's not just the vaccine, it's manufactured distribution, all kinds of issues. But is America permanently changed, will we be wearing masks in the subway in five years, and have the kind of aftershocks from this event? Or will it be kind of sealed off, and for the history books as, say, the Spanish flu appears to have been? 


Natasha Bertrand [00:21:42] I think some things will change, perhaps handshakes will be relegated to history, shared water fountains and things like that. I think there's going to be a heightened sensitivity. I mean, I'm sure that listeners will be able to empathize with this. When you're watching a show that was filmed a couple of years ago and you see people hug, you kind of cringe. Or when you see people maskless in a crowd, you're just like, 'oh, I can't believe we ever did that.' So I think that it'll change attitudes, which in some ways can be a very good thing, especially given how many people die from just the flu every year. But with a vaccine, I think that we will probably go back to a fairly normal way of life, in terms of particularly the economy with things opening back up again. There will just be generally a greater amount of caution. Folks I've spoken to pretty much everywhere have said that, that they're now realizing how easy it is to spread a disease, especially an airborne disease, and they're becoming more educated on public health, which is a very good thing. Back in the days of the Spanish flu, there was no Internet, it was obviously much harder to get information to the public. I think that this will be probably a net positive, in terms of educating the public on how to prevent against the spread of a deadly pandemic in the future. 


Harry Litman [00:22:59] It is true once you start thinking in these terms of germs and stuff, they are everywhere and it really does change your mindset. All right, so much more to think about but in general, I am buoyed by the notion that we are looking ahead, that the at least, as Fareed says, the medical part of this seems somewhat in hand, and the short term suffering has a light at the end of the tunnel. So much more to come with this on Talking Feds, but not today. It's time now for our sidebar feature, which explains some of the fundamental terms and relationships that are foundational to events that are discussed here in the news generally. The principle is equality of opportunity and the US rule of law, and our reader is Garry Kasparov. Kasparov is widely considered to be the greatest chess player who has ever lived, and that was just his first career. In the last 30 years, he has been a contributing editor of The Wall Street Journal, and a regular commentator on politics and human rights. He's the author of two acclaimed series of chess books, as well as his 2015 book, "Winter is Coming: Why Vladimir Putin and the Enemies of the Free World Must Be Stopped." I give you Garry Kasparov, discussing equality of opportunity and the US rule of law. 


Garry Kasparov [00:24:24] Does the US Constitution guarantee equality of opportunity? The United States has a deserved reputation as the land of opportunity. But this was never a promise of riches, of streets paved with gold. What has drawn generations of immigrants like me to America's shores, is freedom. The chance to flourish without discrimination or oppression. And even the economic dreams have always been tied to the law, beginning with the US Constitution. Although equality of opportunity has long been the centerpiece of rhetoric from both major political parties, the US Constitution does not guarantee such a thing to its citizens in those terms. The rights of guarantees can be described as negative liberty. They restrict the government from taking certain actions against citizens, like curtailing free speech, or using unreasonable force to make arrests. That is, the Constitution says not what the government can do for you, it's what the government can't do to you. Having grown up in the totalitarian Soviet Union, and later exiled from Putin's modern Russian dictatorship, I know all too well how much these limitations matter. What matters even more, is that these boundaries are respected and protected by the people and their leaders. After all, the Russian constitution guarantees all the same rights and more, even including a guarantee of equality of opportunity. But this is a dark joke in a dictatorship where the rule of law is really the rule of one man. 


I remember how shocked the Russian media was when Donald Trump's first attempt at an immigration ban was halted by a judge in Washington state in 2017. Not only was the president's action halted, but the judge was not arrested. His family was not imprisoned. That resonated very strongly with people in the unfree world, where such things could never occur. In America and other successful democracies, equality of opportunity is intrinsically connected to equality in the eyes of the law. No favoritism, no cronyism, no abuse of power. Equal opportunity means that all citizens, from a new immigrant to the president's own children, stand on an equal footing before the state. The ideal is less about attainment, than about fairness. That everyone has a chance to thrive without being held back unjustly by the government or by anyone else. As President-elect Joe Biden put it, echoing his great predecessors: 'It's about a society that gives every single person a fair shot, and an equal chance to get ahead.' That's a wonderful goal, and as the founders understood, it takes the will of the people, not just the president, and not just a piece of paper, to truly achieve it. For Talking Feds, I'm Garry Kasparov. 


Harry Litman [00:27:12] Thank you very much, Garry Kasparov, and thank you very much for the Renewed Democracy Initiative, an American political organization that Kasparov founded in 2017 to promote and defend liberal democracy in the U.S. and abroad, which helped us this week connect to Kasparov. 


The next big thing I want to talk about, you could call, and it's not my moniker, Trump's disgraceful endgame, and that's from a article in the National Review, not a left-leaning publication. But things have really seemed to edge into the bizarre, and the divide seems less Democrat versus Republican than just real world versus fictional world, in which Trump and his acolytes, including Michael Flynn, who was going to have been the national security adviser, seemed to be calling for armed insurrection and martial law and the like. So it's a crazy period that nevertheless is cabined by the knowledge that in 50-some days he won't be president. Let me just ask about your views of its practical impact, is Trump succeeding in sort of harming the president-elect's legitimacy going forward, or is now the political consensus on both sides of the aisle that this is just noise, and kind of venting that doesn't really change things on the ground? 


Fareed Zakaria [00:29:16] I feel very strongly that what Trump is doing is deeply destructive at two levels. The first is, let's remember just how near a miss this has been. What Trump has done, and he got the chairman of the Republican National Committee, he got senior senators, all of them pressuring these state officials to either delay certification or not certify, which would have then created a dilemma, which is where the Electoral College actually met. There would have been some states that might not have reported, which, of course, then throws the issue to the House of Representatives, and we got very close in Michigan. One of the two Republicans who had to certify on the board of canvassers caved in Georgia. Both the sitting senators asked the secretary of state of Georgia to resign, because he had done the terrible thing of actually affirming the truth. 


Harry Litman [00:30:04] Asked is a polite way to put it. 


Fareed Zakaria [00:30:06] Right, right, and demanding that he resign and all he had done was certify that the elections were free and fair, which they were. So I think my fear is that, by the way, Trump is not going to let up on these people. They may be driven out of Republican politics because of the heresy that they committed. And if that happens, think about the signal that sends to the next batch of Republican state officials, which is the next time there's a close election, and if the president presses you, put party before country, put fiction before fact, and we could go down that path. The second piece is, Trump has now created this extraordinary conspiracy theory about the stolen election. 77 percent of Republicans believe that theory. This is, to my mind, the only historical analogy I can think of is the German stab in the back theory that developed after World War I when the Germans were told by Hitler, among other people, we didn't actually lose World War I, we were cheated of victory because socialists and Jews made us surrender. We are in those kind of waters when you are looking at the numbers you're looking at, and forget about Biden, I think what he's doing is destroying American democracy, just so that he is more viable. I mean, this is the ultimate act of narcissism because it's sort of good for Trump, you know, he stays at the center and he's turned himself into the ultimate victim. The problem is, in order to do that, he really is shredding American democracy. 


Natasha Bertrand [00:31:32] I'll just add to that, we were asking this question of Democrats in the summer of 2019. What do you think will happen if Trump refuses to concede the election? What do you think will happen if he just refuses to leave, and mounts a legal challenge after legal challenge? And no one really seemed prepared for that possibility. We kind of got brushed off not only by Republicans, which is expected, but also by some Democrats who said, look, we need to focus on winning this, which is true. But when we were reporting out this story, we got the sense that there was no real anticipation, at least not early enough, that this undermining of democratic norms to such a degree, obviously, we've seen that over the last four years under Trump, but to this degree would be happening in the days after the election. So I think that's one big issue, is that the collective psyche on the Democratic side just wasn't prepared for this, and now we're having trouble figuring out how to beat it back. So, the one thing I will say, though, just in terms of its effectiveness, obviously the rhetoric is extremely damaging, and the fact that Joe Biden will be governing in America, where 77 percent of Republicans believe that the election was rigged and stolen from them, is extremely scary to think about, particularly given the president's unwillingness to disavow violence from his supporters and the violent actions that they have taken over the last month or so, driving Biden supporters and Biden members of the transition team and campaign off the road, for example. 


But the courts have largely held, right? I mean, we have seen that he, out of roughly 50 cases brought by Trump's campaign and his allies in different states, more than 30 have been rejected outright or dropped. About a dozen are awaiting action, and Trump has really just notched one victory, which was a case challenging a decision to move the deadline for absentee ballots and mail in ballots in Pennsylvania. So that is one institution, obviously, that has not collapsed under the weight of Trump's authoritarian tendencies. The state legislators that are controlled by Republicans, that is another thing that there's been a lot of pressure. Rudy Giuliani, for example, a ton of pressure by Trump and his allies to try to essentially get these state legislators to overturn the will of the people, and that has not materialized either. There's still - anything's possible before the Electoral College meets this month, and I think that we should obviously be on high alert for any shenanigans in terms of more pressure on these people to try to go rogue and become faithless electors. But for the most part, I think what we're seeing at this moment is just a very petulant, narcissistic person who's doing everything in his power to make it seem like he really won, and preserve his chances of running again in 2024, because our reporting indicates that he is trying to keep his powder dry for that, and his version of keeping his powder dry is to kick and scream all the way out the door. 


Harry Litman [00:34:34] Yeah that 46 minute speech, even for Trump I thought was vintage, but maybe it's just me. But I do have the feel that the strong Trump partisanship is passing into a different kind of discourse that most people would have trouble believing and just sounds marginal from the start. Of course there's that 77 percent figure, and if that holds, the implication for the ease of Biden to govern and just the stability of the country are I guess, profound. 


Michael Bennet [00:35:09] There's another part of this too Harry, which is that Donald Trump won more votes this time than he did last time. And that's a staggering fact, given the record that he has compiled and the threat that he represents to our democracy is present and will continue. I mean, if he leaves office and decides he wants to run again, or if he goes and buys Newsmax or something like that and engages in creating an alternative reality, he will be achieving things that on their best day, the Russians and the Chinese haven't been able to do in terms of immobilizing our democracy. So, I view Trump very much as a symptom of the problems, not as the cause of all our problems, he's creating a lot of problems, but our democracy is being tested. 


All the democracy around the world is being fundamentally tested, and we are so far we're meeting that test, but there's no assurance that we're going to succeed, unless we make this the project for the rest of our lives, in my view. And unless we commit to this project, what it means to live in a pluralistic society that over time has become more democratic, more fair and more free, and what each of us are doing to make sure that happens, we might not survive. The good news is we've seen it, we've seen it. And so far we've held, and then the second piece I'd say is this has a lot of implications for Joe Biden and for Democrats. I mean, I think the truth is, we should have swept the majority of the Senate. We shouldn't have been close, but it was close. And we need to ask ourselves why it was close. I've got some ideas about why it is. 


Harry Litman [00:36:47] Why was it close? 


Michael Bennet [00:36:48] It was close because the American people need to know that if they vote for Democrats, their economic fortunes are going to be benefited as a result of that. If Mitch McConnell loses, they're going to benefit from that. And we haven't been clear enough about what we want to do, and you put on top of that a general mistrust of government that exists. Actually not something to be understood, but for good reason. Two wars in the Middle East that lasted for 20 years. You know, school systems all over America that aren't delivering for kids. The list is long. And if Democrats are content to be the defenders of bad government, we're going to keep losing these states where we have to win in order to win a majority. Having said all of that, I think Joe Biden has an incredible opportunity because he did win, incredibly, and because Trump and McConnell have colored so far outside the lines of conventional American ideological thought, there is a huge range of things for Joe Biden to pick from that are progressive and incredibly popular. For example, paid family leave, which we had on our ballot today in Colorado, in some of the most conservative counties in Colorado, paid family leave outperformed Donald Trump. So if we could think about what those issues look like, and understand that Joe Biden is in a position to earn the confidence of the American people, that's where he is, and he's got a set of circumstances that can allow him to earn that confidence. If he does what I think is his instinct anyway, we might actually close the chapter on Trumpism more quickly than we might all have thought. That's my optimistic hope. 


Harry Litman [00:38:36] That's a great point, and Fareed, your article in the Post this week talked about some concrete ways in which the lessons of Trump could be turned into particular proposals for reforming U.S. democracy. 


Fareed Zakaria [00:38:51] Yeah, I mean, my point is that Trump in exactly the way Michael was describing, by being such an outlier, by presenting such a challenge and a threat to American democracy. In a way, it's been a very useful experiment where we have understood where the weaknesses in the system lie, and one of the core weaknesses was a lot of American democracy depends not just on laws and rules and core separations of power, but on norms, on practices, on behavior, on good manners, even. Well, some of that we are going to have to codify, because what Trump makes us realize is, there's a danger right here. So maybe when if you want to run for president, frankly, if you want to run for any high office, maybe you have to reveal your tax returns by law, not as a convention. You have to put your assets and businesses into blind trusts. The transition period between the outgoing administration and the incoming is way too long. In Britain, it's one day, in France, it's 10 days. We have this absurd three month period where the incumbent president has all these powers. Maybe they need to be more tightly reined in. Frankly, I have - I know it's in the Constitution, so we can't do anything about this - but the presidential pardon strikes me as the most bizarre monarchical... 


Harry Litman [00:40:06] That's a whole nother episode, isn't it? But yeah.


Fareed Zakaria [00:40:07] Right? It's like, well, where the hell do we get this from? We are a society of laws and rules and institutions, and then, 'oh, but by the way, because Donald Trump likes this guy, he's going to be pardoned, or Bill Clinton likes this guy.' I don't like it at all. I mean, again, I think there would be a way to have a convention around it, saying there is a presidential congressional committee that evaluates these claims and recommends to the president and only when those recommendations are two-thirds majority or something like that, but but I think the key here is we've got to pass some laws to codify some of the things that we were able to get away with by just doing them as norms. Thanks to Trump, they need to be laws. 


Natasha Bertrand [00:40:45] There are so many examples of this, I don't even know where to start. I completely agree. I mean, just in terms of oversight, right? I mean, Trump removed or fired five inspectors general this spring alone. He has appointed acting officials across the government because he's just been abusing his appointment power, and he's the first president to, I think, since Reagan to have more acting than confirmed cabinet secretaries. He has just broken so many norms that have made it clear, I mean, not releasing his tax returns, for example. I mean, so much of what the president does relies a lot on good faith, and him tearing up his presidential records. I mean, there's no mechanism to ensure that a president actually preserves these records. Sure, he can get a stern talking to by NARA, but other than that, there's just no real oversight mechanism. So there are just a lot of things, I think, that need to be thought through after he leaves, because there have just been too many of these norms that have been completely broken, that have dramatically weakened the institutions that we thought would hold firm in the face of a president with authoritarian tendencies. 


Michael Bennet [00:41:55] You know, I can think of a really good name for a bill that would have all of those things in it, and that would be the Drain the Swamp bill, and I - to your point about authoritarianism, to be able to go to rural parts of my state and say, he said he was going to drain the swamp, he never did. We just passed a bill to drain the swamp that prevents people from pardoning themselves, requires them to put their tax returns out, all those the things that Natasha and Fareed were talking about that's just common sense, that tyrants don't do and tyrants don't need. I think there'd be a lot of appeal to that, and I guess I'd add one other thought to this, which is we now know what it looks like when we have a president who's actively engaged in voter suppression. And I continue to wonder why we accept a system of elections where in Colorado it literally takes you 30 seconds to vote no matter when you vote in the process, and in Georgia, you've got to stand in line for three hours, that doesn't make any sense. There's a national civil rights imperative here that we legislate on this, I think. And if you watched that craziness the other night in the White House, a lot of that was just one complaint after another, a litany of complaints that people hadn't had their votes suppressed adequately, and that that had led to Donald Trump losing. That's not a fraudulent election, that's - it's an election. 


Fareed Zakaria [00:43:21] Actually, there was something very fascinating even about the court cases, Michael, as you know, which is traditionally the cases that are brought to courts around election time all have had the following feature: they are efforts to expand the franchise, they are efforts to get people whose votes somehow were missed to be vote. This is the first time I can think of where, as Natasha says, there have been 50 lawsuits, all of which have been designed in some way or the other to disenfranchise voters, to say, 'let's throw out these ballots, let's not count these ballots.' And it's really a kind of new area of law, the law of disenfranchisement. 


Harry Litman [00:43:59] Yeah, and it's not just the law, it's the politics of disenfranchisement, because harkening back to what Senator Bennet said about the changing demographics of the country, it's not simply the lawsuits, but even during the spring, pretty much every legislative maneuver or counter maneuver by Republicans was just with that goal of shrinking the base and the opposite for Democrats. 


Fareed Zakaria [00:44:23] Well, here's the, here's the reason why that's important, Harry. The Republican Party now, in the last eight presidential elections, the Republican candidate has won the popular vote only one time, in 2004 after 9/11 and in the atmosphere of the Iraq war. So the Republican Party at some level has become a minority party, but because of the Electoral College and states, it is able to gain power. That is a very unhealthy dynamic, I mean even for Republicans, because one of the things elections does is it disciplines you, it makes you understand what ideas of yours are popular and what ideas and not. That signal, that feedback loop has been confused for the Republican Party because this doing unpopular things, but then not losing elections as a consequence of it, which is a very weird place to be. 


Harry Litman [00:45:11] I really think that's right. And they're not just there, but they're there by the skin of their teeth, and I think that pushes them to just go forward, not think even about the popular reaction of what is, after all, the majority and just push while they can while the going is good. 


Michael Bennet [00:45:27] That also has implications for Democrats as well. Fareed laid it out, Mitch McConnell goes to work every day doing stuff the American people don't want. And yet he's paid no political price for doing that for a decade or more. And actually, it's not mostly doing stuff, it's mostly stopping stuff, because all he cares about is really putting right wing judges on the courts and cutting taxes every now and then for for the wealthiest people in the country. But we have a much harder job than he has, because we have to build a coalition that will create a durable result, like on climate change, for example. I mean, look at our political system today. If you accept Mitch McConnell's world of getting, you know, allowing health care to be passed and then beating it up, beating it up, beating it up, year after year after year, so you actually don't make the progress you need to make, you're never going to solve climate that way. And this is why these guys really have to be overcome in these more purple states in the country if we're going to create a majority that means something and, if they're going to learn a lesson about what's politically viable or not. We're in a really infelicitous place right now on that score, for the reasons that Fareed said. 


Harry Litman [00:46:40] All right, we are very sadly just about out of time in what's been a fantastic conversation. We have a couple minutes for our final feature on Talking Feds, which is Five Words or Fewer, where we take a question from a listener and each of us has to answer in five words or fewer. Today, the question comes from Nathan Rifkin, who asks, "Do you think Trump will pardon himself?" So, five words or fewer, everybody. 


Natasha Bertrand [00:47:09] Not only himself. 


Harry Litman [00:47:11] Are you going to give you two extra words to the senator or Fareed maybe? 


Michael Bennet [00:47:16] I'm sure he will try. 


Fareed Zakaria [00:47:17] Trump could violate any norm. 


Harry Litman [00:47:19] Although I do want to say that has been like the signal lesson to me of the Trump era. I was thinking when you said it before, my head would go around 360 before like everyone else's and then, he just kept doing it. 


Michael Bennet [00:47:31] Somebody wrote a piece in The Washington Post the year before Trump got elected about how incredibly important the norm of shame is in a democracy. And I think the one thing that's been demonstrated by Donald Trump is how dangerous it is to this society if you elect somebody president who has no shame of any kind. 


Harry Litman [00:47:54] What a great point. All right, my answer to Nathan's question is: yes, but maybe he shouldn't. 


All right, that's all we have time for in this fantastic discussion, I wish it could go on for hours more. Thank you very much to Senator Michael Bennet, Natasha Bertrand and Fareed Zakaria. And thank you very much, listeners, for tuning in to Talking Feds. If you like what you've heard, please tell a friend to subscribe to us on Apple Podcasts or wherever they get their podcasts, and please take a moment to rate and review this podcast. You can follow us on Twitter, @TalkingFedsPod , to find out about future episodes and other Feds-related content. You can check us out on the web, talkingfeds.com , where we have full episode transcripts. And you can look to see our latest offerings on Patreon, where we post discussions about special topics exclusively for supporters. 


And these aren't just outtakes or ad-free episodes, though we do have those there, but original one-on-one discussions with national experts. Just in the last few days, we've posted discussions with Andrew Weissman on the Flynn pardon and on whether Trump should be prosecuted after he leaves office, with Melissa Murray on the Supreme Court order on free exercise, and coming soon, a discussion debate with Jed Sugarmann about whether it's constitutional for Trump to pardon his children and family members. So there's really a wealth of great stuff there, you can go look at it to see what they are and then decide if you'd like to subscribe, that's patreon.com/talkingfeds . Submit your questions to questions@talkingfeds.com , whether it's for Five Words or Fewer, or general questions about the inner-workings of the legal system for our Sidebar segments. Thanks for tuning in, and don't worry: as long as you need answers, the Feds will keep talking. 


Talking Feds is produced by Jennifer Bassett and Rebecca Lowe Patton. Our editor is Justin Wright. David Lieberman and Rosie Don Griffin are our contributing writers. Production assistance by Matt McArdle. Our consulting producer is Andrea Carla-Michaels. Thanks very much to the near-superhuman Garry Kasparov for his explanation of U.S. equality of opportunity through the vantage point of his Russian and Croatian background. Our gratitude, as always, to the amazing Philip Glass, who graciously lets us use his music. Talking Feds is a production of Dalito, LLC. I'm Harry Litman, see you next time.


NATIONAL SECURITY: 50 DAYS OF GREY

Harry Litman [00:00:07] Welcome to Talking Feds, a roundtable that brings together prominent former federal officials and special guests for a dynamic discussion of the most important political and legal topics of the day. I'm Harry Litman. We know that our adversaries view periods of presidential transitions as times of potential instability and vulnerability for the United States. This year, that's particularly true. President Trump only this week, and only 75%, acknowledged the reality of his loss, but the Biden team is already getting a late start and coming in to take control of a government that Trump continues to insist should be his to run for four more years, and many of his 70 million or so followers may agree. Moreover, Trump's post-election purging of critical military and homeland security officials, and their replacement with inexperienced political partisans leave the country short-staffed in these 10 weeks. And who knows what other worrisome moves Trump may be undertaking as part of his bitter end. Pardons anyone? 


All of which makes the current juncture in national security particularly critical. We got a first glimpse of a Biden approach in his introduction of his national security team with the announcement, a slight dig at the president that, "America is Back." But how will the incoming administration attempt to repair the damage, at home and abroad, that the last four years have inflicted? All of this means it's more than high-time for a return trip to the booth in the back of the Double Agent Bar and Grill, to eavesdrop on the candid discussion of some of the most knowledgeable and experienced national security experts in the country. And they are: 


Josh Campbell. Josh is a CNN correspondent covering national security and law enforcement. He's also an adjunct senior fellow with the Center for a New American Security, and the author of the book "Crossfire Hurricane: Inside Donald Trump's War on Justice and the FBI." He previously served for over a decade as an FBI special agent, conducting national security investigations both domestically and overseas, and was appointed Special Assistant to the FBI Director. Josh, thanks so much for being with us today. 


Josh Campbell [00:02:43] Likewise, Harry. Great to be back with you. 


Harry Litman [00:02:45] Kate Brannen. Kate is the Editorial Director of Just Security, an NYU Law based forum on Law, Rights and Security. Kate's writing has appeared in The Atlantic, Foreign Policy, The Guardian, Slate and The Daily Beast, among many others. She previously was a senior reporter covering the Pentagon for foreign policy. Kate, thanks very much for returning to Talking Feds. 


Kate Brannen [00:03:08] Thank you for having me. 


Harry Litman [00:03:10] Sam Vinograd, CNN's national security analyst, the senior adviser at the Biden Institute, and former Senior Advisor to the National Security Adviser under President Obama. Sam is also the author of CNN's Presidential Weekly Briefing, a fellow of the University of Chicago Institute of Politics, and a regular figure on Talking Feds. Sam, very good to see you. 


Sam Vinograd [00:03:34] Great to see you, Harry. 


Harry Litman [00:03:35] And finally, Frank Figliuzzi. Known to everyone who watches MSNBC or listens to this podcast, Frank is a frequent national security contributor to NBC and MSNBC, and he's the former FBI Assistant Director for Counterintelligence. Frank's the author of "The FBI Way: Inside the Bureau's Code of Excellence," set to be published in January 2021, and sure to be a definitive account and a must read about the bureau in the 21st century. Frank, as always, thanks so much for coming. 


Frank Figliuzzi [00:04:14] Hi Harry, we got a lot to talk about. I can tell you what's on my mind is, for once there's some good things to talk about. I think so many times Harry, we're all talking negative, but we've got much of the national security team named by Biden. I'm wondering what everybody thinks about the selections at each of the agencies, and what the selections mean for our national security? 


Sam Vinograd [00:04:36] Well, you know, I know a lot of these nominees, and I can tell you that they're top notch from a professional perspective. When you look at Jake Sullivan, who will be our national security adviser, Avril Haines, nominated for DNI, Ambassador Linda Thomas Greenfield, nominated for US UN, and Alejandro Mayorcas nominated for DHS, and I do think we will get a CIA Director nominee in the coming days as well as SECDEF. All these nominees have one thing in common: they're experts. They're experts, they're apolitical, they have decades of experience, and they they know the president elect very well. Particularly for the national security adviser, I think that will come in quite handy, Jake Sullivan and the president elect have worked together for a long time. 


And, you know, two other quick points to remember about all these individuals: they have very well-known reputations overseas, which is going to come in handy as they seek to repair a lot of the professional relationships from, with our intelligence partners, with other foreign ministers, with their allies. They also have really strong relationships with Congress, and when I look back at the history of the national security apparatus under President Trump, they destroyed the relationship with the legislative branch. Particularly the State Department, Mike Pompeo refused to show up for hearings, refused to get documents, so all these individuals are well known on Capitol Hill. Those that need to be confirmed, I think they will be confirmed, and I think it's a priority for them to get that system back together of legislative oversight and executive branch briefing the Hill, and that sort of thing. So I feel pretty good about all this. 


Josh Campbell [00:06:12] I think one other additional aspect here is when you look at the people that will now be surrounding the incoming president, there is a stark contrast when you look at who President Trump decided to surround himself with, and the first thing that really strikes me, in addition to the expertize that Sam mentioned, is none of these people are firebrands. They don't have that reputation, there have been stories that have been told throughout the past administrations, throughout the Obama administration, where sometimes people would engage in heated conversations in order to forcefully move the ball forward on the policy realm issues that are important to them, but these aren't the type of firebrands, when you think about Pompeo and and others that President Trump has surrounded himself with. So that will be interesting to watch. You know, the old adage, personnel is policy, with President Biden seemingly trying to have a team that is similar to him not only in expertize, but also in demeanor. 


That will be interesting to watch, and then secondly, I think it's also worth noting just how incredibly diverse, this is the initial set of appointees that we now have nominees at this point. But just looking at the diversity, I mean, look at the the next potential UN ambassador, obviously an African-American female, someone who - her own story, talking about being at LSU, Louisiana State University, a college when she was young that did not want her there. A college that was court ordered, there was a mandate that it had to take people of color, and so that started her story. You look at the nominee to lead the Department of Homeland Security, this will be, should he be confirmed, the first immigrant to lead the DHS, which I think is not only important from a diversity standpoint, but also the symbolism of kind of how that agency has been accused of straying from its mission, especially as it pertains to immigrants. I think that will be of importance. So you just look at that slate of candidates, I think it's something that's quite different than what we've seen over the last four years. 


Kate Brannen [00:08:03] Frank, I was going to say too, Sam talked about rebuilding relationships with the Hill and overseas partners, but also there's an enormous amount of just internal rebuilding that has to be done. Morale is terrible at a lot of different agencies, at the State Department obviously, I know at CIA and other intel agencies people have sort of been waiting with one foot out the door to see who's going to come in. You don't have a CIA director yet, but I know with Avril Haines, it's like a huge boost to the intelligence community that there's going to be a professional, there's going to be someone who's apolitical. And I think that the selection alone will do a lot for morale, but then once these people actually come in and start their jobs too, and just start to rebuild relationships with the White House, but also within the departments themselves, and I was thinking today, I was reading a Politico story about Tom Donilon, who I know is Sam's old boss, possibly leading the CIA, and it said sort of one of the knocks against him was that he was a demanding boss who made you work hard. And I thought, well, that's like, that shows you... 


Sam Vinograd [00:09:02] I'm not sure why that's a bad thing. 


Kate Brannen [00:09:05] Exactly, it's not really a bad thing, and it just shows you the caliber of people we're talking about versus the unvetted folks that Trump would bring in, that the media would then vet, and like true skeletons would come out of their closets that made them highly unqualified to do their jobs. And as we look at who he's putting in place at the Pentagon now, are completely inexperienced for the jobs they're being asked to do. So, I mean, the caliber of professional expertize is just it's just really striking. 


Frank Figliuzzi [00:09:33] Yeah, those themes of experience, maturity and as Josh said diversity, looking like the nation they're securing, looking like the world we're helping to secure, they jumped out at me. I'm focused on CIA, and Sam mentioned CIA, and I'm also concerned about FBI because there's been so much thrown about that maybe Trump in his final weeks will bounce Chris Wray. So, Sam, at CIA, you think Jeanne is headed out? Is that what you're thinking? 


Sam Vinograd [00:10:03] I think the president-elect Biden will likely nominate a new CIA director, yes. I don't think that that's anything about Director Haspel specifically, I think that the president elect will likely want to have his own nominee in there. There are two leading contenders whose names have been bouncing around the media who I know well, Tom Donilon and Michael Morell. Both of them bring different skill sets to bear and would be excellent. But I do, I do think that Director Haspel likely won't continue her tenure into the Biden administration. FBI director Wray I can't, I can't speak to. And now of course, we don't know who Trump is going to fire next, in the next 50 or whatever days, so I don't know if Director Haspel will make it, nor whether Chris Wray will until January 20th at noon. 


Frank Figliuzzi [00:10:45] We both came from the bureau Josh, what are you thinking about the bureau, and Wray, and what should happen there? 


Josh Campbell [00:10:50] Yeah, just as Sam mentioned, I mean, everyone's kind of on firing watch right now, waiting to see who comes next and in talking to people inside the FBI, one thing that was interesting, this is about a week ago. This was in the wake of the president getting rid of the secretary of defense, and I was asking people inside the bureau, well, what do you thinking, are you worried? At that point, one person said something that was very interesting, and that is that they are expecting or anticipating anything because the president is obviously very unpredictable when it comes to certain - well, when it comes to a lot of things, but the one barometer for the FBI was what happens to the CIA director, and that is, if the president - President Trump, fires Haspel, then as someone described to me, then we start to worry because the rationale for removing Gina Haspel, presumably from all of our reporting, has been the president is unhappy that these intelligence chiefs are not doing his political bidding, to rid out the so-called deep state. And basically, Haspel and Wray would be in the same bucket of wanting to get rid of them. Now, to be sure, to fire someone this late in the game would be an act of spite, essentially, right? 


You're on your way out the door, and what's fascinating, comparing the CIA director to the FBI director, you look throughout history, most presidents have wanted to bring in their own CIA director. There have been exceptions obviously, with George Tenet and the like, but, and even John Brennan, who recently wrote in his new book that he had proposed during his time, and that the White House, maybe a seven year term for CIA director to try to extend that and possibly move them beyond administrations. That was shot down immediately, and one of the rationales that I guess came from people both in Congress and at the White House was unlike an FBI director, the CIA director is also involved in covert action, and that's an important part that has to resemble the president's own policies, and so you want someone that will do your own bidding. 


The FBI director is different, because obviously I mean, as you know, Frank, as well, being the FBI, you don't wake up every day wondering, 'OK, who is the president today and how is that going to impact my work?' It just simply doesn't work that way. But, long story short is that people inside the FBI are worried at this point, not because they think that the FBI director has done anything wrong, but just, now the president basically has two arrows left in his quiver, and that is to fire people, and to pardon people. Those are basically his major centers of power right now. We know the pardons are probably coming, I'm sure we're gonna talk about that, but being able to fire people, the president who had a TV show that was based around firing people may be one less dramatic act to try to clear the decks. 


Frank Figliuzzi [00:13:19] Yeah, I'm a staunch advocate, no surprise, of maintaining the 10 year term for FBI director. We've had enough damage and perception of partisanship among the public, largely driven by Trump. And so we don't we don't need this anymore. It erodes the mission of the bureau, and I would be an advocate even to send that message even stronger, if perhaps Trump fires Wray, I would like to see Biden say, 'you know what, I believe so much in this 10 year term, I'm bringing Wray back to finish his term.' Kate, one of the things I have not given a lot of thought to is the issue of whether or not a CIA director should be cabinet or sub-cabinet, and it seems to me when you have a DNI who allegedly oversees the intelligence community, that that's your cabinet level person. What are your - have you given thought to this whole issue of who's cabinet and who's not? 


Kate Brannen [00:14:07] I haven't thought about that. I think so much of it does boil down to personalities, although some of that is dependent on the president himself. But just looking at Trump, it doesn't really matter if you're cabinet or not cabinet, or if you're - if you look at Pompeo, who has been such a bull within the Trump cabinet, it didn't matter if he was CIA director, secretary of state, he was sort of the loudest guy in Trump's ear, and it didn't matter the position he held. And I think that that probably translates to different administrations, Sam might know better than me, but if a president connects better with his defense secretary than, y'know, whoever the CIA director than that person is more influential, so I feel like influence does really come down to relationships at the end of the day. 


Sam Vinograd [00:14:48] I would say I think it's just very different functionality. So, I certainly understand and we all know well, why the DNI was created, why the CIA in many ways reports up through the DNI in a lot of ways. But having been in the situation room with both the director of National Intelligence and the CIA director, they do perform different functions around the table. I think keeping the CIA directors at a cabinet level makes sense, keeping the CIA directors a member of the NSC, versus just packaging that all up with the DNI, still makes a lot of sense, Frank. And y'know, we again, we're waiting to see who's named as CIA director, if it is Michael Morell or Tom Donilon. They understand that, Tom Donilon has a very close relationship with the president elect, but Tom Donilon used to run those NSC meetings, so he knows what you go to the DNI for and where the CIA director comes in. 


It is interesting, but the president elect has already said that the position of U.N. ambassador would become a cabinet level position again, and I was thrilled to hear that because under President Trump, and with I think Mike Pompeo's urging, that position was relegated to reporting to the secretary of state. So the UN ambassador did not get a seat at the table, our current U.N. ambassador, Kelly Kraft, has no diplomatic experience that I can think of. And what President-elect Biden has done is name a woman with 30, I think 35 years, 34 years in the Foreign Service, deep experience with refugees, migration, African affairs, but he's nominated Ambassador Thomas Greenfield for this role, and has said that it will become a cabinet position again, so I think that we'll see the cabinet kind of return to what it's supposed to be, which is full of experts representing all the instruments of American power. 


Frank Figliuzzi [00:16:28] So I would just throw this in: we still haven't heard, with regard to the attorney general position, and I I want to just point that out because I view the attorney general role as part of the national security team, in that they so often have to weigh in. Not only do they oversee the FBI, that's part of the intelligence, but also they just show frequently on the legality of actions and techniques that it's a critical role as well. Let me ask you this, have you ever given thought -  maybe there's a degree of hubris in doing this, but - let's say you're now, your picked for one of these agencies or cabinet positions. This is no easy task, people are breathing a sigh of relief. Yes, Biden's in, yes he's got an experienced team. But my god, the work they have cut out for them at these agencies, even just undoing what's been done. So, go through and pick an agency, go through what it would be like to head DHS or, or even CIA, what you start doing, what's your goal? What's your objective? 


Sam Vinograd [00:17:22] Well, I can take the NSC, and others can chime in on others, but let's also remember that the transition process under President Trump to the president-elect is certainly not doing the incoming administration any favors. I am not entirely confident that the outgoing administration is going to give Biden's team the best quality material and information that's possible. And that hasn't happened before. So, you know, we have this issue of whether President Trump's transcripts on the codeword server are going to be given to Biden and this and that. So, there's that handicap, and so to a certain degree, the incoming administration could be hamstrung by an inadequate transition, which means when they come into power, they're going to have to be putting the jigsaw puzzle together, and trying to figure out everything that happened before they came in, and that's what we try to avoid during the transition process. Internally, the national security team is going to have to reestablish a national security process. 


So, again, you have experts running these departments and agencies, but getting the NSC running again, having substantive meetings with principals and with deputies, getting the PDB back up and running, which I have no doubt they can do. But I mean, it's these things I just took for granted in government that they're going to have to reestablish operationally. One of the biggest hurdles is going to be recruitment and retention within the federal government. How many quality people were pushed out or left? My dear friend Cathy Russell, Ambassador Cathy Russell is going to be - head of the office that hires everybody. Just getting the right people back into the government is going to be a big focus for the White House. And then finally, I think for the NSC, reestablishing credible policymaking is likely going to be a key priority. And you do that by having informed substantive analysis, ready for the national security advisor and the president, but also just spending a lot of time with international counterparts saying, what we said, that America's back. Here we are, you know us, you know how we operate. Let's get back to work. So I think that external engagement piece is going to be key at the NSC. 


Josh Campbell [00:19:20] I can take the Justice Department. I think that there is so much to be done there, on so many different levels, and just to to name a few, I mean, to start out, you've had under President Trump, a Justice Department that has been so close to the president in a way that the norms and traditions dictate that it should not be. I mean, if you think about what the Justice Department is and its component entities, federal law enforcement, these are agencies that have the ability to deny someone their liberty, to arrest people, for putting handcuffs on people, right? Denying them their liberty is such an incredible power, and so the theme, at least throughout most of the modern existence of the Justice Department and its component agencies, has been to ensure that you are apolitical, that you are not seen as in the club of a particular White House. And yet what we've seen with the president, time and time again, President Trump, is to try to constantly blur or even bulldoze that line of demarcation there to separate the political entity, the White House, from these institutions of justice. And so that will take repair, and I think President elect Biden has already signaled that in a sense, saying that one question came up about, well, what about these investigations in the Trump world that may come up during your administration? 


And he said, I'm not going to be making those decisions, the Justice Department's going to be making those decisions. And so that in and of itself shouldn't be a novel idea, but for folks looking for independence, that's a breath of fresh air. But then also very quickly, I mean, think about two important constituencies for the Justice Department. First, the American public writ large, people have to have confidence in these institutions. The president has been engaged in an all out campaign of assault, trying to diminish the integrity of these organizations, calling them crooks, the deep state, basically questioning in the minds of American citizens whether the FBI and other agencies are actually fair in what they do, and so that will take repairing. But then also, and maybe this isn't thought about as a top priority, but I think it's an important one. There's a constituency out there in law enforcement across the United States who obviously look to the Department of Justice. Sometimes there's, it's not all Kumbaya. There's some rocky relationship sometimes between local and federal law enforcement, but in the main, you think about the attorney general as the nation's top cop, who is trying to at least set the table for other agencies about what the Department of Justice might fund, programs, obviously trying to get law enforcement through this turmoil that we've seen in 2020, all these questionable incidents of excessive use of force. 


And so how will the Justice Department treat those issues with improving policing and reform in America, which is all obviously tied together because the ultimate goal is to ensure public confidence. Bottom line, a lot of work there to be done. This isn't a partisan statement to say this, but I don't recall in any administration, at least in my lifetime, following politics and following government that we've ever sat in the aftermath of a presidency and talked so much about how we're going to rebuild these institutions that maybe we've taken for granted, and to try to get them through a very partisan period of turmoil, that is just unprecedented. 


Kate Brannen [00:22:20] Frank, I ask, since you asked the question, I jotted down my thoughts about the Pentagon, and then I realized, like, my list could just go on and on about sort of the steps that could be taken there. I think first, like figuring out where the bodies are buried, what happened, whether it's weapons contracts that might not be above board, or whatever might have gone on within the department that hasn't been reported on, sort of figuring out what - especially in these final days, which when he's appointed these sort of political apparatchiks to take over the Pentagon, like what have they been up to? But clearly, reaffirming a commitment to NATO is huge. Trump has all but left NATO, but that's sort of at the top of the list. Reestablishing civil military relations and civil control of the military, sort of putting professionals in the policy positions. I think as much as Trump sort of talks about, 'they're my generals,' he completely dismisses the advice of the Joint Chiefs, the president reestablishing that relationship. 


Trump in these final days has changed troop levels in Iraq and Somalia and Afghanistan, but he hasn't talked at all about what the mission is, so I think reestablishing what these missions are overseas for our troops and then deciding troop levels based on that, I think sending a really strong message that white supremacy won't be tolerated within the military. I think that's been allowed to be stoked and tolerated on some level, and getting a grip on where that problem is at. And then another one, reaffirming an acceptance and welcoming of the LGBTQ community is huge, and that's probably true across agencies. And then also a really simple one, but I think really powerful symbolically is if a troop is killed overseas, making that trip to Dover Air Force Base, which Trump hasn't done in over a year or more. There's so much to be done, and yet there are so many - Trump doesn't even perform the basics of government, and so there are so many like, very easy things you can do, I think. 


Frank Figliuzzi [00:24:09] Yeah, there is so much hard work ahead for this agency and community leaders. I really think DHS, in partnership with whoever the attorney general is, is going to really have to tackle extremism and domestic terrorism because that is not going away. If we have a president that launches a media platform, 70 million people voted for him, he immediately declares he's a candidate again, we've got QAnon and Proud Boys and Boogaloo and all of them and violent militias, that won't go away. And I think it's time to tackle this topic of domestic terrorism, what it means, whether there are gaps in the law that need to be addressed. And then y'know, Kate mentioned finding where the bodies were buried. How about where they're not buried? How about the bodies that Trump has put throughout these agencies, and those who signed off on things like separating infants from their mothers at the border? Where are all of these people in the fabric of these agencies, weeding them out, figuring out legally how you can do that, or not, asking for resignations of everyone, and then this issue of who Trump has just planted at NSA, or at DHS, and at the Pentagon, how do you go about doing that? And obviously, if there's a senior level person that serves at the pleasure of the president, fine. But what about below that? How do you, how do you get rid of those people? 


Sam Vinograd [00:25:32] An interesting phenomenon here, and I will note, I think Congress has a decision to make after January 20th, which is how much time do they want to spend conducting oversight of what federal departments and agencies did these last four years? And I feel sick every time I hear about these children. We still can't find their parents, but just how much time does Congress want to spend, separate from any law enforcement issues from an oversight perspective, looking at what happened these last four years? But, Frank, you mention what's happening on the personnel front right now. We have two different phenomena at play right now. One, we have President Trump engaging in burrowing of political appointees, which is a term used when you kind of convert political appointees into career or civil servant slots. That happens in every administration, not at a huge degree, but it happens. I'm worried that President Trump is going to do that at a much higher level, which makes it harder to fire these people once President elect Biden comes into office. 


But two, President Trump issued this executive order in October, that didn't make a whole lot of news because there so much else going on, in which he created a new class of federal employees, and they're called Schedule F, which could create a lot of problems for current career civil servants and the protections that they currently have if they're converted to this new class. And it could be a place where all of the, I don't even know the appropriate term, but all these political appointees under Trump are put into this new category of employment so that they get to stick around after Trump leaves. So, we're kind of in an unprecedented place on the personnel front, and then of course, we have him firing people from the Defense Policy Board, I mean, Madeleine Albright and Jane Harman, really? That's your hill to die on, you're going to fire them?


And having political acolytes running the transition process, so the personnel funny business at play right now could have lasting consequences. President-elect Biden could unwind this executive order on the schedule F category when he comes into office, but the burrowed employees, like the new general counsel of the NSA, Michael Ellis, who has a very controversial and concerning past - and by the way, not a heck of a lot of intelligence experience, but it will be much more difficult to remove him from his role because Trump converted him into a career slot. 


Frank Figliuzzi [00:27:51] My God, it's yeah, it's a daunting situation. Josh may appreciate this, I can recall a director that I worked for when I was AD, when you couldn't really jettison someone from the bureau. You would, I can remember a director saying about someone in that position, 'put him somewhere he can't harm anything.' And so it was I thought, if we can't fire him, off he goes to some tiny field office somewhere, never to be heard from again. 


Josh Campbell [00:28:21] It's an important point that you make, and this is what gives me a little bit of hope in this whole thing, and that is that you can shuffle people around, as long as they don't lose their same schedule or rate, in which case if you demote someone and they can say, 'well, you retaliated against me for political reasons,' but for example, with the general counsel for NSA, that was done even without the support of the director of the NSA. So, you know that this was, there were some possible shenanigans going on there. But I read there was one quote in The Washington Post where someone at NSA had actually said that, we'll find this person in nice office somewhere where he won't lose a cent in pay, but he won't be able to cause that same kind of damage. So we'll see, but what's fascinating is the fact that we're even having this conversation. And I think this gets to a larger part that President Trump and some of his allies have simply, the actions that they have taken has resulted in them no longer getting the benefit of the doubt with any action. 


I mean, you look at some of the people that he sent NSA and over to the Pentagon, these are some of the same people that were involved in Devin Nunez's so-called midnight run, right, when he was hell-bent on trying to uncover the deep state in all of this. And they're just not honest brokers, in my mind, as a journalist who looks at this and says, well, is this person trustworthy? Can we trust them? Well, what do you do? You look at their pattern of activity, and at least that pattern would dictate that anything that takes place, we now have to scrutinize very heavily. And I would presume that not only the media, but also the incoming Biden administration will be doing just that. 


Frank Figliuzzi [00:29:46] Hey, Kate, do you think there is any method to this madness of Trump planting people in these various positions or, what's going on? What's  he got up his sleeve, anything? 


Kate Brannen [00:29:55] I don't think there's a clear answer yet. There are lots of theories being floated, one is just venal vindictiveness on Trump's part. I think that probably played into Esper losing his job, he didn't back them up on protecting confederate-named bases, and so Trump didn't view him as loyal enough. Which we saw after the impeachment trial was over, trump cleaned house of the people he thought crossed him in that experience. But then it's also sort of whether it's Kash Patel, or Ezra Cohen-Watnick or Anthony Tarta, they're leaving government with a notch on their resume that's completely undeserved, that, I think, translates directly into private sector dollars. I was the undersecretary of defense for policy. I mean, that's something that you can cash in on, and when it comes to corruption and just pure greed, I think that that's often at play with these guys. But you also, like I mentioned, the troop numbers, there are these policy things happening. There was a report, I think, last week about the options on bombing Iran being considered. So I think people are still holding their breath to see if this is part of a policy, foreign policy push that's going to happen at the end that hands Biden a even worse hand. We're going to mess up things even further in Iran, or whether it's Iraq or Afghanistan, and you will have an even harder problem to solve. I think that's a running theory that that also, I think holds a lot of weight as well. 


Frank Figliuzzi [00:31:16] I agree. I think it is all of the above. I think it's vindictiveness, he's firing people and then planting people who will perhaps facilitate real ugliness in the next couple of weeks. We've already heard Trump is asking people, 'hey, can I attack Iran?' We've heard now in the news, just in these last   few hours that an Iranian nuclear scientist was assassinated, somebody green lighted that. Now, that's been happening for years, but... 


Sam Vinograd [00:31:37] We don't know if that was the US, but looks like Israel. 


Frank Figliuzzi [00:31:39] I'm not saying it was the US, but you know that even if it was, it was the Israelis, they likely ran it by somebody. But we'll see. And also, just getting rid of information, figuring out where the dirt is, all of these positions could be positioned to do that. 


I know Harry likes to do Five Words or Less, where we're challenged to concisely respond in five words or less to a question. And the question Harry's given us is, who's next to get pardoned? I'll take the first crack at this with my five words: Assange, Snowden. God help us. I, that's, that's where I'm at. Those are the two people I do not want to see pardoned, and I will, my head will explode if that happens. But, what are your thoughts? 


Josh Campbell [00:33:10] I think in four words, I'll answer that question with a question, and that is probably an easier way of handling it and that is: who won't he pardon? I think there's going to be a very long list on the way out the door, which will probably include his own name. 


Frank Figliuzzi [00:33:23] He's going to try to do himself, I know he is. And that gets into the whole question of legal scholars far, far greater than my legal training who think he can't pardon himself, but they'll try, and maybe even ask Pence to do it for one or two days as president. 


Sam Vinograd [00:33:39] I'll say: Trump friends and family list. 


Frank Figliuzzi [00:33:45] Friends and family discount, there you go. 


Kate Brannen [00:33:48] I'll say: Paul Manafort, cause why not? 


Frank Figliuzzi [00:33:53] Yeah, he's done he's done his time, that's for sure. 


Sam Vinograd [00:33:56] Oh, man, I can't believe we're even laughing about this stuff because it's just so terrible, but that's the point that we're at, right? 


Josh Campbell [00:34:02] Well, this is the one area, too, that we - he's unpredictable, but I think we can say, probably with high confidence, that there will be a list. And how lengthy that is, we don't know. But we talk about this nonstop, I mean, both from a national security legal standpoint, and that is Trump world does have significant legal exposure, and if the president is smart in the sense that this whole campaign of manipulation, manipulating the public into believing the FBI, the Justice Department, Mueller, every three letter agency, basically anyone who doesn't agree with him is corrupt enough to get him, that narrative resonates with a large segment of his base, and now a pardon is a way to seek to capitalize off of trying to portray himself as a victim. 


And so whereas most of us will probably look at that and say, well, that's a corrupt act to try to pardon yourself and to pardon other people based on their interactions and relationship with you, what he will say is, look, I've been the victim. These people have been out to get me, and so that's what makes this so frustrating. This isn't a Clinton pardoning Marc Rich at the end of his time in office, which was largely seen as corrupt. There was no way to explain that away. This is something President Trump is going to try to explain away, and sadly, I think that there's going be a large segment that buys it. 


Kate Brannen [00:35:14] He's used it, I mean, to influence behavior. I mean, the promise of a pardon, I think, has shaped whether it's Paul Manafort, Michael Flynn. It's been dangled, he's enticed the behavior he's wanted out of them, which is essentially to keep quiet or not cooperate, and now they're getting rewarded. 


Josh Campbell [00:35:30] Can I ask Frank a question? So, just because I know that you have the new book coming out on The FBI Way, I'm curious, you're in the shoes of an investigator who spent all this time putting together a case, working with prosecutors. You have someone convicted, you have someone at times pleading guilty, and then now with the wave of the hand, the president does something that he is allowed to do by law. But how does that square with the FBI way and how agents and analysts are taught to comport themselves and to see the law? 


Frank Figliuzzi [00:35:58] Boy, I used to, I used to mentor agents and analysts and tell them, listen, don't get upset that your case was declined, or don't get upset because there's always a larger purpose, and maybe the White House has grabbed this great espionage case and is going to parlay it into a diplomatic deal. That's a good thing, don't get worried about it. But here we are talking about your investigative work, perhaps the lifetime case, just being vaporized, right? The blow to morale, as you know, is just horrible, but I also would encourage those personnel to package that case up and go approach a local D.A., or county or state prosecutor, and see if they can find a way to get that charged some other way. And, look, it's going to happen, and I think it will put in start contrast the fact that new leadership is coming in, and justice and normalcy can be restored. 


Harry Litman [00:36:57] That's our episode for today. I hope you enjoyed being a fly on the wall in the back of the Double Agent Bar and Grill, listening to the most knowledgeable national security professionals compare notes on the very critical issues at this vital time for the country's security agencies. Thank you very much to Frank, Kate, Sam and Josh, and thank you very much, listeners, for tuning in to Talking Feds. If you like what you've heard, please tell a friend to subscribe to us on Apple Podcasts, or wherever they get their podcasts, and please take a moment to rate and review this podcast. You can follow us on Twitter, @TalkingFedsPod , to find out about future episodes and other Feds-related content. You can check us out on the web, talkingfeds.com , where we have full episode transcripts. 


And, you can look to see our latest offerings on Patreon, where we post discussions about special topics exclusively for supporters, such as the one we just posted on the six month anniversary of the unrest in Minneapolis with a civic leader of that town, Duchesne Drew, and with Andrew Weissman about his op-ed in The New York Times calling for an investigation and potentially prosecution of the president by the Biden administration, and also discussing the pardon of Michael Flynn. So there's really a wealth of great stuff there, you can go look at it to see what they are and then decide if you'd like to subscribe. Submit your questions to questions@talkingfeds.com , whether it's for Five Words or Fewer, or general questions about the inner workings of the legal system for our Sidebar segments. Thanks for tuning in, and don't worry: as long as you need answers, the Feds will keep talking. 


Talking Feds is produced by Jennifer Bassett and Rebecca Lowe Patton. Our editor is Justin Wright. David Lieberman and Rosie Don Griffin are our contributing writers. Production assistance by Matt McArdle. Our consulting producer is Andrea Carla Michaels. Our gratitude, as always, to the amazing Philip Glass, who graciously lets us use his music. Talking Feds is a production of Dalito, LLC. I'm Harry Litman, see you next time.

GOODBYE RUDY TUESDAY

Brad Raffensperger [00:00:00] "The numbers reflect the verdict of the people, not a decision by the secretary of state's office, or of courts, or of either campaigns. 


Harry Litman [00:00:17] Welcome to Talking Feds, a round table that brings together prominent former federal officials and special guests for a dynamic discussion of the most important political and legal topics of the day. I'm Harry Litman. So spoke Brad Raffensperger, the Georgia Republican secretary of state, in certifying the election and the award of the state's 16 electoral votes for Joe Biden, whose path to the White House is certain, however many obstacles and mud pies the petulant child in the White House tries to throw on it. The president continues to make preposterous claims about the election, abetted by lackeys in the Senate and executive branch who indulge his mounting fictions about the results. He now has summoned Michigan legislators to the White House to pressure them to torpedo the result in Michigan, and their careers, by unilaterally substituting Trump electors for the Biden slate chosen by the voters. 


As courts, and all occupants of the real world, increasingly shoot down his pernicious fantasies, Trump's bizarro world lawyers, who are the last of the palace guards, keep doubling down, most recently calling for electors in all swing states to just be certified for the president. Their record in court now stands at 1-32, and they've been forced into a series of humiliating concessions that in fact, they have no evidence whatsoever to sustain the president's grandiose claims. It would all be a sort of low comedy, with Rudy Giuliani's hair dye running down his cheek, except for the grave consequences: Trump continues to ignore the virus that has set daily records in new cases, spiking now to nearly 200,000 and hospitalizations and has killed 250,000 Americans. And he prevents the president elect and his incoming administration from a running start in containing the virus themselves, while he rids his own government of the few remaining truth tellers who by definition are disloyal. 


To quote Mitt Romney, the one courageous senator from his own party, "it is difficult to imagine a worse, more undemocratic action by a sitting American president." Meanwhile, Biden has tried to maintain an air of confidence and unconcern. He's moving forward with basic transition steps, including the appointment of key advisers, but he and his team are increasingly rankled, and he warned Monday that the result of Trump's blockage is that more people will die. It's not clear, however, whether the Biden team has either the political or the legal levers to force matters. It's hard to foretell the exact time and outline of the end game, but the game, in fact, will end in no later than 10 weeks. Trump's position is hopeless, and the real question is how much damage he can do with his various tantrums on the way out. 


To size up this and the whole state of play at Thanksgiving 2020, we have a terrific group of good friends and charter Feds. Starting with Frank Figliuzzi, a frequent national security contributor to NBC and MSNBC. Frank is the former FBI assistant director for counterintelligence and the author of The FBI Way: Inside the Bureau's Code of Excellence, set to be published early next year. Frank, good to see you. 


Frank Figliuzzi [00:03:43] Always a pleasure, Harry. Thanks. 


Harry Litman [00:03:45] Paul Fishman, currently a partner at Arnold and Porter. He is the former US attorney for the district of New Jersey, and prior to that held multiple senior positions, both at the district of New Jersey and in main justice. Paul, thanks for coming back. 


Paul Fishman [00:04:01] Nice to be back Harry, thanks. 


Harry Litman [00:04:02] And Amy Jeffress, also a partner of Paul's at the law firm of Arlen Porter. She served as the Justice Department attaché to the US embassy in London, and she was a former counselor to the attorney general, and a long time assistant US attorney in the District of Columbia. Amy, welcome as always. 


Amy Jeffress [00:04:21] Thanks, Harry. Great to be here. 


Harry Litman [00:04:23] All right, so let's start with the infant in chief, who actually has been mainly staying out of public view, but has surfaced with occasional lunatic tweets. I want to mainly set them to the side and focus on his actions, and inactions, and Trump's purging of people he perceives as disloyal at Department of Homeland Security and the Pentagon, including Chris Krebs, who ran the DHS's cybersecurity branch. Frank, let me focus on you first, is there a practical impact on national security? We know people change positions toward the end of an administration. Other than a new illustration of his pique and pettiness, are these things to worry about? 


Frank Figliuzzi [00:05:04] The short answer is yes. These are not insignificant moves and there is something afoot here. If you look at the Pentagon and the replacement of folks who he's kicked out there, you find like minded people that might facilitate or enable, or at least not push back, if he were to suggest a military action on Iran, for example. 


Harry Litman [00:05:27] Which he has discussed apparently, right? 


Frank Figliuzzi [00:05:30] It's been reported that he has asked his people whether that's something he can do. And then if you look at pulling troops out of Afghanistan or other places in the Middle East, again, you find people that might be amenable to that. So people who think this is just merely bitter, vengeful firing of people need to understand that he's replacing those people with folks who might be able to help him action some pretty scary things in the remaining weeks. Similarly, with Chris Krebs and the resignation of Krebs' deputy at CISA, you see now a vacuum of leadership, not only with regard to what was done to protect our election, of which the half that story hasn't been told yet because it's highly classified. 


Harry Litman [00:06:14] It's a good story. 


Frank Figliuzzi [00:06:15] Yeah, it's going to be an incredible story of a victory over sophisticated adversaries. But moving forward, we have the vacuum of leadership at an organization that's part of the larger team that that suppresses propaganda from foreign governments, that stops hacking from adversaries, and so it's all of that kind of propaganda machine that Trump needs right now to pump up his stupid, crazy theories about the election. So I am very concerned about, about him basically burning the house down before he leaves. 


Harry Litman [00:06:47] Are serious observers, people you talk to, worried about actual military action? 


Frank Figliuzzi [00:06:52] I think enough people around him, even those who might be new to the job, are telling him the timing is awful, that there are repercussions to that, that the simultaneous effort of pulling troops out of the Middle East while attacking Iran is a particularly bad idea. And I think reason is prevailing, but again, I don't know the degree to which anybody can control him.


Harry Litman [00:07:15] Yeah. All right, same question to Amy and Paul, but about the Department of Justice and Trump's stonewalling of the transition. Amy, I know you were directly involved in transition and Paul having done everything at the Department of Justice and been there even before me. As a practical matter, is this just a kind of a bother or does this have serious consequences as well? 


Amy Jeffress [00:07:39] I would say that we don't know. The problem is that it could be a very serious national security problem if there is information in the threat briefing that is not reaching the right people now who are going to be in positions of power in just two months time and are going to be needing to make decisions and they are going to start making decisions as of January 20th, right? So if they don't have the lead time to get up to speed on the information that they need to know when they are in those positions, it's potentially very distressing. And this came out of the 9/11 report, right? The 9/11 report found that the delay in transition because of the Bush Gore election controversy was harmful, and didn't allow George Bush to have the right people up to speed and in place soon enough to catch the intelligence threats and the intelligence information that came through in the summer of 2001. So if you think about it, too, that was the summer of 2001 that they started getting those bits of intelligence, and the attacks, of course, were in September. That's months and months after January. So it takes a long time to get your team up to speed. And every day that the Trump administration delays a peaceful and effective transition could cause damage to national security. But we don't know now what we won't know next summer. That's the problem. 


Harry Litman [00:08:53] What about the workaday world of the DOJ, the prosecutions, the defenses and the like? Can it basically function fine with a last minute handoff on the 20th, Paul, or is this really going to be hobbling the incoming folks? 


Paul Fishman [00:09:10] It depends on the kinds of cases you're talking about now. So I, it's funny because when you become a United States attorney, which I did in October of 2009, there is no similar transition process. So I walked into my office having been just confirmed and gotten sworn in on October 14th of 2009, and there were lots of briefing books for me on all of the important cases that were going on in the office. But I couldn't read them all at the same time, and so it was up to my staff at that point to come into my office, say this is the thing you need to pay attention to right now. There's no startup time. The system in Washington is designed not to present that kind of problem to the president of the United States, the attorney general, United States, the secretary of state, the head of the CIA. 


They're supposed to come in when there's supposed to be a staff there on day one that spent the last several weeks getting up to speed so that no balls get dropped on those first few days or in those first several weeks and months. And what's happening now is the people who are on these agency review teams, called ARTs, are trying to interview, would like to interview, people who are currently in place to find out what's going on. What do we have to be worried about? What money has to get spent, what hasn't been spent yet, what intelligence are you getting, what decisions have to be made in what cases, and they're going to get nothing. And so, you wouldn't run a business this way, and you can't possibly run a government with people's lives at stake this way. 


Harry Litman [00:10:32] And U.S. attorney is different. As we know, any boob can be U.S. attorney because there is a whole career staff there to take care of things. I can tell you, the day I first arrived, before I knew where the bathroom was, I was handed a piece of paper and told I had to go to a press conference and announce that the department was turning down a huge civil rights case. There nevertheless had been stewards all the way through, here we're not talking just about the top person, but everyone below. What about, and Amy, what Paul's talking about, he's talking about the things they do, you have a sense, a concrete sense of what they are, right? I mean, what tangible conduct is not going on now because they can't get in the door? 


Amy Jeffress [00:11:15] What the transition would normally be able to do is send their teams, they're called landing teams, and they literally land in the agencies. Now, in the COVID times, people would not be getting keys to Department of Justice offices like they would in a normal transition, but you would be able to meet with the career people, and meet with the outgoing political appointees, and get briefed up on the issues that, as Paul gave some examples, that are hot and need to be the focus of the incoming teams. So you would be able to do those things. But I want to just add a little bit of levity to this discussion, because I would say that the vast majority of the work done by the Department of Justice is done at the career level, and the vast majority of the work doesn't rise up to the political leadership, and those career attorneys are day after day doing their work and trying to ignore the noise, and so I wouldn't be too alarmed about the day to day work and the effectiveness of government. But I am most concerned about national security because I think that's where the government uniquely possesses classified information that might be really necessary and depending, again, on events that might take place in the first couple of months of the administration. So, I'm more concerned about that than I am about DOJ, to be honest. 


Harry Litman [00:12:29] And as Frank's already explained to me, it's also a time that adversaries, even had there been a smooth transition, look to for relative instability in the government, and may be doing mischief of which we might be unaware. So let's just focus on Biden. Does he have a move here? Can he go to court? Does he just basically have to wait, hope the political pressure from the likes of Romney increases and somehow that pierces through? What is he even contemplating now to try to get through the blockade? 


Paul Fishman [00:13:02] Here's the problem, Harry. And this is an awful situation for this country to be in. Biden won the popular vote overwhelmingly. He won the electoral vote, and he even won enough of the swing states by a sufficiently large margin, that none of this should be in question. So what Trump and his lawyers are now resorting to, is basically asking public officials, like the county canvassers in Michigan, the Republican secretary of state in Georgia, the state canvasing board in Michigan, to basically stop doing their jobs. They're asking them to do something that nobody has ever done before in American history, which is from the White House, say to public officials, you have an oath to uphold the Constitution. You have an oath to uphold state law. The law imposes certain duties on you to certify the votes. They're basically asking people to say, no, I'm not going to do my job. I'm simply going to lay down and not vote to certify results that are demonstrably true. And after four years of a situation in which the White House has basically tried to destroy the free press, the Justice Department, and every other institution that is a bedrock of American democracy, including the career civil service. Now, the administration is now saying and by the way, the entire electoral system can no longer be trusted. And we're talking about what Frank was just talking about, what outside actors could do, what outside actors could do is exactly what the White House is now doing, which is trying to destroy our faith in the institutions that are exactly what this country needs to survive. 


Amy Jeffress [00:14:37] That, I agree, is alarming, and Frank talked earlier about the house is on fire. I would say it goes beyond that. I would say that Trump is just fanning the flames of misinformation and bitterness across the entire country and trying to leave it in a forest fire, which is just so irresponsible and narcissistic as to be unpatriotic. I find it appalling. 


Frank Figliuzzi [00:14:58] I made a reference a couple of Nicolle Wallace shows ago to Trump being a kind of barricaded subject in the White House. And this harkens back to my FBI days, by that, I mean I saw in the earliest days and still still today, I see Joe Biden taking the right approach, as if he were negotiating with a barricaded subject who has hostages and can do real damage. And what do I mean by that? I mean in the early aspects of a negotiation, you want to listen, you want to talk less than the subject is talking. You want to hear his demands. You want to ensure and preserve the safety of the hostages or the building he's in, right? So all of that's been done, and Biden's been extremely restrained, even as recently as today. 


But at some point, the demands are going to become so outrageous that can never be complied with, and the hostages are going to start getting shot. By that, I mean people getting fired, like now maybe the FBI director or the CIA director, maybe some national security disaster is happening, and maybe coronavirus is getting even worse than we could possibly imagine, and he's burning up the plans to deploy the vaccine. Who knows? But at some point, you tell that barricaded subject, we can do this the easy way or we can do this the hard way. But you're coming out of that building. And so that point is going to get reached at some point, and maybe that's when they go to court and tell GSA you've got to ascertain a winner right now. 


Paul Fishman [00:16:26] One of the things that bothers me, frankly scares me actually, about what you just said, to build on what Amy was saying, at the Justice Department, Amy's right and lots of places, it's the career civil servants who are doing the real work. But right now, the person who is responsible for making national security decisions is that guy barricaded in the White House who either believes that he won the election, which is crazy, or he doesn't believe he won the election, and he's doing everything to steal it anyway. And for the next 10 weeks, 9 weeks, our security is in the hands of that guy and the people he's now installing at the State Department and the Defense Department who aren't the people who were there, haven't been there for three years and haven't been, aren't people at the top who are people who are confirmed by the Senate. They are people who are willing to walk in and say, "sure, I'll take this job for 70 days. That seems great to me." That seems tremendously dangerous. 


Frank Figliuzzi [00:17:22] And to keep this barricaded subject theory going with what you just said, while the FBI is dealing with a barricaded subject behind the scenes, there's an intel unit that's desperately trying to figure out how bad is this guy? Like, can he really do what he's threatening? How much danger are we in? And they involve behavioral scientists and the whole thing. Well, what do we know about this guy who's barricaded? We know that he didn't even care about the health and safety of his family. They all got COVID. This is a guy who will hurt people, if it's in his own interest. 


Harry Litman [00:17:58] Yeah. You know, in general, I found the detours over the last few years into what makes him tick to be both fruitless and hair tearing because he certainly is singular. It would be a tough job for a hostage negotiator. And back to Amy's image of a forest fire, because I don't see it going out January 20th, right? I mean, there are concrete costs to this. First his 70 million or whatever supporters aren't going away. So they are buoyed in their notion that will get more and more concrete that he was robbed. This will become, I think, the new "no collusion, no obstruction." It'll be like an article of faith that it was stolen from him, and then, I'll bet you guys have all had this experience of people asking you, you're a lawyer or you're on TV. You must know, isn't there some way he can pull it off? And that sophisticated engaged citizens actually are in grave doubt about the certainty of what you say, Frank, was a very decisive election. That's not healthy for the democracy. 


Frank Figliuzzi [00:19:00] Well, look, I. I say this. I am extremely confident that on January 20th, we're going to have a guy called Joe Biden as president. That's not my actual concern. My concern is a shadow presidency moving forward. People ask me about the future of extremism, the future of QAnon, Proud Boys, violent militia groups, and I say this. We've got a president who's going to probably launch a digital media platform. 70 million people voted for him, 100,000,000 Twitter followers. He's going to simultaneously reportedly announce that he's a candidate immediately for 2024 for president. 


Harry Litman [00:19:41] And he'll say anything at all. 


Harry Litman [00:19:42] Yeah. And he'll be automatically be the front runner, and so any reasonable voice that might be left in the Republican Party who might challenge him is going to have to say, well, he is the front runner for the party. So we will have a shadow presidency and a kind of insurgency moving forward that's extremely dangerous. 


Harry Litman [00:20:00] This raises two questions. First, Paul and Amy, are you guys at where Frank is? One hundred percent, January 21st, not the slightest doubt, Joe Biden is the president?


Amy Jeffress [00:20:10] Oh, I think Joe Biden will be president on January 21st, yes. So, and I also like to have some hope, and so I would say that once Trump is no longer president, his influence and his ability to influence the public diminishes considerably. Now, he still has millions of followers, I understand that, and they may believe what tweets out and continue to follow him, but he becomes much less powerful. And we see other institutions stepping up. So, for example, I have some hope because Congress, four members of the House are calling on Emily Murphy to come in on Monday and explain why she has not yet certified the election. So that to me, is one of the normal institutions responding as they should, to a problem with a particular GSA administrator who is evidently paralyzed by her fear of what Trump might do to her if she certifies the election, which it's obvious to everyone that has gone Biden's way. So that, maybe I'll be proven wrong and on Monday, she will not go in and she'll threaten contempt, but I do see people trying to exercise normal levers of power to facilitate a smooth transition. And let's hope that things get on a better path than they have been in this first week or so. 


Paul Fishman [00:21:19] Let me add two things to that. I think one thing that I am worried about is that because Trump is not actually behaving like a president could or should, and probably won't for the next two months, stuff is going to get worse, right? The virus will continue to spread. I was heartened by the fact that Joe Biden had a call yesterday with all of the governors and that the readout from that was quite positive. But whatever happens to the economy, to national security, to the world order, to the health and safety of the American people over the next two months is going to be just an added catastrophe, but also a burden for Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and the rest of their administration to grapple with starting on January 20th. And that's a problem because we all know, we watched this election. What did you inherit from the previous administration? They asked Obama and Biden, what did you inherit? Donald Trump says the best economy ever. People will think about what it looked like on day one and try to cast blame one way or the other. 


That's a problem. But, but here's what I do take a little hope. There is still massive civil litigation going on in which Donald Trump is a defendant all over the country. And while the Justice Department may have tried ineptly and without legal foundation to intervene and claim that he lied about a violent sexual encounter with a woman who did not consent while he was president, that somehow that's part of his presidential duties, that theory is gone on January 20th. His ability to stay discovery in those civil cases because he's the president, gone on January 20th. And so there will be civil litigation, his depositions definitely get taken somewhere in the southern district of New York, sometime in 2021 by some lawyers who really don't like him. 


Amy Jeffress [00:22:53] Maybe multiple times. 


Paul Fishman [00:22:54] Maybe multiple times. It may well be that Joe Biden decides to pardon Donald Trump, I find it very hard to believe at the moment that that's going to be the course this president takes. But even so, the district attorney's office in Manhattan, not going away. The state attorney general of New York, not going away. And so there's going to be a lot, there are going to be a lot of things are going to happen that are going to start to be more than nicks on his armor, I think, the way he's been able to avoid stuff for the last four years. Maybe that IRS audit one day will actually end. Who really knows? But I do think that there are going to be other forces that are going to be counterweights to some of the stuff that we've been talking about. 


Harry Litman [00:23:33] So this raises a couple of questions. I want to double back quickly to Amy's optimism, maybe counterposed with some darker thoughts, because okay, four members of the House of Representatives. But what the hell is going on with the Republican Party now that Trump is out, now that they don't have to worry, as we always heard, about primary challenges or whatever, with the exception of Mitt Romney, everybody is kind of abetting this tantrum. People say Mitch McConnell could shut it down tomorrow, I don't know. But it looks as if they want to retain the stamp of Trump, even after Trump is gone. Does seem to augur for increased power from the grave of the ex-president. 


Frank Figliuzzi [00:24:19] So I, by the way, I really hope Amy is right, and I love optimism, and I think her scenario is not only possible, but there's a decent likelihood that the president will have diminished influence, particularly if he's spending time in criminal and civil courtrooms. However, I think, again, this is probably the career FBI agent where we got paid to think worst case scenario and prepare for that, to compare this to kind of a cult mentality, cult of personality. The good news about cults is they eventually die off when the leader disappears or is taken out. This guy isn't disappearing. He is going to have that digital media platform. He is going to run for office, and he does have people in the House and Senate who view his base as their base. There's a lot of votes to be had out there. Those people are going away, and so you see an almost living martyrdom in cult leaders who are harassed, harangued, the government's coming after them, and they become almost hero status, like even in a mob case or a drug cartel. It's part of your bona fides to do your time, get indicted, you're even better in their eyes than before. So my concern is there's a possibility he increases stature, and the House and Senate folks who are with him, afraid of losing their base, they stick with that. 


Harry Litman [00:25:35] And then Paul gave the teaser. I also have been flummoxed by this talk of will Biden pardon him? You know, I can't imagine why, but it's a very different question. Will Biden or the attorney general indict him? And I'm just throwing it back again to our DOJ veterans. Do you have views as to whether Biden and the attorney general are going to stay their hand rather than actually filing criminal charges by the United States? 


Amy Jeffress [00:26:07] This is a great question, and I think that there is going to be a very significant debate in the incoming administration as to whether Trump should be held accountable in a criminal process. And the initial signals that I read from what President elect Biden is saying, is that he wants to move forward and to not entertain that and to get beyond the Trump era. And that's my personal view, but I know that there are a lot of people who think that Trump needs to be held accountable. I think that if there are charges, it would be best if they related to the Trump organization's financial dealings, and be as far from politics and his administration as possible, because that's where, if there's any relation to his presidency, people are going to view it as political and that is not going to be healthy for the country. You know, I do a lot of international work, and I'm familiar with countries where it's routine for the party that comes into power to prosecute the party that just left. And I don't want to be those countries, I would like to have a peaceful transition. Trump is not participating in a peaceful transition right now, so a lot of people who think he's going to get what he deserves, but I like the high road. I think I am totally in line with where President elect Biden is on this. 


Harry Litman [00:27:18] Especially given the New York off ramp, not just criminal stuff, but the financial shenanigans that the attorney general of New York, I think, will be going after. 


Paul Fishman [00:27:27] I just want to talk about one thing that you said, Harry, which, as you said, Biden's making decisions, whether Trump gets indicted or not. I think the only decision that President elect Biden will get to make, is whether to pardon him or not. If he decides not to pardon him, then he should not, will not be involved in any decision by the Department of Justice to indict or not indict. And that is as it should be. 


Harry Litman [00:27:48] Everybody's nodding their head. But really, the attorney general, Sally Yates, decides to indict him. They call the White House, right?


Amy Jeffress [00:27:54] Harry, it's a great point. Isn't that a conversation that President Biden is going to have with the attorney general candidates? I would think so, before they get nominated. 


Harry Litman [00:28:03] All right. I don't want to spend too much time talking about Rudy Giuliani and Sydney Palin, Janet Ellis. But I think especially, again, Paul and Amy, you might have a vantage point on why the president has had to replace lawyers so consistently and why he's now at, objectively speaking, not the caliber of representation that you might think presidents would be having, or elections would be having. What's it like, say, within big firms who are considering as maybe, say, Jones Day or whatever would be, request to represent the president? 


Paul Fishman [00:28:38] What I can say is this: the argument that the president is asking lawyers to make in court is an argument about voter fraud that has no evidentiary backing whatsoever, that anybody has been able to produce. And you see it in transcript after transcript that's been released of the various court proceedings in which the administration or the president and the campaign keeps losing, which is judges consistently say, what's the evidence of fraud? And the response by even Rudy Giuliani is, I'm not really alleging widespread fraud. And so the public pronouncements that they make at press conferences and in tweets and from the lectern in the White House are not the same words that they're speaking actually in courtrooms across the country. And so the problem for lawyers of real substance is, they're not going to be willing to make an argument to a judge, a state court judge or a federal judge, that they can't back up. Its sanctionable, it's not ethical to make that argument. So that's the first problem. But the thing that I was struck by, and I can't tell you how disappointing it was to me, you know, I grew up as an assistant U.S. attorney in an era where Rudy Giuliani was held up as kind of a model of what U.S. attorneys were supposed to be in a lot of ways. 


There were things he did that I didn't like, including perp walks and that sort of stuff. But he was a hard-charging, disciplined, highly respected boss in the southern district of New York. And to see him at that press conference yesterday, I don't want to mock the man because he's doing his own hair dye and so it's running down his face. It did feel a lot to me, like a scene out of Airplane. Not My Cousin Vinny but, Airplane, where the sweat is pouring off the pilot's body. But what made me really sad is to see Rudy Giuliani and Joe DiGenova, two former United States attorneys, standing up on national television in the headquarters of the Republican National Committee, listing dozens of people in a conspiracy, one dead president of Venezuela, one not not actually the president anymore, but still the president of Venezuela, Maduro, Ukrainians, Democrats, people from other countries, and to watch that display made me really sad because so much has gone wrong in that way. 


Amy Jeffress [00:30:52] Let me again pick up on the optimism, though. You know, Harry, you started by talking about how some of the lawyers, even really Rudy Giuliani as Paul said, have been careful about the representations they make in court and not outright lying to the court. So let's hear it for the most functional branch of government. I think the courts have showed very strong, and have been consistent. The courts are not perfect, but the judiciary has been a very consistent check in the way that it is supposed to be, and has functioned effectively. And these cases aren't going anywhere, so thankfully, we're not going to see this election get challenged up to the Supreme Court. But I do think President Trump sees the Supreme Court as something that he has bought off. He's so transactional about the way that he engages in public life that he feels like, I put Gorsuch and Kavanaugh and Coney Barrett on there, and then that means they're going to vote for me. And I don't think they necessarily see it that way. I think they view themselves as independent jurists who can call the shots the way that they think the law requires them to. So we're not going to get there, but I would put my money on the judges doing what they feel is the right thing. 


Frank Figliuzzi [00:31:57] This theme of the fact that this has turned from any semblance of legitimate legal challenge to absolute theater, for me raises the much larger question I find fascinating from a behavioral standpoint, which is not just the lawyers, but everybody in Trump's orbit, whether it's Barr or Pompeo or Chad Wolf at DHS, that path that you take to sell - where your soul gets corrupted and then sold. This fascinates me, and Paul's reference to Rudy as a formerly respected leader is on the money. I don't pretend to have answers for it, but part of it's a search for relevancy, power, ego, cultlike adherence to a person, I don't know. But it's a sad state of affairs that we're in. 


Harry Litman [00:32:43] All right. This is all a very good transition to our sidebar this week. We're going to do something a little bit different, focusing a bit on Rudy. The second to last time he registered an appearance in US federal court was in 1992. The most recent was last Tuesday, where at one point the judge asked him what level of scrutiny should apply to his case, and he replied, "the normal one." Now, that was a howler to the legal community, anybody who's argued in court knows that the level of scrutiny is question number one in a constitutional case. Well, we asked the man who argued against Giuliani in court on Tuesday, Mark Aronchick, to give him and our listeners a primer on levels of scrutiny. So, Mark Aronchick is a national trial and appellate attorney, past Chancellor of the Philadelphia bar, the lawyer currently arguing against Giuliani in court. And he is well known as one of the finest election lawyers in the country, which I can confirm having worked with him. And he also has a long list of high profile cases, and Mark was named 2019 attorney of the year. So thank you very much, Mark, for coming on Talking Feds to explain to Rudy Giuliani and our listeners, levels of constitutional scrutiny. 


Mark Aronchick [00:34:02] On Tuesday, Rudy Giuliani argued to a federal judge in Pennsylvania that the court should invalidate up to 700,000 mail-in ballots cast in the state. During the hearing, Giuliani was asked by the judge what level of scrutiny should be applied, and he replied, "the normal one." Although perhaps not obvious to nonlawyers, the judge's question, 'what is the appropriate level of scrutiny to apply to this case?' Is the threshold fundamental question in constitutional cases. The Supreme Court has developed three different levels of scrutiny, basically hurdles of different heights, and these correspond to the importance of the constitutional interest at stake, and the government's reasons for wanting to burden it. The highest level of scrutiny is strict, sometimes called strict in theory, fatal in fact. It is reserved for situations in which the government burdens clear constitutional rights. Technically, the government can infringe on even clear constitutional commands, but it must have an excellent reason and no other way to do it. 


For example, the infamous Japanese concentration camp case in World War II, which the court has since overruled, was an instance where the government's actions actually passed strict scrutiny. The court found that the government was discriminating on the basis of race, but that it had a compelling reason. Typically, however, the determination that the government has burdened a constitutional right, say the right to free speech, triggers strict scrutiny and dooms the government action. The second level of scrutiny is called intermediate. The technical test is whether the government action furthers an important government interest by means that are substantially related to that interest. Intermediate scrutiny applies to what the court calls quasi-suspect classes. Quasi-suspect classes include gender and illegitimacy. Some courts also treat sexual orientation as a quasi-suspect class. Gun control laws are also reviewed for compliance with the Second Amendment under intermediate scrutiny. Finally, the last level of scrutiny which applies to everything else, is called rational basis review. 


It is used, for example, for ordinary economic regulation. A law evaluated under rational basis review must only bear a rational relationship to a legitimate governmental purpose. That's an easy test to satisfy. A court is supposed to uphold the law under rational basis review any time it can hypothesize a legitimate purpose for that law. There's nothing in the Constitution that stops Congress from enacting a stupid or ineffective law, but it's not unheard of for a court to strike down laws under a rational basis level of scrutiny. So if he had been properly prepared, Giuliani should have argued to the court that it should apply strict scrutiny, because the right to vote was at stake. I was prepared to argue rational basis, because there's no constitutional right to observe an election from 6 feet rather than 10 feet, which is what the Republicans were seeking. And as a practical matter of the courts choice, whether to apply strict scrutiny or a rational basis would have decided the case. For Talking Feds, I'm Mark Aronchick. 


Harry Litman [00:37:52] All right, thanks again to Mark Aronchick. Let's try to end with a little bit of fresh air, taking up the Jeffress, more optimistic view, and talk a little bit more about the government to come. So the Biden transition, even hamstrung, goes forward. He's made several initial moves and appointments, a chief of staff just today, many different people in the White House. Among you Washingtonians, any kind of insight as to what sort of government he's thinking about running? 


Frank Figliuzzi [00:38:27] As I think many of us on this discussion are, I'm an institutionalist in the sense that I believe our values as a democracy are wrapped up in our institutions, and in the career professionals who staff them. So I am breathing a welcome sign of relief when I see professionals, when I see resumes that are replete with years, if not decades of true substantive experience. I think not to call it a coalition government, but even rumors that he's reaching out to Republicans -  phenomenal. I mean, the guy is trying to do the right thing, and so far appears to be selecting sane, seasoned, experienced veterans. 


Amy Jeffress [00:39:04] Harry, the last time I was on this podcast was with Ron Klain, as you might remember, and there is just no better chief of staff for the president to have during a pandemic like this. I mean, Ron's got the experience with handling this very similar crisis, and knows exactly how to come in and handle it from the get go. And so I think that's a great appointment and really signals good, smart decisions from Biden and his team. 


Harry Litman [00:39:28] What's the practical impact going to be if the Democrats don't take both seats in Georgia, and all nominations have to go through the aforementioned Mitch McConnell? Will that very much hamstring Biden's choices? 


Amy Jeffress [00:39:44] I think it makes Mitt Romney and Susan Collins extremely powerful people, right? They can basically make or break Biden's nominations if the Republican Party continues to be sort of obstructionist. And actually, there's been some signaling that a lot of Republican senators don't intend to obstruct reasonable nominees, but we have a ways to go to see how that's going to play out. But the moderates are going to be very, very powerful. 


Harry Litman [00:40:07] It's a good point. And my sense is, for all of McConnell's intransigence, he'll have to play ball somewhat, at least starting out on a some kind of stimulus, no? We have 12 million people about to lose unemployment insurance, they confirm a bunch of conservative judges and leave town. But I don't see his being able to sit on his hands indefinitely about that, even if he's majority leader. Frank, you're agreeing? 


Frank Figliuzzi [00:40:31] Yeah, I mean, look, we've got word that Steve Mnuchin, secretary of Treasury, is going to allow all of this to expire December 31st, and it's a disaster. And again, it's part of what looks like a scorched-earth, let's burn the place down strategy, and make it so much harder for Biden to effectively lead. So, yeah, it's going to be look, you've got Corona, number one. But right behind it, and closely related to Corona, is going to be the financial crisis on our hands on a personal level. 


Harry Litman [00:40:58] Yeah. 


Paul Fishman [00:40:58] The problem, Harry, is a simple one, right? Even if Congress, if the House passes a bill that McConnell can live with, that's not going to happen until January. Trump is the president until January 20th. So maybe he doesn't sign it, we don't really know what the White House even thinks anymore because Steve Mnuchin is not the president of the United States, so we don't know how that's going to work. And so we're going to lose another two months during which a lot of people are going to die, and a lot of people are going to lose their jobs. There are a number of states in which eviction moratoria may expire, and then states are going to start to run out of money too, one of the stumbling blocks in the last round of negotiations was that the House was insisting that there be a bunch of money for state governments who are trying to carry their share of the load during the last eight to 10 months. And the Senate didn't want to go along with those kind of payments to states, particularly blue states. And that's going to be a problem if they can't resolve that question. And because it's been very expensive for states to try to fill the gaps here. 


Harry Litman [00:41:58] And I think it's just not easy when things run out to instantly try to reanimate them. And we've lost more jobs already. Permanently, people going into permanent unemployment than in the 2008 terrible recession. And of course, they're disproportionately in the service industry, and what's that mean? They disproportionately fall on women. And what's that mean? They disproportionately fall on minority women. And if a big enough cohort actually become permanently unemployed, that's a kind of problem that you just can't fix overnight. One specific point, he seems determined even in his transition moves, on being the so called 'climate president.' So are there things he can do, even with McConnell's lack of cooperation, to move forward there? What kind of progressive policies can he try to pursue if he doesn't have the Senate with him? 


Frank Figliuzzi [00:42:54] I mean, I think across the board you're going to see the use of executive order. He's already said he's going to reenter treaties, whether it's Kyoto, the Paris accord. On the health front, he's going to rejoin the World Health Organization. He's going to do what he can unilaterally. And it's funny because I'm not a huge fan of executive order, but I think if you need to restore order, you've got to do what you've got to do. 


Harry Litman [00:43:15] You know who else isn't a big fan of executive orders is a lot of the current crop of conservative Trump judges, including the justices on the Supreme Court. Justice Kavanaugh, among others, has showed an interest in paring back on executive agencies. So if, in fact, he's blocked a lot in the Senate route, he may find it not so easy as previous presidents have to try to do executive orders that will be immediately challenged in court, and maybe work themselves up to a Supreme Court ready to cut back on those things. 


Amy Jeffress [00:43:52] I would just add to that climate change is a global problem and it has to be addressed globally. I see this as a diplomatic issue as much as anything. I mean, executive orders can help the United States get in line and adapt better, more climate friendly policies. But we were in the Obama administration, a global leader on the efforts to combat climate change. And we are now a global loser on climate change. And so I do think that the Biden administration will try to step back into the role of global leader, and try to work with other nations leaders to adopt policies around the world that are effective and help address this problem. And I see this as a real generational shift, too, I have two teenage kids and they both see climate change as a big issue. The next couple of generations are really the ones who are going to suffer from this, and they get that. They're going to vote on it. It's going to be a different issue 10 years from now than it even is today. 


Harry Litman [00:44:48] That also doubles back, I guess, to what we were saying before, because it will become increasingly untenable for Trump to maintain this charade, not only as the Mitt Romneys of the world and maybe a few senators, but more and more international leaders are going to be congratulating Biden, and treating him as the president elect and making Trump all the more marginal. It's funny when he'll arrive at a point that he just can't handle it anymore, back to your hostage analogy, Frank. 


Frank Figliuzzi [00:45:16] Yeah, I think there's going to be a great honeymoon period for Biden globally, where the embrace of world leaders who are so grateful to have some semblance of normalcy returned. I think you'll see some consensus built in the areas, as Amy was saying, of environment. But but others as well. I think he's got better milk that honeymoon period for all it's worth. 


Harry Litman [00:45:37] All right. We just have a couple of minutes left for our final feature, Five Words or Fewer, where we take a question from a listener and each of us has to answer in five words or fewer. So Alison Broad, who asked: 'Will or can the Biden administration still go after Flynn, Stone and Bannon, who obviously have already been charged but have not in many people's view, seen full justice?'


Amy Jeffress [00:46:06] My answer? Please ask the career prosecutors. 


Harry Litman [00:46:09] There you go. 


Paul Fishman [00:46:11] My answer: Trump will pardon them. 


Frank Figliuzzi [00:46:14] Pardon, not off the hook. 


Harry Litman [00:46:16] I'll say: one of them, going down. 


Thank you very much to Frank, Paul and Amy, and thank you very much, listeners, for tuning in to Talking Feds. If you like what you've heard, please tell a friend to subscribe to us on Apple Podcasts, or wherever they get their podcasts, and please take a moment to rate and review this podcast. You can follow us on Twitter @TalkingFedsPod , to find out about future episodes and other Feds-related content. You can check us out on the web, talkingfeds.com , where we post full episode transcripts, and you can look to see our latest offerings on Patreon, where we post discussions about special topics exclusively for supporters. And these aren't outtakes or simply ad-free episodes, though we do have those there, but really original one-on-one discussions with national experts. Just in the last few days, we've posted discussions with T. Rowe Price chief economist Alan Levinson about the stimulus, Sam Vinograd about the firing of Chris Krebs and the Pentagon brass, Norm Orenstein about Lindsey Graham's efforts to reverse the election, and Jonathan Weinberg about an important affirmative action case going to the Supreme Court. 


So there's really a wealth of great stuff there, you can go look at it to see what's there and then decide if you'd like to subscribe. Submit your questions to questions@talkingfeds.com , whether it's for Five Words or Fewer, or general questions about the inner workings of the legal system for our Sidebar segments. Thanks for tuning in, and don't worry: as long as you need answers, the Feds will keep talking. Talking Feds is produced by Jennifer Bassett and Rebecca Lowe Patton. Our editor is Justin Wright. David Lieberman and Rosie Don Griffin are our contributing writers. Production assistance by Matt McArdle. Our consulting producer is Andrea Carla Michaels. Thanks very much to Mark Aronchick for schooling us, and others, on constitutional levels of scrutiny. Our gratitude, as always, to the amazing Philip Glass, who graciously lets us use his music. Talking Feds is a production of Dalito, LLC. I'm Harry Litman, see you next time. 


BIDEN OUR TIME

Harry Litman [00:00:00] Hi, Harry here, just with a quick note about our Patreon site: it's for subscribers, so there is a small monthly fee, but there's really a wealth of original material there, one on one discussions with experts about really cutting-edge topics. Just in the last few days, we've dropped discussions about the Bill Barr memo, or the Harvard admissions case that might be the vehicle for the Supreme Court to rewrite affirmative action, or the letter from AUSA's protesting against Bill Barr, or the national security implications of Barr's dragging his feet on the transition. Just check it out at patreon.com/talkingfeds , that's patreon.com/talkingfeds . See what there is to see, and you can decide if you want to subscribe after you've looked at the offerings there. OK, here's our episode. 


Harry Litman [00:01:09] Welcome to Talking Feds, a roundtable that brings together prominent former federal officials and special guests for a dynamic discussion of the most important political and legal topics of the day. I'm Harry Litman. It's a measure of the degradation of our democracy during the Trump years that notwithstanding a decisive Biden victory, a large percentage of the electorate feels uncertain about who will be president come January. President Trump has launched a litigation campaign that, for the most part, doesn't even allege and in no way begins to demonstrate, the sort of irregularities that would call Biden's election into question. That part is common ground yet somehow there are nagging doubts that he can pull off what, in essence, would be a coup and the end of American democracy. 


Quite apart from his quixotic effort to overturn the election, Trump signaled that he will go out and Trumpian style, firing his defense attorney Mark Esper in a tweet for questioning his use of active duty troops to quell street protests, and then replacing top Pentagon officials with more Trump loyalists. He seems to all but have abandoned his public duties, he stayed mostly out of sight this week behind a wall of tweets, even as the country was breaking records in new virus cases and hospitalizations on a virtual daily basis, spiking to 160,000 daily cases by week's end and raising discussions of lockdowns across the country. Joe Biden, meanwhile, seems unfazed by Trump's stonewalling and petty antics. He is going ahead with the work of the transition, beginning with two important moves: the selection of a coronavirus task force - heavy on science and the sort of expertize Trump has shunned - and the selection of longtime confidant and Washington insider Ron Klain to be his chief of staff. These early post-election moves provide important indications about the governing strategies of the Biden administration and the Senate Republicans, and the role Trump intends to play in exile. To explore these issues, and also take a closer look at important aspects of the election returns, we have three superb guests. 


They are: Peter Baker. Peter has been the chief White House correspondent for The New York Times since 2008, he's covered four presidents over his career at the Times and The Washington Post. He's the author of six books, including the recent "The Man Who Ran Washington: The Life and Times of James A. Baker III," co-written with his wife, Susan Glasser, and a really terrific read about not just Baker, but Washington in those now halcyon-seeming days. Baker’s won all three major awards dedicated to White House reporting: the George R. Ford Prize for distinguished coverage of the presidency, the Aldo Beckman Memorial Award and the Merriman Smith Memorial Award. He's also a political analyst for MSNBC and a regular panelist on PBS's Washington Week. Thank you very much, Peter, for being here. 


Peter Baker [00:04:16] Thanks for having me. 


Harry Litman [00:04:17] Laura Jarrett: Laura is the anchor of CNN's Early Start. Since joining CNN in 2016 after a very successful but brief legal career in private practice, she's focused on the Justice Department and many high profile legal issues there. Laura, thanks for coming, as always. 


Laura Jarrett [00:04:38] Thanks for having me, as always. 


Harry Litman [00:04:40] And Robert Raben, the founder and president of The Raben Group, a progressive public policy firm. He was assistant attorney general at the Department of Justice under former President Bill Clinton, where we first met, and worked extensively on Capitol Hill, cutting his teeth with Representative Barney Frank and serving seven hard-fought terms, I would say, on the House Judiciary Committee. Robert Raben, thanks for being here. 


Robert Raben [00:05:04] Thank you for having me, Harry. 


Harry Litman [00:05:05] So let's start with the Trump holdout here. You know, it's it's on the one hand unprecedented, yet it seemed almost predictable, this kind of giant sulk by the president. The question on everyone's mind, sad to say, is, is there any possibility that he can reverse the result of the election and as Pompeo, among others, has predicted, transition to a second Trump term? 


Peter Baker [00:05:32] Short answer, no. 


Robert Raben [00:05:33] Highly unlikely. 


Peter Baker [00:05:35] Well, the longer answer is that there's no allegation out there that would reverse the election. I mean, short of something extra-constitutional, there is no legal challenge that would prompt any court to reverse tens of thousands of votes in three or more states. I mean, remember, we talked about the Florida 2000 as if that was a precedent for this. It's really a different situation. You had there one state that made all the difference,  one way or the other, whoever won that state would win the presidency. And in the end, on election night, there was a difference of 1700 and some votes. 


By the end of the machine recount, it was 300 and some votes, 350-some votes, what that meant is Al Gore had a plausible argument to make that he could perhaps have 350 more votes after that machine recount and then win the state and win the presidency. Here, you'd have to switch 52-53,000 votes in Pennsylvania alone. Not going to happen. Never happened, and again, as you point out in the introduction, there is no allegation of any widespread fraud other than simply saying it, there is no actual specific allegation out there on which you could hang such an outcome on. 


Harry Litman [00:06:35] All right. But you said short of extra-constitutional, which would normally answer it, but not necessarily in the Trump years. What about some raw power play by state legislatures or secretaries of state? 


Robert Raben [00:06:48] Yeah, that's the more salient political piece, which is the states most likely to help him, sort of the conservative or Republican political establishment in Georgia and Arizona, don't seem to be doing what many of us predicted could happen. So people who did scenario planning about all the awful things that we were on track to see and praise God, many of them we haven't seen with foreign interference and outright corruption of ballots, but you're not seeing Republican officials, in states that could, make moves to appoint parallel electors or say this is an outrage or talk about fraud. You're only seeing US Attorney General Barr do it, but you're not seeing Republican officials in the states do it where it matters. 


Laura Jarrett [00:07:30] But you're also seeing Republicans in positions of power, like in Georgia and even in Philadelphia, pushing back strongly against Trump's baseless claims, right? Think about Al Schmidt going on 60 Minutes saying his office is getting death threats, for God's sakes. I mean, this is not somebody who is some sort of flaming liberal. This is somebody who could be couching things in the way that we're hearing from Republicans in Washington, but the folks on the ground in the states are not doing that. 


And also, to Peter's point about the court cases, the bifurcation bizarro world of what's going on between what Trump is saying on Twitter and what his lawyers are saying in court is like night and day. The court cases are not about fraud by and large. Now, every day Rudy Giuliani says, oh, there's a new case coming, or we found some new affidavit. By and large, the cases were largely about poll workers not being able to observe the ballot counting, or they didn't have the right distance because of COVID. And in a few cases, the judges threw them out of court. I listened to one case in Michigan where the judge literally said, all you have here is hearsay, and dismissed it. So the judges are able to see through what's happening here, but I wonder if the president has actually read his legal filings sometimes, because the court cases bear no resemblance to anything that he and his allies have been putting out on FOX. 


Peter Baker [00:08:46] He's been told in the last few days to stop using the F word, stop saying fraud, and use rigged. You can say rigged, according to this logic in the White House, because rigged is not a legal term, it's not a specific allegation that you have to prove because there is no such thing as rigged in an election law contest. 


Harry Litman [00:09:01] Yeah, OK. I think it was 0 for 12, but more more notably, every single case failed even to allege a Florida-type scenario. Now, some lawyer somewhere has tumbled to it, so the latest allegation in Pennsylvania is that there is an equal protection violation, in what? In the two tiered system. Some people do mail in ballots, some people do in-person ballots. That's actually all they could reach for to try to get something that would be all encompassing. 


Peter Baker [00:09:30] A policy disagreement, not a fraud, not a corruption, which is what the president is saying. And if you have any of you invalidate mail in voting because of an equal protection argument, you're invalidating many elections going back all the way to the civil war. I mean, we had mail in balloting since the Civil War. 


Harry Litman [00:09:43] And not to mention all of the ones in this very term. I get the sense also that the Republicans are winking and signaling that they're humoring him, and let it just go a little bit longer. Of course, that's in its own way, pretty pernicious, but there's a downside to the pretense that the election isn't settled. 


Laura Jarrett [00:10:05] But don't you also wonder, like, why are they so afraid of him? He lost. 


Harry Litman [00:10:07] Still, yeah. Why are they so afraid - what? Who is this guy? 


Laura Jarrett [00:10:11] I wondered about that a lot this week, and I think I got my answer from Lindsey Graham. Lindsey Graham basically said, 'the writing's on the wall here, it's about Georgia.' And if it were not for this runoff in Georgia, we might see Mitch McConnell ditch him sooner. We might see other Republicans in leadership ditch him sooner. But because they have this race that's going to change the balance of the Senate, potentially, if the Democrats win back those two seats, I think that it's changed the dynamic for them on the ground, and they feel the need to still galvanize supporters. They feel the need to not brush past the president's wildly popular base. And I think they're worried that if they do anything to anger him and to bruise his ego even more, it would hurt them come January. 


Peter Baker [00:10:56] And he got 48%, or whatever the final number will be, of the vote. He got five million or again, whatever the final number will be, more votes than he got four years ago. So if you're a Republican, you're looking at somebody who commands the loyalty of the party unlike any other Republican figure even in a defeat. He's not repudiated, or doesn't feel repudiated, or doesn't seem to be repudiated from the Republican perspective in the way that George H.W. Bush, or Jimmy Carter, or other one term presidents who were defeated were. He's going to, he's going to continue to be a force and may not be that he can run again in 2024, anything like that, but it doesn't mean that they can afford to, from their point of view, to anger him unnecessarily. 


Harry Litman [00:11:35] I guess that's right, because the one thing he can do, even if he's not a likely nominee in a couple of years, he certainly has shown himself willing to cancel politicians, right? Anyone who crosses him, he will be unabashed about doing that. But I think Laura's point is, when you hear people whispering, why are you doing this? That's what they say, they need to keep the base energized for Georgia. 


Laura Jarrett [00:11:57] But this idea that it doesn't have a cost, right? Let's give them a minute to lick his wounds. The 9/11 report finds that the messed up transition is part of the reason we missed the ball on that, right? So there's actually, there is a cost to this. There is a tangible downside to letting his ego ride the day. 


Harry Litman [00:12:18] I totally agree. Among other costs, I'm sure you guys have been doing the same in the last week, talking to people who are really engaged, thoughtful voters, and they really don't know if he's going to somehow pull it off. They're jumpy from the past, that's sort of the same as saying they don't know if we still live in a democracy. That's a real tangible cost, I think. Robert, you're giving me a, kind of a jaundiced no here. 


Robert Raben [00:12:41] It's a personal business and it's very, very hard for most people who are unmedicated and untherapized say to their peers, 'hey, it's time to go.' We're having a hard time doing that with Senator Feinstein on the left. It's hard. It's a personal business, and people don't like saying tough things to people. But the other thing you're seeing is the Vichy government didn't dismantle itself either. People have been on a power gravy train for three and a half, four years, McConnell being the lead of that. They've gotten some unbelievable judicial wins out of it, and they don't want to stop it, and there could be things that happen in the next 30 days. They're continuing to run judges through the Senate. I don't know that I would want to stop that either. 


Harry Litman [00:13:22] They now want to have a confirmed Department of Homeland Security, having not had it for most of their tenure, right? 


Robert Raben [00:13:27] I think mostly it's about not wanting to poke a bear who has shown a willingness to say demonstrably horrible things about you over, and over, and over again. And it's extremely damaging. 95, 96% of Republican voters vote for Trump. 


Harry Litman [00:13:45] And one other point about this Trump campaign is he's again leveraging his cronies in government. You have Pompeo, I don't even know what you make of that kind of smirking statement. But then the Bill Barr memo to the field that was taken broadly as a signal that maybe DOJ is going to march in in a heavy-booted way and at least support the notion that there's fraud afoot. Any, any thoughts about what Barr's doing here? 


Peter Baker [00:14:16] Well, I thought your column, first of all, in the L.A. Times today was super interesting about the consequences of it, and what actually added up to. I had not recognized early on that he was actually overturning a longstanding policy of no federal investigation between the election and the certifications, which is really interesting, and again explains the resignation of the elections chief in a clearer way than I had understood before. I tend to think that what Barr thinks he was doing was to placate the president without actually, in his mind, doing anything of any genuine consequence, because the caveat that he put in the order, which is that they could investigate fraud on such a level that it would actually overturn the election in a state is such a high bar, you would think, because there is no such allegation out there that would do that, that my guess is he saying, well, I can tell the president I've been investigating fraud if there's any out there, but he's telling us attorneys you can only do it if there's really something genuinely big, and there isn't anything genuine. But as you say, there are consequences that go beyond this next couple of weeks. 


Laura Jarrett [00:15:13] I agree that it's toothless in action, as Harry writes, but that it was, it was done for a purpose and it was done for a reason, and it was done in a way that was so disturbing that the chief of election crimes had to step down because he felt like he couldn't do his job with a level of integrity that he was comfortable with, given this long standing policy, a 40 years policy was overturned. And it reminded me so much of the situation surrounding Roger Stone, because a DOJ official told one of my colleagues about this, that Barr wasn't asked by anybody to do it. 


And every time they say things like that, it's just so clear, he doesn't have to be asked to do it. He knows exactly what the president wants him to do, because the president tells them every day on Twitter what to do. The only thing that he hasn't done, that the president really wants, is to come after Obama, Biden, Comey, those are the, the high-dollar figures that Barr has not gone after, that has created such a situation that the president is disappointed in his performance. But the memo really makes it clear, I think, that this was for show, because the cases that had been brought so far do not impact the vote totals, and they have to impact the vote totals in order to be brought before certification. And so really, nothing is going to change on the ground, and I think U.S. attorneys in the field know that, U.S. attorneys in the field saw exactly what this was. 


Harry Litman [00:16:35] Yeah, 'thanks Attorney General, if I can bring you the broomstick of the Wicked Witch of the West, I'll be right in court'. It's not as if this happened to be the policy and he shifted it, this is the very core of the policy that you do not want the federal government mucking around precisely between election and certification, lest they look as if they're putting a thumb on the scale for the incumbent. That's the very reason we have it. All right, Laura called this a bit of the bizarro government, let's go back to the real emerging government now and what we've seen of Biden as he begins to exercise the powers that will move to him on January 20th. His two big moves seem like the antithesis of Trump. This task force is full of exactly the kind of experts that Trump has not just shunned, but disparaged, and then Ron Klain, he probably, would have maybe been the choice in any event. But a competent Washington guy, does it tell you anything in particular about Biden's going to govern, or given Ron's very long and close relationship with Biden, he went directly from a clerkship that we did the same year to chair of Biden's Judiciary Committee at like age 29, was it pretty much a foregone conclusion that he was going to get the nod? 


Peter Baker [00:18:02] I think it's likely Klain would have been the choice no matter what. He brings a lot to the table, decades of experience with Biden going back to his days on the Hill. He was his vice presidential chief of staff, he was a candidate for chief of staff under Obama. So everybody sort of thought of Ron as a chief of staff in waiting for years. Ron Klain, it's a back to sort of more normal mode in Washington. Everyone in Washington knows who Ron Klain is, if they don't know him personally, they know who he is. Republicans and Democrats respect him, obviously I would think Republicans think of him as a partisan and obviously he wouldn't be their cup of tea, but they don't, I've never heard anybody say anything bad about him. I think that he's got a widespread respect because he's been here for a long time. And that's the opposite of the Trump people, who came in sort of pulling together an administration out of bits and parts of people who had no experience in Washington whatsoever, had no idea how the place worked and a few people who did. 


And I think that the Klain's choice tells you that Biden is just sort of returning back to the status quo ante, in effect, in terms of how you put together a White House, the kind of people you put in power, and how you move forward structurally. Now, he may not be able to get away with the status quo ante in terms of policy, or in terms of leadership, because this is a different era. But in terms of staffing his White House, I think we'll see a lot of places that are familiar people in Washington. 


Robert Raben [00:19:14] Obama, Clinton, Carter, all terrific presidents, all came from outside of Washington and prided themselves appropriately on bringing a new class of leadership to populate the top tier of the government. Obviously not completely, but that was the ethos. Here we have something the Democratic Party hasn't seen in at least 50 years, maybe since LBJ, where it's accepted and trusted that the people who were closest to the president are deeply experienced, good and bad, at how Washington operates. It's just going to be interesting to return to that. 


Harry Litman [00:19:50] I think that's fair, and everyone does know Ron Klain, and I think he's considered a affable person that they can talk to, a sort of good cop. So is there going to be a bad cop here? 


Robert Raben [00:20:03] It's a great question. The finest president in my lifetime, Barack Obama, amazingly put Rahm Emanuel... 


Harry Litman [00:20:10] Well, the ultimate bad cop, right?


Robert Raben [00:20:12] Not just a bad guy, but who believed it was saintly to get up every day and be a bad guy. An interesting decision by Obama who, that is not as it goes to put that person in charge. So we don't have that in Ron Klain. Now, push back a little bit on the premise, whether you you have to be a bad person, male or female. There are extremely affable people who know how to say no, and work with private sector ferocity to have them do the dirty work. So I'll sort of push back on the premise, but I will point out Biden knows what he's doing. 


Harry Litman [00:20:45] Yeah, but that is a fair point. They know how to apply the pressure. 


Peter Baker [00:20:49] Can I sort of disagree with that a little bit, at least? I mean, like we're getting the Republicans, OK, because obviously Republicans are going to be a unique challenge. The question for me is how he's going to discipline or keep the Democrats behind him. I mean, one thing we've seen about Trump, like him or hate him, he kept the Republicans behind him. They did not break with him, as we're seeing even today, and that's something we haven't seen, I think, by any president, frankly, going back many years. I mean, every other president, Republican and Democrat, had to deal with this set within their own party, in fact, quite often that was the most frustrating part about being president. 


Certainly that was true with Obama and Clinton and sometimes with Bush during the Iraq war and Reagan even, I mean, had a lot of Republicans from time to time would balk at him, including Dick Cheney, for instance, over a major tax bill, those kinds of things. And Trump basically didn't have that. He had more uniformity, even though they didn't like him very much, among his Republican lawmakers than any president we've seen. Is Biden going to be able to enforce that kind of same discipline, or is he going to be sitting there constantly dealing with whack a mole moderates who are upset about this, and the liberals are upset about that. His coalition is so fragile to begin with. It was basically built on animus toward Donald Trump, not out of any ideological cohesion. So that to me is going to be a really important challenge for him. 


Laura Jarrett [00:21:55] One of the times I think you're going to see this come up pretty quickly is with who he picks for some of the more sensitive posts, thinking of attorney general, thinking of secretary of state. AOC tells The New York Times he can't pick Rahm. Now, I don't know that Rahm was in the running for anything in Biden's cabinet, but the fact that she said that in that interview, I thought was noteworthy and sort of a warning shot of what's to come, to Peter's point about some of the Dem-infighting that we've seen already. And to the extent that people, I think, had a conception that McConnell had such a longstanding relationship with Biden that they might be able to reach deals together given their past. 


I think the past week has shown us that that may not be such a safe bet. I think there was this idea that's even explored in President Obama's latest book about the idea that the first black president didn't get the same respect that some others had, and that they were able to work with Biden in a way that they were tone deaf to the president. But I think that they're going to put up a fight on some of these nominees, and it's going to expose some issues there with Democrats and the president elect. 


Robert Raben [00:23:01] It's shimmera, it's an oasis to think that he's going to have that kind of hegemony among the Democrats, he's not. That's not who the Democrats are, one. Two, you've got some amazing evidence in front of you that he was able to do it from the basement, ran a very disciplined campaign. He picked an African-American woman to be the vice president, a woman, an African-American, a South Asian, in an interracial marriage. So he's shown some tremendous ability to navigate what is, by definition, our fractious party, and I think that will continue. But it's not going to be pleasant. Both the left and the right have very, very important intraparty - I won't say warfare, but serious conversations about who we are, and that's because the parties are movements treated as if they're C3 organizations. But they're movements, and movements are fractious. 


Harry Litman [00:23:49] Talk a little bit about what you see is the schism within the Republicans between the - well, who are the jets and the sharks there? 


Robert Raben [00:23:56] They're going to go back to regular order, which is what Reagan codified. And it was a outside conspiracy, because I'm on the left, but it was an agreement between the Chamber of Commerce and the then Christian Coalition, which was the Moral Majority, which is now the Federalist Society, that said, we will each look the other way. You do what you need to do on social issues, as long as we get deregulation and lower taxes. 


Those two wings created a symbiotic political - I think we're going to go right back to that. And Stephen Schwarzman, who has been a rah-rah for Trump, is now going to have to figure out, does he stick with Trumpism? And I don't know if that's Tom Cotton or Nikki Haley or whom, or go back to the Chamber of Commerce Republican Party, where those, he and his other CEOs were happy for years. That's what I think is going to happen on the right, there's going to be the Trump mantle, which used to be the Christian Coalition, which used to be the Moral Majority, and it's going to be the Chamber of Commerce. Now, I'll stop with, note the actual Chamber of Commerce, I was using that metaphorically, the actual Chamber of Commerce is figuring out how to get along with Democrats. 


Harry Litman [00:25:07] Yeah, got it. And just a quick comment on the more publicized divide within the Democratic Party, there may be a crazy way in which, assuming the Dems don't win both runoffs, Biden's path is a little easier with McConnell as majority leader, at least on some issues where he can just say, look, I've got to play ball with him versus trying to bring everyone from Joe Manchin to Sheldon Whitehouse along on a particular issue. Let me ask, is anybody watching a particular appointment that Biden's going to be announcing as a bellwether or tell about his presidency? 


Robert Raben [00:25:47] White House counsel and A.G. 


Laura Jarrett [00:25:50] Same. 


Harry Litman [00:25:50] Same. 


Peter Baker [00:25:51] Yeah, I'm interested in what he does on secretary of state, just because I think that it tips you on whether the election scrambled the choice. Susan Rice had seemed to be the obvious frontrunner prior to the election, does that change because of McConnell still possibly controlling the Senate, I don't know. I think one of the things that was really interesting about that cabinet is all four top slots, the most obvious candidates for each of the four are women, and he can make a real statement, having already now chosen a woman as a vice president, if he gives those four slots to the candidates who seem most likely to be in line anyway, right? Susan Rice at State, Lael Brainard at Treasury, Michele Flournoy at Defense, and maybe, maybe Sally Yates, but there are some more candidates, A.G. to Sally Yates, and maybe Sally Yates is also harder because of the Republican Senate, assuming they keep control. 


Harry Litman [00:26:36] Yeah, I'm thinking of A.G. also because of the very thing we were just discussing about Barr. He's got a lot of very solid candidates, but many of them come traditionally from the political world, even though they're perfectly qualified. And Adam Schiff, for example, but he may want to signal a real return to, quote unquote, professionalism at the department, and that would weigh in favor of an old hand who's made his or her bones in the department itself, like a Sally Yates. OK, well, we'll be seeing this over the next few weeks, and my guess is that also will relate to what we were talking about up top, once he's named four or five or six important cabinet members, the charade that Trump's trying to carry on will get harder and harder. 


OK, it's now time to take a moment for our Sidebar feature, which explains some of the terms and relationships that are foundational to the world of law and politics that we discuss. Today, we're continuing a sort of back to basics stretch about federal prosecutorial practice, explaining the charge of mail and wire fraud, which is sort of the all purpose Swiss Army knife of the federal prosecutor. And to explain, we are very pleased to welcome Matt Tyrnauer. Matt's an American writer, director, producer and journalist. He directed the documentaries Citizen Jane: Battle for the City, Studio 54, and Valentino: The Last Emperor, which was shortlisted for an Oscar nomination. He is also an award winning journalist, and is currently a contributing editor at Vanity Fair. So I give you Matt Tyrnauer on mail and wire fraud. 


Matt Tyrnauer [00:28:26] What is mail and wire fraud, and what is included within it? Federal prosecutors may only investigate and prosecute federal criminal and civil law, which under the Constitution is limited to certain subjects called enumerated powers. So, for example, Congress could not pass a criminal law that prohibits all fraud. However, over the years, Congress has used its enumerated powers to pass criminal laws that cover a wide variety of subjects. A good example of this is the mail and wire fraud statutes, which were passed under Congress' power to establish the post office and regulate commerce. 


Violation of these statutes carries a term in federal prison of up to 30 years per offense. These crimes cover any fraudulent scheme that includes the use of mail or interstate wire communications. Wire communications include telephone and Internet, and this language permits prosecution of a wide variety of frauds. The use of mail or wire communications does not have to be essential to the fraud, just a step in the plot. These crimes are a good example of how Congress can often, 'make a federal case out of it.' This is Matt Tyrnauer, for Talking Feds. 


Harry Litman [00:29:36] Thanks very much, Matt Tyrnauer. Tyrnauer is now working on The Reagans, a four part docu-series set to premiere on Showtime in early 2021.  


All right, I wanted to talk just a little bit more about the campaign postmortem, we're learning more things as the analysis comes in about the current state of American life. First, it does seem that for whatever reason, Biden was the right guy for this juncture. You had a lot of Democrats tepid about him, but he outpolled many of the Democratic nominees for Senate. And it really seems like his elder-statesman, good guy credentials were just the sort of anti-Trump tonic that the country was looking for. 


Peter Baker [00:32:09] Yeah, I would say so. Look, I mean, Democrats want to put up the anti-Trump the anti-Trump was somebody who was inoffensive,, and likable and didn't polarize their own coalition. And that was who Biden turn out to be, right? Now, the problem for Biden, or the challenge for Biden is translating that negative mandate into a positive mandate, right? The mandate that many Democrats saw in this election is we got rid of Trump, but they don't agree on what the positive mandate is. OK, we want sweeping legislation on climate change, on guns, on health care, all these trillion dollar plans that were put out there during the primaries, all of which seem sort of laughable given a Republican Senate. So we don't yet really know, I think, how Biden takes this this election victory, which is more, more convincing than it look like on election night, but less than a Reagan-like sweep, and translates that into the next four years, other than not being Trump. I think that's the really interesting question going forward. 


Laura Jarrett [00:33:00] It's a convincing victory, but given that we're still in the middle of a pandemic that has killed hundreds of thousands of people, it was a remarkably close race given, given where we stand as a country, given the president's leadership on such an important issue, the number of people and conversations that I think all of us have had this week with people who are just confounded by that result, I think tells you something about just the divide in the country, that people can live in almost two different universes in this country. I mean, I don't know about where you were, Harry, but at least where I was in New York, the sounds were deafening. And not just for five minutes, but for hours. You walk the street, people are hugging, people are crying, people are clapping, horns are blaring. It's as if a dictator had been been dethroned, it's as if a war had ended. I mean, people talk about a pressure valve, I think it was way more emotional than that. 


And yet there are millions of people who are extremely disappointed, who think this entire thing was rigged, to use the president's word, and have no confidence in our electoral system. And so I think there are, there are questions to be thought about how the media tells that story better, and how we get to the divide better. We do profiles on all of these little pockets of the country, but I still think there's so much more work to be done to explain better how you can just live in two different universes here, in order to try to get to, to what happened last week. 


Robert Raben [00:34:37] Well, one thing the Democrats do, cycle after cycle after cycle, is refuse to figure out how to talk to evangelical whites. And increasingly, they've sort of written them off as an other world. Well, it's the United States of America, guess what? I don't know if they're a plurality, but it's a very significant bloc, and I point to the Democrats' success with evangelical African-Americans as Exhibit A that you can be deeply religious, you can worry about reproductive rights, you can worry even about homosexuals like me and still vote Democratic. But the party apparatus and all of the sort of concentric circles around it - the Sierra Clubs and the Human Rights Campaigns and the other - that make up the progressive establishment, have yet to figure out a strategy to speak to evangelical whites in a way that's remotely respectful. And it's malpractice, it's a political malpractice. 


Harry Litman [00:35:27] Yeah, I mean, you would think that if ever they had the opportunity, having Trump as their banner-waver really gave an opening. But you're right, the evangelical community stuck with him. Love the sinner, hate the sin, plus the judges. But let's go to the race question, actually, because I think a lot of people were perplexed, or at least found it noteworthy that Trump marginally increased his vote among African-Americans and pretty significantly among Hispanics. And, is that a harbinger of trouble going forward for the Democrats? 


Peter Baker [00:36:06] First of all, it's a harbinger of trouble for the political world to - and a reminder not to make assumptions about people based on categories that we are, we ought to be much more careful about that. I think we are too easy to say X type of people demographics, whether it be racial or religious or gender or whatever, fit into this kind of box. And they don't. And they don't. And he was probably our most racially incendiary president we've seen going back decades, if not longer. And yet, you're right, there's a really interesting result in some of these exit polls - how much we believe the exit polls, of course, is up for grabs - but it does seem like he increased his numbers. Now, among the African-American vote is still relatively small, right? Still, it's still at eight percent. It was better among African-American men, terrible among African-American women. Among Hispanics. I think it was something like 39% or something like that. 


Harry Litman [00:36:55] And it was decisive in Florida, although that, it's always sui generis, Florida. 


Peter Baker [00:36:59] But I remind you. Right, all Hispanics are not the same. Don't don't treat them the same. Cubans and Venezuelans and Salvadorans and Mexicans, everybody has their own different history and culture and background. And even within those communities, people have different points of view about things. And I think that he did well among Hispanics who take the abortion issue seriously and are maybe very Catholic and I think that that was an important issue for them. I think there are obviously some people who are here who think Cuba is the most important issue. There are some who came here legally and resent people who come here illegally, and therefore might have agreed with his anti-immigrant rhetoric, even as, even if they were themselves a product of families that came here at some point earlier in these decades and centuries. So, you know, we have to be careful about over-simplifying complicated communities. 


Robert Raben [00:37:45] And the meta here, it's similar to what I said about white evangelicals. The party apparatus has not made the emotional decision that Latinos in the United States, who are 58 million people, are your peers, yet they are treated, like African-Americans used to be treated, as fungible widgets that get moved around an electoral chessboard every two or four years. And in fact, it is the fabric of America, and I'll, I'll do a sort of a distinction to show the disparity between how the Democratic Party treats different groups: Jewish Americans, of which I am one, we're much smaller, but the Democratic Party can tell you, down to the minyan, the difference between a Jew in Kiryas Joel or Williamsburg, as opposed to one on the Upper West Side of Manhattan, as opposed to a South Florida condominium Jew, as opposed to an Austin Jew. 


They can tell you everything they need to know about that voter profile. And when it comes to Latinos, it's, it is just a huge brown iceberg. There is zero investment. And when I say zero, I am not being funny, there is zero investment in figuring out the nuance. And an exciting piece to look at is similar Mexican Americans - that is, very diverse groups of Mexican Americans - behave wildly differently in Arizona and Nevada than they did in South Texas, very similar polyglot of Mexican Americans, mixed immigrant communities, et cetera, et cetera. It's about organizing, it's about respect, it's about letting Latinos lead the effort. So I'm excited that hopefully this will be a wake up call to say - I hope to both parties, but clearly the Democratic Party - guess what? There's tremendous complexity and richness here, and if you want it, you got to fight for it. 


Harry Litman [00:39:31] Great point. There's one other sort of nugget that's emerging from the postmortem, the election that in some ways speaks to the depth and the persistence of the partisan divide. Apparently, the pollsters are learning that Republicans, in a statistically meaningful way, are less likely to respond to pollsters in the first place. And that's part of what made for the - again not, not 2016 levels, but still - some important miscalculations. And it also to me, the most likely explanation, is that in the age of Trump, they're less likely to trust any institution. And that goes for the pollsters who are calling them up and asking who they're going to vote for. All right, so those are the bigger lessons learned, I think, from the election, which now blessedly stays behind us, we hope. We have time now just for our last feature of Five Words or Fewer, where we take a question from a listener and each of us has to answer in five words or fewer. Our question today is from Billy Schaff, who asks: Do the Democrats have a credible chance of winning both Georgia runoffs? And if so, what is the key for them? 


Robert Raben [00:40:53] Yes, turnout. 


Laura Jarrett [00:40:55] Yes, Stacey Abrams. 


Peter Baker [00:40:56] Credible, but I wouldn't bet House.


Harry Litman [00:40:59] Long shot, but Abrams' efforts. 


Thank you very much to Peter, Laura and Robert, and thank you very much listeners for tuning in to Talking Feds. If you like what you've heard, please tell a friend to subscribe to us on Apple Podcasts or wherever they get their podcast, and please take a moment to rate and review this podcast. You can follow us on Twitter @TalkingFedsPod to find out about future episodes and other Feds related content. You can check us out on the web, talkingfeds.com , where we have full episode transcripts, and you can look to see our latest offerings on Patreon, where we post discussions about special topics exclusively for supporters. Submit your questions to questions@talkingfeds.com , whether it's for Five Words or Fewer, or general questions about the inner workings of the legal system for our Sidebar segments. Thanks for tuning in, and don't worry: as long as you need answers, the Feds will keep talking. 


Talking Feds is produced by Jennifer Bassett and Rebecca Lowe Patton. Our editor is Justin Wright. David Lieberman and Rosie Don Griffin are our contributing writers. Production assistance by Matt McArdle. Our consulting producer is Andrea Carla Michaels. Thanks very much to Matt Tyrnauer for his sidebar on mail and wire fraud. Our gratitude goes out, as always, to the wonderful Philip Glass, who graciously lets us use his music. Talking Feds is a production of Dalito, LLC. I'm Harry Litman, see you next time.


WELCOME BACK, AMERICA

Harry Litman [00:00:07] Welcome to Talking Feds, a roundtable that brings together prominent former federal officials and special guests for a dynamic discussion of the most important political and legal topics of the day. I'm Harry Litman. Bells rang out around the country and the world, from Boston to Mumbai and Philadelphia to Paris, where the mayor tweeted, "Welcome back, America." After two long days when the networks held back, even though the math looked indomitable, a cache of votes from Pennsylvania brought a cascade of announcements from five networks in two minutes, making it official that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are the next president and vice president of the United States. The victory vindicated Biden's consistent strategy of rebuilding the blue wall of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania that Trump had breached in 2016, and doing so with a campaign that stayed calm and steady from post to post. The recognition of Trump's, loss even more than Biden's victory, hit home with a quality far more dramatic than a typical presidential election. 


There was an exultant feel, like the end of a foreign occupation, with people suddenly realizing that they are no longer under a tyrant's yoke. As a reveler in Boston put it, 'we've been holding our breath for four years.' There seemed a giddiness just in the sense of a return to normalcy from the grotesque faux-Trump family to the real Biden family, from the lying and viciousness of the third rate bully, still proclaiming he'd won the election, to the everyday decency of the next president and the familiar sense of America that he embodies. Addressing the nation Saturday evening from Wilmington, Delaware, both Biden and Harris sounded healing, inclusive tones and resolved to begin immediately the hard work of battling the virus (which continues to set records), repairing the economy, and tackling racial injustice and climate change. 


Trump, meanwhile, vowed to bring a flurry of new lawsuits in a vain attempt to reverse the tide. Biden has inherited one of the toughest hands in presidential history, not simply the number and magnitude of the messes Trump will leave behind, but the likely antagonism of coordinate branches. Mitch McConnell, the betting favorite to remain majority leader in the Senate, will try to tie him in knots at every turn, starting even possibly with Biden's own executive branch appointments, and simply refuse to bring to the floor any progressive legislation. To assess what the campaign results say about where we are as a country and to look ahead to the Biden presidency, we have three of the keenest political observers in the country. They are:


Natasha Bertrand, whom we also call 'Scoop' is the national security correspondent at Politico, and a political analyst for NBC and MSNBC. She has broken literally dozens of stories in the Trump era, she previously was a staff writer for The Atlantic. Natasha, thanks as always for coming. 


Natasha Bertrand [00:03:18] Thanks for having me. 


Harry Litman [00:03:20] Joe Lockhart. Joe was previously press secretary under President Clinton from 1998 to 2000, and before then to a number of prominent officials, including Walter Mondale and Michael Dukakis. His communications consulting firm, Glover Park Group, has worked for Facebook and the NFL, among many others. Joe, welcome. 


Joe Lockhart [00:03:42] Thanks for having me. 


Harry Litman [00:03:43] Mike Murphy, a guest here on Talking Feds for the first time, has been a political consultant for many years to prominent Republicans, including John McCain and Mitt Romney. He is also an NBC analyst and a TV writer/producer partnering with Hollywood whiz kid Ed Radlick, and he is co-director of the USC Center for the Political Future and co-host of the Hacks on Tap podcast. Mike, welcome to Talking Feds. 


Mike Murphy [00:04:12] It is good to be here. 


Harry Litman [00:04:15] All right. Today is the first day of the rest of our lives, but let's begin with a quick postmortem on the campaign. Let me start here. How would you put the Biden winning strategy in a sentence? 


Mike Murphy [00:04:26] Not Trump; comfortable; fix COVID; end the chaos. 


Harry Litman [00:04:32] OK, semicolons there, but that's a sentence. 


Natasha Bertrand [00:04:35] Not Trump; stayed focused, and really drove black voter turnout. 


Harry Litman [00:04:41] Yeah. 


Joe Lockhart [00:04:41] Knew exactly the coalition he needed to put together, exactly how many votes he needed to get, and stayed true to that strategy, no matter how many people criticized them. 


Harry Litman [00:04:53] Yeah, that's what really struck me. And Joe and Mike, you've been inside the cauldron of a campaign, it seems to me as an outside observer, it's almost par for the course for people to get nervous, have changes in direction, but they thought blue wall it seemed to me from the start, and they stayed calm and methodical and quiet. And then as you both imply, Mike and Natasha, they were smart to make sure this was a referendum on Trump and not the sort of standard election where Trump's playbook could be just try to trash Biden, they really kept the focus. Sometimes I think he was criticized for not being enough on the hustings, but you have the impression of a very professional, well-seasoned group knowing exactly the bet that they were planning to place and just doubling down all the way. 


Mike Murphy [00:05:45] Yeah, they were like the ball team that played the fundamentals. They knew it's a referendum on the incumbent and the incumbent was in trouble, let the incumbent stay in trouble because Trump just can't change up his act. You know, he's the atomic clock of being Donald Trump. They knew what they had was empathy. That's who Biden is. They thought, boy, we can, if that works, put a big magnifying glass on it. And they were resilient, they didn't let the cable TV bloviating cycle run their campaign. They had a very one foot in front of the other, and I thought they were good and the last thing is, and this might be brilliant planning, it might also be circumstances turning into luck. But the fact that in the general election they were broke early, didn't let them do what the Trump guys did, which was blow a lot of money on stupidity. 


So when the money came rolling in, there was never a day in advertising from the convention to Election Day where Biden wasn't beating Trump on advertising in the key states. So Biden could outmuscle Trump on the airwaves, every time Trump got a little offense going, Biden had the money in the Michigans and Wisconsins, et cetera, to push back. And then he had enough money to go start fights in other places to drain Trump's resources, like Florida, which ultimately he lost. But that was kinda Trump's Stalingrad. Trump defunded his other states to fight this epic battle in Florida. And so Biden just played the money-spending side really smart. 


Joe Lockhart [00:07:02] I think one of the very smart things they did, any presidential race is generally defined by who can make the other side the issue. Could the, was this going to be about Biden, the socialists, the senile, or was this going to be about Trump, his erratic performance? And I think the Biden people understood that Donald Trump had a very difficult time making anything about anybody other than himself. And they stood back at the right times and let Trump talk about himself because he couldn't make it about Biden, because he only sees himself. Some days were better spent in the basement, letting Trump talk about himself. 


Natasha Bertrand [00:07:39] That's exactly what I was going to say also, is that Trump and his allies really never figured out how to effectively attack Biden. They never were able to really legitimately kind of frame him as corrupt in a way that they tried to frame Hillary Clinton as such, and it kind of stuck in 2016 because it was built up over years and years and years of them trying to demonize Hillary Clinton and allege that she was a corrupt person and it just never stuck the way that it did with her, with regard to Joe Biden. They tried, I mean, the last minute push by Trump to make Hunter Biden and his business dealings an issue and this whole laptop saga that really fizzled. None of it worked. And, of course, we have the added benefit of not having any real interference by foreign adversaries this time around. 


Four years ago, obviously, the Russians did everything that they could to try to help Trump win this time, because I think Hillary Clinton wasn't running against him, and of course, Vladimir Putin hates Hillary Clinton with a passion. They seem to have not have tried as hard, and that was something that pleasantly surprised a lot of national security officials as well, so it was a combination of the Biden campaign just allowing Trump to implode, of Trump never really finding a line of attack that was resonating on a wide level, and the reluctance of foreign adversaries to really delve into this fight this time around. 


Harry Litman [00:09:02] Yeah, at least as best we can tell, right? And there were a few dogs that didn't bark, a big one being Hunter Biden, or there were worries about the DOJ coming in, etc.. I'm no political savant, but I would offer a corollary to Joe's rule, which is, seems to me the campaign that's changing up strategies and doing new things every couple of weeks is likely the one that's losing, and that was Trump and very much not Biden this cycle. 


Joe Lockhart [00:09:29] Yeah, I'd argue actually that there wasn't foreign interference in this election, there was domestic interference. What we didn't see in 2016 were groups like Mike's Group, Project Lincoln and some others, and I think what they did, and I don't know, y'know some point in the postmortem, we'll see how many votes got stripped off, but they did a very important job in setting the narrative and getting people talking about the things Trump didn't want talked about. And that's what the Russians did in 2016 with WikiLeaks dumps and all of that, and every day there was this just more and more chum for the media to chew on, and I think that had a huge impact and it may not have moved a lot of Republicans, but it very much helped set the narrative for the campaign. 


Harry Litman [00:10:16] Mike, why is that? Ninety three percent I think he still gets of Republicans, did that surprise you? 


Mike Murphy [00:10:21] We actually don't know. We...so, Republican Voters Against Trump, which I'm strategic adviser to, we had kind of a three part plan. Part one was to do this permission campaign, and we got about 900 people to kind of talk to their laptop and make ads about why they couldn't do it, talk about being pro-life, Republican, their kind of history, why they just couldn't go there for Trump. And we tested the best ones and then pumped them out on digital advertising in Pennsylvania, Arizona and North Carolina. We've managed to chip away, the problem is the exits aren't any good till they're weighted to real results. This is another year where the exit polls were close but no cigar. So we're going to wait and see, but we tracked that and did a lot of data work, and we think just taking him from 93 down to 90 or 89 in a few places, which I think you're going to see in the Pennsylvanias and Wisconsins was meaningful. The other two things we did was we decided to start a real war in Florida, because we thought two things happened, either we break them early with Florida because they count the vote quick, or we cost them a ton of money. 


And so the Bloomberg guys, we were in there 10 million, all targeted. And most of our counties, by the way, Trump declined. The problem was Miami-Dade just vanished off the map, a twenty point decline from Hillary Clinton for Joe, and that's a bunch of other stuff. And then finally, we were always trying to feed the news cycle with newsworthy people from the administration, like Olivia Troy, because they had compelling stories. It took huge courage for these kind of career people to come out. And then, you know, General Hayden, we would just have credible people. And as Joe said, we knew Trump would see it, the national media that is always going to be interested in personnel defections and kind of Washington stories would amplify it. And for not a lot of money, we were just constantly on offense doing that. We worked hard, and so we got a bunch of happy Republicans who were defectors, and now I like to joke that I'm renting, not buying, but next job is going to be rebuilding the Republican Party and that's going to be a lift. 


Harry Litman [00:12:12] All right, well, let's move to the flip side then, which is an overall performance, not so much of the Biden Harris campaign, but of the party in the House, the Senate, the state elections that fell short of at least hopes that had begun to develop almost into expectations by the time of the election. So in retrospect, did the Dems overall do something wrong? Did the Republicans do something right? Or is it just we again, underestimated this unyielding partisan divide in the country, even leaving Trump out of it? 


Natasha Bertrand [00:12:46] I think the Democrats are still trying to figure out what happened, they are obviously not completely demoralized because they won the presidency, but they did not do as well as they had expected in the down ballot races. So we're already seeing sniping going on between the more progressive parts of the party and the more moderate parts. We saw that in a caucus phone call last week that was immediately leaked to reporters. There was some more of the moderate Democrats saying that the defund the police movement and things like that had almost cost them their race, even though no Democrat campaigned on that issue. But there's a lot of finger pointing that's going on now, and I think Democrats are coming to terms with the fact that this was not a repudiation of Trumpism, even though it seemed to be a repudiation on some levels of Trump himself. 


So we now see that Republicans who want to have a chance in 2024 and who hope to be the frontrunners in their races then are doing everything that they can to curry favor with Trump and his children and his allies because they realize that Trumpism itself is not going away, that a very, very, very large portion of the country hoped that by electing Trump and by electing Republicans who agree with his principles, if you can call them that, and his policies, that those are going to continue, even if Trump goes quietly into that good night. So Democrats, I think, still have a chance of taking the Senate. Fairly small chance, but we have two runoffs in Georgia and we're going to see a lot of money pouring into those races, obviously. But they're upset and they are questioning why they didn't do better in these races. 


Joe Lockhart [00:14:26] I'll speak for myself as a Democrat, I am the opposite of demoralized. I'm charged up. I think there's some people within the party that had their interests not well served and they're talking about it. And even if we had swept the Senate, the House and the White House, we were going to have this fight as the party. The fight between left and center, that was inevitable. It's actually, I think, a good thing for the party if we can do it the right way. So you're seeing a little bit of that, but I think Democrats, if you get outside the punditry, are very happy. You saw it on the streets last night, and what I attribute Democratic Senate candidates in particular and also some House underperforming, is I think we as Democrats and I think the pollsters also underestimated the value and the strength of the down ballot Trump effect for Republicans. I don't think anyone was expecting that many Republicans to show up, and they they voted along the party line. The recent 2018 was a Democratic blue wave as Trump wasn't on the ticket, and a lot of people just stayed home. So when I look at Georgia, if you asked anybody a year ago, could you win two runoffs in Georgia, the answer would have been, are you crazy? I don't think it's so crazy right now. I think without Trump on the ballot, with both of those races being very, potentially very close, it could happen. 


Mike Murphy [00:15:45] I agree with a lot of that. I mean, I think if you step back, it was well known that Donald Trump was in political trouble for the last two years. You look at the midterms, look at the special elections, so that with a little - not a little, a lot of overenthusiastic polling - kind of morphed into the idea that we're going to have this big wave and the Republicans are going to get wiped out from coast to coast. Then you have an election that sets a turnout record of all time with the number one vote getter, Joe Biden, the number two, Donald J. Trump. So everybody's army of all sizes and shapes turned out. And in the more competitive states, there was a return of something that kind of conventional wisdom had said was gone forever, and I never believed it, ticket splitting. You had people who had enough with Trump but were more comfortable with their local Republican. You also had a good incumbency factor working in some of those Senate races. A great example, Susan Collins, and I told one of her consultants, a friend of mine, that you should all do t-shirts for next time called 'Senator Susan Collins. Next time, try kryptonite,' because she had Biden wipe out the statewide number and she hung on. 


She knew how to use incumbency to run the senator pothole campaign about local issues. Joni Ernst to some extent in a much more favorable state so, I think there was kind of an appetite whetted by Trump's political problem that Republicans down the ballot in competitive states with a lot of turnout were able to carve things out. I also think the Dems got into the stake of Trump, Trump, Trump, which works in the presidential election where you can fire at him, but it wasn't a clean debate like 2018 was on preexisting conditions. That said, the key mission was beating Donald Trump, which is hard to beat an incumbent president, seeing how this is number five in a long, long time, over a hundred years. So I'm kind of with Joe. They're in a stronger position than they were, and you can count a House seat or two, there was no huge coattail effect, but the Dems are much, much better position than they were. And those two runoffs are going to be uphill, but not impossible. I agree with that. 


Natasha Bertrand [00:17:41] I just have a question and I'm curious what Joe might think. The, speaking of sniping by the more progressive wing of the Democratic Party, I'm just wondering what you make of the attacks by AOC the other day on groups like Project Lincoln alleging that they took finite money and resources away from voter turnout operations on the ground by people like Stacey Abrams, for example, and how now she says that that money should be funneled now towards those operations in the future. I'm just wondering what you what you guys think of that, because it seems like it's, it's definitely a harbinger of things to come. 


Joe Lockhart [00:18:16] Yeah. I mean, I think this fight was inevitable. The party has to figure out whether it's going to lean further left or further right. The coalition that Joe Biden put together cannot completely co-exist when it comes to issues, and the party does have to sort it out. I think AOC was reacting to some things that were being sent, I'd argue she overreacted, but I don't think this is the main game. This may be the game of people who cover Capitol Hill and like to see who's mad at who, but I don't think there's a lot of people out in the country, at least among my pretty big Twitter group that is worried about this. There's a little bit of sniping, of course they are. I want to just come back to something that Mike said and underline it, which is: it is really, really hard to beat an incumbent president. This is the first time since FDR beat Herbert Hoover that an incumbent president was defeated without a significant third party. So a real head to head race, John Anderson played a big role in 1980. Ross Perot played a big role in 1992. So this was a straight up, an incumbent president with all of the power of the presidency, who at the end of the day is going to lose by - Mike, you may know better because I know California's still counting - maybe seven million votes?


Mike Murphy [00:19:33] It could get there, yeah six and a half to seven. And the other thing, you know, I'm not part of Lincoln. They had some different tactics than we did, but we're all in the anti-Trump army of light together. I take the same view of AOC that Speaker Pelosi does, which is chattering troublemaker. But the progressive wing has energy and she speaks for it. But I'm kind of with Joe. I don't think people in the real world care. I mean, if she wants to get in the fight with the Lincoln Group and she can audit them and they can audit her, who knows? Not my battle. I don't think many people care. I do think though, some of the moderates in the House, you know, they had a caucus phone call, there were some sparks, are worried that the progressive wing is fuel for opponents to define them. 


And I think there's some truth in that. I think that the progressive wing is great at winning very, very safe districts, that a box of hammers with a D on it would probably win. And it does give, and you're going to see this in Georgia, because they're going to run them as super progressives and we'll see if it has traction. The Democrats won't run that way, but the Repubs will try to define them. So I think some of the moderate Democrats are right to be concerned with some of the fiery progressive rhetoric. But that's an old fight, and we have it in the Republican Party, too. We've got the Freedom Caucus, which is always gold for Democrats. So it's just I guess it's politics as usual. 


Natasha Bertrand [00:20:49] What do you think the role will be for Republican voters against Trump and the Lincoln Project and those kinds of groups moving forward, now that Trump's been defeated? 


Mike Murphy [00:20:56] Well, this is one difference. I think. Lincoln says they're going to go jump into the Georgia race, and Lincoln does more low dollar fundraising. And I think that's probably what got the ire of AOC because they all kind of compete. We tried online, but we only raised about a million and a half, I think, which we're very grateful for, and we put 90 cents of every dollar to work. But we're not, we're Republican voters against Trump. So we're going to be in the internal Republican Party fight, but we didn't go do the Senate races. Lincoln went after Susan Collins with a ton of money. The Lincoln guys are kind of Jefferson-Lincoln Project now because they're totally on the D side. And I understand the argument, I got a lot of friends over there. 


We're still trying to fix the Republican Party because we think the center right, it needs to get back to being an important and respectable voice on policy. I mean, I didn't - I voted for Biden. I contributed to him, helped run a big effort to assist him. And I'm glad he won, but I'm, I'm not a Democrat. I'm not I'm not left of center. I'm right of center. So that's where I think Lincoln and our vet may go in different directions. But again, I can't speak for Lincoln. I just know they've said they're going to they're taking contributions now to go hop into the, the Senate race on the Democratic side, and we're not going to do that. 


Joe Lockhart [00:22:04] I think if you look at the Senate races in Georgia, I don't think the Lincoln Project's going to have that much of an impact. They may play, and they may move a point or two. I think you're going to see the Stacey Abrams experiment play out in very real time, which is you don't have to be a moderate Democrat to win in Georgia. You can be a progressive Democrat, but you've got to organize to make sure that progressive Democrats, the Democratic constituency, gets out and votes. And frankly, it's the only choice they have. I don't think either Osthoff or Warnaw can move back to the middle in two months, but I do think that they'll win if they can create more excitement on the democratic progressive side and turn out black Georgians, turn out Latino Georgians, and win by turnout. And that's a possibility. 


Mike Murphy [00:22:54] I think that is correct with a caveat, they can't scare the suburbs away. Because the whole thing is metro Atlanta, and you've got to get the Biden formula that worked in the suburbs around Atlanta to work as well as the Fulton County stuff did. 


Harry Litman [00:23:07] Just that we're talking about it is pretty remarkable, and you mentioned both the black and Latino vote. This may be for the next podcast, but a surprising thing for the Democratic Party to take account of is that Trump actually improved. This is the story of Dade County, his status with both black and Latino voters from 2016, especially among men. All right, it's now time to take a moment for our sidebar feature, which explains some of the terms and relationships that are foundational to legal or political events that are typically in the news, but not generally explained. 


And we're back to a bread and butter Feds topic: standards for murder prosecutions. What are the legal differences between different kinds of murders? And to tell us about that topic, we have a great sidebar reader: John Malkovich. John Malkovich, of course, is an American actor, voice actor, director, producer and fashion designer. He's appeared in more than 70 films, including The Killing Fields, Dangerous Liaisons and many others. And he's produced films such as Ghost World, Juno and The Perks of Being a Wallflower. He's received two Academy Award nominations for his performances in Places in the Heart and in the Line of Fire. I give you John Malkovich on standards for murder prosecutions. 


John Malkovich [00:24:31] What are the levels of homicide under federal law? Murder, or homicide, is usually prosecuted in state court by district attorney or state attorney general. For murder to be a federal crime, it must implicate a specific federal interest. For example, a murder committed on federal property, like the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing, or the murder of a federal officer, or a murder touching on special federal interest, like the deprivation of federal constitutional rights may be tried in the federal court unprosecuted by United States attorney's office. Like state homicides, federal homicides vary in degree, according mainly to the defendant's state of mind when the murder occurred. 


The main division is between murder on the one hand and manslaughter on the other. Murder has an old world antiquated definition under federal law: the unlawful killing of the human being with malice of forethought. Broken down, that definition includes a couple of basic elements. The killing must be: one, unlawful, so not legally justified in some way, and two, done with malice of forethought. In other words, thought through in advance as opposed to, for example, a killing done either unintentionally or in the heat of passion. Murder has two degrees under federal law. The degree charged depends on the facts at issue, and on Congress' assessment of the seriousness of the crime. If the killing was accomplished, for example, by poison or during the commission of another serious crime such as arson, kidnapping or sexual abuse, or if the killing was meticulously planned out in advance, it's a first degree murder. Otherwise, it will be charged and tried as a second degree murder offense. 


That leaves manslaughter, which is an unlawful killing without malice of forethought. Manslaughter, like murder, breaks out into two varieties: voluntary and involuntary. Voluntary doesn't really mean that the defendant meant to kill, it means instead that the murder happened in a circumstance that would cause a reasonable person to become emotionally or mentally disturbed, such as during a quarrel or in the heat of passion. Involuntary manslaughter generally entails doing something lawful, but in a way that is risky enough that it might produce another's death, like driving well over the speed limit, or while intoxicated. For Talking Feds. I'm John Malkovich. 


Harry Litman [00:27:13] Thanks very much to John Malkovich. You can see John as the title character in the HBO drama series, The New Pope, and in the Netflix comedy series Space Force. 


All right, let's talk now about the hand that President Biden will inherit when his hand goes up. It's a tough hand, right? I mean, I agree with Joe. I think everybody does, just the emotional high of Biden's victory. But: COVID now at new highs, unemployment stratospheric, McConnell, McConnell, McConnell, assuming that the Georgia duo don't come through. The Supreme Court limiting executive action, this center left fight, maybe Trump voters thinking fraud, et cetera. I don't remember any president starting out seemingly hamstrung on so many different levels and with so much hard work to do. It's like Obama in 2008, but with a much, much tougher set of circumstances with the coordinate branches. Am I being overly, overly negative about where he starts out? 


Joe Lockhart [00:30:35] I think if you look at the Obama comparison, I think in many ways Obama came in at a tougher time. The world's capital markets were collapsing. We could have gone into a global depression. I think one of the things you've seen about COVID is the economy has held up a little bit stronger around the world than everyone says. And I think on COVID for, for Biden, there's not a lot of place to go but up. You know, that we've just had no policy on COVID. And if you listen to the public health experts, they believe that if we just do a series of things consistently that are more aggressive than what we're doing now, we will begin to flatten the curve again. And vaccines, you know, they were never coming by Election Day, but by the middle of next year, I think Dr. Fauci thinks we might have a program up and running. I think the big issue is going to be McConnell. You know, I think Republicans who have spent wildly over the last four years are all of a sudden going to find that fiscal conservatism is what they really meant to do, and not because they're fiscally conservative, but because they want to stick it to Biden and they want to win in 2024. 


So I think the first big battle is going to be over stimulus. And we've got, this used to be Mnuchin and Nancy Pelosi and McConnell sitting it out. You've now got another Democrat at the table, Joe Biden, who doesn't approach things exactly the way Nancy Pelosi does, and I think Biden being able to navigate a generous stimulus plan and get that through, plus at least having, creating the impression that we're now aggressively taking this pandemic seriously as opposed to laughing at it, I think puts them off on a pretty good start. There are lots of potholes, as Mike and Nitasha know, something happens in the transition always, or in the first month, that takes your plans and throws them out the window. For Bill Clinton, it was don't ask, don't tell. And, you know, it was a month wasted on that. But I think these issues are so big and so profound, and then Biden and his team have the ability to manage them, that he may very well get off to a strong start. McConnell being the wild card. 


Harry Litman [00:32:52] Although McConnell, it seems to me he could shut down everything, executive branch appointments, et cetera. But I do think he's got to play ball and will play ball on the stimulus. Do you guys agree? 


Mike Murphy [00:33:03] He has his own politics, and first, this will shock kind of the people who've been kind of with the popcorn at home watching one of the cable channels rooting on their side, but privately, McConnell and Biden have a long and pretty good relationship. Biden's always been the one guy who could go cut a deal with McConnell, and he's played that role in the past. Now, the Repubs, win or lose Georgia will affect this, but it's going to be tight, and you're going to have a split in the Republican caucus. You're going to have young firebrands who want to go run for president, because they're all going to look at Kamala Harris and think - and all this early stuff is often proved wrong by events. 


But they're going to assume, okay, Biden's too old, she's going to - in four years, she'll be the nominee and we can beat her in a general election. She's too liberal, she's no Obama, we can take her. So the Republican nomination is incredibly valuable. We got to go Trump. So the, the Tom Cottons and the Josh Hollis, the young senators want that. They're going to do kind of a Trump-lite hybrid thing and race right for the caucus and primary voters. Then you're going to have the more pragmatic Republicans looking at hanging onto the majority by one damn seat, which is not an unlikely outcome here, thinking, you know, I don't want to go in the minority. I actually would like to get something done. 


And Biden can actually use that to put himself in the center, because if you get a few Romneys and Murkowskis and a Susan Collins, a few of them to be able to deal on some of this stuff, it gives Biden a way to hold off his progressives because he can say, look, I'd love to build the solar-powered Rickshaw factory but, you know, I'm never going to get that through the R's, but I can't get this infrastructure thing done for jobs, like I can do a little here and a little there. So it'll depend if McConnell really is going to break fingers to try to hold the caucus together in full opposition, or if Biden can peel a few people off with a more centrist thing, I actually think they will get a stimulus deal done because I've never met a politician of either party who ultimately doesn't like giving money to voters. 


But the Repubs are gonna - Joe is so right, they're going to have this awakening, 'Hey, wait!' And I would say as a conservative, it's damn long overdue because we are spending World War II money in real dollars on this. And there comes a time when the music does stop, but most of the economists say the sooner you do it, the less expensive damage you have to pay for it later. And I know from talking to some Repubs in the Senate that there is an understanding of that. So we'll see, I mean, Biden is a bit of a throwback in a good way. He is a politician in the real sense, which is somebody wheeling and dealing in closed doors to try to get weird personalities to one place in the LBJ style. He's not a modern brand politician. You know, he's not a performer. And so he may have the skill set to get modest things done. But as far as the big green revolution or the AOC agenda or Bernie's nineteen point plan, the Repubs are going to kill all that stuff. 


Natasha Bertrand [00:35:57] Yeah, and I think the notion that McConnell, there was a story about a week ago that McConnell was going to try to block any progressives that Joe Biden might try to nominate for Senate confirmed positions, I think that's kind of moot because, you know, the people that are surrounding Biden at the highest levels, his most senior advisers are not, you know, hard core progressives, people like Tony Blinken were always the front runners for positions like secretary of state and, y'know, perhaps CIA director. So this idea that McConnell is going to be a check on that kind of thing is kind of silly, frankly, because while Joe Biden will have to elevate certain people, I think, in the Progressive Party, I don't think that these cabinet positions are going to go to anyone that might be surprising, knowing Joe Biden's history and his politics. 


Harry Litman [00:36:41] Republicans in the cabinet, anyone? 


Natasha Bertrand [00:36:44] Sure. 


Mike Murphy [00:36:45] Eh, you know, maybe a semi-Republican. You know, I doubt it right now. I mean, the problem is somebody will say, Mitt Romney, you don't want to lose him in the Senate, because somebody new from Utah is going to be more hardcore. So, you know, I think but, you know, there's talk of Meg Whitman, people like that. But as far as an elected Republican politician coming over, you know, maybe Charlie Baker, the governor of Massachusetts, would like to - I'm guessing, I don't know .There's Larry Hogan, but I think Biden would like the optics of it, but he's going to be under all kinds of diversity pressure. He's got the Mayor Petes of the world and the Elizabeth Warrens. You know, a lot of people are going to want a lot of stuff, but I think Natasha's point is really good. The Biden inner circle is not the Politburo. They're kind of old school centered, business friendly Democrats. And I think - let's put it this way, they could appease the progressives by giving away some powerful cabinet, and the progressives will still be unhappy 90 days later if he hasn't jumped on the agenda. So I think, I think they're going to bring back Clinton triangulation, which is smart, and it works and it generally gets things done. 


Harry Litman [00:37:46] I mean, Biden himself, dating back to his college days, you know, has always positioned himself arm's length from, you know, more utopian, radical, whatever. Even as a kid, he was the, you know, there was that great profile recently in The New York Times with him as sort of Mr. Cardigan sweater on the Delaware campus. 


Joe Lockhart [00:38:05] Yeah, no, listen, a couple of points. One on that Harry, some of this is what Biden has chosen to concentrate on in his life. And up until he became vice president, more than anything, he dealt with foreign policy. You know, he chaired the Foreign Relations Committee, and that's not a hotbed of ideological partisanship, it certainly wasn't when he was there, maybe it is now. Second point, when you look at Biden's inner circle, it's you know, I used to say that Hillary's inner circle, I remember when Patti Solis was pushed aside and people said, you know, she needs fresh blood. Well, Patti had been with her for like 20 years, so she went to Maggie Williams, who'd been with her for 35 years. 


It's, it is the same with Biden's inner circle. I, I interviewed for a job in 1987 with him, and he offered me the job on his campaign as his press secretary, and before I could start he dropped out. All of the people that I interviewed in that process are still there. That's the same group of people, and there is continuity. And I think the last point is, when you look at McConnell, McConnell more than anything understands power. It has never been about a certain policy, and I think if he views, he's going to get backed into a corner by rebuffing the bipartisan president who's reaching out to him and trying to make a deal for him, you'll see what he did, you know, early in the Obama administration with things like the debt limit, where he came in and he made the deal because it was the best thing for his caucus, it was the best thing to keep power. 


Harry Litman [00:39:43] Well so backed into a corner vis a vis 2022? When there are several R's in cycle, or what's the sort of leverage that he wants to temporize? 


Joe Lockhart [00:39:52] I think that while Trump was dominating all of the news coverage, McConnell had the liberty to go out and be ruthless in putting in judicial nominees. With Trump no longer there, McConnell is now the leader of the party and he can't, for his caucus, be seen as Dr. No or the Grim Reaper. He could be the Grim Reaper when he wasn't the center of attention, but now he's the, he's the leader of the Republican Party, and I think the optics politicians that people that Mike mentioned, like Tom Cotton and Hollis, McConnell, is going to have to worry a little bit more about that than he has in the last four years. And Biden knows what buttons to push with him. So, you know, I wouldn't, I just wouldn't rule out that there's some chance of the old style triangulation that I used to have fun with. 


Mike Murphy [00:40:44] Yeah, I just want to hallelujah that, and point out the Repubs have a real call to make about the midterms. On one side, you can say the more Biden's a failure the first term, etc., etc., but the pollsters, to the extent they're allowed in the room anymore, all say look, the brand is terrible and the races that are up in the midterms are, it's tough. We could really blow our one seat or whatever we have or our dead even deal. I wrote a thing in the board back in August, which is kind of a website of opinion that in the never Trump world is worth following, that you can argue from Biden's point of view a one vote Republican bare, hanging on by their fingernails majority, gives them a little more room to maneuver and hold off his left than the Repubs in minority, where they got nothing to do but scratch and try to fight their way back in the midterms, give them something to lose. 


So anyway, and that'll be a fight in the caucus because the flame throwers are going to say no, total opposition. By the way, I'll be in New Hampshire tomorrow. While the others who are thinking about hanging on to control and the bad map the Senate GOP has in '22 are going to be like, 'hey, let's take away the attacks on us by doing some things. We can cut them half in size, but we need a story here.' And as Joe says, Mitch is about holding the majority, whatever the smarter move politically for the whole caucus will be, not for two guys who want to go beat Eric Trump in the South Carolina primary one day, Mitch will make that move. 


Joe Lockhart [00:42:08] And I think if you look back to the Clinton era and triangulation, we found it much easier to deal with a Republican with a split Congress, because Congress had a stake in it. The Republicans had a stake, they were, they could be seen as the people holding it up. When the Democrats were in control, the story was, why can't we get all the Democrats to sign on a piece of legislation? And, you know, let's say that Georgia wins. Democrats get both, a lot of the progressives are going to sit up and say, oh, we can do things like stack the court. Well, Joe Manchin needs to vote for stacking the court, and then that's a disaster for Biden to have 98 percent of his party for something and have the two percent, Joe, and I'm not picking on Joe Manchin, he's a sensible guy, but he's not going to be for it. And that's, that's going to make Biden look weak. What makes Biden look strong is standing up to McConnell, going around the country, using the power of the presidency to build support and put pressure on McConnell. That's the way triangulation works. 


Harry Litman [00:43:10] So what about foreign policy? You know, the Paris mayor tweets yesterday, welcome home, America. Trump did really serious damage to both our standing and our alliances in four years, is just Biden raising his hand enough to undo 90 percent of that, or and it is, as you said, his sort of prime focus and hobbyhorse, how tough is that job? 


Mike Murphy [00:43:38] Well, quickly, Biden can do a lot of that by himself. And the truth is, the establishment in the foreign policy world among R's and D's is happy with Biden than they'd ever be of Trump, who was a damager. So Biden can do a lot, and he will not get nearly the vociferous opposition that the domestic budget stuff [unintelligible]. So, but you're right. Then, of course, the Europeans, being shrewd, are going to enjoy this because they're going to say, oh, my so, you know, they're going to try to really extract a price to dig out of it. On the other hand, they're going to be delighted we're back to some normalcy. 


Natasha Bertrand [00:44:08] I agree. I think that, I honestly don't think it's going to be that much of an uphill battle to restore faith in these alliances, because Biden is so experienced in this area, right? I mean, he served as vice president for eight years, he has these relationships. You know, it may be tougher for him to relate to the kinds of leaders that the president was so good at relating to, so people like Putin, for example, that may be a little bit tough, but he has people around him who are deeply, deeply experienced, and this is the way that he's not only going to revamp the foreign policy infrastructure here, but also the intelligence community. He's going to hit the ground running and be able to do that because he's, he's not going to have people around him like Trump did when he first got into office that have no idea, frankly, what they're doing. I think it's going to be a return, at least for a bit, to status quo, and the people that have been congratulating him so far on Twitter are the world leaders. Many of them have said, you know, 'I've worked with you for four decades. I've known you for decades. I look forward to working with you again.' So it's going to be a very familiar thing for these allies, and I think because of that, it's going to be a lot easier for things to kind of shift back into normalcy. 


Mike Murphy [00:45:16] There will be Republican support for Biden to grind on Putin a bit, which is a point of connection and good politics for Biden. 


Harry Litman [00:45:23] Yeah, and, you know, Biden here really has a kind of surefootedness. I, I took Joe's point about him being the guy in the room who temporizes a little on the domestic side, but he really knows what he wants to do and feels like he knows the foreign policy world. So he'll be the actual leader of the free world again. All right, we just have a couple minutes for our final feature of Five Words or Fewer, where we take a question from a listener and each of us has to answer in five words or fewer. Today's question comes from Olivia Jessner, who asks, "What will success look like for Biden in terms of attacking the virus?"


Mike Murphy [00:46:04] Vaccine Spring, summer economic boom. 


Joe Lockhart [00:46:08] I think I would say: changing public behavior, saving lives. I think because, I think just getting people to wear the goddamn masks is the single most important thing you can do. So that's what I think. 


Natasha Bertrand [00:46:23] Yeah. Making masks cool again. 


Harry Litman [00:46:26] Well, OK, what I had is more general. I like your guys' but: curve flatten, then vaccine summer. 


Thank you very much to Mike, Joe and Natasha, and thank you very much, listeners, for tuning in to Talking Feds. If you like what you've heard, please tell a friend to subscribe to us on Apple Podcasts or wherever they get their podcasts, and please take a moment to rate and review this podcast. You can follow us on Twitter @TalkingFedsPod to find out about future episodes and other Feds-related content. You can check us out on the web, talkingfeds.com , where we have full episode transcripts, and you can look to see our latest offerings on Patreon, where we post discussions about special topics exclusively for supporters, as well as ad-free episodes. Submit your questions to questions@talkingfeds.com , whether it's for Five Words or Fewer, or general questions about the inner workings of the legal system for our Sidebar segments. Thanks for tuning in, and don't worry: as long as you need answers, the Feds will keep talking. 


Talking Feds is produced by Jennifer Bassett and Rebecca Lowe Patton. Our editor is Justin Wright. David Lieberman and Rosie Don Griffin are our contributing writers. Production assistance by Matt McArdle. Our consulting producer is Andrea Carla Michaels. Thanks very much to the great John Malkovich for explaining standards for murder prosecutions. And finally, our gratitude, as always, to the amazing Philip Glass, who graciously lets us use his music. Talking Feds is a production of Dalito, LLC. I'm Harry Litman, see you next time.


TALKING FEDS NOW: SCENARIOS

Harry Litman [00:00:07] Welcome to a special edition of Talking Feds Now, the day after the 2020 presidential election. I'm Harry Litman. Some things are pretty clear: the country remains polarized. The polls overestimated the possibility of a national rejection of President Trump, whose power and popularity remain substantial. Biden will win Michigan and Wisconsin, and the Wisconsin margin will be too large for Trump to overcome in a recount. Some things are murky, but emergent and clearly more likely than not. Biden will overtake Trump in Pennsylvania, Mitch McConnell will continue as majority leader with huge implications for what the government accomplishes in at least the next two years, and Joe Biden will be the next president of the United States. 


And some things are hopelessly opaque: what will the courts, especially the U.S. Supreme Court, do? Will Trump supporters accept the results? How and when will Donald Trump be forced to cede power as president? We remain in the pages of history, but the narrative is not what we expected, and it still has some important twists and turns to play out. 


Talking Feds is hugely fortunate to have three of the best people in the country to provide a clear eyed, sophisticated view of what has happened and what lies aheas. They are: 


Feds regular Matt Miller, a partner at strategic advisory firm Vianovo. Matt was the director of the Office of Public Affairs for the Department of Justice under Eric Holder, and he's also worked in leadership positions in both the U.S. House and Senate. Welcome as always, Matt. 


Matt Miller [00:02:16] Thanks for having me. 


Harry Litman [00:02:17] Melissa Murray, professor of law at NYU School of Law, co-director of the Birnbaum Women's Leadership Network and co-host of the Talking Feds podcast, Women at the Table. Melissa, thanks so much for joining. 


Melissa Murray [00:02:33] Thanks for having me. 


Harry Litman [00:02:35] And Norm Ornstein, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, co-host of A.I.S Election Watch, a contributing editor for the National Journal and The Atlantic, and perhaps the country's foremost political thinker about the Senate and the House. He has been named, in fact, one of the top 100 global thinkers for diagnosing America's political dysfunction, and there's much to diagnose today. Norm, thanks so much, as always, for joining us. 


Norm Ornstein [00:03:09] It's always good to be with you and God help us. 


Harry Litman [00:03:13] Why don't we start with the timeline? Things have clarified somewhat since last night. Michigan and Wisconsin have come into tolerable clarity. When do we see this playing out until? Do we see a possibility of this actually bumping up against the pertinent deadlines of December 8th or 14th, or does it seem pretty clear? Nothing's that clear, but is one thing that's pretty clear that this will not drag on the way Florida 2000 did? 


Matt Miller [00:03:47] Look, you never know. It seems to me that it's unlikely to take that long only because I think that Biden's lead is likely to be too big and too many states to get us into a Bush Gore situation. Hopefully, I'm not being naive here. I mean, if you look at it right now, he's at 253 electoral votes, and everyone that looks at the models in Pennsylvania short of the Trump campaign thinks that he's going to win that quite comfortably by 80,000 votes, maybe even 100,000 votes. That would put him over the top, and that's without winning Nevada and Arizona, both of which he leads in right now, or winning Georgia, where he may also overtake the president. So I think if we were looking at a situation where there was one state that put him over and maybe we will end up in that situation and, and this is the crucial thing you have the and, that state was so close that it was a margin that you could legitimately dispute in a recount or in court, a few hundred votes, maybe a thousand votes or even two thousand, then maybe you're in that kind of situation. But that's not where it looks like it's going to be right now in either Michigan, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, which right now seem to be the tipping point states.


Harry Litman [00:04:54] And I'll add a prerequisite here, because it seems to me you need not only those two factors that Matt just identified, but some kind of plausible legal claim that gets at a pivotal number of votes. It can't be the dog ate this one, and this, this signature was messy. It has to be an actual discrete -- for instance, Pennsylvania. We should talk about it separately, it seems plausible, but they have to be able to frame a claim in court that would give them standing to actually reverse the outcome of the election. 


Norm Ornstein [00:05:32] So, Harry, I want to introduce you to some of the Trump nominated and confirmed judges, and you may want to reconsider the idea of a plausible legal claim. That aside, I hope that Matt is right. And I think there is the good possibility here. It appears to me that the numbers in Wisconsin and Michigan are beyond any reasonable challenge through a recount, as he said. Pennsylvania, I just saw that David Wasserman, who's a really top analyst in all of this, thinks that the numbers are lining up for Biden to win there. 


If we're fortunate and there's a victory in Georgia, but that's where it could be by just a couple of thousand votes, and we're well over 270, then I think all of this stuff that Trump and his lawyers will try and throw out there isn't going to get very far. Maybe that will happen. The numbers are much closer in Nevada than I would like to see. And Arizona, the Republicans at least, are fairly confident that a lot of the votes that are yet to be counted are theirs. I'm less confident than that, but my nightmare scenario is that Biden is somewhere right around 270 and where the switch of one elector could throw us below the 270 or two or three. And what we know is that Trump will go to any lengths to try and keep this from going against him, that he has an army of lawyers that will do whatever they can, that he has state legislatures in places like Pennsylvania especially, that will be happy to intervene on his behalf. 


If it's too close, then the possibility of the Pennsylvania legislature, for example, saying we don't like the numbers, we don't trust them, we think the popular vote went to Trump, we're going to certify a Trump slate of electors. Governor Wolf saying this is outrageous and I'm going to sign the Biden slate of electors, but that goes to Congress and the House and Senate have to agree. And if they don't agree, then the House can choose a president, so that's one scenario. A second scenario is that they drag it out and you can find a million reasons for challenging ballots. And remember, we have at least four and possibly more Supreme Court justices who will say that if the Pennsylvania Supreme Court intervenes and says, no, it's over, we'll say you're not allowed to do that. There are too many nightmare scenarios here, so I'm very hopeful that Matt is right and that we will have a clear victory and that people will accept it. But I'm still nervous. 


Melissa Murray [00:08:18] I think that's actually the most interesting aspect of this. In 2000 with Bush v. Gore, regardless of how you felt about the outcome, I think everyone understood that once the Supreme Court rendered its decision and the election went to George W. Bush, everyone got on side. And I don't know that there is much of a possibility, given the nature of the electorate and how polarized it is at this point in time, that regardless of which way the Supreme Court went, if it got to the Supreme Court or if it got to the House of Representatives, if it was determined in some other way outside of the ordinary political process, I'm not sure that you would have the same acceptance of the outcome in the way that you did in 2000. 


Harry Litman [00:08:59] I mean, for starters, you will not have President Trump making the kind of statement, that patriotic statement ultimately that Al Gore made, saying that that's our system and how it works. Norm, to zero in on the two nightmares, so the first is 270 exactly and what, some kind of Hayes Tilden actually peeling off one of the 270 to take the other position?


Norm Ornstein [00:09:26] Yeah. And, you know, there are a number of states that have laws that automatically fire an elector who casts a vote for the wrong candidate and replaces that elector with somebody who does the right thing. But there are plenty of states that don't. And where the penalty, the Supreme Court, as we know, ruled on faithless electors very recently and said that states could keep them from acting that way. The problem is states where the penalty for being faithless is like a thousand dollar fine. Well, you think that will be covered? 


Harry Litman [00:10:04] He'll say he will, and then he'll stiff them. 


Norm Ornstein [00:10:07] He doesn't have Michael Cohen to write the check for him anymore, but somebody else could.


Harry Litman [00:10:12] But do they overlap with the, with the big states in play? 


Norm Ornstein [00:10:15] It doesn't matter where they're from, if anyone, anywhere does it. So that's a potential problem here. And just to, we don't need to go deep into the history with Hayes Tilden, Tilden won a clear majority of the popular vote, appeared to have won electors and 20 electors in the South, the legislatures basically fuzzed it up and created the controversy that had to be settled by Congress. They actually created a commission to try and deal with it, and the commission in the end by a partisan vote actually cut a deal, which is basically why we had Jim Crow, because the deal was that they let the Republican become president, but the Democrats could control the laws in the South. So this is not an analogy we want to bring to the present day. 


Harry Litman [00:11:09] The resemblance between where we are now and reconstruction seem more and more telling, but just to zero in. This, in fact, assuming Governor Wolf, as I think is a safe assumption, opposes what the Pennsylvania legislature tries to do, this nightmare gets resolved in the US House of Representatives, correct? 


Norm Ornstein [00:11:30] Yes. And in the House of Representatives, they vote, as the Constitution says, by state. It takes a majority of states, that means twenty six and we had some hopes going into this election that if we got a really good outcome and we still had issues that the twenty sixth state the Republicans now have, they have twenty six majorities might go away, that possibly Democrats could win the House seat in Montana or the Florida 15th Congressional District. Republicans have more than twenty six state delegations. 


Harry Litman [00:12:07] All right. So that's a fair enough nightmare, and so this is implicit in what you said, but to say the House decides doesn't mean that each representative casts a vote, but rather each delegation. All right, and now nightmare two had to do with just stringing this along, Bush v. Gore style, until it's really bumping up against the pertinent deadlines letting the, you know, some other actor try to play a pivotal role. Now, it sounds to me -- first I want to acknowledge what you're saying, which is this is if it's razor thin and you're not predicting exactly what you're pointing out how it could happen. But on this actually dragging us into December, because as I look at each state, I don't see it really happening that that way. I don't see they're going to have any purchase with trying to get a recount, for instance, in Wisconsin. And so I think each of the other states, you know, plays out within a week. But you're positing that then Republicans come in and start suing like crazy and that somehow is able to extend things as happened to Al Franken and Norm Coleman. 


Norm Ornstein [00:13:24] Yeah. And, you know, it actually takes us back again to Hayes Tilden because it was the aftermath of that that Congress passed the Electoral Count Act to try and create procedures to deal with a controversy of this sort. And that's what set these so-called safe harbor dates when the states have to certify their electors - this year, December 8th - and when the electors meet in their various states, which is December 14th. Recognizing that we could end up with a controversy, both the House and Senate had bipartisan bills introduced to extend these dates just in case. And in the Senate, it was Rob Portman and Dick Durbin. Mitch McConnell refused to bring the bill up, and I doubt they'll do anything now. And the danger is, as we saw happen with the Minnesota recount, it took until July with a much smaller number of votes under contest to resolve it because of court challenges finally resolved by the Minnesota Supreme Court. 


Norm Ornstein [00:14:23] You could see all kinds of smoke screens and issues raised about ballots, about provisional ballots, about ballots cast by mail that have been cured, as they say, where minor errors are able to be corrected by voters, or signature matches, which this Pennsylvania Supreme Court relaxed a little bit because we have many instances of votes unjustifiably being rejected because of what they say is a mismatch of signatures. You have a million ways in which you can try and push this and take it to different courts and appeal and then do minor additions to the appeals. That isn't going to happen if we're way over 270. But if it comes down to Pennsylvania, watch out. 


Harry Litman [00:15:06] All right. Well, so, Melissa, though, I mean, wouldn't you think any of these, they're going to require some action by courts to enter stays maybe even up immediately to the US Supreme Court in that the loser will keep pushing, pushing, pushing. So it's not enough to just be litigious, you're going to need some complicity by courts willing to actually hazard dragging the whole country over the relevant time line, yeah? 


Melissa Murray [00:15:33] Well, I think that's certainly true. Of course, at the Supreme Court, all you need 5 for the stay, and there certainly, I mean, you could imagine any combination of five willing to do that right now. I think the bigger question is, lots of cases will be filed, there's already a petition pending before the court in Pennsylvania, and again, that's sort of a follow on from last week when Justice Alito issued that statement saying that although the court was not going to expedite on the Pennsylvania ballots at this point in time, they were leaving the door open essentially to going back and reconsidering whether late arriving ballots could be counted. 


And that petition has arrived right on time. I think it really depends on where the action is on the electoral map. It may be the case that Pennsylvania is irrelevant if other states come in, and so I think that's part of it. And that certainly was not the case in 2000 when it really all did come down to Florida and in particular Palm Beach County. Here, we're playing on lots of different fields and lots of different states are in play, and one thing that is noteworthy about the Trump administration, or rather the Trump campaign strategy in all of this, is that it's remarkably inconsistent in what it's seeking, so in some cases it's 'stop counting, stopped counting,' and in other cases it's 'go back and recount' and there is no consistency to what they're asking for, and I think it's hard to get the court to sort of buy into a strategy that really does seem more opportunistic than principled. 


Matt Miller [00:16:59] I think that makes a lot of sense, and the point that Melissa started with, which to me seems the most important of all is, look, if Biden wins Pennsylvania and Arizona and Nevada, all of which he's ahead in now, except Pennsylvania, where he's expected to take the lead, you know, he's at 290 electoral votes, knocking Pennsylvania out doesn't flip the presidency, knocks you down to 270, and knocking out any one of the other states doesn't overturn the presidency, and that just seems then in a scenario where you're having to do this in two states at once, which to me seems to raise the bar so much higher, not just legally but politically as well. And it's important not to, I think, lose sight of the political angle here, as craven as Republicans have been during the Trump presidency, the signals we have gotten from Republican elected officials around the country so far in the last 24 hours has been that the votes need to be counted. There has been a noticeably different tone in what you're hearing from Republicans on Capitol Hill and the Trump campaign and the Trump White House. That could obviously change, but it's a little bit of a, it's a green shoot. 


Harry Litman [00:18:05] Yeah, I mean, this goes back to Norm's point, as what will happen if Trump really gets to his most ruthless and zeroes in on particular leaders to try to change their tune. But, yeah, it's been pretty noteworthy that they just can't stomach this idea that you won't count votes. OK, a late breaking report on the on the petition that has arrived is Donald Trump himself has moved to intervene in that case, which is pending at the court, and presumably the motion to intervene will be granted. That's one step on the Bush v. Gore path, we could have a Trump v. Biden. I'd like to focus in a little bit on two of the states, I mean, it does seem to me, as you said, that Michigan and Wisconsin are out of reach. It does seem that Georgia would be a real lucky break for Biden, but Nevada, Arizona and Pennsylvania seem worthy of some individual consideration. 


[00:19:06] Let's start with Arizona. I mean, Fox News early on called it for Biden. I believe that the AP also has, and they haven't, I don't believe they've repudiated those calls. So, you know, doesn't it look like they, you know, if you credit their kind of operations, that that's a pretty good harbinger for Vice President Biden? 


Matt Miller [00:19:32] It is, but Norm brought up the Minnesota Senate race, so I'll mention the Minnesota, the Al Franken Senate race, because I was at the DNC scene, did a lot of work on that race and was on the phone arguing with the Associated Press when they called the race for Norm Coleman on election night that they were wrong, which, of course, they were. The AP makes mistakes in these races. Look, I think he's likely to win Arizona, but there is a dispute about the vote that's still remaining to be uncounted. It's clear that it's from Maricopa County and it seems to be mostly Election Day vote from Maricopa County, and so is that vote going to break like the overall Maricopa County has broken or is it going to be predominantly Republican because it's Election Day voting, and how does that shake out? I - look, it seems like Biden's likely to win, but I, I wouldn't put it in the bank just yet. 


Harry Litman [00:20:15] That's a sobering tale, Minnesota. 


OK, and let me focus a little on my home state of Pennsylvania, because I have been zeroing in. So first of all, there are a remarkable number of votes that are just coming in, something like a quarter in Allegheny County, many in the bedroom communities. And if you do the math and make certain assumptions, those are big ifs, you do have Biden squeaking into something like 100,000 vote lead. And that, I think, tends to moot things because you only have the little bit of corrections that Norm talked about, which are pretty few. The worry is that when that plays out, Trump will maintain a very small lead because remember, as Alito said, in his opinion, the votes that are coming in today, tomorrow and Friday are going to be segregated. 


Now, they, too, figure to be 70-30 or so for Biden, and there look to be about 500,000 ballots sent out in question. Of course, number of those won't be in play, people decide not to vote, they voted anyway and so they'll be invalidated, they get them in after Friday. But if you think about half of them coming through and they're going the Biden way, that may well be enough to put him over the top, setting up a pristine issue that, as Norm says, four members of the court have already suggested they would take up, and who's going to bet on the latest justice not to? 


I just want to ask your guys' view on this, because there's a very big point to make here that wasn't the case in Florida. And adding one more point to what Matt says, psychologically, politically, it matters hugely here, as we learned in 2000, who's perceived as in the lead, who's lead is being toppled. And that was the ultimate frustration for Biden, is they could never get even a temporary lead so that the court would be dislodging. If it goes into the court with a slight lead for Biden based on those votes, even if the court finds their [unintelligible], excuse the expression, federal constitutional violation, they have to take the other step of ordering a remedy that so baldly disenfranchizes voters who did nothing wrong and have very strong reliance interest, did exactly what they were told to do. That, to me, begins to feel like Dred Scott territory. I mean, really, really, really infamous. Am I being overly sanguine, do you think? 


Norm Ornstein [00:23:53] I actually think that if Brown v. Board of Education came up tomorrow, it wouldn't be nine to nothing, it would be five-four, at least the wrong way, and maybe six-three. I could see John Roberts saying, hey, there's no discrimination anymore, the schools are fine. So I'm a little more concerned about that. I do think Matt has a very good point, that if Arizona, Nevada end up the way we expect and hope they will, and if Pennsylvania shows Biden with a lead, at that point, he's got 290 electoral votes. That's different than having 270, and it changes the psychology here. And whatever Trump tried to do, I think it would create a much larger barrier for other pernicious actors trying to intervene. But if the Pennsylvania result is for Biden, but by 7,000 votes, then we're in a very different territory because they will challenge every single ballot. 


In Michigan now, it appears to me that Biden is going to have a lead of like 100,000 before this is done. Nothing is going to happen there. I don't see anything happening in Wisconsin. Even 20,000 is just not going to be overturned by a recount and they don't have enough disputed ballots. That's where winning by enough of a margin in Pennsylvania would make a big difference as well. So this is critical now, and I would just say one thing to your larger point too, Harry, which is what I find so dispiriting and so discouraging with rulings by courts around the country and with the attitude of the Supreme Court, is that the sanctity of the vote, the idea that the vote is something important and sacred, is the cornerstone of our political system and of a democracy. 


They don't care about the idea that you'll take some phony excuse of voter fraud that might involve 12 people and use it to disenfranchise a hundred thousand or a million people, and that courts we have judges who will do that without a second thought is one of the most disturbing elements as we look to the future about where the country goes. And, you know, I keep coming back to the Shelby County decision, which I think. Was just so outrageous and that John Roberts basically said, hey, we don't have a problem anymore, and when all the evidence has emerged, including the day after the damn decision was Shelby County itself began to do race based discrimination again. And that he hasn't changed, tells us we're in for a long and difficult period over voting rights, whatever happens here. 


Melissa Murray [00:26:31] I want to interject and maybe offer a counterpoint. I think all of that was exactly right. On November 2nd, there did seem to be quite a bit of Republican fear about an engaged and excited electorate, in part because the fact of an engaged and excited electorate seemed to portend in the favor of the Democrats. But what we've seen is that, in fact, voting was at an all time high. Lots of people participated and it kind of broke evenly for both sides. So I wonder if going forward there will be less fear about getting people to the polls and the whole question of early voting, even though there may be, on the flip side, more of an interest in doing this post election kind of machination. 


Harry Litman [00:27:14] That's a pretty good segue to where I wanted to go. By the time people hear this, there may well be additional clarity with Arizona and Nevada, maybe even Georgia, and so you've heard our contingent predictions. But let's just take this step back and think of why we are here. Just as Melissa says, there was a sense, especially among Democrats and anticipation and excitement of a repudiation of the Trump tenure that we got to say didn't happen, right? The overall balance of proof is that we continue to be polarized a little bit less now, more Biden probably bet on the so-called blue wall coming back, but we're talking about really dispiriting levels of support for Trump throughout the country. What's your sense of first, why it happened, why the polls, again, were off not as dramatically, but again? And second, what is going on in the national mood? 


Melissa Murray [00:28:17] Well, I'll say this, Harry. I did a lot of work phone banking, and it was hard to get people to talk to you on the phone. And I imagine if pollsters are relying on that kind of face to face contact with the electorate, it's probably incredibly hard to poll right now. So there's that. People have ways of screening, they have ways of disengaging from that kind of thing, and that's one part of it. I also think we've seen over the last four years a discrediting of the media, of polls, of basically any kind of fourth estate institution that's meant to be a check on the government, and that translates into an electorate that doesn't want to hear what the media has to say, that doesn't want to hear criticism of their favorite candidate. 


And that may go in both directions. But I think it's especially pronounced on the side of the president and his supporters, and I think you saw that as well. But I don't know that it's all entirely gloom and doom. I mean, yes, some of these polls were really off, but some of it, I think was quite predictable in a way. Like if you take the Maine Senate race, for example, where Sarah Gideon was favored to win by a quite large margin over Susan Collins, and that just did not materialize. The scuttlebutt afterwards is that that was not a race that Mainers saw as coinciding with their interests. The outside money, the out-of-state money that poured in to support Sarah Gideon really seemed off to them. You had a lot of people who voted for Biden, but then check their ballot for Susan Collins. And because they thought that her values were more in keeping with Maine values. And in some sense, that's just basic retail politics. All politics is local, and that was a really kind of local sensibility getting deployed at the ballot. 


Norm Ornstein [00:30:00] So I've been around the polling world since my graduate school days in Michigan. There's a real crisis in the profession that's been around for some time. While we've been conducting this conversation, I ended up with two calls on my landline that were spam calls. When I was away for three days and I got back and there were 30 phone messages, 29 of which were just that. All of the polling, except for the Internet polling, which has its own issues, are done by phone. Many of them don't use cell phones because that's more expensive. The response rate is nine percent. If I get a call and it comes in and somebody says, I'm a pollster, I hang up, just as I do if they say congratulations, you've won an award, or I'm from the Social Security Administration, whatever it may be, it's no longer a science. It's an art, because with those low response rates, they are like chefs in a kitchen trying to put together the right combination of ingredients, this many men and women, this with education and so on. 


But with all of that, it's really disturbing when you think that at least in the past, the reputable, well done, reasonably expensive surveys that we know the national ones. If you aggregate and take the average, they've been pretty accurate at the national level. They're not accurate this time. They would have told us that Joe Biden would have won the popular vote by nine or 10 million, it's probably going to be more like four or five million. And so we've got a problem there, but I also think that what we saw with Hispanic votes in Florida and Texas and elsewhere, it's pretty clear that they are not able to get into the nuances of different kinds of voters in minority communities. The same, I think with young African-American men, we don't have the right people asking questions. They don't know the questions to ask, they don't get the right samples. And this is in some ways not just a wake up call for the polling community, I think it's a wake up call for the Democratic Party that they've missed out on some of those nuances themselves and maybe some of it because of the polling that's been done. But how can you rely on polls anymore when we see everything pointing in the direction of a very different election than the one we had? 


Harry Litman [00:32:09] And those were two cohorts that went surprisingly better for Trump than in 2016? 


Matt Miller [00:32:15] I think it's hard to know right now whether the problem in polling and it's obviously -- Norm's right, it's a crisis -- whether the problem is because of the way that the polling has changed, increasing number of people don't use landlines, it's harder to get people on the phone, more polls are done online, whether it is a technical problem that is leading to an undersampling of voters who support Trump and other Republicans, or if it's a problem caused by both that technical error and Republicans choosing not to participate in polls, because they think it's another elite institution they don't trust. It may be some mix of the two, but I don't think we know. We may not know for a while, but it's clear that we just can't trust polls at all anymore for the foreseeable future.  


To the bigger question about the president being stronger than we all expected, I think that's obviously true, I think it says a lot of things about the country, some of them very uncomfortable. I also think, though, it says things about Donald Trump, that I'll put all of us kind of in the category of what people would call elites, don't like to recognize that he is a much stronger candidate than we give him credit for. His sort of mix of bombast and arrogance, and faux machismo is something that's attractive to a lot of people. And I think it's attractive to not just white voters, but it's attractive to some Hispanic voters and some black voters. And I say that about his unique strength as a candidate, because I think that's key to answering the question about what happens when Donald Trump is gone and how long does Trumpism survive. I think clearly Trumpism is around for a long time, whether there are other candidates who can repeat his unique mix of characteristics I think is a harder question to answer. 


Melissa Murray [00:33:51] It's so funny that you say that, one of my earliest memories as a child is my father, who is African-American, setting the whole family down to watch the 60 minute interview with Donald Trump. I think this is just after The Art of the Deal was published and he really wanted to watch this interview. I think there is some appeal to that. The other thing, though, that I think is worth stating is that I think we all sort of fetishize Florida as some elusive prize that the Democrats can somehow win. I grew up in Florida, and I think we just need to put this on the shelf for a while, like Florida is not Democrat and it hasn't been for a long time. And I think people underestimate how kooky Florida is to their peril. I mean, Carl Hiaasen has made an entire career out of documenting how kooky Florida is. And it really is. 


It's at once parochial and cosmopolitan, it has all of these different kind of ethnic mixes that you don't see anywhere else. There is no state quite like that. Certainly. I live in California and I've lived in New York, there's nothing quite like Florida. And I think thinking the Democratic Party can win here really misses how complicated and complex the state is. And part of that is the Latino vote, which I think the media does a poor job of disaggregating. They portray it as a monolith, but it's really quite complicated, and you have to really distinguish between the concerns of newly arrived Central and South Americans from Caribbean Spanish speakers, from Cuban-Americans. And if you don't understand that complex stew that is Florida, you have no way of actually penetrating and making that state yours. 


Norm Ornstein [00:35:23] A couple of points, one on Florida. I just sort of sat kind of amused as I watched an, apropos of what Matt said about the machismo, that you have Venezuelan Americans basically voting for a right-wing Maduro and Cuban-Americans voting for a right-wing Castro, but it obviously works. The other thing is the really crushing disappointment for Democrats in Texas in the Rio Grande Valley. And there is another category, I think, of Hispanics, which is Mexican Americans who may have been there for one hundred years. They don't see themselves and the people from Guatemala trying to get across the border as kindred spirits, quite the opposite. And they do not view themselves as brown people in minorities in the country. And this is, it just demonstrates the complexity of dealing with communities and a part, I think, of our broader prejudice, that we tend to look at people with broad brushes instead of seeing the complexities of humanity. 


Harry Litman [00:36:22] I would apply that very point to the overall Trump strategy of rule, because I think one thing he does is take relative low status folks and give them reassurance that they're not the bottom of the barrel, give them people to hate and resent. 


Melissa Murray [00:36:39] But what Norm is making a different point. I mean, when you talk about Latinos in the Rio Grande Valley, those are individuals who will say we didn't cross the border, the border crossed us. We've been in the same place. I mean, this is sort of a wet foot, dry foot kind of understanding, and they don't they don't see themselves as low-information voters, they're elite, and they are in their communities. So, I mean, there's so much slicing and dicing that you can do in the Latino community and we haven't done it. Part of the reason why we haven't done it is that the media in large part and a lot of the pundit class is incredibly homogenous. And these kinds of takes don't necessarily flow naturally because that's not part of the experience of those who are commenting on the news of the day. But do you think Texas was a big loss, though, Matt? Because I actually saw Texas as a sort of bright spot. I mean, that Texas wasn't called immediately to me was a victory. 


Matt Miller [00:37:29] Yeah, look, that's my home state. I think ultimately the math just didn't add up nationally to bring Texas in play. If you think about 2016, Texas voted 11 points to the right of the nation. Trump won it by nine points while losing the overall popular vote by two points. It's clear that Texas has moved to the left since 2016. But if Biden is only going to win the national popular vote by three points, you know, Texas hasn't moved eight points to the left. You know, it's not it's not going to be a state that's in play. But clearly, no, it's clear that it has moved, and I think the question is going forward in Texas, number one, are the changes that Trump has brought in the suburbs around Dallas, around Houston and around Austin, where outside of the immediate core metro areas where you have white suburban Republicans who have always just voted straight ticket Republican. 


And a lot of them voted for Beto O'Rourke two years ago and a lot of them voted for Joe Biden yesterday. Are those permanent Democratic voters, are they people who are going to split their tickets? Are they in play or are they when Trump is gone, are they going to go back to voting for more traditional Republicans like Greg Abbott? That's the one question, and the second question is what happens with the Latino vote in Texas going forward? Because if you can kind of create the coalition that Beto created two years ago and Biden was on his way to creating before, I think the overall Trump vote just came out in the rural areas and some of the exurbs. You have a path for the state to be in play going forward. But that's based on political coalitions not changing further, and the thing we're learning is they're fluid and they move around all the time. 


Norm Ornstein [00:39:01] Do we have any sense, Matt, about whether the Texas House came close to flipping because that was a critical element for redistricting, and the fact that it didn't means that this is another area where Democrats are going to have an uphill battle down the road. 


Matt Miller [00:39:15] Yeah, not, we needed to pick up nine seats to flip the Texas House, and not only did we not pick up nine, we didn't pick up any, so. 


Harry Litman [00:39:20] All right, why don't we spend a little bit of time looking at the most consequential aspect of this division, which is the distinct possibility that Biden, even if he wins, will be looking at Senate majority, hello again, Mitch McConnell. Thoughts on A: how that shaking out, and B: its implications for, let's stick with the Biden governance. And by the way, let me just report, even as we've been on the line, something we've all pretty well predicted, but it's now been formalized that Biden is the winner in Michigan. So going forward, the possible Senate split with the White House?


Norm Ornstein [00:40:00] Well, let me take a crack at it, since I'm high up on Mitch McConnell's enemies list and have been for a long time. Listeners can Google my name and and you'll see a video of him attacking me ruthlessly, which I view as a badge of honor. 


Harry Litman [00:40:13] I mean, he broke the Senate, but now it's broken. 


Norm Ornstein [00:40:16] It's going to be very difficult. And despite Joe Biden believing that if he won, there would be an epiphany and a large number of Senate Republicans would want to work with him. You could look at three -- Mitt Romney, Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins -- who will be open to doing some things. But I remember back in 2009 when we had the urgent need to do an economic stimulus and recovery package, the only hope of breaking the filibuster there was getting three Republicans, Susan Collins, Olympia Snowe and Arlen Specter, and they did cut a deal, but the deal watered it down terribly, took out many things that would have been stimulus. And among other things, I remember Susan Collins insisting that there shouldn't be a penny for school construction money, because the federal government doesn't do school construction, which happens to be completely false. But that was a part of the deal. 


I don't see any other Republicans going along, what I think will happen is that McConnell will not allow any judges if there are vacancies to be confirmed, that will be true if Steve Breyer ends up leaving a vacancy in the Supreme Court over the next four years. But also, he will wreak havoc with many of the executive nominations. Certainly, you're not going to see Democrats leaving the Senate to go into a Biden administration. But my guess is he will block anybody trying to move to, say, the Consumer Protection, Financial Protection Bureau. He will not let somebody be treasury secretary who might do things that would actually crack down on chicanery and financial institutions. There are going to be real problems ahead. I do see the possibility of an infrastructure package, a COVID recovery package. But I think there's something else we also have to keep in the back of our minds. Oh, by the way, I also see Ron Johnson and others trying to do, continue investigations into Hunter Biden. 


It'll be Benghazi all over again. I also worry that because his main course of action, if he's president, for Biden will be executive actions, that we have a Supreme Court that's going to be ready to blow up chevron and basically curtail executive agencies from doing anything. Climate change is going to be taking a backseat as a consequence, and I think you've got five justices who will want to bring back Lochner and greatly curtail the ability of the federal government to do much of anything. So the challenges are going to be deep with a Republican majority on the court. 


Harry Litman [00:42:39] Yeah that one-two punch of McConnell, who, among other things, can just control what comes up, period, and the courts. Holy cow. That's a great point I hadn't thought of is even the executive order path is going to be blocked at many turns. That was already a kind of hobby horse of the new right cabinet in particular, kind of cutting back on the power of executive agencies. 


Norm Ornstein [00:43:04] And Gorsuch, you know, a Democratic Senate would have been able to basically at least hold the threat of enlarging the courts or taking away jurisdiction to keep some boundaries there, but it's gone. 


Harry Litman [00:43:14] All that's gone now, right? Court packing, any of that. It's done done done. And you actually see that I mean, he has shown himself to be completely brazen and shameless. It could well be that literally there is zero judicial appointments. You see, that is as a concrete possibility? 


Norm Ornstein [00:43:31] Yes, I do. 


Harry Litman [00:43:32] Matt, you're shaking your head. 


Matt Miller [00:43:33] Yeah, look, I mean, Norm is exactly what my thoughts were. I mean, all the big progressive legislation that you might want on climate change, on immigration, all completely off the table. There may be things that Biden can work with McConnell on, they do have a personal relationship that counts for something, but it is things like a COVID bill, it's not big progressive legislation. It's things like funding the government and keeping the government running year after year. As a policy, a serious policy agenda, the Biden administration is somewhat crippled from day one because of what can happen in the courts. The one ray of hope and it is a, it is a narrow ray, is that the fight for the Senate isn't quite over yet. 


Harry Litman [00:44:11] Yeah, let's talk about it. 


Matt Miller [00:44:13] It looks like Gary Peters is going to pull it out. He's been running consistently about a point behind Biden. It looks like Biden's going to win Michigan by more than a point. And that'll pull Peters over the line, which means we need two more seats. One of the Georgia seats is in a runoff right now. The other one, the one held by David Perdue, he is still above the threshold of 50 percent. But it looks like he he'll probably come just below it and throw that seat into a runoff, which means on January 5th, you could have two runoffs in Georgia that will determine control of the United States Senate. And if you want to talk about a battle, a national battle, those have typically favored Republicans, but, you know, in this type of environment, who knows? Donald Trump will still be president, still in January still antagonizing Democrats. I wouldn't say hope is lost just yet. It's a good time to own a TV station in Atlanta. 


Harry Litman [00:45:04] Just doubling back, what do you, I mean, we've all sort of seen things trending for Biden, do you ever see Trump doing an Al Gore? I mean, if in fact scenarios that other than his don't come about, is it going to come down to his being dragged out by marshals on the 20th of January? 


Norm Ornstein [00:45:22] Who knows? But no Al Gore, not a chance. 


Melissa Murray [00:45:26] I've been saying since 2018 that the Senate was all the marbles, and even if the Democrats lost the White House, if they had the Senate, they would have more room to maneuver. I think it was the more important race than the presidency. If you had the Senate, you had an opportunity, I think, to check excesses of executive authority, excesses of legislative authority, whether it was from the House when the House was Republican controlled, now, I think it's more likely you could do more progressive things. But most importantly, with the judges, if you had a Democratic Senate, you could force a Republican president to put up more moderate nominees. The reason why the courts are captured right now, and why they have skewed so far to the right is because there is no way to check the president and he can put up as many extremists as he likes and there's no check on it. 


Harry Litman [00:46:18] There's worse, it's politically advantageous to him to do to put up these extremists now. 


Melissa Murray [00:46:23] Well, I think right now for Biden, even if you were to get Mitch McConnell to take hearings on potential judicial nominees, if there were vacancies to be filled, you're putting up more moderate. So it's going to be the kind of judges I think you saw during the last part of the Obama administration, a more Merrick Garland type judge. To the extent progressives harbored some dream of maybe recalibrating the judiciary just in sort of stocking the lower courts with more progressive people, civil rights lawyers, public defenders. You're not going to see that. It's going to be more of the prosecutorial model, more of the big firm partner model, because you're going to need some people crossing the aisle in order to get these people appointed if they're even able to get up for a hearing. 


Harry Litman [00:47:07] Yeah, if there are any. And just to add to the point, McConnell not only wants to stop the music and all these ways, he'll have a political goal of making Biden be a one term president, yes? 


Matt Miller [00:47:17] He was pretty clear about that with President Obama. No reason to think he's changed since then. 


Melissa Murray [00:47:22] I do think it presents an opportunity to start looking toward the next midterm instead of, I mean, get in front of this. Start thinking about who you're going to run, do whatever postmortem you need to do on all of these Senate races and what surprises you learn from the polling and whatnot, and think about who are the candidates who are going to appeal. It's obvious that what we thought was appealing obviously hasn't worked, and we need to kind of recalibrate and rethink that model. 


Harry Litman [00:47:49] God, I'm exhausted. Does anybody know in 2022 who's in cycle? 


Norm Ornstein [00:47:54] There are a number of Republicans, Republicans are actually more vulnerable in 2022 than Democrats. Once again, there will be many more of them up. People like Rob Portman are going to have a challenge. The challenge, we face a double challenge, though, looking at this in the short run and even over the longer run. What we saw with this election is how powerful tribalism is. You had people voting Republican as much because they didn't want these evil people on the other side to win as because of their embrace of their own people, that a Joni Ernst could go on a debate and not know the price of commodities and still win handily tells you that. And of course, what we saw was more straight ticket voting than we imagined, and we thought that might be the case and that would help Biden because Republicans were going to vote for him, but instead it helped Republicans. And I worry about that even in 2022 in a state like Ohio. 


But the second challenge is, and I'll repeat something I think I used in one of our earlier conversations, by 2040, 70 percent of Americans are going to live in 15 states. And that means that 30 percent of Americans will elect 70 of the United States senators, and they are not representative of the diversity of the country or the economic dynamism of the country. And we're going to see an increasing level of a sense of illegitimacy from the majority in the country that votes don't matter. And getting people to vote in 2022 after everybody went to these enormous lengths with great enthusiasm to bring about a change, and it didn't happen. Getting enthusiasm up for a midterm is always difficult. Barack Obama could certainly tell you that. So could Bill Clinton. The challenge for Democrats is going to be in a demoralized setting because they've been thwarted in every fashion, or for independence that you've got to bring about this change. And we can only hope in some senses that Mitch McConnell overplays his hand, creates a backlash, but this is tough. 


Melissa Murray [00:49:47] It's tough because of the messaging. We've never been great at making the case for why courts matter. And if you can't say why courts matter, you can't then explain why the Senate matters. And so I think part of this is a dual messaging question. You have to talk about all this. I think about the Democratic convention, where they talked about all of these policy victories, the Violence Against Women Act, the ACA, but no one talked about how the Violence Against Women Act, an enormous portion of it, was gutted by a five-four majority of the court, and the ACA was literally in the hands of the court in this upcoming term. We can't talk about policy and Congress and the Senate without relating it to the court, and we have to make the court matter and the lower courts matter to the general electorate as well. 


Harry Litman [00:50:32] So it seems like the craziness continues. Something we really didn't expect was that on the one hand, Biden would win, as seems increasingly likely, but that the polarization of the country would continue and he would have a nearly paralyzed government. All that said, if that's what we've inherited, I don't want to bury the headline if Donald J. Trump the impeached, discredited worst president in our history is a one term president, well, god bless that gift from the American electorate and these other problems, substantial though they are, we will put one foot in front of the other on. But the big headline is the ouster of the tyrant from the White House. 


Matt Miller [00:51:26] Here, here. 


Norm Ornstein [00:51:27] So the appropriate analogy is, congratulations, you're not going to die. We just have to amputate all four of your limbs. 


Harry Litman [00:51:42] Thank you very much to Matt, Melissa and Norm, particularly for reporting for duty on such short notice. And thank you very much, listeners, for tuning in to Talking Feds. If you like what you've heard, please tell a friend to subscribe to us on Apple Podcasts or wherever they get their podcasts, and please take a moment to rate and review this podcast. You can follow us on Twitter @TalkingFedsPod to find out about future episodes and other fads related content. You can check us out on the web, talkingfeds.com , we have full episode transcripts. And you can look to see our latest offerings on Patreon, where we post discussions about special topics exclusively for supporters. Submit your questions to questions@talkingfeds.com, whether it's for Five Words or Fewer, or general questions about the inner workings of the legal system for our Sidebar segments. Thanks for tuning in, and don't worry: as long as you need answers, the Feds will keep talking. 


Talking Feds is produced by Jennifer Bassett and Rebecca Lowe Patton. Our editor is Justin Wright. David Lieberman and Rosie Don Griffin are our contributing writers. Production assistance by Matt McArdle. Our consulting producer is Andrea Carla Michaels. Our gratitude, as always, to the amazing Philip Glass, who graciously lets us use his music. Talking Feds is a production of Dalito, LLC. I'm Harry Littman, see ya next time.


AND YET THEY PERSISTED

Harry Litman [00:00:07] Welcome to Talking Feds, a roundtable that brings together prominent former federal officials and special guests for a dynamic discussion of the most important political and legal topics of the day. I'm Harry Litman. How long has it been since this country was sane? Since our politics were anywhere in the realm of normal? Since it didn't seem as if the democracy and government institutions were under existential threat? We come, exhausted and nervous, to some sort of finish line, anxiously awaiting our fate. Are we to awaken from the fever dream of the last four years? Or are we to try to come to grips with the reelection of the most corrupt and least public-spirited man ever to occupy the White House? 


President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden made their closing arguments to the country this week. Trump told his followers that the country was rounding the corner on the virus and that the election was a choice between a Trump boom and a Biden lockdown. Biden kept to a more limited schedule, he promised to heal divisions, he invoked the memory of FDR, and he called the election a battle for the soul of the nation. Two hefty numbers bracket the election homestretch: First, more than 80 million people already have voted, that compared with the 47 million votes that came before Election Day in 2016. And second, last week the country had a record high of over 500,000 new virus cases. That's as many in a week as the country logged in the first three months of the virus. Yesterday alone, we logged a new daily high of ninety thousand new cases. 


Meanwhile, Amy Coney Barrett is now a Supreme Court justice, her confirmation was rushed through barely five weeks after the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg in the first completely partisan vote in the Senate in 150 years. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell waxed triumphant about the cementing of a hard right conservative majority for possibly decades, crowing, 'they won't be able to do much about this for a long time to come.' And as Barrett moved into Ginsburg's old chambers, her four hardcore new colleagues took action in election related litigation that suggested they were all too ready to insert themselves into the election on Trump's behalf. All of which makes the view ahead even murkier and more foreboding. Fortunately, we have today a phenomenal group of powerhouse officials and former Feds, bona fide Feds all, former federal prosecutors all, to help break things down. We feel generally very lucky with the great guests we have on this podcast week in and week out, but today, I got to say our cup runneth over. 


We're very pleased to welcome first: Kristen Clarke. Kristen is the president and executive director of the National Lawyers Committee for Civil Rights under Law. She formerly served as the head of the Civil Rights Bureau for the New York State Attorney General. She worked in the NAACP Legal Defense and Educational Fund and she was a prosecutor in the DOJ Civil Rights Division. Welcome, Kristin. 


Kristen Clarke [00:03:31] Thank you. 


Harry Litman [00:03:32] Next, Congress member Adam Schiff in his tenth term as members serving the Twenty Eighth District of California. He is the chair of the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence and was one of five Democrats on the House Select Committee on Benghazi and the lead manager in the presentation to the Senate of the impeachment case against President Trump. Previously, he was the youngest member of the California state Senate, and before then, a storied assistant United States attorney in Los Angeles. Thank you very much, Congressman Schiff, for returning to Talking Feds. 


Adam Schiff [00:04:06] Thank you, Harry. 


Harry Litman [00:04:06] And finally, for the first time on Talking Feds Senator Sheldon Whitehouse. Senator Whitehouse is the junior United States senator from Rhode Island since 2007. He served as the United States attorney in the district of Rhode Island from 1993 to 1998 and as the seventy first attorney general of Rhode Island from 1999 to 2003 before being elected to the Senate, where he serves on the Finance Committee, Judiciary Committee, as we all saw in the recent nomination, the Environment and Public Works Committee and the Budget Committee. Senator Whitehouse, thank you so much for being here. 


Sheldon Whitehouse [00:04:44] And I'm also on the Adam Schiff Fan Club Committee. 


Harry Litman [00:04:46] Well, that's that's a very big committee now. I want, I thought there were gonna be buttons for that. What happened to the buttons? 


Adam Schiff [00:04:53] Well, Sheldon just doubled our membership right there. 


Harry Litman [00:04:57] All right. Let's start with the closing arguments from the president and Vice President Biden and maybe, maybe beginning with President Trump. You know, the very last debate suggested a return to some kind of discipline, but that was short lived. He's now on the campaign trail and his scattershot sort of vicious form, talking about the socialist hellhole that Biden would bring and purposely mispronouncing Kamala Harris's name. It certainly doesn't seem a sound strategy for recapturing suburban women. Can he not help it? Is he just a glutton for the base's praise so much that he has to go into this mode? Is there any method to the madness there? 


Sheldon Whitehouse [00:05:41] I would say that it's he thinks it's all about him. He got there by breaking every convention and every expectation and everything that he was told he should and should not do. And now he's frightened and he's anxious and he's going back to his core, which is the narcissistic, angry, bullying, suspicious lying self that is his core persona. He's kind of retreated to the core of himself. And it's not pretty. 


Harry Litman [00:06:05] Yeah, and it is very interesting. I think he has made a few comments that suggest he knows he's losing. Something he normally with his braggadocio, doesn't let himself do. 


Sheldon Whitehouse [00:06:14] Yeah, I don't think he means I meant that comment does a psychological observation. I'm not saying that that's politically astute. 


Adam Schiff [00:06:21] You know, I would have to agree. I think that he's never made an effort to reach out beyond his base. When he ran four years ago, people told him that his strategy was a losing strategy. He proved them wrong, and there's nothing worse than proving a megalomaniac right. And ever since, I think he's just kept to that same strategy of appealing to his base. He can't help but express the enormous sense of aggrievement that he has. He's the world's biggest victim, everyone is so unfair to him, and that kind of grievance runs through, has run through his presidency, it's not surprising it runs through his closing argument. But, Harry, you left out the most important appeal that he made in that very cherished space of the last few days, is appeal to the country that they should vote for him, because apparently I have a watermelon shaped head. That has been a constant refrain of his as every rally, which for those that are against watermelon heads, it's a pretty powerful appeal. 


Harry Litman [00:07:17] He has locked up the anti-watermelon vote I think with that, right? That's another five votes right there. But of course, they're all in California, so it doesn't matter. Kristen, your thoughts? Is there a strategy there or he's just in some kind of limbic mode, you know, going out as he came in, sort of fulminating? 


Kristen Clarke [00:07:35] I'm thinking very deeply right now about the Supreme Court. My role here has been fighting voter suppression tooth and nail to make sure we've got a level playing field so every voter can have their voice heard. And our organization fights tooth and nail against so many of the voter suppression efforts that we've been up against. It has been deeply frustrating to arrive at a point where we see the Supreme Court, some members of the court, clearly trying to position themselves as players that will decide the outcome of this election, should there be any election related disputes that land at the court's doorstep. So, this makes clear that we are on the brink of democratic crisis if the Supreme Court next week goes sideways and does anything to silence the will of the people and to distort the outcome of this election, to me, that really is a clear signal that we are, we are not on the brink of crisis... 


Harry Litman [00:08:34] We've lost, we've gone over the cliff, yeah. And we are going to talk about that at greater length. It was a hell of a week for those kinds of signs. I do want to stay with just the kind of closing arguments that each has made. And back to Trump, I think he'd been hoping for, counting for some kind of maybe October surprise, and truth be told, besides his own kind of unappealing persona, he's had kind of a bad month news-wise. I mean, he seemed like the luckiest candidate on Earth when he first ran, including just garnering all this kind of attention. But the campaign strands the people in Nebraska, they fold up shop with the Durham investigation of the Hunter Biden laptop or whatever it is, kind of vaporizes. I mean he's, he's going down to the finish line with not much breaking in his favor. Is that your sense, Congressman and Senator? 


Adam Schiff [00:09:34] Yeah, I you know, I think that he believes that as the president of the United States, the Justice Department exists to do his will, to protect people who lie on his behalf, and even more pernicious to be used as a sword to go after his enemies list. And he's deeply frustrated that even Bill Barr, as craven as he is, has a certain limit, or if he doesn't have a limit, he can't get John Durham to go beyond Durham's limit. Or maybe if Durham was inclined to, he had a senior prosecutor resign from his team and that may have deterred him. And you can see the president fulminating about why isn't the Department of Justice like it's his private law firm, of course he's treated it that way, why isn't it intervening to help him out in this election? You do see, in the intelligence world, that where Trump couldn't get Barr to do something or couldn't get Durham to do something, they've now turned to a lower common denominator in John Ratcliffe to do it. And so Ratcliffe has been selectively declassifying information on the eve of the presidential or vice presidential debates in order to help the boss. 


Harry Litman [00:10:38] Including information that's been discredited by the intelligence community, right. 


Adam Schiff [00:10:42] Not only discredited, but that poses a real risk to our sources and methods. And I mean, by the director's own admission, part of what he declassified was either exaggerated or could be completely false. But yet it came from very sensitive sources and methods, he acknowledged. So why would you risk compromising those sources and methods? Well, you would do it if you believe you exist to do the president's political dirty work. And so there is, I think, a frustration that more are not willing to do what some, like Ratcliffe, have been willing to do. But, you know, it's, it's, again, very anti-democratic, autocratic kind of inclination, and now, speaking of the  Supreme Court, the tweet today that, you know, sorta was an echo of his complaint about Barr: 'Barr can go down as this great attorney general if only he'll...' 


Harry Litman [00:11:31] He could have been somebody if only, right. Barr has been very quiet this last month, hasn't he? 


Adam Schiff [00:11:36] He has. But you know, that tweet today, the analogous tweet pointed at the Supreme Court, which is basically, if you don't decide this election in my favor, then you'll get what you deserve. It just takes your breath away. 


Harry Litman [00:11:48] All right. Let's talk briefly about Biden and then we can, I want to move both to the court and to the prospects of post-election bedlam. You know, Biden, it strikes me as had a kind of a straddle of sorts where he is wanted, on the one hand, to be rhetorically above the fray, a healer invoking FDR, but he has to really be prosecuting Trump, especially for the virus. And he is talking about the dark winter that's coming and the like. Do you think he sort of straddled that balance adroitly? 


Sheldon Whitehouse [00:12:28] I think he has. I think largely based on Trump's personal behavior, I think there's a really strong current running in this country in favor of decency, and people who are normal and not abusive again, and I think Biden has sailed into that current very effectively and kept himself in it in a way that he hasn't had to really point to it. But positioned himself, I think really really well, and I love the new advertisement that shows a voting ballot circle that you're supposed to fill in. And it's talking. It's like a mouth that is moving and it's got Trump saying his usual ridiculous stuff. 


And as the pen fills it in, the voice gets quieter and quieter and quieter until it's silenced. And I think there's that kind of deep feeling underneath all the issues, underneath all the organizing that we want to get back to decency and normalness, and that Biden is going to be the embodiment of that reliable, kindly, avuncular, good guy that everybody knows and can trust. 


Adam Schiff [00:13:33] I just completely agree. I think that Biden has had to make the case, which is a, it should be a self evident one, but these days nothing is self evident anymore, that you can't divorce the economy from the pandemic, that we won't fully recover until we recover from the pandemic, and that the president has been utterly negligent, has committed the worst kind of malfeasance and malpractice when it's come to the health of the American people. And that as a result, we've lost 225,000 of our fellow citizens. And we need to attack that problem in order to bring our economy back. And I think that connection between the pandemic and economy is one that he needed to keep making, and we still need to keep making so that, you know, we don't allow the president to draw some false separation between the two when they're intertwined. But more than that, as Sheldon was saying, there is a real pent up hunger for a return to basic decency. You know, Americans want to feel good about themselves, they're exhausted by all the bitterness and division, all the hate that comes out of the Oval Office and his talking heads on FOX. So I think that both of those things are really powerful, the need to have a smart, science- based strategy to the pandemic, the need to bring back our economy and help families that are suffering. But at the same time, an overarching need to bring back basic decency. 


Harry Litman [00:14:55] It struck me in the third debate that he's basically, he has turned that corner. He stopped trying to prove that he was decent and he just basically went. Guys, here's me. You've known me forever. Here's Trump, nuff said. One final question here is, you know, once burned, twice shy. But you have mentioned things that are strong for Biden and, and challenges for Trump. How do you see this as different from 2016, when there was a sense going in that Hillary Clinton was likely going to be the next president and everyone had, everyone who supported it or had that really bitter surprise? It does feel different, does it not? Or how do you see this is different from the final days of 2016? 


Sheldon Whitehouse [00:15:41] I'm just holding my breath and hoping that it is different. 


Adam Schiff [00:15:44] What I perceive as different is I remember in 2016, looking at the trend lines. You had Clinton consistently polling above Trump, but as we got closer to the election, about two months out, you started to see the Clinton line going down and the Trump line going up. And I remember thinking to myself, well, I hope to hell we had the election before those two lines cross and the election was right around when those two lines crossed. The trend this, in this election has been stubbornly the same for really nine months. And when you look at the last nine weeks, it really hasn't budged, and that has been a consistent advantage for Joe Biden. Now in the states where it really matters, the battleground states, that trend has been the same, but it's been, been a very narrow margin of a benefit for Joe Biden. So it's certainly more than possible that Trump could pull it out. I don't want to suggest otherwise, but I would so much rather be where we are than where they are. And I say that, you know, with the vivid sensation of having had my hand on the stove four years ago, but I am finally allowing myself to feel pretty optimistic about Tuesday. 


Harry Litman [00:16:49] He is expanding the playing field. He's in Texas, Georgia, et cetera. 


Adam Schiff [00:16:53] Yeah. The one thing I do want to add, just to underscore what Kristen was saying earlier, which is one big variable here, is whether the courts will be successfully utilized to disenfranchize hundreds of thousands of people in key states. I mean, the idea that you would have ballots in Pennsylvania, for example, where you can easily ascertain the voter's intent, because they filled out the circle, they want to vote for Joe Biden, but because they didn't put it in a sleeve, we're going to say no, we're not going to count that. And innumerable other variations of that, where people through no fault of their own, they mail their ballot on time, but the Postal Service doesn't deliver on time and those matters get litigated. There is, in a close election, there is certainly the prospect that that could be determinative in the most strikingly anti-democratic fashion, and that, I have the same terror about that that Kristen does, because that would be absolutely devastating to our democracy. 


Kristen Clarke [00:17:46] I just want to add one other layer to this part of the conversation that the obvious thing that is very different about this moment vis a vis 2016, is that we're a nation divided and intensely racially polarized. And this election is one being conducted under circumstances where we have unchecked white supremacy, and we're seeing it with a lot of the militia activity. And this is racial violence fueled by rhetoric that we've seen at the highest levels of our government, but what I think it's had is actually the opposite effect intended. I think that we're seeing, in many parts of our country, black voters and voters of color who are highly motivated to go out and participate and have their voice heard despite efforts to silence and disenfranchize them and suppress them. And despite the racially polarized moment that we're in. 


Adam Schiff [00:18:38] You can tell the optimists from the pessimists when you look at those massive lines of people voting. 


Harry Litman [00:18:44] God bless them. It's scandalous. 


Adam Schiff [00:18:46] It is absolutely scandalous that they should have to wait that long, that in some places there's only one place to vote and they've closed down polling places in predominantly minority neighborhoods. It's scandalous, and yet, on the optimistic side, people are persevering. They are determined not to be disenfranchized, and in that, you know, you can see a lot of room for hope. 


Sheldon Whitehouse [00:19:09] And yet they persisted, as Senator Warren would say. 


Harry Litman [00:19:13] And yet they persisted. I think there's a big appetite here to talk about the possible scenarios, the nightmarish and otherwise post-election. I did want to just stop briefly on, you know, this week we got a new justice of the Supreme Court in record time. She was taken office barely five weeks after her predecessor, Ruth Ginsburg, died. It was a very weird confirmation because it was the most polarized, in a sense, in 150 years. It was the first time that a candidate got not even a single vote from the other side, and yet it was sort of drained of drama because the partisanship was so baked in from the start, you knew it was going to happen. As you see it now, let me direct this to the senator, in fact. There was nothing to do on the one hand, but did the Dems do enough, or what they should have, or would you have changed the game plan at all with the hand you were dealt? 


Sheldon Whitehouse [00:20:16] I think once you had this nominee, the outcome was foreordained and there was very little to do on the Senate floor that would change that, given that this is the top priority for the big donors of the Republican Party. So everybody feels like a school of fish in the same direction as the big donors point on the Republican side, they do it virtually instantly, if they have to reverse the position that they took in the last nomination, they reverse it. If they have to reverse the position that they took three days earlier, they reverse it. You can watch them behave in this very peculiar way and you know what's going on. What I fault us for is not having paid attention to this years ago. The Republican big donor elite has played a long game to pack the court, and we have slept through that. We didn't notice. 


Nobody talked about cases like Epic Systems, which were really significant in terms of going after some of the structural stuff that gives corporations advantage. We've done nothing to expose the dark money that funds the campaigns for these judges, that funds the Federalist Society when it's selecting these judges. We were asleep at the wheel for a long time with all of that, and we let them get to now 80 partisan decisions at the court, five to four partisan decisions in which there was a big Republican donor interest involved and they ran up a score of 80 to zero. I mean, how many times do you have to not see that pattern? So it's been very, very frustrating for several of us who have been worried about this for a long time. But if there is one good thing that has come out of this, I think that the violence of the procedural nonsense that the Republicans pulled to shove Judge Barrett onto the court on top of Kavanaugh, on top of Gorsuch, that trifecta, I think, has left a lasting impression on America, and it certainly left a lasting impression on our party. And now we have to be as deliberate about exposing the dark money, about going after these patterns, about shaming the court based on its misbehavior, just as aggressively as they went to capture and control the court. 


Harry Litman [00:22:21] But what about that? It does feel right now as if this was a kind of different, or sort of cumulative kick in the teeth that really has the party thinking very seriously about kind of extreme countermoves. 


Sheldon Whitehouse [00:22:38] There's no doubt about it. There's no doubt about it. I can't speak for the House, but the Senate Judiciary Committee is absolutely going to be looking at this problem, going to be investigating the dark money, going to be considering a whole array of reforms at the Supreme Court, and I think that's really a highest priority right now. It really matters a lot in a republic if the highest court in the land is a real court or if it's a pantomimed court where judges go through the motions of adjudication, but at the end of the day, it's foreordained how they're going to rule because the same big donors who are in front of them are the people who put them on the court. Connecting those dots for the American public and making sure we have a real court and not a pantomimed court is a really high priority. 


Kristen Clarke [00:23:20] And let me just say, this is not a partisan issue, right? This is an issue that just matters for democracy generally. I think about, from a civil rights standpoint, all of the devastation and damage that we've lived through over the past three and a half, four years. And this feels like the real kick in the gut. Irreversible, right? Lifetime appointment, and just, the federal courts have just been decimated. Since the pandemic, my organization has litigated about three dozen voting rights cases to safeguard access to the ballot. We have won righteously at the district court level in many of these cases because it's just clear, voters have faced unconstitutional and unlawful barriers to the ballot this season. And many of those wins have been systematically overturned at the circuit court level where this administration has really dug in. And as Senator McConnell has committed, he's left no seat vacant. 


Harry Litman [00:24:16] Literally, literally. 


Kristen Clarke [00:24:18] And these judges have all proven to be extremist and outside the legal mainstream and hostile to voting rights and hostile to civil rights. So I am I am heartened to hear, Senator, that this is an issue that is top of mind. But I just want to underscore it's not a partisan issue. It's an issue that matters for our democracy, it matters for vulnerable communities, it matters for those who care about just the rule of law. 


Sheldon Whitehouse [00:24:45] Let me just echo one thing that Kristen just said, which is that this is not partisan. It looks very partisan because it was all Republicans and all Democrats disagreeing. But the agency here, the moving force was not so much the Republican Party as it was this big donor, dark money elite that funds the Republican Party and that funds the selection of these judges and that funds the campaigns for them, and that funds these phony groups that show up as amici curiae, friends of the court, to tell the judges they put on the court what the big donors want. That whole scheme is about as undemocratic, small d, as you could possibly have it. And the Republican Party was just a tool in that scheme, looking behind the Republican Party, who really pulled this off, there's going to be, I think, the heart of the investigation that needs to take place. 


Harry Litman [00:25:33] I do want to say your ten or fifteen minutes you chose to take rather than a questioner, your 10 or 15 minute presentation was a real tour de force in this regard. I kind of want to thread the needle between the two of you and just say that whether or not you do the whole dark money, Koch Brothers kind of analysis, there's just a problem with having, you can posit that they're all people of integrity and people who one might consider for high appointments to the court, except if there were a hundred such people in the room, every one of these five is from the ninety five to one hundred extreme. And you really do now have lockstep majority that can do whatever they want without rhyme or reason. And it, and it's bad for the court. 


Sheldon Whitehouse [00:26:20] Terrible for the court. 


Adam Schiff [00:26:22] There's one person who was not asleep at the wheel while all this was happening over the years, and that's Sheldon Whitehouse. You have been writing about this and speaking about this and prophesying about this, and it has all sadly come to pass. And I want to just underscore, Harry, what you said. If anyone hasn't watched Sheldon Whitehouse's opening statement during that hearing, it is must see TV. It just brilliantly lays out the case in a very comprehensive way... 


Harry Litman [00:26:50] With great graphics for a trial lawyer, the graphics were awesome, yeah. 


Adam Schiff [00:26:54] And you know, I'll also say that what Mitch McConnell has done has me considering things that I would never consider before. When Mitch McConnell refused to hold confirmation hearings on Merrick Garland, that really was a canary in the coal mine, or it should have been, in the sense that this was the first indication pre-Trump that for Mitch McConnell and others, the institutions don't matter anymore. There are no institutionalists left. All that matters is power and the preservation of power. And that he was willing to so betray a coequal branch of government and his own institution was a canary in the coal mine. Now, when you couple it with the, the grab you by the neck and choke you hypocrisy of jamming through this confirmation now, it means what they have done with this power play is they have withheld one justice and added another with a net 2 justice shift on the court. And the question to me is not about packing the court, the court has been stacked. Question now is, should the court be unstacked? 


Sheldon Whitehouse [00:27:57] Let's not forget Kavanaugh in the middle. That was as peculiar as the Garland to Gorsuch switch or the Barrett, you know, 180 on election year confirmations. 


Harry Litman [00:28:08] I just want to have one follow up to what the Congressman had to say, which is it's ironic. McConnell, you would know better, Senator, but I think he damn near broke the Senate. But he's actually, besides crowing about the achievement, he's comparing himself, I don't know if you saw this, to LBJ now as the greatest majority leader, when in fact, it seems to me, in terms of the institution of the Senate, he's sort of the anti-majority leader of the Senate. He's the one who's, who's suppressed the normal protocol of what the Senate's always been. 


Sheldon Whitehouse [00:28:43] When you've got a multi hundred million dollar operation telling you what to do, it's easy to take a victory lap and say that you're the genius, but I think he's the tool of these guys, and he's told exactly what to do by them. And they're kind of a walking think tank and strategy shop for him to deliver what they want in the courts and in return, they pour unlimited money behind his candidates to keep him as majority leader. That doesn't take any skill at all, that's just a question of who you're willing to stooge for. 


Kristen Clarke [00:29:12] Let me just jump in here for a moment to talk about the advice and consent role of the Senate, because I sat through virtually every day of the Kavanaugh hearings, virtually every day of the Gorsuch hearing, and, you know, those words mean something, right? I think about the start of the Kavanaugh hearings where they said, you know, executive privilege, we're not going to disclose his White House records, the kind of sham FBI process. It's lowered the floor substantially, right? That it made it virtually of virtual certainty that the Senate would just rubber stamp Amy Coney Barrett's nomination without doing any comprehensive, thorough examination of her record and who she really is and whether or not she's somebody really worthy of a lifetime seat on the court, and that that worries me. But Senator Whitehouse, if I can just throw a hypothetical out to you, if we could turn the clock back. President Obama puts forth Merrick Garland as the nominee, and senators refused so much as to meet with him, advice and consent can't mean doing nothing. If we turn the clock back, I wonder if the president should have just gone ahead and sworn Merrick Garland in, because the Senate had abdicated fully its responsibility to provide advice and consent by doing nothing, by doing absolutely nothing. 


Sheldon Whitehouse [00:30:34] Yeah. Give them notice, have the vote. They don't have the vote on a certain day, you just proceed. Say, you opted out, but that doesn't mean I lose my authority because you don't use your powers. There were a lot of ways that the powers of the presidency, I think, could have been brought to bear more effectively in that circumstance. But I think they were caught very flat footed, thinking that they'd gone halfway to the wards, the Republicans with Merrick Garland instead of with a progressive person. So not our finest hour, let's put it that way. But in addition, Kristen, to your point about the damage done to the Senate, it has also done immense damage to the court, and to have these three justices who are so eager to get on the court themselves, so ambitious to climb up onto that court that they're willing to climb that greasy Federalist Society pole. They're willing to audition to those big donors, they're willing to let Leonard Leo and Carrie Severino be their escorts onto the Supreme Court at whatever price to the damage of the institution they climb on to. This is a case study in putting your ambition before your principles and before your love for the institution that you're climbing into. This is really bad. We should not underestimate what they have done here and the amount of damage they did to do it and who they did it for and how little we know about it. 


Harry Litman [00:31:47] All right. And one, one very big question now will be what immediate damage could they wreak? So, and do want to turn to that with, first we take a moment for our Sidebar function here, where we explain some of the issues that are foundational to events that are typically in the news. 


We're very pleased to welcome Amy Aquino, who will discuss whether new Justice Amy Coney Barrett must and will recuse from issues that come before the Supreme Court involving President Trump. Amy is a television, film, and stage actress, has appeared in television series such as Brooklyn Bridge, E.R. and Being Human, and was nominated for a Screen Actors Guild Award for her role in Picket Fences. She's also the current chair of Arts for L.A., which for a decade has been the leading voice for arts and equity in Los Angeles, but it's particularly fitting that she read our Sidebar today because she's very well-known for having been a judge in Judging Amy, where she played Judge Gretta Anastassio. So Amy Aquino on Justice Amy Coney Barrett. 


Would Justice Barrett have to recuse herself from a 2020 election related case? Justice Amy Coney Barrett's hyper-fast track confirmation will, by design, result in her sitting on the high court before the presidential election. President Trump pushed her nomination forward quickly so that, among other reasons, the court would have a full bench, nine justices, to resolve any election related case. That poses the worrisome prospect that such a case, even one that could determine who wins the presidency, will arrive at the court just after she's joined. Would Barrett need to recuse herself if that happened? The federal statute governing when federal judges should recuse mandates recusal for a clear conflict of interest. For example, when a judge has a financial holding that the case before her could affect. But the governing standard here is more amorphous: Barrett would need to recuse if her impartiality 'might reasonably be questioned.' And Barrett herself gets to apply the standard. That's because for Supreme Court justices who wrongly decide on their own recusal, there is no enforcement save impeachment and removal. 


When Barrett was asked about recusal in a case that could decide the election, she didn't commit. She instead pledged to study the law and decide according to the normal judicial process. If it comes to it, Barrett will find herself confronting the Supreme Court's 2009 decision in Caperton v. A.T. Massey Coal Company. In that case, a coal company CEO made huge contributions to a candidate for West Virginia's highest court, knowing that the court would hear his company's appeal from an adverse jury verdict. The candidate won, and after refusing to recuse, voted to reverse the verdict against the coal company. The Supreme Court overrode that judge's subjective assessment that he would not be biased, and determined the judge should have recused because it was an intolerably high risk of actual bias. 


Look for Barrett to also factor in, even though the law doesn't expressly demand it, the consequences of her recusing, which would present the possibility of a four-four tie on the court. If Barrett concludes that her impartiality 'could not reasonably be questioned,' that would be the end of the matter. If she does recuse, and the court is locked in a four-four tie, the decision below would stand, but it would lack the conclusive institutional effect of a full resolution by the Supreme Court. Most observers predict that Barrett will not recuse, which means the court will be at full strength to decide any election issue before it. It also means that Barrett would begin her tenure in a cauldron of controversy. For Talking Feds, I'm Amy Aquino. 


Harry Litman [00:35:45] Thank you very much, Amy Aquino. Amy currently stars in the Amazon Studios television series Bosch, where she plays Lieutenant Grace Billets. 


All right, so, the big source of anxiety, consternation, uncertainty, etc., what the hell happens in the aftermath of an election where it's a certainty that the president will be trying to charge fraud and try to keep votes from being counted? We've now, in the olden days, I was a GC for Pennsylvania on a presidential campaign and it feels like, you know, that was out of quaint 19th century days. Vote first and get ready to litigate is this entrenched model and we've already had, I think, over 300 cases in 44 states on every aspect. So let's focus now on your concerns, I guess, especially about the the court. Kristen, you mentioned some unease based on what the court's done just in the last week before Barrett joined its ranks, what do you have in mind? 


Kristen Clarke [00:39:05] Well, Justice Kavanaugh has come up with a new rule that election results need to be locked and signed and sealed and delivered on election night. That never happens. There are 22 states in our country that allow absentee ballots to be counted if postmarked on Election Day, and for some reason, people seem to be squarely focused on this issue in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and North Carolina and so-called battleground states, but virtually half the country has rules in place that allow ballots to come in if postmarked by Election Day. You've got military voters, their ballots are often allowed to come in up to about, you know, a week, week and a half after Election Day. But there's a lot that happens before results get certified, so Justice Kavanaugh's view, I think, is deeply troubling and seems to echo the rhetoric that we've heard from President Trump, this notion that we need to stop counting the ballots and and should be deeply skeptical about any ballots that come in after Election Day. So I'm, I'm very concerned about this. I'm very concerned about Justice Alito's concurrence in, I believe the... 


Harry Litman [00:40:18] The Pennsylvania case, yeah. 


Kristen Clarke [00:40:19] Yeah. And, and now we see some counties starting to move to, to segregate ballots. They're putting in plans to put certain ballots that come in by Election Day in one pile and other ballots in a separate pile. You see the writing on the wall here, and we are prepared to go into court to fight back against any effort to disenfranchise voters, but it's just deeply troubling to see the Supreme Court trying to literally disenfranchised the will of the people here, certain justices on that court put in place by President Trump. And Amy Coney Barret, I would hope, would not want the start of her legacy on the Supreme Court to be, you know, one in which she literally was that fifth vote, that fifth vote that tipped the scales in an election in the way that President Trump intends. So I do hope that she will recuse herself from any case that may come before the court that concerns the 2020 election. 


Harry Litman [00:41:20] I think that there'll be all these claims of fraud, but there won't be evidence of it. Is Trump hoping to actually persuade courts of his vaporous view, or is it just to have general unrest, chaos, etc. and hope he can make something of it? 


Sheldon Whitehouse [00:41:38] I think it's two things. First, we have to hope that we win by enough margins, that this issue just goes away in the sweep of the election. But it allows him the chance to take a narrow loss and turn it into a victory, and a narrow loss for him as a... And it also allows him the opportunity to campaign for the rest of his life on how the election was stolen from him and run that narrative for years. 


Adam Schiff [00:42:05] Harry, I think in support a point out, though, that the chances for the Supreme Court to actually decide this election are very remote and they should be very remote. Ultimately, it's the Congress. If there's a conflict over what electors should be seated, it's the Congress of the United States that the Constitution gives the power to resolve that, and that is nonjusticiable. So should the Congress be in the hands of both House and Senate in Democratic hands, ultimately the Congress will make that decision. It's only, I think, in very unlikely contingencies where you have a divided Congress, where there become questions about whether a conflict between gubernatorially appointed electors and legislatively appointed electors, or there is no majority of electors that you would even have a role potentially for the court. But I think we want to make it abundantly clear, this election is not to be decided by the court, it is to be decided by the people. We want to make sure that every vote is counted, we're going to persevere to make sure every vote is counted. But if there is a dispute, ultimately, the Constitution gives the Congress the power to resolve the dispute. 


Harry Litman [00:43:10] Although query 2000, but I agree. We do think about the nightmare of Bush v. Gore, but the concatenation of improbabilities there that actually even gave it, legitimately or not, to them to issue would be very hard to sort of replicate here. I think the likelihood of something like that in a Senate race, perhaps. But a lot of things have to happen on the ground that I think are unlikely. Are you worried, Michigan rules yesterday that you get to carry concealed weapons and the like, are you worried about actual civil unrest here over the these next few weeks? 


Kristen Clarke [00:43:48] You know, the good thing is none of these polling sites are empty when people are showing up, right? I mean, you go out and you will be joined by hundreds of resilient voters who are determined to make sure their voice is heard. We're getting some of these complaints about militia activity, but gosh, how shameless do you have to be, right? I get it, Second Amendment right to bear arms, but why choose the school house yard or a playground or a polling site to demonstrate the might of your Second Amendment right to bear arms? It's just, it's shameful. It's it's obvious. It's a naked, brazen attempt to try to silence voters who, frankly, are more determined than ever to make sure that nothing, nothing holds them back or bars them from having their voice heard. So we've tried not to overplay this issue, we've gotten some spotty reports here and there, but I think in these last few days, we're just going to continue to see surges of people turning out who will, frankly, overwhelm the handful of heartless and cruel militia groups who choose to use the polling site to make a statement in this election. 


Harry Litman [00:45:05] That's just one of a parade of horribles, and obviously the next few weeks it could go in so many different directions. I think we'll leave it here for now, and hope maybe to check back in when the, when we really see what's happening on the ground. We've just a few minutes left for our Five Words or Fewer feature where a listener poses a question and we each have to answer it in Five Words or Fewer. And we have one today from Ben Aiden who asks: if Trump refuses, I think implicitly if Biden wins, but Trump refuses to concede, how and when will we know that the race is over? 


Sheldon Whitehouse [00:45:48] When Biden is sworn in and large Secret Service agents carry Trump out of the White House. 


Harry Litman [00:45:51] Fifteen words, but your point is made. OK? 


Kristen Clarke [00:45:54] When the public protests stop. 


Adam Schiff [00:45:58] When the state election returns come in. 


Harry Litman [00:46:01] I'll go with: When Fox News calls it. 


Thank you very much to Kristen Clarke, Congressmember Adam Schiff and Senator Sheldon Whitehouse. And thank you very much, listeners, for tuning in to Talking Feds. If you like what you've heard, please tell a friend to subscribe to us on Apple Podcasts or wherever they get their podcasts, and please take a moment to rate and review this podcast. You can follow us on Twitter @TalkingFedsPod to find out about future episodes and other Feds-related content. You can check us out on the web, talkingfeds.com , where we have full episode transcripts. And you can look to see our latest offerings on Patreon, where we post discussions about special topics exclusively for supporters, and these aren't outtakes or simply ad-free episodes, though we do have those there, but really original one-on-one discussions with national experts about burning issues. For example, Mary McCord, head of the Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection, discussing the prospect of domestic terrorism and military militias plaguing us during the election. So there's really a wealth of great stuff there, and you can go look at it to see what we have and then decide if you'd like to subscribe. 


Talking Feds is produced by Jennifer Bassett and Rebecca Lowe Patton. Our editor is Justin Wright, David Lieberman and Rosie Don Griffin are our contributing writers. Production assistance by Matt McArdle. Our consulting producer is Andrea Carla Michaels. Thanks very much to Amy Aquino for explaining whether Justice Amy Cloney Barrett would need to recuse from an election case involving President Trump. Our gratitude, as always, to the amazing Philip Glass, who graciously lets us use his music. Talking Feds is a production of Dalito, LLC. I'm Harry Litman, see you next time, and maybe in a different world. 


ROUNDING THE CORNER...TO WHAT?

Harry Litman [00:01:16] Welcome to Talking Feds, a roundtable that brings together prominent former federal officials and special guests for a dynamic discussion of the most important political and legal topics of the day. I'm Harry Litman. The case, as the lawyers say, is submitted. With the final debate in the rearview mirror, the two candidates for president have done what they can to persuade voters to stay the course, or make a change. Absent some Halloween surprise, the election now focuses on the get out the vote ground game and, of course, the flying hordes of lawyers on both sides whose work can be fairly summarized as follows: Republicans trying every stratagem to reduce the number of voters, especially minorities, and Democrats pairing with efforts to increase them. 

The third debate actually seemed debate-like, with Biden and Trump both displaying overall restraint and even substance, though in Trump's case, the substance consisted in large part of claims that were already shown to be false before he left the stage. As CNN's fact checker put it, quote, "It was an absolute avalanche of lying," close quote. Biden seemed to land the bigger blows, in particular on Trump's record on the virus and immigration policy. And he was able to swat away Trump's efforts to dirty up Hunter Biden and the Biden brand, which came across as confusing and conjectural. To analyze that candidate's final case to the American people and give a preview of the quickly shortening horizon between now and December 3rd. We have an all star gang of expert commentators, all returning guests to Talking Feds. And they are:

Vanita Gupta, president and chief executive officer of the Leadership Conference of Civil and Human Rights. Prior to this, Vanita served as the acting assistant attorney general and head of the U.S. Department's Civil Rights Division. Welcome back, Vanita. 

Vanita Gupta [00:03:26] Great to be here. 

Harry Litman [00:03:27] Matt Miller, very, very well-known to everybody on this show. He is a partner at the strategic advisory firm of Vianovo, and the former director of the Office of Public Affairs for the Department of Justice. Thanks for being here, Matt. 

Matt Miller [00:03:44] Thank you Harry, as always. 

Harry Litman [00:03:46] And finally, Congressman Jamie Raskin, who represents the 8th District of Maryland, is a member of the Judiciary Committee and the Oversight and Reform Committee, and he is vice chair of both the House Administration Committee and the Judiciary Subcommittee on the Constitution, which is fitting because for more than 25 years, he's been a professor of constitutional law at American University's Washington College of Law. Thank you very much. I'll hazard Jamie, can I call Congressman Jamie for being here on Talking Feds? 

Jamie Raskin [00:04:20] I'm delighted to be with you. 

Harry Litman [00:04:22] So, look, lots to say about the debate, though. I want to leave room for the coming week. But let's start with Trump himself, leaving the substance aside, which, as I mentioned, was completely mendacious. Somebody got to him, right? I mean, he actually was a different and more effective debater. Aggressive, but not asinine, as in the first debate. And all the 'let Trump be Trump and you can't control him' seemed maybe contradicted, right? He actually showed some discipline. 

Jamie Raskin [00:04:56] Well, that's certainly my perspective. I mean, it wasn't the Lincoln Douglas debates, but it was not a complete barroom brawl. He seemed slightly disciplined as Trump goes. I mean, still, when you compare him to anybody else who's ever been in a presidential debate, he was an absolute wild man. But on Trump's own terms, he seemed to be slightly more disciplined and focused and he had a couple of themes, like when he was calling Biden a politician, a typical politician. That clearly was his marching order. 

Harry Litman [00:05:25] Yeah. I mean, he got sobered up somehow, right? He really seemed to have been chastened and, you know, thinking he couldn't be the same old nasty guy. 

Jamie Raskin [00:05:33] But, he was lying compulsively the entire time. 

Harry Litman [00:05:35] Lying compulsively, yeah.

Vanita Gupta [00:05:37] That's always the thing, though, is that the bar was so low yesterday and clearly his advisers said, like, shape it up. That was a terrible first debate for yourself. The lying is so kind of beyond the pale of when anyone should accept from a president, so we overread into the stylistic stuff because of where we started from with this first debate. But it's like the substance and the lying is the thing that actually should be the most germane take away from a debate. And there you have it. Sometimes I feel like he's the beneficiary of the incredibly low expectations that are unique to Trump alone, that don't apply to anyone else. And and so the commentators after can kind of go in and look at the style and say, oh, look, he's like more presidential when the lying itself and the constant lying about all the substance, which is what the American people need amid a pandemic and they need to understand, you know, what that forward-leaning vision and policies are actually going to be that affect our lives. That stuff can get brushed aside. 

Matt Miller [00:06:34] Yeah, I think all that's true. I think we also learned a valuable lesson that one of the best ways to deal with Donald Trump is to turn off the microphone. It has an impact, and I'm being serious. I think he very much knew that trying to interrupt Joe Biden when his microphone was off was going to look pretty silly. I also think people convinced him that the hour is late and what he did last time didn't work. It had a noticeable impact on his polling last time. And I would say one of the things about his lying is that he does have the ability, because the bar has been lowered so much for him, to lie and be an effective communicator in lying, to lie and get away with it. And he lied last night, and to the extent he got to, he gets away with it, I still don't think it's going to matter. I don't think it mattered in his presentation last night, because I still think his fundamental problem, which is, number one, he doesn't have a message that's compelling on the most important issue facing the country. And number two, he's out of touch on the most important issue facing the country. That still came through loud and clear last night, even despite all his line about the underlying substance. 

Harry Litman [00:07:36] You know, I think that's true. But we could turn around and take it from Biden's point of view. It's kind of a challenge, he knows he's against a guy who's gonna lie all the time. He could either call him on it, then it is a barroom brawl, he could let it all pass. He had a sort of middle ground strategy, it seemed to me. He called out the most important ones, though, as you say, Matt, he stuck to his own themes: No plan, no plan. But then those continual interjections of not true. Not true. Not true. And I think he was himself adroitly prepared to not make it seem like a factual match between the two of them and to stick to his themes. But still, you have to remind people that he's not telling the truth. I mean, the imponderable of this whole thing is the sliver, if it's even that, of still undecided voters, how are they hearing the lies? 

Vanita Gupta [00:08:29] First of all, I kept asking myself, who the hell is undecided at this point of the election? I'm so curious about that. There was a really interesting moment, though, where there was a back and forth, and Biden at some point, I think Kristen Welker said, you know, do you want to respond, Mr. Vice President? He was like, no. Like, he just kind of shut it down, because there had been like a back and forth twice about the lie and the truth and whatever. And he just, I thought that was actually smart, even though my impulse was like, you've got to correct that lie for the fourth time! It was actually just smart to be like, I'm done, like I've spoken. The truth is out there, people will assess this how they will.

Yeah there are different kinds of lies. When the president says I'm going to protect preexisting conditions, Biden needs to jump in and give an answer and contradict that, because the average American voter may not know the details of Trump's health care plan. Well, he doesn't have one, but to the extent it says he has one versus Biden's. But there are other lies that the president can tell if he can't get away with. Like, for example, when the president says we're rounded the corner on the virus, Biden doesn't need to correct that, the American people know we're not rounding the corner. It's absurd on its face, so that's what I said when I meant that there are some lies that he can tell don't work with the substantive record because they're issues that the American public knows so much about. And that's that's that's the biggest one by far. It's the most important issue, he came out last night, said this absurdly out of touch line, that we're turning the corner. And I think it's the fundamental reason for all his political problems. 

Jamie Raskin [00:09:54] I think the most effective lies that Trump told and that he tells are when he calculates what the criticism of him is going to be, and then he immediately turns it into a completely fictitious attack on his opponent. So he knows, of course, he's totally compromised by his relationship with Putin. He's allowed Putin to run amok in our elections, he's allowed Putin to help us tear asunder our relationships with our allies, put a bounty on the heads of American soldiers and did nothing. So he preempts Biden by saying, 'you're getting paid by Russia, you're working for China,' you know. And so you get this kind of just rhetorical quicksand and fog and nobody can understand what's going on. You know, and that's where the lying just becomes part of the culture. It just permeates everything. The other thing I thought that was kind of effective that Trump did and I wish Biden had been able to punch back harder, but when Biden spoke very effectively, I thought the things he wanted to do, like the public option, adding that to the ACA or dealing with climate change, then Trump clearly had been told or had worked it out, he was going to say, 'how come you didn't do it? You've been in politics for 97 years and you didn't do any of this stuff.' Well, the answer, of course, is we were getting other things done. Then we have a whole new agenda we need to get done now. The real question is, why aren't you doing anything in office today? You've been in office for four years, you've given us no healthcare plan, even though you keep talking about it. You've got no strategy to defeat the disease. And so I think Biden was very disciplined and focused and controlled, but I wish he'd gotten upset at least once or twice about being taunted about why hadn't he done things in the past? Because he did a lot of stuff before with Obama, and this is all about the future and a lot of it is just trying to rectify the damage of the Trump administration. 

Harry Litman [00:11:48] You know, I agree. I mean, there was even one moment where he seemed to kind of put distance between him and Obama and say, well, I was vice president then, now I'm going to be present. And it wasn't his his strongest, but I want to focus again on the virus and the point that Matt just made. It sure seems like pretty empty at this point to say 'rounding the corner, vaccine in a couple weeks, we're one of the best in the world, spikes all go down.' But is it clear that that, in fact, rings hollow to everybody now or, you know, is it the sort of thing that Trump can somehow persuade people of? 

Vanita Gupta [00:12:26] Well, it wasn't clear to me that anyone moved or changed their mind after yesterday's debate. And so for those that are convinced that they're rounding the corner or that COVID is not a big deal, maybe they continue to believe that based on what Trump was saying for anyone else, hard to look at the evidence and the facts. I think the calling Dr. Fauci an idiot, I thought it was effective for Biden to reraise that. But because I just feel like people are pretty entrenched in their views on this right now, it wasn't clear to me that the statements that were being made at yesterday's debate actually changed anyone's mind about how they view both of these people and whether they think they can lead us all out of this pandemic. 

Harry Litman [00:13:05] It was one time of many that he did something specific and obviously thought through in advance, which has turned to the camera and talked about the kitchen table issues, as if he is actually looking at people at the kitchen table, the sort of 'not his family, my family, it's your family.' He really, I thought, effectively brought it home to people's lived lives. 

Jamie Raskin [00:13:30] I liked when Joe said, 'come on, let's just cut through the nonsense, you know his character and you know my character.' And that just sort of woke people up. I mean, we're not dealing with any kind of conventional electoral debate here where people are scoring points and stuff like that. We can continue down the road of a failed state that fails to deliver the basic goods of existence like protection against disease, protection against gun violence, protection against climate change. I mean, it's a broken social contract with just smoke and mirrors and just increasingly cannibalistic circuses that they're providing the Fox News audience. Or we can get back on the road of democratic reconstruction and progress. And I wish Joe had spoken a little bit more about Kamala Harris, because I think that she's so much just the vision of the future in this race. But I thought he was super presidential and reassuring to the country. 

Matt Miller [00:14:28] Yeah. And, Harry, I think that the moment when Biden did talk directly to the country and talked about the losses that so many families have have suffered was important for two reasons. One, because that's always went, Ben, when Biden has been at his best. He's just a deeply empathetic person. He connects with people and partly because of the on the tragedies he's gone through in his own life. Partly it's just who he is, but also because it's such a contrast with Trump. It's the thing that Donald Trump can't do. Donald Trump can never show any connection with anyone but himself, not even really with his own family. And it's in some ways a metaphor for the entire campaign. 

I think the problem with the entire campaign is love him or hate him, in 2016, he had a message. He had a message about where the country was and how the people in the middle of the country had been forgotten by the elites and that they had seen their jobs taken away by immigrants. His message this time is all about me, me, me, me, me. I've done more for African-Americans than anyone since Abraham Lincoln. I have been so mistreated by the media. The deep state has been out to get me. His entire message is always about him, it was about him all through the debate last night, he never has that ability to kind of look into the camera and tell voters what he's going to do for their life, because he is just kind of gone down this rabbit hole of self-absorption, even more so now than when he first got into politics four or five years ago. 

Vanita Gupta [00:15:47] What was so interesting is when Biden actually did that and looked at the camera and talked about struggling families, Trump got irate. Like he just it was like, how dare you? That's such a politician's move to talk about caring about other people and struggling families amid this pandemic. And it's like, no, actually, that's what I do want my elected official to care about is my family. But it was like it really got under his skin. But I mean, I know as part of his playbook to just keep going back to this line of Biden, your a politician. The other thing that I thought was really galling is he didn't say during the COVID conversation, like, what were you doing Biden?  What were you doing? And it's like, well, who was the president of the United States at that time? And it's just this bizarre kind of trying to make an equivalent like the role that Biden played in January on the pandemic versus like being the president of the United States and the obligation that that should carry amid the pandemic. 

But I just have to raise this thing because it was just galling to me, and when we're talking about lies. I mean, he kept repeating, 'I'm the least racist person in this room.' Anyone who has to say that repeatedly, like, it just speaks for itself. But also everything about his record and the emboldening of white supremacists. It was both infuriating and comical at the same time. Again, do I think that he convinced anyone on either side of that? No, I don't. But it did, I think, really, I thought it was such a telling moment for anyone who, like, might have been at all confused. The lying and the narcissism is astonishing, and it's really, the record where he kept trying to bring up criminal justice reform. I have something to say about that. And the kind of the Obama Justice Department wasn't perfect, but the systematic undoing of everything that we did to lower the federal prison rate, to incentivize states to have a clemency project. It's just it's incredible and galling. 

Jamie Raskin [00:17:36] I mean, we're witnessing really this spectacular collapse of American political tradition where you have a presidential candidate, an incumbent president, no less, running on literally no platform. The Republican National Convention created no platform, they decided not to do one for the first time in many, many decades. If you're a Republican, what are you supporting? Basically, you support whatever words come out of Trump's mouth. So the deep structure of it really is racism. I mean, that's really the only unifying thread of the whole thing. 

Matt Miller [00:18:12] I thought it was fairly amazing how the president said he was the least racist person in the room. 

Harry Litman [00:18:16] Whatever that means, yeah. 

Matt Miller [00:18:17] Five minutes before, he said the only immigrants that show up for their court appointments are the ones with low IQs. 

Harry Litman [00:18:22] And he said one percent, when it's closer to ninety nine. I actually want to stick with immigration for a moment, because Jamie's comment put this in mind to me. I mean, I thought it was a very effective moment for Biden just because the facts are so strong. The separation of the 545 migrant children you cannot find their parents. And Trump's response was, I've seen them, and the facilities are so clean. That, to me was the most sort of cringing moment of the entire debate, and it seemed to me if there are votes left to lose, he must have lost a few dozen there. 

Jamie Raskin [00:18:59] Well, yeah, I think, as Matt was saying, there's no empathy. There's no sense of human connection. And ultimately, COIVID-19 has not only destroyed now 225,000 lives and all of the families that have been devastated by that and brought the economy to its knees with more unemployed people than we've had ever in American history. But it's been this massive attack on family life and social life, community life. I mean, people can see their nuclear family. Maybe people in their nuclear families have gotten a little bit closer because everybody's in one place. But extended families, people's uncles and aunts and cousins and grandparents, peoples' neighbors, the ability to socialize. It's been an absolute nightmare, total destruction, but it means nothing to Donald Trump. 

And he wants to convoke the crowd only as kind of a circus audience for him. I mean, everybody has got to be reduced to a TV audience for him, for his reality show. Now we're getting back from the hospital. Everybody crowd together. No masks, because that's too much of an intrusion of reality. I just don't think the country can take it anymore. His whole approach is so farcical and absurd, that I think that Biden ultimately dealt with it in the right way, just said, 'let's get back to reality. We got some really serious problems that we've got to deal with.' I mean, it's going to be a very long walk back to try to rebuild the country after this nightmare. 

Harry Litman [00:20:26] One quick question on Biden, Trump seemed triumphant when Biden spoke about the oil industry and the need to move away from it. Did that give anybody heartburn here, about what Biden had to say about the oil industry? 

So as the probably the only Texan on this Zoom, although I know Vanita spent a fair amount of time there, my first reaction was, hmm, I don't know, I wonder how that's going to play in Houston. I mean, usually we wouldn't care about what a presidential candidate said in Texas, but this year, Texas is very much in play. But, you know, it's been a while since I lived there. I woke up this morning and called all my Texas partners, and they said that everyone in Houston believes the exact same thing, that we're transitioning out of the oil industry. This isn't 1970s, it's not even 20 years ago, the oil industry is changing, the state of the economy and Texas is changing. And it's not the kind of remark that's going to hurt him there, and I think even if you look at that kind of comment outside of just that one state, it's the type of comment that vast majorities of the American public actually agree with. 

Harry Litman [00:21:24] So much more to say about the debate. But I want to leave time for other things. I just want to give props to my Talking Feds co-pilot Matt, because months ago, he said what Biden really needs to do is just kind of lie low and let this be all about Trump, all about Trump, all about Trump. And the more it is, the better it's going to be. And just these last 20 minutes, it's all we've been saying, but it really has been true that he's in pole position that he is because the focus has been so relentlessly on the president and his record. 

OK, it's now time to take a moment for our Sidebar feature, which explains some of the terms and relationships that are foundational to events that are typically in the news. We have a delightful sidebar reader today, Will Shortz. Will is an American puzzle creator and editor and the crossword puzzle editor for The New York Times. He is the founder of both the American Crossword Puzzle Tournament and the World Puzzle Championship, a director of the U.S. puzzle team and a participant on many TV shows, as well as the 2006 documentary Wordplay, which focuses on Shortz and the American Crossword Puzzle Tournament. Will made his Sidebar choice based on certain words that have or have not appeared in puzzles, a topic about which he seems to have encyclopedic knowledge. So he will be telling us about the elements of a criminal offense. 

Will Shortz [00:22:58] What are the basic elements of a criminal offense? In a criminal prosecution, the government has the burden of proof under the Constitution to establish every component of the charged crime beyond a reasonable doubt. Most criminal offenses involve three basic components or elements: first, the wrongful act itself. Second, the perpetrator's wrongful mental state. And third, sufficient causation between the act and its harmful or prohibited effect. This basic elemental structure ensures that in general, neither unintended acts nor mere thoughts are criminally punishable. Taking each element in turn, the criminal act known in legal circles by its Latin name, actus reus, is, roughly speaking, the physical conduct in the world. For example, shooting a gun. 

In attempt crimes, the government carries its burden with regard to the act element by proving a substantial step toward the completion of a crime. The second component, the perpetrator's mental state is called the mens rea, or guilty mind element. It's defined in terms of the specific harm the law is trying to prevent, such as a victim's death. There are four main mens rea standards. From most to least culpable, these are: acting purposely or having the purpose in mind of causing a specific harm (for example, a victim's death), acting knowingly or being aware that the conduct will cause the harm, acting recklessly or consciously disregarding as substantial and unjustified risk of the harm, and acting with negligence or acting or failing to act when a reasonable person would have known the risk of the harm. Higher levels of blameworthiness typically correlate with more severe liability and harsher sentencing. 

Some crimes, called strict liability crimes, lack a mens rea element, meaning one can be convicted of them without any proof of mental state. Drunk driving is an example. Finally, causation must also be proved beyond a reasonable doubt. In some cases, this element is straightforward, such as where a defendant fired a gun at a victim and caused immediate death. But proving causation can be complex in certain situations. For example, where intervening events occur between the defendants guilty act and the harm at issue. For Talking Feds, I'm Will Shortz. 

Harry Litman [00:25:17] Thank you very much, Will Shortz, for explaining the basic elements of a criminal offense. 

I'd like to just look ahead now at the next week, the days are clicking by so rapidly, and have a have a sense of you would normally think that at this time in a campaign, there's you know, both candidates are just saying their tag lines and trying to get out the vote. But this has not been a usual campaign and the president is not a usual candidate. Let's start with this Hunter Biden fixation that he tried to bring up in the debate last night, I thought to very poor effect, no one really could follow what he was talking about. Is that something you expect him to try to kick up dirt about over the next week, or is that all pretty much done? 

Jamie Raskin [00:27:10] Psychologically, it seems important to Trump because it does allow him to project outwards all of his consciousness of guilt in terms of the rampant money making and profiteering that's taken place in his administration. But politically, it's a complete dead end, because if there's anybody out there who really cares about corruption, they're voting for Biden, Donald Trump is the most corrupt president of our lifetime by far, and everybody knows that. He said he was going to drain the swamp. He moved into the swamp deep to the hotel on it. He started renting out rooms to Saudi Arabia and Turkey and Azerbaijan. 

Harry Litman [00:27:47] The swamp c'est moi, right. He is the swamp! 

Jamie Raskin [00:27:51] So in other words, I don't, does he think he's going to pull over some common cause members at this point? I just don't know where that goes. The public has made the judgment, and I think that Biden appealed to this in an expert way. The public has made the judgment that he is a decent and honorable man. You know, Cicero said 'nothing is more popular than goodness.' I think people have made the judgment, he's a good guy, and Trump is absolutely satanic and sinister and evil. That's what some people love about him, but he's, you're not going to vote for him because you want the clean government candidate. 

Matt Miller [00:28:26] You know, I agree with the congressman. Look, I don't think he's going to drop it, he's been at this for over a year. It's what got him impeached in the first place, remember, was him trying to raise all this Hunter Biden stuff. And I think he also won't drop it because he doesn't have anything else. I mean, I think it is a overlooked fact that in addition to Trump not having a message about his tenure and why he deserves four more years, he's never landed on a compelling message about Biden. I mean he's never had a message, you've seen him bounce around, at times it's been about Hunter Biden, at times it's been about he can't leave his basement, at times it's been about he's going to be the captive of the left. None of those messages interplay with each other in any real way. They're all kind of disparate themes and none of them stitched together to an overall narrative about why Biden can't be president. 

And I think it just goes back to this problem he has, which, you know, I talked about how he didn't have a message, he also is kind of a captive of this Fox News universe that he lives in. And for much of his tenure, having that right wing ecosystem has been a valuable tool for him because it's provided him a floor under which he can't sink, somewhere around 40, 42 percent, and he can't go below that. But what we found out over the course of this campaign is that the ceiling is also very close to the floor in this room in which he lives. The floor may be 42, but the ceiling is somewhere around 43 or 44, it's not far off. And so when he's operating in this narrow band here and can't seem to find a way to stretch outside of it, what you find as you get closer to the election is, it's given him nowhere to grow. 

Vanita Gupta [00:29:52] I also think he's in his comfort zone to be a bully or to like pick the bogeyman, fixate on an individual and try to rake them through the coals, and it gives him an out to not have to articulate and put forth an actual plan on anything. But this is his comfort zone is to rest in this place of doing ad hominem attacks and trying to get folks galvanized around that narrative. 

Jamie Raskin [00:30:13] If I could say one thing about Hunter Biden, I think to the extent that the public has any real consciousness of him, people see him as somebody who suffered from serious alcohol and drug problems. And there are so many families across the country who can identify with that, and are not going to pounce on Joe Biden, who's a good guy because of the health problems that one of his kids has suffered, especially after all the tragedy experienced by the Biden family. 

Harry Litman [00:30:38] Completely. I mean, even more, actually, the emails that came out showed Biden as this caring father with a, you know, difficult child. And obviously, it's another place where, comparatively speaking, Trump stacks up not very well. But I think he's also miscalculated the point that Matt made, I did post an analysis on Fox last night and they, y'know everyone was completely marinated in this Bo Belinsky different stuff. And I just had to say these, it was just these, you know, stray talking points that had no connection, sheets and pillows and laptop from hell. And really no, it's just, it's just I think too late to have any purchase. 

Jamie Raskin [00:31:22] Turning on Fox News is like wandering into the meeting of a religious cult at this point, you can't understand most of the references and the words. It's totally bizarre, and it doesn't touch anybody else's reality. That's the problem with that kind of politics, I mean, that and the fact that that sort of sinking leads you to Jonestown, too. I mean that's how you end up at a Rose Garden event where nobody's wearing a mask and there's no social distancing, and it's for a Supreme Court nominee, in the middle of a plague and a pandemic, largely circulated in advance by the lethal negligence of the president. 

Vanita Gupta [00:31:58] But I do think that we have to acknowledge that there are a lot of people in this country who are consuming all of this and are in that space of the kind of conspiracy theories are eating it up, and they've had four years of this. And so, you know, this is part of what gets built back, this is you know, this is going to be one of our our challenges. When I think about, you know, people are always asking me, like, what's the biggest thing that's going to be the hardest part to rebuild? And we talk about the rule of law. We talk about all these concepts, like I, you know it is, we're in this incredibly polarized time. What do we do about this? What do we do about the fact that there are a lot of people that are in that space kind of consuming this and have accepted the politicization of mask wearing, have you know, the emboldening of white supremacy and the kind of the outing of this like these are some of the forces that I think we have to... these are not easy things that we can just dismiss out of hand as being something that Trump brought, and so I think these are gonna be some of our biggest challenges, is to figure out how we work through this, how we rebuild our institutions, but also what are we doing about how toxic our media is, how toxic and polarized our country has become, and I don't mean to be Pollyanna about it, because I think it actually carries very serious consequences for people in this country to to be where we are at this very moment. And so that'll be the podcast, Harry, that you will do depending on the outcome of this election, over and over again. But, you know, these are some really serious questions to tackle. 

Harry Litman [00:33:29] Look, you're right. Mainly, I think about this now as, we should have such problems, but there they are, extreme and the partisan in me thinks like, you know this if Biden wins, all appropriate spits over the shoulder, et cetera, it'll be the second time in a row that Democrats have come into office having been dealt such a huge mess to try to clean up. Vanita, you've been pretty focused on something that seems perhaps to be a teeny problem, but seems perhaps to be not so small, which is the concern about kind of disruption during the election on the part of, you know, nationalist domestic terrorist groups. 

Vanita Gupta [00:34:12] So we are a lot of us in the civil rights community, in the voting rights community are really engaged on this, and there's been a lot of great work done around the country to educate and brief and work with law enforcement right now about the duties, like what's lawful, what isn't around armed militias, and Mary McCord, we've been working together on these. You know, look, I think one thing is there's a lot of heightened anxiety about this because of what we've seen in Michigan and other places. I will say right now, we are, we're in the middle of early voting around the country while there's been like some anecdotes here and there, it's by and large been going well so far and there hasn't been heightened reasons to be overly concerned. But we have to make sure that we are all aware and understand that in a lot of cases where people talk about armed militia, there's actually, it isn't like the First and Second Amendment gives them the right to do some of what they're doing, there's a lot that is unlawful about how they have organized themselves and they can't be, you know voter intimidation laws are very, very clear. But I am right about after the election, to the extent there's going to be a lot of anxiety, the election is going to take time to call, at least in many states we may know results in Florida, North Carolina, because they do pre-canvassing of ballots and there'll be probably greater ability to determine the election, perhaps in some states, the anxiety and the prolonged kind of indecision could certainly give rise to more manifestations of armed militia, of chaos. And there's been a lot of conversation about all kinds of threats, both legal, constitutional, armed militia and the like. Right now, folks are voting. Voters need to have maximum confidence that they can vote...

Harry Litman [00:35:49] 60 million, right? we've had 60 million votes already. 

Vanita Gupta [00:35:51] Yeah. And so we've got high voter turnout, and voters need to have confidence in our democracy. High voter turnout is going to be the best inoculation against all of this, it will create more certainty in our election results, and people need to have confidence that our votes will be counted. And so that's where I am really focused on, even while we're kind of working behind the scenes to avert any threats. 

Harry Litman [00:36:11] Where's the DOJ going to be here? There's, you know, it passed pretty quietly, but the attorney general amended regulations to give them the possibility of having a pretty aggressive role on Election Day itself. Is that something that you think's a concrete worry? 

Matt Miller [00:36:27] I think it's a real concern. Look, the thing that worries me the most is that Vanita is basically going to have to do her old job from the outside. Vanita used to run the civil rights department, the civil rights department, along with the US attorney's offices around the country, actually have a job in fighting voter suppression. And I don't have a lot of faith that the Justice Department under Bill Barr is going to do that. I hope there's some U.S. attorneys who will do their job, certainly the career people, I think, will try to, but I don't...

Harry Litman [00:36:52] Well they have license to do the opposite. They can come in and say there's been voter fraud afoot. 

Matt Miller [00:36:57] That's what I was about to say that, that in addition to not doing the job they're supposed to, I have a real concern that, probably not on Election Day, but if we are in a scenario where the election isn't called on election night and votes are being counted after the fact that you're going to see the Justice Department basically come in as an arm of the Trump campaign and move to try to stop the counts because they claim fraud is underway and they have loosened the rules to make it easier for them to talk about those things publicly, and I think it's a very, very real concern. 

Harry Litman [00:37:25] And there'll be, there'll be a new member of the Supreme Court. 

Vanita Gupta [00:37:28] Just a really important point to make, which is I totally agree. I mean, I think Barr at every turn has shown himself basically to be Trump's defense lawyer, not the lawyer protecting the American people and enforcing our laws. That said, he doesn't get to count the ballots, and the president doesn't get to count the ballots. The ballots will be in the custody of local election officials, and I think there's been you know, he's done two things that have alarmed people recently. One is he made this announcement about an incomplete investigation into voter fraud in Luzerne County with these nine ballots. That was an unprecedented announcement that really to me was a messaging thing to spook folks and to be like, look, the Justice Department is watching all of this. The Justice Department never announces incomplete voting investigations. But the other thing they did is very typically, every election cycle, the Justice Department has a non-interference policy into elections. And they announced very, it was caught by ProPublica, but an exception that was announced a few weeks ago to this non-interference policy. Again, I think a lot of this is largely messaging, but the problem is his narrative actually really matters in these instances. So what I could see is Barr on November 3rd making an announcement about, you know, a series of ballot fraud investigations in some key states, but it is still important for the American public to know that the Justice Department doesn't get to impound ballots, like the ballots stay in the custody of local election officials that will be doing the counting, and the president is actually firewalled off of a lot of this for good reason. The system wouldn't survive, you'd have the incumbent winning every single time if that was the case. So, but I agree that we're going to have to be really mindful of all of this. And there is a whole ecosystem outside of the Justice Department that is, as Matt said, trying to act as the kind of NGO Justice Department, because we really don't have one that is protecting voters right now. 

Jamie Raskin [00:39:21] We've got the civil rights community, and Vanita and great lawyers who know election law... 

Harry Litman [00:39:27] Thousands of them, yeah. 

Jamie Raskin [00:39:29] Who are all over the country, and are gonna be fighting this at every level where Republicans are up to their old tricks. Remember, this is the first election in decades where the Republican National Committee is not governed by a consent decree where they agree not to send their so-called election observers to the polls. So people are aware of that, but we know that we could see cyber-interference coming from Russia, you know, against election boards. We could see attempts to hack into the media to change the reportage of events. I mean, there's a lot of things going on, but we're, this time we're aware and we're out there trying to stop it, so that's an important thing. But I hope everybody appreciates the extraordinary irony of what Vanita was just saying, because Donald Trump's whole attack on so-called fraud, or scam, or whatever he's calling elections these days, is an attack on American federalism. It's an attack on state governments and their ability to count the ballots. So the people who parade around and advertise themselves as defenders of federalism actually are doing everything they can to trash it. And there's never been a better argument for American federalism and state governments than those that have been fighting against this remarkable right-wing authoritarian seizure of the federal government. 

Harry Litman [00:40:53] Jamie, what's your number one concern about Election Day if we haven't named it already? 

Jamie Raskin [00:40:58] I suppose, you know that the president has been dog-whistling through his bullhorn, as Joe Biden put it last night, to white supremacists and, you know, violent people to go to the polls, I'm not quite sure exactly what that means. Nobody needs them at the polls, but we did see that some of them showed up in Virginia when early voting started. For me, look, I'll put my cards on the table. Remember when Ben Franklin said, 'a republic, if you can keep it.' I think at this point there's going to be a landslide if we can keep it. I think we are going to win the popular vote and Electoral College votes overwhelmingly. The question is, are we actually going to win the election, because there are so many levers of mischief and strategic corruption that the Republicans may decide to deploy if the election is close enough, which is why our best antidote to all of this is a landslide where you get everybody, including Republican senators and governors and state legislators, just saying, OK, let's just put this behind us and try to rebuild our party if they can. 

But if it's at all close, you know, we really could see tricks like Republican legislatures in swing states like Pennsylvania deciding to try to nullify the popular vote, overthrow and repeal the prior election law, and just pass a law that institutes electors for Trump or splitting them 50/50 or awarding them to somebody else. And they're going to face a lot of, I think, insurmountable legal problems in doing that. One is that they're not going to follow the legal and constitutional process of the state. The laws that they're purporting to nullify are laws that were passed and signed into law by the governor, which means the governor can veto what they want to do now. They think that somehow they've got this magic wand from Article two of the Constitution that allows them to do whatever they want to do without going through a state constitutional process, I think it's wrong. 

Two, they're going up against the electoral count act of 1887, which says that there's a presumption that electors sent in this year by December 14th are valid. If they are produced in accordance with the prior election law. That is, an election law that took place before the casting of ballots, not a new one, improvised after. And then finally, you know, even if they were to somehow send a phony slate to Washington and the Senate president, who is Vice President Pence, reads them when we are assembled in Congress to receive the electors, and the vice president decides to pick a phony slate. We in the House side can object. The Senate can object, or one senator can object, and we go back to our own chambers to resolve it. And the House is going to stand by the popular vote, and by the Electoral College vote as it really is, in the Senate, if it's Democratic-run at that point, we'll also do it. And if it's not, if there's a split between the two, at that point, it's the certificates of ascertainment that are issued by the governors that count. And even though the Republicans do control the legislatures in a number of swing states like Wisconsin, North Carolina and PA, there are Democratic governors there, and I think that their word will be final as to which electors are the valid ones. 

Harry Litman [00:44:13] All right. I'm going to make it a point to listen to that about six times because everything was in there that could happen. We are out of time, we only have a couple seconds left for our final feature of Five Words or Fewer, and it dovetails with what Jamie is talking about. It comes from Matt Kegel, and  it's five words itself, he says, 'for extra panache:' is the Electoral College broken? 

Jamie Raskin [00:44:36] Yes. But let's make it work in 2020. 

Harry Litman [00:44:40] Vanita? Matt? 

Matt Miller [00:44:41] Yes, it always has been. 

Vanita Gupta [00:44:43] Yes, it is.

Harry Litman [00:44:44] Yes, but carefully consider alternatives. 

[00:44:53] Thank you very much to Jamie, Matt and Vanita, and thank you very much, listeners, for tuning in to Talking Feds. If you like what you've heard, please tell a friend to subscribe to us on Apple Podcasts, or wherever they get their podcasts, and please take a moment to rate and review this podcast. You can follow us on Twitter @TalkingFedsPod , to find out about future episodes and other Feds-related content. You can check us out on the web, talkingfeds.com , where we have full episode transcripts, and you can look to see our latest offerings on Patreon, where we post discussions about special topics exclusively for supporters. And these aren't outtakes or simply add free episodes, though we do have those there, but really original, one on one discussions with national experts. Just in the last couple days, we've posted a long interview with Peter Strzokabout his new book, Compromise, and a one on one with Phil Halpern explaining why he left the Department of Justice. 

[00:46:00] Submit your questions to questions@talkingfeds.com , whether it's for Five Words or Fewer, or general questions about the inner workings of the legal system for our Sidebar segments. Thanks for tuning in. And don't worry: as long as you need answers, the Feds will keep talking. Talking Feds is produced by Jennifer Bassett and Rebecca Lowe Patton. Our editor is Justin Wright. David Lieberman and Rosie Don Griffin are our contributing writers. Production assistance by Matt McArdle, and our consulting producer is Andrea Carla Michaels. Thanks very much to Will Shortz for teaching us today about the elements of a criminal offense. Our gratitude, as always, goes out to the amazing Philip Glass, who graciously lets us use his music. Talking Feds is a production of Dalito, LLC. I'm Harry Litman, see you next time. 

CONFIRMING AMY... RECUSE, REFUSE... WE LOSE

Harry Litman [00:00:00] Before we get started, I want to do a shout out to a fantastic spanking-new podcast. It is Talking Feds: Women at the Table. We've just started it, there'll be another episode at the end of this week. It features: Juliette Kayyem, Anne Milgram and Melissa Murray. Brilliant, all but really brilliant together. Each week they talk about a topic in the news, but then welcome a guest for a deep-dive of something that's on all of their minds. We really think it's great, we are super excited about it and we hope that you will tune in. Again, it's Talking Feds: Women at the Table with Juliette Kayyem, Anne Milgram and Melissa Murray. OK, here's our episode. 

Harry Litman [00:00:58] Welcome to Talking Feds, a roundtable that brings together prominent former federal officials and special guests for a dynamic discussion of the most important political and legal topics of the day. I'm Harry Litman. Two weeks, a fortnight, a figure with an end point that shifts back and forth like an oasis in a desert, between close enough to see, but an eternity to arrive at. Two weeks until we know, hopefully, whether this three-plus year scourge of corruption, malice, vulgarity, dishonesty and know-nothingness is passing away. The week was dominated by the confirmation hearings for Judge Amy Coney Barrett, a moment on the one hand of astronomical stakes for the country and the court, but on the other, one drained of drama by the certainty of Barrett's confirmation on a narrow and strictly partisan basis. 

She is on track to be confirmed next week in record time, and at record close proximity to the election, which in fact is already well underway. The president has declared himself cured of the virus, though steadfastly refuses to say when he last tested negative, returned to a version of his open air, largely mask-free rallies. Vice President Biden opted for smaller and safer gatherings, and the two had one of the weirder evenings in the history of presidential debates, with simultaneous dueling town halls in which each played to form, and a moderator actually called Trump to account for his lies. Polls continue to be bullish for Biden, who's at double digit leads in swing states and even others that Trump won in 2016. In retrospect, Trump seems to have tumbled after his boorish performance in the first debate and not recovered. 

Republican senators were increasingly emboldened to separate themselves from him, as the risks of a Democratic sweep of the White House and the Senate and House grew increasingly probable. Of course, after the traumatic experience of 2016, Democrats are snake-bit and not putting too much stake in polls. On the other hand, the number of undecided votes this year is much smaller relative to the late going in 2016. Meanwhile, the virus returns to center stage after the few days for Trump of a welcome focus on the Barrett nomination, and it shows no signs of abating. Rates reached their highest points ever in 17 states, and were nowhere on the decline. One more week, in other words, of turmoil, menace, and deep divisions in America. And to unpack all of it, we have a fantastic crew of commentators, all returning guests to Talking Feds. 

And they're sharing in a very special day with us. It's a banner episode because it is number one hundred, Talking Feds. Who'd have thought when we started 18 months ago that we would be posting this big number? But we are, and we are thrilled about it. And we are thrilled also to have with us first: Senator Al Franken. Al Franken currently hosts the Al Franken podcast, one of the most popular podcasts on politics in the country. He served as a United States senator from Minnesota from 2009 to 2018. And his absence was keenly felt this week because he was the best questioner for my money on the Judiciary Committee for nominations to the court. He apparently also had some moderately successful career previously as a writer, comedian and author. Senator Franken, thanks for returning to Talking Feds. 

Al Franken [00:04:47] My pleasure. 

Harry Litman [00:04:48] Bill Kristol: Bill is an American political analyst, a frequent commentator on several networks and an editor-at-large of The Bulwark. He is founder and director of the advocacy organization Defending Democracy Together. He had a rich prior career in government, where he served as chief of staff to the Secretary of Education Bill Bennett, and then to the vice president of the United States, Dan Quayle. And he was the founder and editor-at-large of the leading conservative weekly publication, The Weekly Standard, for many years. 

Bill Kristol [00:05:23] Good to see you. 

Harry Litman [00:05:24] Dahlia Lithwick: Dahlia is a senior editor at Slate, where she writes Supreme Court dispatches and jurisprudence, and where she hosts their excellent Supreme Court podcast, Amicus. In 2018, she won the Hillman Prize for Opinion and Analysis Journalism. The judges described her as the nation's best legal commentator for the last two decades. Dahlia, thanks for joining us again on Talking Feds. 

Dahlia Lithwick [00:05:53] Good to be bacl, thank you for having me. 

Harry Litman [00:05:55] All right. Welcome, everyone. And let's start with the hearings this week for Judge Barrett. They were a strange affair in a way. Barrett obviously was controversial, her appointment will consolidate a hard-right conservative majority that could change the country for decades. But the hyper-partisanship was so baked in that literally no votes were up for grabs, and at one level, there was nothing left to fight about. 

All right. So starting with the Dems, the Democrats chose to make it about Obamacare. And they had an, unusually for them, disciplined message that confirmation of Barrett means loss of preexisting conditions. Smart move, smart rhetorical strategy? And if so, why? 

Al Franken [00:06:38] Yes, I understand why they spent so much time on the ACA, but you could have done that and also pointed out the enormous hypocrisy of this. And also just, there are so many aspects of this, them going like you didn't talk to the president about Roe v. Wade, did you? The Federalist Society short list means they know exactly how she's gonna vote on Roe v. Wade. 

Harry Litman [00:07:02] Well, you had a video of what you would have asked her. You put it out, it's great video. How do you grade them in the Franken standard? 

Al Franken [00:07:09] Listen, I'm not going to mock my former Democratic colleagues, I want to knock my former Republican colleagues, I mean that's a better use of time. 

The hypocrisy here is absolutely friggin amazing. She herself, in an interview right after Scalia died, said, well, this is so different from Justice Kennedy, who was seated during an election year, why she succeeded. Justice Powell said he was retiring in June, the year before. 

Al Franken [00:07:36] This is very, very, very, very different, Merrick Garland, because, my god, there are already votes in the primaries in New Hampshire! You can't possibly, you got to leave this up to the American people, this is terrible!

Harry Litman [00:07:51] You change the balance of the court is what she said in 2015, right?

Al Franken [00:07:54] And then that was the second point she made. She made that point, too, which is, and also very different going from Powell to Kennedy. That's a lateral move. 

Both moderate Republicans. So this is, Scalia died, the staunchest conservative. Whoever Obama picks is going to be the staunchest liberal. And that changes the balance of the court. Yeah. OK, Ginsburg, Coney Barrett. Wow. Every decision went to the progressive side in this last term, Roberts was the deciding vote. So this is completely changing the balance of the court. 

Harry Litman [00:08:29] Well, OK. So Dahlia, this is, I mean, an obvious enough strategy, and they did at some point out the hypocrisy and of course the long term stakes, as Senator Franken says, are profound. This one actually is tenuous, right? They may or may not go down on ACA, but they made a concerted decision not to continually play the hypocracy card, but to lead with Obamacare. Why? And you think it was smart? 

Dahlia Lithwick [00:08:56] They were in a whole bunch of boxes, not least of which is the one you've both identified, which is if you are predicating everything to come on, this is not normal and shouldn't be happening. And then you go ahead and have a totally normal hearing, then you're stuck on the scene. Corey Booker kept saying this isn't normal, this isn't normal. But everyone's there. They've got briefing books and questions. It looks a lot like Kavanaugh, looks like a lot like Gorsuch to me. So I just think that's a sort of existential problem. I don't know what the answer was. I was not in the camp. I'm curious if Al thinks it should have been that, you know, chain yourself to the Senate floor, don't show up boycott. I think they did the best they could do with a situation that was two things at the same time. Tethering themselves to Obamacare, look, they were in a bunch of other boxes. They were set up to be religious bigots. 

And, you know, there's Josh Hawley screaming four seconds into the hearing that if you even say the words Griswold v. Connecticut, you're a bigot. So, you know, like, time and time again, you get these kind of funky traps that actually bear no resemblance to what's going on. You know, you hate women. You just hate women who are mothers. Like this would be the first mother ever on the court if you don't count Sandra Day O'Connor and Ruth Bader Ginsburg. So I think these traps get set, and then rightly or wrongly, Democrats are just like, ok, we're not going to touch religion. We're not going to touch the fact that she wrote this really seismic, controvertial, very voluble, clear article about Catholic judges recusing themselves in death penalty cases. She puts all this into evidence, her entire judicial career on the 7th Circuit, her career as an academic. her personal activism. It's perfectly clear she cannot say what Clarence Thomas did. I've never thought Roe her five seconds in my life because she's got this ample record. And yet I think there was just this fear that to attack that or to probe it or to try to find some way at that was anti-woman and anti-religious and anti, I don't know what all. And so I think the ACA felt safe. 

Harry Litman [00:11:03] Yeah. Bill, what about from the other direction? I mean, you've suggested that maybe go going all in on this actually has future consequences for the Republicans. You get the seat, but maybe at the cost of being reduced to a minority party for the foreseeable future and having the conservative movement discredited, they had their own possibly Faustian bargain to consider. And they had no...they went all in too, do you think that calculation was flawed or debatable? 

Bill Kristol [00:11:38] I mean, they'd been all in on this Faustian bargain for three and a half years and they weren't gonna have ended it here when they have one more, one more good thing to come before the reckoning, assuming there is a reckoning on November 3rd and afterwards. I would say this, I think the hypocracy is unbelievable, honestly. I remember watching in 2016, I was already anti Trump. I was, you know, I wasn't involved much on to say the Garland thing one way or the other, I was kind of amazed that McConnell pulled that off. I just couldn't believe that, frankly, the Obama administration let him get away with murder, and Hillary Clinton wasn't interested in litigating it in the campaign. Well, McConnell was doing, but it was sort of amazing that they succeeded in that. I mean, then, of course, it's even more amazing that they can just shamelessly reverse on it. Having said all that, look, I was, I remember when Justice Ginsburg died and it was era of Rosh Hashanah as I remember, and talking to people the next day. 

I'm not super observant, so I was allowed to make phone calls and stuff, and my and my fellow sort of anti-Trump Republican-ish type world. And we thought, you know, look, it's not 2018 again, and people have overstated how much Kavanaugh helped sit Republicans and only helped in red  states and some Senate races if it did, blah blah blah. Having said all that, it was a wild card. One of the few things that seems like it might conceivably change the dynamics of the presidential campaign. And if you think Trump is an existential threat and Biden has to win, it didn't change it. You know what, she'll probably be confirmed, but the gap is wider now than it was on September 23rd or whatever date that was that Justice Ginsburg passed away. And and so in that respect, I'm sort of willing to give the Democrats a fairly generous pass in terms of their tactics of strategy. The ACA thing, I thought they overdid a little. It's a little ridiculous, honestly. And the truth is, A, they're not going to find, I don't believe, that it's not severable.

I'm not a legal expert on this, but and B, if they did, they just repass ACA once they have a Democratic majority, and even if they don't have Democrat majority the Senate, given that it's become quite popular. So that was the least of the problems. But it was fine, I mean look, it helped them highlight the health care issue, which is a good issue for Biden, I think Roe hurts actually Republicans quite a lot too, they're a little scared of it because it is a contentious issue. I made it also generates a certain amount of Republican loyalty to perhaps to Trump, but it also gets into the religious allegedly kind of discrimination issue and so forth. So they might have in subtler ways, they could have handled it. The one thing I would say, and this is just my own view, I could be totally wrong. I don't believe that this is an epical moment in the history of the court, that the court is going to be wildly, if there will be differences in some key areas. But I don't actually think that the current six justices are going, if, assuming she's confirmed, are going to be a reliable six or even five votes to overturn Roe. 

They're certainly not going to be five votes to overturn same sex marriage. It's not clear to me that Roberts couldn't pick up another person at some of those five to four decisions. I don't even know about her, I mean sure there's some issue she seems to feel deeply about. But there are others, if you read what she has written, it's not obvious to me that she'll go quite as sort of unequivocally in one direction and at the end of the day, they do kind of follow the election returns, that if there's a Democratic president, a Democratic Congress, honestly, a lot of these things are statutory interpretation and they could overturn them. So I'm a little, I'm not actually that liberal on this. I'm not the best person to speak to this issue. But I think this may be a little too much despondency that somehow 40 years of American jurisprudence is now set because there's, she has joined the Supreme Court. I don't mean to minimize liberal concerns about particular decisions and issues. I just think that's a little less obvious than people think. 

Harry Litman [00:14:58] What about that? 

Al Franken [00:14:59] I have some very strong feelings about this. One, you can do both. ACA, nine of the members of that committee, Republican members, have filed amicus briefs. So don't say that this isn't in jeopardy of being overturned. Secondly, this is why we won in 2018, this is why we picked up 41 seats. 

You can do both. You can do both ACA and punish them. Make them pay the price on this hypocrisy, and say that the voters of South Carolina, the voters of North Carolina, the voters of Iowa, the voters of Texas, the voters of Georgia, the voters of Colorado, the voters of Montana, of Arizona, of Maine, are looking at this and saying this is so hypocritical. And the other thing is what the Republicans, it was nauseating what they were doing, when he pledged to only take from the short list of the Federalist Society and the Heritage Foundation. Those are one hundred percenters. She's going to vote to get rid of Roe.

Dahlia Lithwick [00:16:00] Loathe, though I am to be more freaked out than Al, I think I'm actually more freaked out than Al. Some of the stuff we didn't tweak into nearly enough. First of all, she's been pretty clear that she aligns herself with Clarence Thomas in terms of how she views precedent and stare decisis. She wrote about this. She was quite open, and I think it's a longer conversation, but I think that the fact that she wouldn't even say Griswold was super precedent, John Roberts said that. She said this litmus test that I thought was staggering, which is it's as long as it's unsettled in the public eye, it's not super precedent. And by the way, she has herself at the 7th Circuit, been working very hard to unsettle prongs of Casey. Right. Parental notification. 

So she's actually part of the machine that unsettles things, so that then she can say it's super precedent. I think that's worrying. The other just completely pedantic, but I think nontrivial thing is there are things that you know about dismantling the regulatory state, about the administrative state, about chevron deference, about non delegation, all this dorky, dorky stuff that has to do with rolling back federal regulatory agencies. She did not say a single thing that made me feel good about any of that. And if that is like let's just remember, Neil Gorsuch is now the swing voter on the Supreme Court, and that is his M.O. is to get rid of the regulatory state. So I think in some sense, just setting the aperture at Roe and the ACA, the failure to see what happens to the EPA and the CDC and other entities that we like to believe, particularly in a pandemic, might matter. I think that that's a non-trivial consequence of what is going to be a six-three majority. And I think that there are six votes for a lot of that very boring stuff that goes under the radar that I think is coming. 

Bill Kristol [00:17:58] I don't disagree. It may well be the case. I also would say that would be 1937. There would be a huge political reaction. And I do believe ultimately that the Democrats would increase the size of the court and do other things in terms of jurisdiction. And there are many more things they can do than people realize rather little of the Supreme Court is constitutional, a lot of it is statutory. And I think there'll be a lot of support for doing it. I think we finally have to wait for these things to happen. So they can't just sort of presume that what you say is going to happen. Now, is it healthy for American politics in five or 10 years where we're going to have a Democratic legislature ratcheting back jurisdictional and other authorities of the Supreme Court and so forth? Maybe not. But I do think that would honestly happen. I don't think the public will be in the mood to let major changes of the kind Dahlia's mentioning happen. 

Harry Litman [00:18:44] I want to return to her in a minute. But I just want to ask you, Bill. There is this view, Al expressed it well, it's a kind of almost conspiracy theory on the left that really holds this as the triumphant moment for Leonard Leo and the Federalist Society in a 40 year plan. Do you sort of see it that way? Do you see them triumphant and calling the shots to the extent that everybody on the left seems to? 

Bill Kristol [00:19:10] Yes, because Trump outsourced the selection to The Federalist Society in a way that obviously mattered some to George W. Bush and so forth. But it wasn't anything like this. So, yes, no. The only flipside, I guess this is my job this year, is to give the vaguely upside, which I think it's bad. I think it's bad. My role, my role. I think it's bad. I want to say this. I would say I felt like, I didn't watch that much of the hearings, but it had a little bit of a, you know. I'm old enough to remember when originalism, textualism, whatever you want, incidentally, one of the amusing things, Dahlia mentioned super precedents like, what's the original justification for that? 

I love the way they pick up everything they like that's from very contemporary, not unintelligent, incidentally, kind of jurisprudential debates. That's a reasonable thing. I think, actually, but it has no basis in anything, right? Originalist, textualist or anything else-ist. And then that's sort of now part of the canon just because it's convenient to them in this case. But I had the feeling just watching all that it was sort of the last gasp. It's both the height of the power and the last gasp of originalism, textualism, all that. I mean it was so, the doctrines become so desiccated and formulaic and stultified. I mean, I do remember Bork and Scalia and Ralph Winter, and they were many very intelligent people who were in different modes of rebellion against the war in court and against the early Burger court and against whatever progressive jurisprudence, let's say. 

And a lot of it is stimulating and interesting, and now it's just, it's almost become a parody of itself, when she refused to answer anything and so forth. And that, incidentally, if we could ever get away from that, that would be healthy. Could we actually have a discussion of what jurisprudential principles would govern people's behavior on the bench, I guess, which is never gonna get back to the head? I mean, you look back at the old hearings and people actually, they didn't resolve individual cases, but they did discuss intelligent things in an intelligent and informative way. 

Harry Litman [00:20:56] She actually said something very interesting here, but the academy will debate it. She talked in a way Scalia didn't. There's been this bromide out there that if you're an originalist, it cuts one way. She first said, no, there are different kinds of originalists, and then she asserted that there are liberal originalists and they are defined by those who define the terms to actually analyze in a broader, more general way. That's an interesting but very debatable proposition. But I want to just quickly put my vote in with Dahlia's, I mean, I think that there is a real problem here and it may or may not be, Bill, 1937, some things really happened, but I think five of these people have been carefully curated because they haven't necessarily tacked that way, but they are very self-consciously in a very narrow sliver. I've been to the Federalist Society, you have too, and there's a very much a sort of dynamic of who's more conservative, etc. and everything about her is just the perfect pedigree. And I think in terms of the decades to come, and especially on the constitutional level with free exercise and the like, it is sort of cataclysmic. 

Dahlia Lithwick [00:22:07] I think both Al and Bill talked for a minute about the Federalist Society, and I just want to put in the bucket of things that I am freaked out about, that if you track what Leonard Leo and Carrie Severino and the other folks from that sort of dark money network that Sheldon Whitehouse laid out. 

Harry Litman [00:22:27] He did a great job in that, didn't he? 

Dahlia Lithwick [00:22:29] He did. That was a master class and kind of got, you know, poo-pooed by Ted Cruz as like Homeland-type, stringboard conspiracy theory. But I just want to, like I think this is actually really important. The effort that Carrie Severino and Leonard Leo have turned to this spring is this Orwellian honest elections project that is like hundreds and thousands of dollars into voter suppression all over the country. They're the ones who are behind these like efforts to purge the rolls in Florida and Michigan. And I just want to point out that there is something under the radar that's both kind of laugh out loud, funny and also quite terrifying about the juggernaut that has seated all these FedSoc people on the federal bench. 

Literally, they're now purging voter rolls and they're spending like craptons of money to put ads on the airwaves that say that all mail in ballots are fraudulent. 

And I just feel like as metaphors go, the idea that the hill that Leonard Leo now wants to die on is vote suppression going into 2020 is just, it's it's beautiful. It just makes Bill's point about this is like the death rattle, right? If they can't, having captured the courts, they're not confident that they have six votes in Bush v. Gore 2.0 and therefore they have to suppress voting in Michigan. That's like batshit crazy. 

Al Franken [00:23:58] Even more than that, Amy Klobuchar asked her, is voter intimidation illegal? And she said, I don't know. Man. I talked to Amy and I said, like, tomorrow you should start with look. Yesterday, I asked you if voter intimidation was illegal and you didn't know. And it is, by statute it's illegal. But I'm going to make it a little easier today. How about grand theft auto? 

Is grand theft auto...like is that illegal? There's so much to talk about here. She wouldn't answer about climate change. So basically what she was saying is, well, if it comes up whether the EPA can regulate CO2, then I know that 97 percent of climate scientists say there's climate change, and that the three percent who don't work for the oil and gas industry. But when it finally comes to us, what I'm going to do is independently do all the research into climate myself. Maybe my clerks too, and make a determination about whether climate change actually exists. That's what she was saying. She couldn't say yes. 

Harry Litman [00:25:15] Yeah. I mean, that is the dynamic. Normally, a controversial nominee would have to give a little ground. And she was, but everything was so set in stone. She knew she didn't have to.

Al Franken [00:25:27] But Harry, I do want to speak to what we're talking about in this conversation, which is what what happened in that hearing. And my contention is that they could have done all of this. They could have done the ACA. They could have done the hypocrisy. They could have done Federalist Society. They could have done all of this. But they didn't. And I don't know why. I don't know why. And someone should have been pointing at those senators on, the Republican senators and calling them out and quoting them and saying, look, I'm gonna call you a lying hypocrite. And you know what, you can hold me to it. Save the tape. 

Harry Litman [00:26:04] All right, close out question. Biden says yesterday after she's confirmed, but before the election, he is going to address the court packing question, something he'd avoided and seems like a political trap for him to address now. So why, and which way do you see him going? 

Bill Kristol [00:26:25] I think he'll take the view that he didn't want to address it until they actually rammed, completed the hypocrisy of the act. There's not just a partial act of hypocrisy. And they rammed her through and then he will, I assume, say something. Look, I've always been against it. I remain, I would prefer that we don't have to do it, but we'll have to see how she rules and how the court rules. I do think they need to wait for something to happen. It can't be prospective, I would say. I mean, I could justify it intellectually on just on the hypocrisy grounds. We need something so John Hickenlooper can say, you know what, we really do need to do this much as I reluctantly want to, they do need to get 51 votes. Yeah, I think that's what he'll say. I don't know. He's done a pretty good job of ducking it, again it's not intellectually very satisfying, but he's probably avoided problems by avoiding. He could have done it more elegantly, but I don't begrudge him not taking a hard position on it. 

Dahlia Lithwick [00:27:13] Why would you try to force Joe Biden to, like, take himself hostage? It makes zero sense. 

Harry Litman [00:27:19] I totally agree. 

Dahlia Lithwick [00:27:21] It seems to me is to pledge to do the insane nihilist thing in the future that justifies the nihilism we have exhibited for the last four years. Like that is the only purpose of that. Why don't you make it worth my while by promising to do the thing that makes all of my reckless norm-shattering today seem OK? Why would he answer that? 

I think the answer is because there's a lot of progressives who are very mad and who feel like we've lost absolute-freaking-lutely everything, and it's minority rule forevermore. And they want a pledge that something's going to be done. But again, I think Bill is right. Why commit to court packing when you can commit to jurisdiction stripping? You can commit to term limit. There's a hundred plans out there. 

Harry Litman [00:28:06] Why do it before the elections, which seems crazy. And the waiting point, Bill, I see your point, but the earliest that's going to be is a couple of bad decisions next June. You know, the air'll be out of the tires, I think. But I agree with you Dahlia, it seems like he's got to be doing a nod in the direction of the people who are so angry about it, yet he really gives a card to the other side if he talks about that now. I just don't see why he's not waiting. 

Dahlia Lithwick [00:28:32] He's also, don't forget, the switch in time that saved nine, he's signaling to John Roberts. 

Harry Litman [00:28:38] To John Roberts, I see. Or to Gorsuch or whatever. 

Bill Kristol [00:28:41] He held off, partly to his credit, I'd say he was trying not to weaken the Senate Democrats by holding it out, by refusing to rule it out, which would certainly be his instinct two, three weeks ago. And I agree that even now it's good to hold it out there as something over Roberts and Gorsuch, and even Kavanaugh, and in certain ways she could be maybe not on the issues that get closest to her to religious freedom. But there are a heck of a lot of these administrative issues that she has no particular track record on. 

Harry Litman [00:29:05] It's now time to take a moment for our Sidebar feature, which explains some of the terms and relationships that are foundational to events that we read about in the news. We're going to be talking today about the RICO law, something you've heard a lot about perhaps, but haven't had fully explained. It's a very special law that the United States government uses to go after criminal organizations and to tell us about it we have Gavin Hood. Gavin Hood is a South African filmmaker, screenwriter, producer and actor whom you may recognize from Ender's Game, Eye in the Sky, X-Men Origins: Wolverine and Tsotsi, which won an Academy Award for best foreign language film. Here's Gavin Hood talking about the RICO Act. 

Gavin Hood [00:29:56] What is RICO, R I C O? RICO is the popular name for the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations provisions of the Organized Crime Act of 1970. RICO is a tool used by prosecutors to go after criminal organizations. The impetus for passing RICO was that organized crime often took over legitimate businesses like laundromats, restaurants and unions and used them to further criminal activities. Worse, the business gave it a built in defense to criminal liability. They could claim to be the owners of legitimate businesses and avoid prosecution. While RICO was created to target the mafia, its use has now grown well beyond traditional mob activities. 

RICO makes it against the law to acquire an enterprise through a pattern of racketeering or its proceeds, or run an enterprise engaged in a pattern of racketeering activities. Enterprise is simple: it just means any individual or group of people. It can be a legitimate business or a criminal organization. The organization can be anything from a typical stratified mob business to a loosely affiliated street gang. A pattern of racketeering activities means two or more activities from a list of crimes that Congress specified in the law, such as gambling, murder or extortion. RICO has a broad reach; if you use the money you made from loan sharking or drug trafficking to go straight and you open a restaurant, you are in violation of RICO. 

The same is true if you extort or physically threaten the owners of a laundromat to put you in control. Running or helping to run a criminal enterprise engaged in racketeering like a gang or drug cartel is a violation of RICO, but so is causing an otherwise legitimate organization or government body to commit racketeering. For example, a police unit that engages in a pattern of false arrests and evidence planting. The feds have even used RICO in some cases to go after loose affiliations that don't look at all like traditional organized crime. For example, in the Kids for Cash case, a private detention center paid kickbacks to two Pennsylvania judges to sentence juveniles there. The judges were charged with racketeering, among other crimes, and sentenced to nearly 20 and 30 years, respectively. For Talking Feds, I'm Gavin Hood. 

Harry Litman [00:32:16] Thank you very much, Gavin Hood. Gavin is currently working on a film adaptation of The Test, a thriller starring John Boyega. 

Hey, before we reconvene, I just wanted to take a moment to do a quick shout out for the podcast Daily Beans brought to you by the same people who brought you Mueller, She Wrote. For all the daily relevant news in a digestible format, check out the Daily Beans podcast. They have guests like Mary Trump, Andy McCabe, Frank Figliuzzi, a lot of former U.S. attorneys, I can vouch for that, having been one myself. You can subscribe to the Daily Beans and listen every weekday morning, wherever you get your podcasts. 

Harry Litman [00:34:02] Let's take up the sort of week on the campaign trail and especially these sort of dueling town halls. There was this very, you know, almost a metaphor for like the ravine between Trump supporters and the country. He refused a virtual town hall, but then he did this. It was better for somebody and worse for somebody, to do these simultaneous but separate town halls. Who made the better strategic choice here? 

Al Franken [00:34:27] Well, it probably helped Trump because he didn't look as ridiculous in comparison to Biden as he would have if they did it together. That's all I can say. I watched Trump, I don't know if anyone listened to his health care answer. It was hilarious. 

Harry Litman [00:34:45] When he got asked actually by an audience member. 

Al Franken [00:34:47] Yes, because it was so contentless and clueless. He knows nothing. Nothing. Nothing. But all he said was, and he repeated it like three times in this one little answer, which is well we got rid of the mandate, which was, you know, the worst part. Really? That's the worst part for you? No. 

And, and then why are you trying to get rid of it? He basically said my plan, which, by the way, like eight weeks ago or nine weeks ago, he said he was gonna release a plan in two weeks, he's had four years to release a plan! No Republican plan has ever fully protected people with preexisting conditions. 

Harry Litman [00:35:27] He had it pretty rough, I mean Savannah Guthrie held his feet to the fire more than anybody I've seen. You're not like someone's crazy uncle who can just retweet whatever. And he actually seemed a little rattled to me at points. So, yeah, I think it's a bad night for him, for one, because he's got very few occasions left to do anything dramatic. And this was, I think, not being onstage with him kind of tailor made for not much happening. 

Dahlia Lithwick [00:35:54] I guess I would just say that I'm full of confessions today. But as a longtime watcher of reality shows, I will not lie. And also, I had like a colicky kid during The Apprentice, so, like, really did, like, lean hard into The Apprentice for a couple of seasons. But I think that when I think about who always gets cut, like in the first three weeks, it's like the petulant guy and then the paranoid guy, and then the crazy guy. Like, they, like he's got nothing else. He's just got petulant, paranoid, crazy with a side of lying. Like I, it's just hard to imagine a whole lot of undecided voters saying, you know, I didn't like the petulance and the crazy, but it's really growing on me, you know, three weeks before the election. And I guess I just find it, it's so tedious. And I realize that there are millions of people who think he walked on water. And so they probably thought yesterday was a tour de force. But, wow, you know, you feel like you could write his responses because you've heard them 200 times. I always think that boringness is what kills those shows, and it's just it's so boring. 

Al Franken [00:37:05] He made the right move because if he had done it with Biden, he would just look bad. And also people would have watched it. 

Bill Kristol [00:37:12] I think that's important. I mean, Biden's ahead. It was another day gone by, another possible moment where things could have changed a little bit and nothing changed in the race. I mean, I don't think any swing voters were paying very much attention, I didn't watch it. I just saw some highlights and followed it on Twitter since I was watching the Dodgers fail to give Clayton Kershaw support again. Yes. And terrible. Then I watched a little of the Met opera livestream, which was free, which was excellent. 

Harry Litman [00:37:36] That is a fantastic program. I can't believe it. 

Bill Kristol [00:37:37] Well it's free, it's great.

Dahlia Lithwick [00:37:40] This is, by definition, highbrow. 

Bill Kristol [00:37:41] So you can go back and forth, everyone else is going back and forth between Trump and Biden, I was going back and forth between the opera and baseball. Which is high though, really. 

Biden keeps doing a little better than people think. I've got to say, he's just been underestimated throughout. And I did see some of the answers and stuff, they're pretty good. I mean, you know, you may not agree with every little thing. But he was coherent. 

Harry Litman [00:38:05] Well, more than that, he seemed self-consciously kind of low-key and contemplative to me. I wonder if that was just him because Trump wasn't around. You think that everything must be sculpted by the campaign? He seemed really to try to be Mr. Reassuring, Mr. Rogers sweater. 

Bill Kristol [00:38:23] That was a highlight, particularly idiotic Trump campaign spokesman attacks him for being like Mr. Rogers, who's like, you know... 

Harry Litman [00:38:32] I'm from western Pennsylvania, I love that. 

Bill Kristol [00:38:34] Is I really an intelligent campaign tactic? I don't know. 

Al Franken [00:38:37] He was that way because it's such a contrast to the people that everybody now is so concerned about being so off the rails. 

Harry Litman [00:38:47] Histrionic, yeah.

Al Franken [00:38:48] It's a perfect thing for him to be avuncular and to be empathetic and to be substantive. 

Harry Litman [00:38:56] You know, it's interesting. I mean, we'll see. And I don't want to get ahead of myself, but there are ways where if you listen to him. He actually is laying down tracks for being more than just kind of old dude steward of the government, but being pretty darn progressive at the same time as he's basically a sort of conservative, traditional figure. But I wonder how ambitious if it comes to it. 

I wanted to talk a little bit because it's you know, it just seems like in the last week or two, they just from this sort of stage motions of the Republicans themselves, there's a real growing sense that the Senate is going or gone, which would be, of course, the hugest development. Do you have that sense, too, that this is what the Republicans even are thinking? And what's your feel now for where we are in the overall Senate race, where I think the Dems have 12 to defend, with Republicans 23, and they've got a lot that are in real danger, apparently. 

Dahlia Lithwick [00:39:58] And fundraising, right? Crazy, crazy eye-popping fundraising. But like what what is Sarah Gideon going to do in Maine with kaffillion dollars, like the war chests are not. 

Harry Litman [00:40:09] It's a lot of lobster roll. 

Dahlia Lithwick [00:40:10] Yeah, it's crazy. 

Bill Kristol [00:40:12] I mean, if you're at a +10 nationally, let's say they are to eight or something, that's, in a presidential year, there's not a lot of history of people in you know, you have to be you have to have a very comfortable margin to hold on to your Senate seat or be in a very red state. 

So if, you know, this is where I think they really are close to at a tipping point in several states now, and you could have a lot of Democratic pickups, I think. And the money is pretty unbelievable, and they have some good candidates, honestly. From what I've, what's amazing is I talked to still a few Republicans are sort of friendly to Trump, some donor types and all, and we've got to double down. 

Trump's gone. He's hopeless, that's hopeless. But we've got to double down or hold the Republican Senate, like, really? Why do you want to do that? Well, it's gonna stop Biden from doing all these horrible things. But what's interesting is people have even lost sight of the most elementary self interests. I mean, what is the cliche of American politics, interest group politics, right? If you're a wealthy business type, you want have friends at both parties. You want to  have friends in the Biden administration. You want to have John Hickenlooper take your phone calls or Bulloch from Montana or Mark Kelly from Arizona, all of whom are moderate Democrats. And in the old days, in a way, the left always hated this about American politics, and the right did, too, in a funny way.

But I mean, which is, you know, this self-interest and you have friends in both parties. People have so become so hyperpolarized and so insane almost, that they don't even understand that they should be giving money to Bullock in Montana so that they will be able to call him up and say, hey, you know, I know you have to raise my taxes a little bit, but don't do it too far. You know, whatever, whatever you do, if you're a rich guy in the Biden administration, they're so insanely polarized. 

Harry Litman [00:41:46] Yeah, I know. It'll be interesting if the culture has so changed that that even if a sane person is in there, that tradition of bipartisanship is no more. Al, how are you? You must have all kinds of friends who are running. Are they secretly chuffed? 

Al Franken [00:42:01] Are they secretly what? 

Harry Litman [00:42:02] Chuffed. You haven't heard of the word chuffed? Is that, it's too old or too young for him? 

Dahlia Lithwick [00:42:04] It's very British, British.

Harry Litman [00:42:07] Oh, it's too British. 

Al Franken [00:42:08] I'm from Minnesota, y'know. 

Harry Litman [00:42:11] How you feeling about the prospect of Mitch McConnell being gone? 

Al Franken [00:42:15] I think it's very likely or fairly likely he won't be majority leader, which will be very good. I don't think it's likely he gets defeated. He's always seems to pull these out. But I think the voter suppression is more about the Senate now. I mean if they can, cause those'll be closer, presumably, and maybe voter suppression will provide the winning margin for Lindsay or Tillis or Georgia races or in Mississippi? Look, [unintelligible] has Texas, and boy, look at what the governor there is doing. 

Bill Kristol [00:42:49] Isn't that unbelievable? That is the most flatout voter suppression, at least the voter I.D. stuff and all, there was like a semi-plausible. Okay, you should show your driver's license, it's not the end of the world. We do it in Virginia, we don't know voter, you know. But that sounded at least like it was not totally out of the realm of this is literally just making it harder for Democrats to vote. Period. There was zero. I looked into this a little bit cause I wondered, what are they even pretending? 

And incidentally, this where I take Dahlia's point about the courts. I mean, that appellate decision there in Texas, that just seemed nuts to me. And that was like three Trump appointees, two of whom were in appellate seats that had been held open by McConnell and not filled by Obama. Right. So that is where you do have I take your these sort of apocalyptic view of what the federal courts could do over the next 10, 20, 30 years. 

Harry Litman [00:43:37] I just saw a study, and I meant to go back because it's from a democratic interest group, but it's suggesting that 90 percent of the rulings in this season of flurries of stays and whatever by Trump appointed judges have been, quote unquote, in favor of vote suppression. If there's a methodical analysis of that, it could be pretty worrisome. 

Dahlia Lithwick [00:43:58] I hate to let anyone have just the tiniest filament of hope, but I would just add, I think if you look at John Roberts, the sort of newly liberated centrist John Roberts, the one issue on which he is just horrifying is voting from Shelby County on in. This is not an issue where he is in play. And I think if you want to be freaked out, in addition to the stuff that Bill just said, these panels of judges who are making decisions about crazy, you know, signature match stuff, COVID voting, just bonkers, bonkers attempts in the states. And I think that a lot of these are getting resolved on the shadow docket, stuff is not getting briefed at the court. The courts census decision this week, like sorry about your hundreds of pages of findings of fact, but we're just going to say nah. If you want to talk about anti-democratic impulses, the fact that these are not being briefed and litigated, that they're just like, oh, Purcell principle, can't change elections before elections. Everybody go home. I think that stuff is really chilling, and it goes to Al's point about the Senate, that I think it's not going to be necessarily people from militias terrorizing voters in Philadelphia, much as Trump is calling for that. I think it's just these systemic judicial insertions of themselves into this time and time again without briefing or finding of fact that stuff is really happening. 

Harry Litman [00:45:24] This is a huge story. And just two quick points about Roberts. The first, Al says he's the five four for every pro-liberal, he's also the five four for every single conservative one, which outnumber them. And then second, to the extent you see him as wanting to be statesman-like, you could imagine his going over now to the Republican side to make something be six three and look a little bit better. That's in addition to his instincts where it's raw political power. 

You know, I worked with him in the Department of Justice. He's a, you know, his roots are conservative. All right. We just have a couple of minutes for our final feature of Five Words or Fewer, where we take a question from a listener and each of us has to answer in Five Words or Fewer. 

And today's, I'm going to go with the one from Adam Molaskey, because that's what we've most been talking about:

How many justices will there be on the Supreme Court in 2022? Anybody? 

Bill Kristol [00:46:23] Probably nine. 

Al Franken [00:46:24] Either eleven or nine 

Harry Litman [00:46:28] Four words, yeah. Dahlia? 

Dahlia Lithwick [00:46:29] Nine or twenty seven. 

Harry Litman [00:46:30] Exactly. I'm going with nine. 

All right. That's all we've got time for. Thank you very much to Senator Franken, Bill, and Dahlia. And thank you very much, listeners, for tuning into Talking Feds. If you like what you've heard, please tell a friend to subscribe to us on Apple Podcasts or wherever they get their podcasts, and please take a moment to rate and review this podcast. You can follow us on Twitter @TalkingFedsPod to find out about future episodes and other Feds-related content. You can check us out on the web, talkingfeds.com , where we have full episode transcripts. And you can look to see our latest offerings on Patreon, where we post discussions about special topics exclusively for supporters. And these aren't outtakes or ad-free episodes, though we do have them there, but really original one-on-one discussions with national experts. 

Just recently, we've posted a long discussion with Pennsylvania A.G. Joshua Shapiro, or Michael Schmidt about his new book, or Sam Vinograd about whether TikTok is going to be regulated out of existence, or David Post about talking opera with Ruth Bader Ginsburg. And we have coming very soon, a book discussion with Peter Strzok about his new book, Compromise, and a discussion with Philip Halpern, who quit the department and wrote an op-ed about it that's been making the rounds as a means of protest for the stewardship of Bill Barr. So there's a lot of great stuff there and you can go look at it to see what it is, and then decide if you'd like to subscribe. 

Submit your questions to questions@talkingfeds.com , whether it's for Five Words or Fewer or general questions about the inner workings of the legal system for our Sidebar segments. Thanks for tuning in, and don't worry: as long as you need answers, the Feds will keep talking. Talking Feds is produced by Jennifer Bassett and Rebecca Lowe Patton. Our editor is Justin. Right. David Lieberman and Rosie Don Griffin are our contributing writers. Production Assistance by Matt McArdle. Our consulting producer is Andrea Carla Michaels. Thanks very much to director Gavin Hood for explaining the RICO law to us. Our gratitude, as always, goes to the amazing Philip Glass, who graciously lets us use his music. Talking Feds is a production of Dalito, LLC. I'm Harry Litman, see you next time.

TREASONABLE DOUBT

[00:00:00] Harry Litman Hey, everybody, Harry here. Before we start today's episode, I wanted to give a quick nod to our sponsor, the California Fair Political Practices Commission. Would you like to know who's behind all the political ads you see? The FPPC can help. California's Fair Political Practices Commission is the state's political watchdog agency, and its new public service campaign will help you become a more informed voter. Visit fppc.ca.gov/learn/2020-election.html

I better say that again, fppc.cal.gov/learn/2020-election.html , got it?

To find a one stop page with the tools you can use to look for the money paying for campaigns and political advertising. You'll learn where and how to track the money going into campaigns, who's paying for the political advertising you see on television or social media that you hear on the radio or that you find in your mailbox. You have a right to know, and the FPPC is there to help. It's information you need to know to make informed decisions and to be a better educated voter. Be sure to visit. Yep. Here we go: fppc.ca.gov/learn/2020-election.html , that’s fppc.ca.gov/learn/2020-election.html , for more information about the FPPC and the coming election. 

[00:02:02] Welcome to Talking Feds, a roundtable that brings together prominent former federal officials and special guests for a dynamic discussion of the most important political and legal topics of the day. I'm Harry Litman. 

What would be the most memorable picture from another breathless week, one in which the news flashes arrived, and shortly after gave way to the next bombshell, all like a fireworks display? Would it be President Trump in his Mussolini moment, strutting on the balcony following his return from Walter Reed, not quite able to suppress his labored breathing? Maybe Vice President Pence and Kamala Harris twelve feet apart and separated by plexiglass panels during their debate, or perhaps the mug shots of 13 lowlifes for Michigan, who helped plot to kidnap Governor Whitmer and put her on trial for treason? The president returned to the White House with good tidings for the country, that the virus is nothing to fear and easily cured with medicines that everyone will get for free and that leave you feeling 20 years younger. 

This, at a time when there are 30 known cases of the virus in the White House alone, and the number of cases per day in the country as a whole has increased by more than 25 percent in the last few weeks. In his few days back, in addition to some tweets and call-in interviews to Fox News, Trump has announced that he will not participate in a virtual debate with Joe Biden next week, and that he is pulling the plug on negotiations for stimulus relief that his fed chair and nearly all economic experts say we need acutely. 

Meanwhile, in the wake of his boorish performance in the first debate, Trump has slipped to double digit deficits in the polls amid signs that Mitch McConnell and the party faithful are beginning to plan for a period in exile. The ghost of Rod Rosenstein visited the country with the revelation that he had been the driving force in DOJ’s insistence on a zero tolerance policy of its arrest of migrant families, no matter how young the children, including nursing infants. Meanwhile, the present day Department of Justice announced an amendment to its longstanding policy on interference in elections that seemed designed to dovetail with the president's strategy of hoping he’s ahead on November 3rd and can then resist the counting of remaining ballots on the grounds that they are fraudulent. 

And Bill Barr quietly announced that there would be no Durham report before the election, and it seemed as if the air had completely leaked out of the tires of the Republican strategy to relitigate in 2020, the 2016 investigation of the Trump campaign and Russia. And finally, the week ended on the horrifying note of the news about the planned kidnap of Governor Wittmer, whom Trump proceeded to tweet, quote, ‘has done a terrible job.’ And all of this is not even to mention the first week of the Supreme Court term, the vice presidential debate, Biden's house divided Gettysburg's speech, and much more. To make sense of another whirlwind week of developments as the country's pace leading into the election seems to accelerate, we have a fantastic set of prominent commentators. They are:

Laura Jarrett, the co-anchor of CNN's Early Start with Christine Romans. Previously, she was a correspondent based in Washington covering the Justice Department and before that, a practicing lawyer in Chicago, Illinois. Welcome back to Talking Feds, Laura. 

[00:05:29] Laura Jarrett Thanks so much, Harry. Always love doing this. 

[00:05:31] Harry Litman Michael Steele, his first visit to Talking Feds, known to everyone (of this podcast nevertheless), he's a political commentator, attorney and former chair of the RNC. He served as the seventh lieutenant governor of Maryland from 2003 to 2011. And for the last four years, he's been a regular columnist for online magazine The Root, and a political analyst for MSNBC. Welcome, Mr. Chairman, to Talking Feds. 

[00:05:59] Michael Steele It's great to be with you, Harry. For sure. 

[00:06:01] Harry Litman And Steve Vladeck, an extremely good friend already to the show. And my go to colleague for discussing legal issues, Steve’s the Charles Allen Right chair in federal courts at the University of Texas School of Law, and an active litigant in cases around the country, including this week in the Texas Supreme Court. He's also the co-host of the popular and excellent National Security Law podcast. Welcome back to Talking Feds, Steve. 

[00:06:26] Steve Vladeck Thanks, Harry.

[00:06:28] Harry Litman Alright, let's begin with the president's return to the White House. And I'd like to frame first a kind of general question. We have this president who often takes counter-intuitive action and the commentary that says, oh, he knows what he's doing, he's playing to the base etcetera, but he is way behind in a race with weeks to go and dwindling opportunity to make up ground. Yet this week alone, he said he'd boycott the debate next week. He canceled stimulus negotiations. One of the few opportunities to make up any ground in a race in which he is distinctly behind. What is the story about here? Is he crazy like a fox? Or is he actually being counter productive in his conduct? 

[00:07:13] Michael Steele I think what you're looking at is a bifurcated campaign. One is the campaign that Donald Trump wants to run, and the other is the campaign that his actual campaign is trying to run. And the reality of it is they are caught, both parties are caught in this vortex. The numbers every day are turning against the president. They're turning in a way that makes it harder and harder to overcome the inevitable outcome, which is the president will lose. And I'm not saying that is a fact. We don't know, votes are still just underway in many states and have been in place for a number of other states. Some five million Americans have already voted to this point this week and there's still a lot more ground to cover. But the reality of it is, I think for a lot of voters, it doesn't matter at this point which campaign is run on the Trump side of the equation. The president right now, even as recently as this conversation is talking about, oh, I'm going to have a physical exam on national television 

[00:08:16] Harry Litman Right, in front of everybody, kind of like a world wide wrestling event. 

[00:08:22] Michael Steele Right. Like we're actually going to believe this. And any doctor, quite honestly, who would participate in that, is a quack. I'm sorry. This is the same people who don't want to tell us when the president had his last negative test because of, quote, HIPAA regulations. Right. But I'm willing to put the president on national television for a physical exam. So folks understand what's happening here, I think a lot of Americans do. And so we'll see over the next three weeks how much of this gets baked in to move the numbers in favor of the president. I just don't see it happening. In fact, I think after the first debate, I think, folks had kind of made up their minds with respect to where this was going. The numbers are now showing that. And I think if this stunt takes place with the, with the doctors up, no one can look at this and go, yeah, this guy should be president. — 

[00:09:11] Laura Jarrett The problem is that some of these stunts end up hurting other people. I agree with Michael that so much of this, we've seen this week has to be for show, right? The bravado to be climbing the South Portico and then get up there on the balcony and rip off the mask. So much of this we sort of sort of dismiss as made for TV, reality TV moments, but all I could help but think about is he goes back in there without a mask. What about all of the butlers, the valets, the housekeepers, people who are changing his coronavirus laden sheets? Those are the ones who get hurt. And we don't pay as much focus, I think, on that. And now they're talking, at least ABC is reporting about having an event at the White House again in person, even if it's outside. We know that the event for Judge Barrett became, in effect, a super spreader event, even if it was outside. And even if people you know, I didn't see too many masks, but even if a few people were wearing a mask, clearly shows this is not a safe environment. And so all of this show and bravado and everything he's doing sort of gets dismissed as silly season, except that people are actually getting hurt. 

[00:10:24] Steve Vladeck I agree with everything Michael and Laura said, I do think that the trend is clearly against the president if all the votes are counted, and I think we really need to take into account just how much Republicans in every state that might matter are going to court, are doing everything they can to count as few votes as possible. And I don't mean to sort of litigate their legal arguments here, some are more convincing than others but we've had a rash of decisions already this week about potential late arriving absentee ballots. My fervent hope is that all of this stuff is going to push the election so far outside the margin, that none of this ends up mattering, that states like Pennsylvania and Nevada and Arizona don't come down to disputes over absentee ballots and things like that. But I am worried, especially the next three weeks, not about the polls moving that much towards the president again. But I'm worried about who's going to get hurt in the process. And I'm worried about whether the polls are going to actually reflect the voters if there is all this effort to restrict access to the franchise

[00:11:22] Michael Steele I think Steve is about to put his finger on the most important pulse in the next three weeks of this campaign, I noted five million Americans have voted, but we know hundreds of thousands of ballots have been thrown out through vote by mail because the signatures weren't right or they weren't in the right envelope. So the narrative for a lot of us, and I’ve been working in this space probably since early summer, trying to get folks to focus on exactly what Stephen just put on the table, that you've got to plan to vote. Folks, if you have not voted yet, you've got to plan to vote. So that means don't give the system or those who are trying to manipulate the system more importantly, a reason to throw your ballot out. Follow the instructions that come with your ballot. If you vote by mail and so forth, making sure that you cross all those T's, dot all those I’s. Even down to using the right instrument to do it. If requires a number two pencil, use a number two pencil. And so because right right now, there are a lot of efforts underway, in particular battleground states. And here's the irony, the man who's claiming about the system being rigged is the one who's trying to rig the system. 

So we need to understand to be honest about that. I know how this works and looks from the inside, and I can tell you what these efforts look like when they, when they come up. And you've got to be smart about it and you've got to be prepared for it. And do not give them the runway to take your vote and put it in a trash can because they will. 

[00:13:00] Harry Litman And it seems like I'm as Steve says, I mean, the efforts are underway, although I think they're being joined by armies on both sides. But one does get the impression that the Trump campaign may be down to sort of one Hail Mary strategy, which is to hope that he's got some small lead on Election Day itself and then try to prevent and bully the rest of the votes being counted on some kind of fraud ground. The DOJ, which we'll talk about in a minute, has maybe made a move in that direction. And maybe this is easy to say as a, you know, someone who roots against Trump, but you have to think just for the good of the country, a decisive result would be really vital. I do want to return to the politics just briefly, though, and what Michael said about the two campaigns being run. So, again, back to Trump. We have this Hail Mary strategy. They are doing everything they can, kind of quietly, because exactly as all three of you said, when you look at every state, there are over forty five now, the common refrain is Republicans trying to shrink the franchise. They are doing that, but what the heck is up with the president seeming to cut off the limbs of his few remaining chances to gain any ground? Is it some sort of psychological effort here to just set things up for, I could have won,  but, kinds of arguments? Why is he running away from the debate? Why is he running away from a stimulus package with Donald Trump signed checks? 

He's actually taking from himself the very few remaining arguments he could try to prosecute in the next three weeks. 

[00:14:43] Michael Steele I think a lot of it has to do with, and revolves around the president's emotionalization of his situation. His ego, his emotions, his reactions are all tied together. And so when any one of those gets touched or bruised at all, alarm bells go off. So this is a man who doesn't like to be told what he can't do or must do. And when you do that, such as the debate commission saying, hey, we're now doing a viral debate, his immediate reaction is, I'm not doing that. I don't want to do that, irrespective of his own health and the health and safety of others around him. His emotional, egomaniacal response. 

[00:15:27] Harry Litman It's just Donald Trump's Id or whatever. 

[00:15:29] Michael Steele It’s his Id, I mean, the listeners I'm trying to be a pejorative and all that about Trump. I'm just, I don't need to do it. You see it. You hear it. You're smart people. You kind of assess when someone is leading with their emotion versus their logic, particularly in this health space. 

And I think that's something that can't get lost here, that what we're seeing in that first campaign versus the second, which is his actual campaign, emotionally moving from point to point. So he wanted to do the Il Duce kind of, you know, balcony scene because in his head, that's a symbol of power and stamina and all of that. 

So it has an emotional lift to him. The rest of us are looking at and going, well, that was dumb because you take the mask off and you go back into the family residence, to Laura's point, and you're engaging with everyday people who you now put at risk with your COVID self.

[00:16:26] Harry Litman Get down with your COVID self.

[00:16:30] Michael Steele So, yeah, I think I think that that's part of what you see playing out here. 

[00:16:33] Harry Litman Others I mean, we can't focus exactly on the virus. Here's a guy who's getting clobbered now among older voters. He won them by nine points against Hillary Clinton. He's down by 21, a 30 point swing. And it seems like it's all about the virus, and he's out there saying, oh, nothing to worry about. Everything's good, and older U.S. citizens are petrified of the virus. 

[00:16:56] Steve Vladeck Well, I would just add. I mean, I think part of the story also here is how few folks are undecided that, yeah. Right. That, to me, is the biggest difference numerically between this election and 2016, which is even if something dramatic happened in the next 20 some odd days, whose minds are already made up. And yes, there are millions and millions and millions of people who are going to vote for the president no matter how irresponsibly he acts. The question is, are there folks who are still making up their mind where the next three weeks are going to matter? And my reading of the polls, which is I'll confess is an amateur’s reading of the polls, is that there are far fewer voters identifying themselves as undecided in this cycle and therefore far less chance of a, you know, Hillary email like scandal or positive development that's really going to move the needle enough between now and then. And so it may be that nothing that the Trump campaign or the Biden campaign does is actually going to matter. 

[00:17:48] Laura Jarrett But all the people who are, let's call it sort of soft Trump supporters or maybe undecideds, I mean, all of the actions that he's taken just even in the last month are not doing him any favors. That debate didn't do him any favors. I mean if he, if he thinks that going out there, ripping off his mask on the balcony is helping him with suburban women who are trying to figure out, like, is this safe? 

It's not doing him any favors at all. And I think he engages in a lot of seemingly self-defeating actions and behaviors. But to Michael's point, there, there may just be something emotional there that is unexplainable. And, you know, not to get to armchair psychology here, but to me to speak to Bob Woodward. And this is weeks ago now. But to speak to Bob Woodward, one of the most famous journalist in the world, for what? 

Taking down a U.S. president? And saying to Bob Woodward, all of those things. I mean, just think about that for a minute. Right. He knows that this virus could be the tipping point for him even months ago. He had to know that because he was warned back in January, this is going to be the most serious thing for your presidency in terms of national security. 

So he was warned back in January, and yet he still still sat down with Woodward and said all those things that were completely self-defeating that I agree with Harry, that that's not somebody to me who looks like they want to win this race. But it may just be that he can't help himself. 

[00:19:15] Harry Litman I think we can all say on a nonpartisan basis, Trump supporters and detractors alike, this guy's some piece of work. I have one final question about the politics here. Do you discern that McConnell is now trying to put a little distance between him and the president and maybe even letting his guys free? 

[00:19:34] Laura Jarrett Yes. Yes. One thousand percent. 

[00:19:37] Steve Vladeck Yeah. And 1000 days too late. 

[00:19:41] Laura Jarrett I don't know about that, Steve. Right. Like, he's he's doing it when he senses a shift, right? He is nothing if not strategic. And so there's something, there's something that’s giving him pause. 

[00:19:54] Michael Steele Well, I can tell you what's giving him pause. It's the internal numbers of the NRSC, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, that shows that right now the Democrats could pick up six seats. That's what's giving him pause. In my estimation, what I know and what I've done in working with these guys. I've met with them every Tuesday in the Senate Republican caucus dining room to talk politics and let them know what is going on. And so I know the thinking, I know the rationale, particularly of the leader. He's looking at a situation in, you hit it, Steve. It's a thousand days too late where the price paid for the lack of distancing with Trump on big things that matter to the American people. And this is something that Republicans misunderstood. The American people weren't looking for McConnell and others to just dump the president by the roadside. Yeah, there was some people, the hardcore leftists, et cetera. That's what they expected and so forth. But what they were looking for, when the president refers to white nationalists, as good, fine people on both sides. 

Can you can you help a brother out and say that's not where we are? You know, as a country? And so little examples like that, which turned out to be big moments, really started to add up for a lot of America. 

[00:21:14] Steve Vladeck But but, Michael, I think I agree with all that. And, of course, I mean, you've been in the room. I think the Senate majority leader probably saw this writing on the wall a month or two ago. Right. And I think and I think he looks at, for example, the South Carolina Senate race with paroxysm of rage. To Laura's point about why now, I think the answer is not some 11th hour attempt to try to hold onto the Senate. I actually think it's something entirely different, which is an 11th hour attempt to make absolutely sure they finish the Barrett competition before November 3rd. I think McConnell has given up the Senate. I think he knows it's lost. I think he knows that if he waits until after November 3rd to vote on Barrett, he might lose Susan Collins, who will be a lame duck. They might lose Lisa Murkowski, who will be a very empowered, not lame duck. Mark Kelly would become the senator of Arizona by November 30th, I believe. And so I don't think this is about McConnell trying to save his majority, I think this is about McConnell making sure Barrett gets through before he loses it. 

[00:22:11] Harry Litman And why is that? I mean, why does he need to separate out in order to make sure, I see that as his goal, but why does it, how does it connect? 

[00:22:17] Steve Vladeck Because I think he has plausible reason to worry that even though there's a lame duck session where Republicans will still have no fewer than 52 seats in the Senate, there may be at least three Republican senators who won't vote to confirm Amy Coney Barrett after the Republicans have been kicked out of both the White House and the Senate, who will be perfectly happy to do so before then.

[00:22:35] Michael Steele Steve's analysis is straight on and I can't even add to it because that's exactly what I'm hearing and the conversations that are sort of floating in quiet spaces now. And you've seen it even reported by Robert Costa in The Washington Post that senators are beginning to distance themselves. That's just the frontal view of this. That's the distraction story, because the background story is exactly what Steve just said. 

We're going to get Amy Coney Barrett done. We'll get her done by October 30th. And hands are washed. And the chips will fall where they may on the Senate.

[00:23:13] Harry Litman See you in four years. So you're not hearing whispers of, if we ram her through now as Trump wants, will we pay for it more? 

[00:23:19] Michael Steele Yeah, that's like that's like you get hit with something and, you know, it leaves a bruise and you get hit again is like, okay, on the same spot as I still have the bruise, I cannot change anything. 

So yeah. I mean doing this and the consequence is losing the Senate. Well to Steve's point, it's already gone, so. 

[00:23:37] Steve Vladeck You know, I mean, it's classic McConnell, salvaging victory from the jaws of defeat. 

[00:23:42] Laura Jarrett And doing anything to get judges through by any means necessary. I mean, it's the whole reason Trump in some ways is there. I mean, he's put up with everything for the judges. 

[00:23:54] Harry Litman Right. That the people who you were surprised voted for him. 

When you ask them, they say, oh, yeah, he's a terrible person, but A, taxes and B, judges. 

[00:24:02] Steve Vladeck And it's distinctly possible that Amy Coney Barrert's going to be the last Republican judge confirmed of the federal judiciary for some time. 

[00:24:08] Michael Steele I agree with that. And the thinking and again, you know, my team, sometimes I tell them we were in the huddle, guys. This is not the play. It's not going to come out the way you think you're going to come out. And the thinking is that we stack the bench with all these judges. These conservative judges. And I put conservative in quotation marks. Some of them shouldn't even be in a courtroom, let alone sitting on a bench. OK. So let's let's be honest about that. When you put a 38 year old who's never tried a case. 

[00:24:40] Steve Vladeck The question is, what are the Democrats going to do about it? This is the million dollar question that the vice president avoided at the debate, sorry, vice president Biden, are the Democrats going to pursue some kind of institutional reform to the courts? And there's a lot of blood spilled on the question of expanding the size of the Supreme Court. You don't hear any talk about expanding the size of the lower federal courts, which is nowhere near as controversial, which has done far more often, which would be at least one way of trying to dilute the influence of the Trump administration on the courts. 

[00:25:05] Michael Steele I agree with you on that. And I think that that's why part of the question is not answered publicly, because they don't want to open up that particular narrative potentially and just kind of leave that as something that happens. 

[00:25:18] Harry Litman Right. I mean, it'd be crazy politically for that, right? 

[00:25:21] Michael Steele It just would be. 

[00:25:22] Harry Litman Yeah. All right. Let's shift gears and talk a little bit about the Department of Justice, because we've defined a possible thread the needle strategy, remote though it may be, of hoping November 3rd to be slightly ahead and to shut everything down. And the department did something quiet but ominous this week when it said, oh, you know our general rules for not messing with elections, well they don't count if we think there's been fraud on the actual day. Of course, it only has to be if there's use of the mails in some way, which is to say, you know, it has the same breath as like the overall mail fraud statute. 

So how afraid should we be that the department is kind of gearing up to be the soldiers for what seems like a very crazy ploy by the president? 

[00:26:14] Laura Jarrett I think, once again, this is an example of the Justice Department under Attorney General Bill Barr making a pronouncement that on the face seems like he's doing the president's bidding, but in real action remains to be seen whether it has any teeth. I think these decisions are going to get left up to the U.S. attorney's offices by and large. He may weigh in if there is, in fact, a disputed election in a way that some may be unhappy with. But think about all those things that have happened over the past couple months that Barr has done, changes that have been made, speaking out on active investigations when that historically had never been done, at least in the way that he was doing it. I mean, all of this stuff, at least on the face of it, seems to help the president. But does it really in action? 

[00:26:59] Harry Litman What are you thinking that maybe he's trying to mollify him personally, but actually not go in with a, you know, total upheaval? 

[00:27:08] Laura Jarrett Yeah, I think it's worth thinking about that. I think that and well I'm sure we'll get to this. But the whole issue of what's happening with John Durham and his report. 

[00:27:17] Harry Litman Right. Well, let's get to it now. 

[00:27:19] Laura Jarrett Well, I think it's another example of him announcing an investigation instead of just doing it quietly. Right. So if he was really worried that there was something that had been very bad, that had happened back in 2016 at the FBI, you would think he would have done it quietly and taken care of it. Instead, he announces his very public investigation, he gets the right really ginned up about it, a lot of excitement. The chief of staff is going around saying indictments are coming. Turns out indictments aren't coming, at least before the election. 

[00:27:48] Harry Litman Nothing's coming before the election. Right. 

[00:27:50] Laura Jarrett And at least one GOP aide had like a what I consider this amazing party admission to say to Axios this morning. If you don't get anything before the election, it's virtually meaningless, which is to say, all of this all of this was just about affecting the election. None of this was real. 

If it was real, it wouldn't matter when the timing was. If it was real, you would probably want the prosecutor to take his time and be methodical, as Durham is known to do. And he's known to do this on both sides. Bipartisan, both Democrats and Republicans have worked with him. 

This is not somebody who's supposed to be a hack, but instead they wanted to politicize this investigation from jump. And now it turns out it was all for naught. 

[00:28:34] Steve Vladeck I would just add to Laura's, I think, entirely justified ire at the Justice Department. Keep in mind, there is also this story about the nine stolen ballots that DOJ made a huge deal about and then pulled down. 

[00:28:46] Harry Litman Throw that out for us a little bit. This is in my home state, right? 

[00:28:50] Steve Vladeck There was this dramatic press release in this breathless announcement about these guys who had been found sort of mishandling nine Trump ballots in Pennsylvania, 

[00:29:00] Harry Litman Seven as it turned out, but yeah, whatever. 

[00:29:01] Steve Vladeck So so the way the story was pitched was see, see, mail-in ballots are ripe for fraud. And there was like six hours of right wing media frenzy over this. And then DOJ pulled the release down because I think they realized, one, they don't usually issue releases like that. Two, there's a bunch of the release that was wrong. Yeah. And three was sending the wrong message. So I think we should be very wary in the next couple weeks of confusing signal from DOJ with noise. There's only so much Barr can do on his own, he can't go out and do all these investigations himself. He might be freeing up U.S. attorneys to do things they wouldn't otherwise have been able to do in the three years before the election. I’m with Laura, I'm waiting to see any of that actually done. 

[00:29:39] Michael Steele Look, this is this is all about politics, and as much as my friends and colleagues on the right have complained about the politicization of the Justice Department and the FBI and all these other government agencies, you have not seen a worse example of that than you have in this Trumpian era where president just yesterday and again this morning referred to the Justice Department again on the heels of the investigation into the assassination attempt of Governor Whitmer as my Justice Department. In America, that's all you need to know about how Donald Trump sees these things. And what makes it so problematic is that you have an attorney general that doesn't have a problem with a hyper executive power, let's put it that way, that looks at these constitutional norms and administrative systems as tools in the executive toolbox. 

[00:30:42] Laura Jarrett But it's interesting, Michael, because he will give him just enough. Right. So he's not going to indict President Obama or Vice President Biden. That's ridiculous. And it's always been ridiculous. 

[00:30:52] Harry Litman It's ridiculous. Although Trump calls into Fox yesterday and questions Barr’s entire legacy if he doesn't.

[00:30:59] Laura Jarrett So that was so weird. Bob Barr, you know, as one person put it to me today, he's almost created this Frankenstein or he can't control. So he sets up this dynamic where he gets the president all ginned up about the Durham report and everything that's gonna happen with it. Well, probably while knowing full well it's it's going to let him down. He's not going to indict Comey. He's not going to indict all of the people that the president has gone after for so long. But he gives them just enough charm by having it out there. That allows the president to speculate wildly for however many months about this. And you know, he gives him a talking point, but he's not giving him the ultimate big ticket item that he wants. It's just interesting that he thought he could control the situation, I think, more than obviously he's been able to. 

[00:31:46] Steve Vladeck And in that regard, Barr may be like McConnell, right. 

[00:31:49] Harry Litman Exactly. Yeah, right. 

[00:31:50] Steve Vladeck Where where Barr may have been very late, but Barr is no dummy. He has to understand at this point that, yes, this is about his legacy because he's not going to be attorney general for that much longer. But does he want his legacy written by the president or does he want to see this written by people who are actually going to be in charge on the far side of this? 

[00:32:07] Laura Jarrett Well, I don't know. As he said himself, he gave up on that a long time ago, or he would not have joined this administration. 

[00:32:16] Michael Steele As one Republican put it to me recently, this whole investigation was just another Benghazi moment for the GOP, right. Republicans say I mean, after all the money spent, all the investigation, 11 hours of testimony by Hillary Clinton. Where does it get you? No indictments, no convictions, no, no nothing. And again, this is how this plays out, both in terms of politics, but more importantly, how it politicizes and demoralizes good public servants who don't want to be in the political space. That's why they're at DOJ and FBI. 

[00:32:47] Harry Litman Which is so true. And it does seem like they're closing up shop. I can add one little detail as a former U.S. attorney, which is this revelation last week that Rod Rosenstein had insisted that the zero tolerance policy of migrant separation apply no matter how young the children in the family. There were reports of five good Trump U.S. attorneys who he was overriding and putting his boot on the neck of, who were like, oh, my God, don't make me do this. That kind of thing, that's a real hit within the department that maybe Barr has to try to reverse ground on when five different U.S. attorneys are saying this was way over the top. 

It's now time to take a moment for our Sidebar feature, which explains some of the terms and relationships that are foundational to events that are typically in the news, but they're never really explained. We're going to talk today about the Voting Rights Act, a critical part of the legal landscape for elections, but a statute that the Supreme Court has weakened in recent years. And to explain it to us, we are happy to welcome Maggie Renzi. Renzi is an American film producer and actress. Her first film, Return of the Secaucus Seven, in which Renzi was the star, unit manager, editor and producer, won a best screenplay award from the Los Angeles Film Critics Association. Her distinguished career since includes production work on Lone Star, Girlfight, and a number of Bruce Springsteen music videos. 

[00:34:25] Maggie Renzi What is the Voting Rights Act and what does it do? The right to vote is perhaps the most fundamental and important right in democratic society. As the Supreme Court observed in 1886, voting preserves and protects all other rights. In the aftermath of the Civil War, Congress added the 15th Amendment to prohibit race based voting discrimination. But despite the constitutional prohibition, systematic disenfranchisement of black Americans continued, especially in the post reconstruction south. One hundred years later, Congress passed the Voting Rights Act, among the most successful pieces of federal civil rights legislation. The VRA became law in August 1965, five months after peaceful civil rights demonstrators were beaten, trampled and tear gassed in Selma, Alabama, during a voting rights march. John Lewis was among those demonstrators. The Voting Rights Act employs several mechanisms to combat disenfranchisement. 

It prohibits literacy tests, poll taxes and other devices historically used to prevent Americans of color from voting. It authorizes federal supervision of registrations and elections, and it imposes civil and criminal penalties for preventing others from voting based on race, color or language minority status. The most powerful enforcement tool in the Voting Rights Act is the federal preclearance process contained in Section five. Under this process, states and localities that Congress determined had the worst records of voting discrimination must obtain DOJ approval for any voting changes, such as drawing new voting district lines. A proposed change will only be cleared if it has neither a discriminatory purpose nor effect. However, in a 2013 case called Shelby County vs. Holder, the Supreme Court dealt a serious blow to the Voting Rights Act. The Supreme Court held that the preclearance formula was unconstitutional because, not having been updated in 40 years, it was untethered from current conditions. The 2016 presidential election was the first to proceed without the preclearance protections. 14 states added new voting restrictions for that election, and post-election studies found that many thousands of minority voters in key districts were deterred from voting. 

This voter suppression and disenfranchisement lends credence to Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's dissenting statement in Shelby County, that throwing out preclearance when it has worked and is continuing to work, is like throwing away your umbrella in a rainstorm because you are not getting wet. Importantly, Shelby County would permit the preclearance process if Congress revises the formula. But so far, Congress hasn't stepped up to the task. For Talking Feds, I'm Maggie Renzi. 

[00:37:35] Harry Litman Thanks very much, Maggie Renzi. Renzi is now working with longtime companion John Sayles on a Western called I Passed this Way. 

[00:38:45] Harry Litman All right. Everyone's been so startled by it, it's come up repeatedly just in our discussion so far this hour, and that is the announcement of the kidnap charges and other charges against six hardcore conspirators and seven helpers to try to kidnap and try for treason Governor Whitmer of Michigan. Let me just start here. You know, is this serious? You hear about threats like this, but they're kind of empty sometimes. Is that what this is? Or are we talking about some serious bad guys who might actually have grabbed her and taken her away? 

[00:39:21] Laura Jarrett I think it's deadly serious because the president of the United States is telling them to stand by. This is deadly serious. 

These are people who would under any other circumstance, the president would come out and say this is unacceptable. He would have privately called the governor to check on her, I mean, there is no universe in which this happens in any other situation, and that the president will go on Twitter and say, you should actually be thanking me because it was my FBI that catches these things. Right, you’re a terrible governor. And not only are you a terrible governor, you're a terrible governor pointing to her stay at home orders, which is the exact thing that this group of men pointed to for why that they were against her. Now, you can believe that or not, but I think it's worth noting that they're taking their cues from him. And I'm not trying to make a causal relationship here, but I do think that people are listening to him. And, you know, that old trope that the media was just kind of taking him literally and not seriously. Well, these people are taking him seriously and literally.

[00:40:21] Steve Vladeck If anything, I think it's even more serious than that, because if that to the two points I pick up on that Laura said, the end of the president's insane little tweet storm about it was basically demanding that she do exactly the things that the punitive kidnappers were going to do. That is just indefensible as a human, let alone as a president. But the second part, and this is the part that scares me, the part that I find most serious about this is the number of folks in right wing social media who are saying, well, you know, she was a tyrannical governor. 

[00:40:56] Harry Litman You put it nicely. They call her a tyrant bitch on social media.

[00:40:59] Steve Vladeck As their evidence of her tyranny was the fact that she just lost , mind you, incredibly controversial four three decision in the state Supreme Court, which she is abiding by. And so the notion that an executive official who loses a close case in the state or federal Supreme Court, that that is proof of her tyrannical disposition sufficient to justify the use of violent force to overthrow her. We have a term for that in this country, the term is treason. It is not just that what they were doing was the alleged kidnapping and murder plot. They were going to commit treason against the state of Michigan. And I have been like the world's strongest defender of not overusing the T word to describe Trump to describe what Trump says happened to him. This was attempted treason against the state of Michigan. And there's a reason why that is one of our most infamous crimes.

[00:41:48] Michael Steele Both Laura and Steve have put this exactly where we need to see it and how we need to focus on it. Because, you know, as a former elected official, I understand very well the dynamics and the complexities of the decision process, how at times it can rile up people in the state and certainly even people on, on supposedly on your side of the fence. But when you cross that line, which, as Stephen put it, was crossed here where you're committing treason against the state, particularly under the circumstances and for the reasons that were stated, it should send alarm bells across the country, because Michigan is the tip of a very, very long spear. And I think it's important for us to understand that going back to 2015, there has been a systematic stoking of this element within our culture and within our communities. Steve Bannon was part of that very early on. The president himself has picked up and continued that narrative. Going back to what I said before, when you look at these situations and you see fine people on both sides, you have to understand what that says to the people on that side. When you see the response by Proud Boys at the debate with the president, you know, stand back and stand by. That becomes their slogan, their logo on their arm pad. So, yeah, every governor, every elected official needs to be wary of where this will go and the impact it could have on their states. 

[00:43:24] Harry Litman Yeah, I agree with that. And something in particular that sort of separated this out for me and reminded me more of your genuinely dangerous episodes like Waco or Jim Jones. They weren't just like random angry folks wanting to grab her.

They're this, they live in this whole bizarre, alternate universe. Remember, they were gonna try her for treason. These are people who have this elaborate world view under which they're just not they're not just pissed that she did this or that, they believe in some deep, doctrinaire way in some kind of illegitimacy of her and the whole government. And, of course, this grows. 

[00:44:04] This flourishes, you go immediately to the tweets and the social media and you find the comments like the ones I cited is one of the lessons you take from this, that we've gotta reform social media more and point the finger at them? Or is there nothing that can really be done about such crazies as far as that regulation is concerned? 

[00:44:27] Laura Jarrett I think that ship has sailed. I think the idea of putting these fact checks and tags on tweets and Facebook posts, I think the research shows that the lies are out there and actually even just doing, something I think about in my own reporting when we repeat people lies. Even if we say ‘falsely claims’ or explain after we explain the lie why it's wrong, people hear the lie. I think it is the constant fact checking all day long I think people get a tin ear to it.

[00:44:56] Michael Steele I agree with Laura there for sure. Let’s call the thing what it is. All right. So these are domestic terrorist organizations, and should be treated as such by our judicial system, by our criminal justice system and by the executive leadership of this country, starting with the president of the United States. If you engage in this kind of behavior, we cannot identify and will not identify the KKK as a domestic terrorist organization to this day. Why not? Seriously? You've got to be kidding me. And then white nationalism in all of its forms and manifestations. You can do social media, you can put a tag on whatever the hell you want. At the end of the day, if you don't recognize a thing for what it actually is, the tag means nothing. And no one takes it seriously because there is always room to say, oh, there are fine people on both sides. 

[00:45:53] Harry Litman Boy, you know, I don't see a better end than that. OK, we have just a few minutes left. Let's do our Five Words or Fewer. I've changed around a little because I was on Australian TV, they said they would ask me a few questions from viewers and I proceeded to field the most elaborate series of law school hypotheticals — and I just kept thinking, I wish Steve Vladeck were here. I wish Steve Vladeck were here — about what could happen here, and they were going to take one of them from Miles from Australia and ask each of us to even a harder job, which is do it in Five Words or Fewer. Miles asks, what if there is a tie in the Electoral College vote and then a tie in the House delegations vote for president? There's our question, Feds, in five words or fewer. And I think it has to be Steve who starts.

[00:46:45] Steve Vladeck Party like it’s 1801.

[00:46:50] Harry Litman Alright, anyone?

[00:46:51] Michael Steele Stay calm and drink. 

[00:46:55] Laura Jarrett Gonna be a hot mess.

[00:46:57] Harry Litman Boy, I'm just I just feel so prosaic, but I got to pick up on the 1801. Jefferson, Burr, Hamilton. Redux. Ending with a fancy word. 

[00:47:14] Harry Litman Thank you very much to Laura, Michael and Steve, and thank you very much, listeners, for tuning in to Talking Feds. If you like what you've heard, please tell a friend to subscribe to us on Apple Podcasts, or wherever they get their podcasts, and please take a moment to rate and review this podcast. You can follow us on Twitter @TalkingFedsPod to find out about future episodes and other feds related content. You can check us out on the web, talkingfeds.com , where we have full episode transcripts. And you can look to see our latest offerings on Patreon where we post discussions about special topics exclusively for supporters. Submit your questions to questions@talkingfeds.com , whether it's for Five Words or Fewer or general questions about the inner workings of the legal system for our sidebar segment. Thanks for tuning in, and don’t worry: as long as you need answers, the Feds will keep talking.

Talking Feds is produced by Jennifer Bassett and Rebecca Lowe Patton. Our editor is Justin Wright. David Lieberman and Rosie Don Griffin are our contributing writers. Production assistance by Matt McArdle. Our consulting producer is Andrea Carla Michaels. Thanks very much toMaggie Renzi for explaining the voting rights act. Our gratitude as always to the amazing Philip Glass, who graciously lets us use his music. Talking Feds is a production of Dalito, LLC. I'm Harry Litman, see you next time.

TALKING FEDS NOW: POSITIVE UNCERTAINTY

Harry Litman [00:00:08]: Welcome to Talking Feds, a roundtable that brings together prominent former federal officials and special guests for a dynamic discussion of the most important political and legal topics of the day. I'm Harry Litman. The haunted house rollercoaster ride that is the Trump presidency suddenly plunged off the tracks this week with the news that both the president and the first lady have tested positive for the Coronavirus.

Trump decamped to Walter Reed, leaving a flurry of questions in his wake: Legal questions about presidential succession, operational questions about running the government, national security questions about preventing adversaries from exploiting the confusion, medical questions about the gravity of his condition, and the identification of others, whom he may have infected, and political questions about the impact on the election, the Supreme court confirmation, and more.

And it was beginning to look as if the Rose Garden ceremony for Amy Coney Barrett had been a sort of super spreader, with several attendees — Ron Johnson, Tom Tillis, Kellyanne Conway, Chris Christie — now having tested positive for the virus.

The stunning revelations came just two days after a presidential debate between Trump and former vice president Biden, which the president, seemingly incapable of suppressing his interjections and third grade insults, turned into a 40 car pile up.

And just to round it all out, 11 Coronavirus cases have been traced to the pre-debate planning or set up for the presidential debate held in Cleveland on Tuesday. It was surely one of the strangest weeks in presidential history, and we are now left to try to make sense of it and separate fact from fiction through the multiple cloud covers of Trump's own mendacity, possible foreign disinformation on social media, and the national security legitimate need to potentially obfuscate Trump's true condition. So a lot more is cloudy than clear, but it's critical to do our best to analyze what's happening, and fortunately we have a fantastic group of prominent commentators to help guide us and they are:

Laura Coates. Laura is a senior legal analyst at CNN, and host of the Laura Coates show on Sirius XM’s Urban View. She's also an adjunct law professor at George Washington University School of Law, and speaks across the country on economic empowerment, social justice and civil rights issues. Laura, welcome to Talking Feds. 

Laura Coates [00:02:50]: Thank you, I'm glad to be here!

Harry Litman [00:02:52]: Norm Ornstein, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and cohost of the AIS election watch. He's also a contributing editor for the national journal and the Atlantic; he's one of the country's foremost political thinkers, and in fact has been named one of the top hundred global thinkers for diagnosing America's political dysfunction. He is in addition, an expert on issues of presidential succession, having headed a commission on that very topic about 10 years ago. Norm, thanks very much for being here. 

Norm Ornstein [00:03:27]: Always a pleasure, Harry. 

Harry Litman [00:03:29]: Finally, joining Talking Feds for the first time, Michael Schmidt. Journalist, author and correspondent for the New York Times in Washington, D.C. He is a national security contributor for MSNBC and NBC News. Schmidt is a winner of multiple Pulitzer prizes for his reporting, including for breaking the news that Trump had asked FBI Director James Comey for a loyalty pledge. He is also the author of the just published and already New York Times bestselling Donald Trump v. The United States: Inside the Struggle to Stop a President, and he and I will be having an extended discussion about that book that will be published on Patreon next week. Michael, thanks so much for joining Talking Feds.

Michael Schmidt [00:04:25]: Thanks for having me. 

Harry Litman [00:04:26]: All right. Let's just try to start a little bit with some of the facts on the ground and what we know and don't know. So, immediately you have a swirl of rumors and conspiracy theories on the web, starting with the most basic question. So fundamental is the mistrust of Trump at this point, has he tested positive? You're aware of, of naysayers on that, does everyone here agree that that basic fact is in fact true? 

Laura Coates [00:04:57]: I think that it's true that there are naysayers. That's a basic fact. It's also true that people are fundamentally mistrustful of the president. But I think it's highly unlikely that this is a course of action he would try to lie about. I think that we have his doctor reporting he's been admitted to Walter Reed at this point. I do think that he in fact has been diagnosed, but it speaks to the larger issue of, there is such a lack of credibility that the American people feel towards and that they even question something like this.

Harry Litman [00:05:28]: Yeah. What's he up to, what's this scheme? And doctors have said not just that he's tested positive, he's got symptoms, right? He has a low grade fever, a cough and congestion. So, it's really up to the next level. What's your sense of the gravity of his current condition? 

Norm Ornstein [00:05:46] I think it's clear that he has not only tested positive, but it's more serious than they have led on. You don't go to Walter Reed when you have superb facilities at the White House, unless there's something more than just mild symptoms. But remember that they knew that Hope Hicks, who had been symptomatic, had suffered already and likely was positive when they went to the debate.

And so, the deceptiveness here is not lying about having COVID, it's lying about the vulnerability that existed, the possibility that he had COVID and the willingness to have others become vulnerable so that they wouldn't let on about what was going on. 

Harry Litman [00:06:31]: Yeah, I mean how stunning is that? I mean, we now know that Biden and his wife have tested negative, but he could have taken out the whole election.

Michael Schmidt [00:06:40]: I think that we're going to see how much it matters for this president to have a reservoir of not good will, but of people willing to listen to him and to trust his White House, because there's been this notion all along that the lie is that they have told will catch up with them because there will be a point at which they need to speak to the American people about something that the American public needs to know and trust.

And this might be the ultimate test of that. And we may see how much it really matters. And the fact that there's so much doubt about the president and about, as Norm was saying, the fact that his condition looks like it's probably worse than they've let on. That skepticism, that's the beginning of the answer to the question.

Laura Coates [00:07:31]: I mean, certainly Trump is not the first politician who the American public or the world has doubted. I mean, politicians are not normally considered to be. The most forthcoming and sincerest among us. I mean, pancake breakfast and kissing babies, you know, be damned.

They're not known as the most credible all the time, but I go back to day one for me is the unnecessary very beginnings of the skepticism of the crowd size at the inauguration. When you trade the good will, when you deplete your credibility bank account for unnecessary transactions like that, it leads to people asking the very questions Michael said, which was what happens if there is a national security threat and we have to believe in the president.

Well, here we have, are you talking about the line of succession and trying to figure out in a Waldo sort of way, where is Vice President Pence? Where are the others who might be in the line of session? Will there be a transition of power? All of these things has shown me what happens when you deplete over the course of a number of years, that sort of credibility in your account.

But it also speaks to the idea that remember, and as with what the Bob Woodward book talks about, this is the president who said that he will and is willing and did downplay a pandemic to avoid panic. Well, what could be more panic inducing than a president being admitted to a hospital, and no condition of power and no clear answer to any of the questions you raised today, Harry.

Harry Litman [00:08:54]: The credibility is on the line. They really need the American public to believe them, and that his account is empty and bankrupt will keep it from happening. 

Michael Schmidt [00:09:05]: In the case of Trump, it's sort of a bastardized version of this, which is that you would assume that you would need a president to have credibility with the public so if he said to the public ‘Hey, y’all need to wear a mask to stop this virus from spreading.’

But in the case of Trump, it was the opposite where he was working basically to undermine that. So, I think it's just another example of how in the Trump era, we see the system being tested in ways that we never could have conceived. And we're trying to unwrap what would be a basic question of credibility and the presidency, and we get tripped up by the fact that the president has been part of the disinformation about the virus. 

Norm Ornstein [00:09:44]: And disinformation even more generally. I think we would have seen outside of his core, a huge amount of skepticism in the 35 days before the election, of almost anything that he said that we would assume he was tilting to his own advantage, about ballots cast, about proud boys or almost anything else, but now we're at a different level.

And what I'm finding so stunning even today is, we find out that Hope Hicks, who's not just close to Trump, but has been in close proximity to large numbers of others in the White House, in a confined space on Air Force One and elsewhere, comes down with the virus, the president and the first lady do, two others at the Barrett event at the White House do.

And what do they do? They don't stop now and say, Oh my God, now we have to let everybody know. We all should be wearing masks. We need to take precautions. Mark Meadows, the chief of staff walks around the White House today, goes out and briefs reporters without a mask. Larry Kudlow, without a mask. They announced at the White House that they won't require masks in the White House where it has been a hot house now.

The Wisconsin Republican party files a lawsuit today, after all of this, to block the governor from putting in a mask requirement, and the Michigan Supreme court in a partisan vote blocks the governor of Michigan from a lot of the things she's done to protect the public in Michigan.

We're seeing a whole set of behaviors that are so jarring that you can't accept credibility in any way. And then let me throw in one other thing, which is every other time we've had a president who's had even a cold, or I remember before Jimmy Carter went in for his hemorrhoid operation, we have officials, including the doctors give a full briefing to the public so that they know exactly what's going on.

They haven't given us any information about what's caused the president to go to Walter Reed. 

Laura Coates [00:11:42]: To add onto that as well, in addition to the idea of not having the information, we're talking about the fact that imagine if you are the DNC nominee, Joe Biden, who debated with him and, I understand, learned about the COVID diagnosis, the way everybody here. Here he is, certainly far more than six feet apart on the stage from the president of the United States, I think it was 12 feet to be exact is how far away their two podiums were. But imagine him sitting there for all that time and we already know the nature of that debate.

We already know the abusive nature of the president's commentary that evening. And we also know how that all transpired. And then to find out if you're him, having spent more than 15 minutes, remember the CDC guidelines say if you are within six feet of someone who was known to test positive and you are without a mask for more than 15 minutes, you're supposed to quarantine. This, the man who had a two hour debate and he learns it the same way.

And so you think about those sort of norms that Norman is speaking about, the idea that the information that the American people looks at to assess and evaluate a candidate, let alone an incumbent, whether it's a tax return to understand the nature of who they might be beholden to, or whether it's a discussion about one's health or preexisting conditions or co-morbidities, that would help you to assess somebody's viability. These are things that should not be hidden in a democracy, where we need an informed electorate to make the decision. 

Michael Schmidt [00:13:09]: Picking up on that point. Take the last time the president went to Walter Reed as an example, this is something that I report on in my book, which is that he goes in November of 2019, at the time that impeachment is really accelerating and he says it's to begin his yearly checkup. He's going to get a head start on that, which on the face of it does not make any sense. It's a very curious thing. 

It's only many, many months later that I get a chance to report in my book that when he was going to the hospital, they told Pence to be on standby because they thought they’d have to put him under, and that raises this question of, well what was really going on? So we knew it didn't make sense before, and now we're finding out in an anecdote in a book that it was so serious that they thought that they may have to transfer the powers of the presidency to the vice president. So when you see Mark Meadows come out today on the north lawn of the White House and tell reporters, ‘Oh, you know, he's, you know, mild symptoms.’ You have to be curious. 

Harry Litman [00:14:16]: Yeah, very good point. And remember the whole chain of events, Laura brings up the inauguration, remember that his very first medical report in which his doctor, I think he's a doctor maybe at a medical degree, came out and pronounced with confidence, he's the healthiest president of all time. 

Somehow he was able to discern that. I just want to underscore a point that Norm made that I think's very important. I had a conversation with a virologist today, and back to Hicks and the stunning irresponsibility of marching to the debate with the knowledge, almost certain knowledge that he had been infected. 

The fact that they both he and the first lady were tested positive simultaneously suggest strongly that they didn't give it to one another. And therefore you look to events in which they were both present, which are not all that many really. And there is a lot of zeroing in now, the timing works out right for the Saturday Rose Garden ceremony for judge Barrett. 

And we have, of course, president John Jenkins of Notre Dame who's tested positive, Senator Mike Lee, both of them, by the way, photographed not wearing a mask there at the time. So, it seems to be likely that it happened in a big event, meaning there are more dominoes to fall probably.

And just a general, kind of stunning dereliction in letting it all happen. Norm I wanted to turn to you because you are Mr. presidential succession, and there are some really difficult questions here.  You have an article that's just been posted in the Washington Post outlook section this weekend, what do you see as being really critical and vexing in the whole notion of presidential succession should Trump become gravely ill?

Norm Ornstein [00:16:02]: So I became deeply engaged in this issue and the continuity of the three branches in the aftermath of 9/11. And we created the continuity of government commission, we did a big report on presidential succession. There are really two key elements here, there's the presidential succession act of 1947. The one that puts the speaker of the house in line right after the vice president, followed by the president pro tempore of the Senate and the cabinet. And there's the 25th amendment.

The 25th amendment is relevant in two ways, of course it affects the ability of a president, if there is no vice-president, to choose a new one, but it also deals with all of these issues of disability in the presidency. 

Harry Litman [00:16:44]: We remember this came up when Rosenstein was talking about, do we need to activate section four of this if Trump is off the reservation, right.

Norm Ornstein [00:16:53]: So there are two elements of this. One is if a president can actually directly sign over the disability, which is what we're looking at now. The president is conscious and is willing and understands that he is unable to carry out his duties for a period of time.

The second is the involuntary, and that's what the section four is about. And that can happen if a president is comatose, or is non compos mentis,  has dementia. By the way, we could see that happen with COVID because one of the symptoms is that you lose mental acuity. So, there are a lot of ways in which that happens.

One of the problems with the 25th amendment though, and keep in mind that Mike Pence now has said he's not going to quarantine himself, even though he was in a position where all of the protocols suggest that could.

Harry Litman [00:17:42]: The right thing to do for anybody who was in Saturday Rose garden, they should all be quarantining, right. That would be the state standard advice. 

Norm Ornstein [00:17:49]: And all of those who were at the debate on Air Force One with them and so on. There's no provision in the 25th amendment, if both the president and the vice president are incapacitated, imagine if Pence gets COVID. Both of them end up on ventilators.

So, the presidential succession act in a way addresses this in that it sets up a succession if a president, vice president die, or have an inability, but there's no link to that. Let's say that they're both sort of out in operations for a day or two, and Nancy Pelosi says, okay, I'm going to invoke the presidential succession act and I will become acting president.

Lots of people would say no, and there's no direct link or provision to allow that. 

Michael Schmidt [00:18:33]: If the president and the vice president are both on ventilators, you know, for some reason, who's in charge of the country?

Norm Ornstein [00:18:39]: And that's the question. Nobody is, we have no provision in place for a formal transfer under those circumstances. And what you can imagine is, not only the possibility of the speaker saying, all right, I should step in, but you could imagine Mike Pompeo saying, well, I'm really the one in line here, and I should be the one who should take over, and we could have a real crisis in terms of the clarity of the change of command.

It has not been resolved. And now for the first time, we have at least a possibility of a real crisis on that front, which could have great national security implications. 

Harry Litman [00:19:16]: I mean, my sense, Michael, and Norm is the expert, is that there are two separate trails and one seems to lead toward the speaker and the president pro tempore.

And another seems to lead down in the executive branch. All of these are kind of imponderable and they are normally fantastically unlikely. Now they're just unlikely. So you're right. Norm. We could be looking at them. I have one quick question for you on this, and then I'd like to kind of move to the political implications. Let's say Pence becomes the acting president, I think that's the formal term, would he remain the president pro tem of the Senate at that point? And what his vote still count?

Norm Ornstein [00:19:58]: He is the president of the Senate, but he would not be president of the Senate as acting president. One little twist in this and this as well, that you should all understand, which is under the presidential succession act, the people in line are not allowed to serve if they have been impeached, the cabinet members. So if the house decided that they didn't want Mike Pompeo and maybe preferred Steve Mnuchin, who would be next after that, they could quickly impeach him. He doesn't have to be convicted to be taken out of the line of succession.

And of course, if it ever got to Bill Barr, I would hope that they would move in, as we say, a New York minute to impeach him and keep him from becoming acting president. 

Laura Coates [00:20:36]: I think we can all agree it's a little too soon for the I word, for the impeachment word, but I will say just the idea that we were going through this sort of flow chart based on the instability, is that much more of a reason why we should not be left in the dark about what's happening? It's not just our general curiosity used here and you know, I'm as nosy as the next person, I am as intellectually curious as the next person.

But I feel as though there are some things that are ponderables you're talking about, if there were some things that could actually be dealt with in anticipation , that's one of the reasons we've got Congress. That's one of the reasons it should be hashed out before it gets to that. So I am not a fan of the idea of having Johnny come lately, be the way we look at this.

I mean, this is not a topic to procrastinate about, not just because there's an election looming, but because this is the kind of thing that makes the American people feel as though we have an unstable democracy when the things that we've taken for granted, ‘Oh, well, okay, there's a line of succession.’ I mean, there's television shows and movies made about somebody having to stay home from the state of the union address and what happens next.

And they all have a grasp as armchair sort of constitutionalists about what's supposed to happen. And then we have yet another instance when whatever's behind that, in case of emergency break glass is nothing but more questions. And that's really infuriating for a lot of Americans. 

Norm Ornstein [00:21:56]: As it should be. And I will only say Laura, that I spent 19 years after 9/11, trying to get Congress to act on continuity for Congress, the Supreme Court and presidential succession and got nowhere. 

Harry Litman [00:22:10]: As always, they should have listened to Norm. 

Laura Coates [00:22:13]: There you go.

Harry Litman [00:22:14]: And on that note, it's time for our Sidebar segment. As Talking Feds listeners know, we usually have a well known person or celebrity explain an important legal term. Today, instead of our traditional Sidebar, we thought it made sense to instead answer in depth some of our questions from our listeners that we received on Twitter that pertain to the legal implications surrounding president Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis, on the election and Amy Coney Barrett’s nomination. And to do that, we are really fortunate to have spoken to Steven Vladeck, who is the Charles Alan Wright Chair In Federal Courts at the University of Texas School of Law and also an executive editor at the Just Security podcast. I spoke with Steve earlier, and he addressed many of these questions, here is a synopsis of what he had to say:

Harry Litman [00:23:12]: But there is real law here, right? People have anticipated it, and even constitutional law. So when you think presidential incapacitation or worse, what do you think about legally?

Steve Vladeck [00:23:26]: So I think there are two different buckets of questions, right? One is what happens to the president and the other is what happens to the election, and I think we should take those separately. So with regard to the president, I mean i think it's worth stressing that the sort of from 1792 until really JFK was assassinated, Congress had provided for situations where the president was dead but it had not provided for situations where the president was not dead but incapacitated. 

So there was this sort of grey area about like if the president was in a coma, or under anesthesia, or whatever, and that’s really the origin story of what becomes the 25th amendment, which is first to sort of put what had been statutory law in to the constitution about presidential succession, but second to provide a procedure for what to do in cases in which the president is still alive but is unable to discharge his duties as president. 

And there are two different sort of buckets, there's the section 3 scenario, which is when the president himself says I can't currently discharge my duties, and so he sends a letter to that effect, and for so long as that letter is extant, the vice president serves not as the president but as the acting president. And then there's the much more controversial section 4 procedure, which is a mechanism for removing the president temporarily without his involvement.

Harry Litman [00:24:55]: This is the thing that came up with the, y’know, in March of 2017 after Comey’s firing and Rod Rosenstein invokes. So this section 4 mechanism is actually only a temporary removal.

Steve Vladeck [00:25:12]: Well it depends on how it works, right? So the way the section 4 process works is it starts with a letter from the vice president and a majority of the cabinet that says we believe the president is unable to discharge his duties, and upon the filing of that letter the vice president immediately becomes acting president. And I want to stress acting president Harry because you know the vice president does not become president until the office is actually vacant. So the vice president and the majority cabinet sends a letter, but the president can end a counter letter, and that's when all hell breaks loose. So it’s up to congress to decide whether to remove the president. And even if congress sides with the vice president, that doesn't actually remove the president from office, it just means that the vice president continues to serve as acting president. So the way that the 25th amendment is structured, the president is still the president so long as he is physically holding the office even if he’s incapacitated, whether the vice president is allowed to serve as acting president depends on whether the section 3 or section 4 procedure has been followed.

Harry Litman [00:26:20]: But now, so is there anything in between? So we have a legal protocol for actually removing the president even temporarily, anything else? Anything like, any legal mechanisms that say he’s getting really sick, or is basically an on/off switch for acting president Pence vs President Trump?

Steve Vladeck [00:26:45]: It’s an on/off switch. And the idea is, and just to be clear i mean the idea is the president being sick is not the realm of consideration, the question is whether the president is unable to discharge the duties of his office, which i think is much more meant to be about his physical and mental capacity than about like, is he bedridden. As long as Pence is there and fine, we don't have to get into the messier authority question of who’s behind Pence. Cause the 25th amendment doesn't actually speak to what happens in cases in which both officers are disabled, and that's where we get into the much messier discussion about the presidential succession act of 1947.

Harry Litman [00:27:32]: Now I remember when this came up before, is it Pelosi or is it the majority leader, etcetera.

Steve Vladeck [00:27:41]: Just to be clear, right, just since we’re here and we’re all dressed up and we might as well do this quickly.So, the presidential succession act comes into play if and only if both offices are vacant, or that’s to say there’s no president or vice president, not just that they’re disabled. And the statute at least is abundantly clear as to what happens then, right, that it’s Pelosi, and then followed by not the majority leader of the senate, but the president pro tempore of the senate Chuck Grassley, and there’s a long running academic debate about whether that statute is constitutional, I just don’t think a court in the middle of that kind of crisis is going to take that question seriously.

Harry Litman [00:28:20]: I agree. Alright, so we can set that question to the side and see this as the kind of extreme legal mechanism that at least — 

Steve Vladeck [00:28:30]: — ensures some continuity of governance.

Harry Litman [00:28:31]: Yeah, ok. Now, you raised the election, so let's talk about the election.

Steve Vladeck [00:28:38]: So, I mean, it’s worth stressing that plenty of people have already voted, right so it’s not like the election is 31 days away, the election is underway. So here’s where it gets really messy, and here’s where if folks are interested I would really refer you to the election law blog run by our friend Rick Hasen, which has some really great resources on this. But heres the really short short version, it really varies by state. So there's no mechanism for removing someone from the ballot who is sick. As long as Trump is, I don't mean to be macabre, but as long as the candidate is alive, nothing happens. I mean obviously it might affect how people vote, but it won't actually change the substance. 

Harry Litman [00:29:16]: But even though it's by state, because there’s no state that so provides?

Steve Vladeck [00:29:20]: There's no state that says, the middle of the election the party can sort of dump someone who’s living. All of the states that have these kinds of bail out provisions are all focused on cases where the candidate has died. Folks might remember, was it Mel Carnahan? RIght, the senator, the guy who wins the missouri senate race after he died? So some states would allow the state party to identify an alternative candidate up until some deadline before the election day, who then replaces Trump on the ballot, some states don't. Some states allow the certification of one person as the winner of the popular vote in the state to be superseded by a successor if that person dies, where the state basically tells its electors to vote for instead of Trump, I don’t even know who it would be, but the person who the RNC says is now the nominee. Some states don't. but the one thing that is for sure, Harry, and the one thing where there’s no debate at all is once the electoral college votes, it's up to the new congress to certify the results of what the electoral college says, and that requires the consent of both the house and the senate. So the congressional session begins on January 3rd, and by statute the electoral votes are counted in a joint session of the house and senate on January 6th.

Harry Litman [00:30:51]: So basically, if Trump is alive on November 3rd, there may be plenty of political permutations, etcetera. If on the other hand he is alive, let’s say he wins the election, but were to die between then and January 6th, then there actually might be tussles, or is it, as a practical matter, extremely clear that the next president of the United States is Pence?

Steve Vladeck [00:31:17]: So it's not clear legally, in that scenario, I mean the January 6th date looms large there, because if Congress has the opportunity to choose someone other than Trump, right, they’re not bound to choose Pence. I think politically, Harry, they would. But if something were to happen between the 6th and the 20th, I mean just cause we’re playing on all the hypotheticals, once Congress has certified the results of the election, nothing can change before the 20th. And so at noon or 11:58 on the 20th, Pence would be sworn in again to his second term as vice president, and then at noon he would become president by section 1 of the 25th amendment.

Harry Litman [00:32:05]: Wow. Now let me ask you this, and this is more terra incognita and sort of more speculation, have you thought about the implications of the virus for the nomination or confirmation hearings of justice Barrett?

Steve Vladeck [00:32:22]: So I will confess that I have, because I’m a nerd and this is what I do…

Harry Litman [00:32:27]: By the way, Mike Lee has just tested positive, so there'll be one fewer senator there.

Steve Vladeck [00:32:32]: I mean Harry, that’s interesting because of course the senate would need a quorum to function, and the democrats, if we get to a point where the republicans can't muster enough bodies, the democrats could deprive it of a quorum by not showing up.

Harry Litman [00:32:46]: By the way, just let me add to that, that's a 50/50 vote, that’s not something that Pence breaks ties on.

Steve Vladeck [00:32:51]: Yes the vice president cannot create a quorum that does not otherwise exist. So, here’s the short version, there's actually a supreme court case squarely on point, for the legal point here, which is that a supreme court justices position as a justice is not actually finalized when the senate votes their confirmation, right? It doesn't actually become finalized until their commission is signed. 

Harry Litman [00:33:19]: Yes, Marbury v. Madison.

Steve Vladeck [00:33:21]: Marbury v. Madison, and that is literally the whole thing of Marbury v. Madison. And so what that means in practice is that you could imagine a preposterous series of events where by the time the senate confirms a nominee, the opposing party now — the speaker of the house from an opposing party is now the acting president. And in that scenario, the speaker is under absolutely no obligation to sign the commission. And that’s just settled [unintelligible]. And so, is it at least possible in a crazy, farfetched hypothetical that a supreme court nomination could fail, because even though the senate approved it there was a change at the top of the executive branch while the nomination is being bandied about and the president no longer wants to sign it, yes. I mean, one of the things we thought about, this came up in the Merrick Garland scenario, where folks were talking about if Hillary won, right, McConnell might try to rush through the Garland confirmation because he feared that she would appoint someone even farther to the left. And that was never a possibility because lame duck president Obama would be under no obligation to sign the commission of his own nominee to the supreme court.

Harry Litman [00:34:33]: Thanks very much Steve Vladeck. .To listen to the whole conversation with Steve, also our conversation with Frank Figliuzzi on how Trump's diagnosis is likely to impact national security, and our conversation with Dr. Carl Bergstrom on Trump’s medical conditions and concerns, you can go to our Patreon site, patreon.com/talkingfeds , where all three conversations will be free until October 8th. Normally, as you know, that’s for subscribers only, but given the importance of the news we’re making them available to all for the next several days.

Harry Litman [00:36:23]: Alright, I'd like to move now to the manifold political implications here. Let's start with the president. There's a op-ed I think in the Post today saying, Oh, here's his big chance to be a sympathetic figure.

On the one hand, he really seems like completely chastized for his own cavalier attitude toward the virus and almost being triumphant about being careless.

On the other, here's the president of the United States, our commander in chief and he is pretty sick. And you rally around the flag. How do you see this kind of playing for him?

Michael Schmidt [00:37:02]: I think we just don't know. It's just so uncharted and unusual. And Trump is just such an unusual political character that trying to predict how people will respond to this, and whether there would be sympathy for him, someone that very few people have had sympathy for, besides his base throughout his presidency, it just seems incalculable. And the fact that it comes at the heat of the political moment of his presidency just makes it all the more harder to sort of play out in, in your own mind. So, I don't know. And I know that's not really satisfying, but it just, Trump is just so unusual. And he has defied so many of the normal laws of gravity that we thought existed in Washington, that who knows and who knows how he could use an event like this to his own advantage.

Harry Litman [00:37:54]: On the one hand, he is the winner. You're going to be sick and tired of so much winning, and this is not winning. On the other hand, he's the man of grievance who everybody picks on and he can't get a break. And that's a big article of faith at his rallies too. And this at the vertex of both of those themes.

Michael Schmidt [00:38:13]: Yeah, but now he is the victim of something that he basically said did not exist in the form that it does, so figure that one out. 

Laura Coates [00:38:22]: I mean in terms of the, the brand as well. I mean, I do think that his ability to be sympathetic is going to largely be in the way in which he deals with it going forward, the way in which he characterizes the illness, the way in which he could use this as an opportunity to go from consoler in chief, because now that it's happened to him, now the epiphany could set in.

However, I do think about that moniker Teflon Don. And I do think about the recent comments he's made that some criticized as being almost a eugenics based argument. When he made comments about the strength and the genes of people as a way for them to be able to withstand this. And I'm thinking about Vladmir Putin's comments today, he alerted through that official telegram saying, you know, I know that your agility and, basically your composition will allow you to ride out the storm.

I almost tend to cringe thinking about that moniker of Teflon Don, because I'm so concerned that whatever his individual experience will be with COVID-19, that will become some sort of litmus test on how others are sympathetic or empathetic towards other people. I don't wish that it's going to be something obviously fatal or wish that it's going to be horrific for the president.

But I do believe that based on the way that he has been able to attach marionette strings to a whole host of people who think this has been a conspiracy theory all this time, I could foresee people looking at his experience and saying, okay, well, if it's only mild for him, that must be the way it is for everyone else.

Or if it's really bad for him, and that must be the way it could be. And so I wonder how much even he can be in control of the sympathy, because once you ring that bell, it's hard to unring it. Once people believe that one person can be the litmus test or one person can determine whether it's a grand conspiracy or not, he may be on a runaway train and not the one Biden's campaigning on.

Harry Litman [00:40:18]: Right. 

Norm Ornstein [00:40:19]: So we know that there are going to be a lot more people surrounding the administration who are likely to come down with COVID. The Barrett event appears to be a super spreader event, and the video of Mike Lee going around and hugging all kinds of people who did not have masks.

Some of his colleagues there, what we saw likely happen and with Air Force One, and I'm already seeing on Twitter, some of his followers with a kind of conspiracy, why is it only hitting Republicans? So, it's going to be like, this is not because they flouted all of the rules and norms. It's going to be something that Democrats did to try and bring down the president.

I don't think many others are going to see that. it's obviously ridiculous, but what we don't know now is how a campaign plays out. We may not have more debates. The next debate was supposed to be a town hall, it was going to be a very different dynamic. Who knows if he'll be able to do that, what will this do to the enthusiasm of his supporters if they're starting to think that maybe they're not voting for Donald Trump, but voting for Mike Pence? What will happen with Biden and the nature of his campaign?

He's now suspended negative ads, but you know, we're going to be in a different world for the next week or two or three. I can't see a lot of people who are not Trump supporters feeling sympathy for him because he's a victim here. He is not a victim in most of the ways in which we would characterize it.

But I think Michael is right. We're in uncharted territory here in terms of how all of this plays out psyche and with a campaign. One thing that may happen, if he were mildly symptomatic, stuck in the White House and did nothing but tweet for two weeks, we would see many more attempts to incite the proud boys and others to get out there and maybe even have more violence. If he's unable to do that, and he's not using that trigger, maybe that alters some of the nature of the voting taking place over the next few weeks.

Laura Coates [00:42:14]: One of the odd things about this, of course, people have already started voting. 

Harry Litman [00:42:16]: Yeah. The election’s on already.

Laura Coates [00:42:19]: The election is ongoing. I mean, it's right here. Even before he was diagnosed, people had voted and he has obviously had a lot to say about the integrity of mail-in invalid much to my chagrin as a former voting rights attorney and civil rights, but the idea of, the people have already begun. You almost wonder how much impact could it have because some people have already cast their ballots, maybe even believing they were voting for Trump.

And may ultimately have to reconcile the question you raised, Norm about, well, what will this mean if it’s Pence for any moment in time or what will it mean if it's Biden at any point in time? And so, it's almost ironic that the very thing that he has been trying to downplay, through his own admission to Bob Woodward and others figures, has already preempted the ability of this to have an impact on people who've already voted. 

Michael Schmidt [00:43:07]: But the other thing is, is that he has so many self inflicted wounds that if you were to be down for two weeks and just sort of recovering. He can almost benefit from that because he's not out there doing the things that so undermine himself politically, and people have said that like, if he just locked himself in the residence for two weeks and just didn't say anything, there may be more confidence in his behavior or his abilities.

Harry Litman [00:43:34]: Now, of course, as all of you guys say, if he does this for two weeks, if he does this for three weeks, we're talking about 50%, 75% of the time between now and the election. All this is happening in the last five minutes of the game, which is another complicating factor. Especially if you accept the conventional wisdom about the dynamic, which is that he's got to do something to reverse the trend or he is going to lose come November.

Laura Coates [00:44:04]: As Michael was talking about, the idea of the very thing that the debate moderator Chris Wallace wanted to do was muzzle the president.

And a lot of people were speaking about this idea of what hurt him most was the idea and the debate, according to polling and people's commentary on it, was that he was continuing to create these self-inflicted wounds to the he point that his candidacy and campaign became like Swiss cheese. And it was on top of, of so many other things he'd already done.

But I have to say, we're talking about a very unconventional president who has bucked a lot of norms in terms of the political process, but even with the idea of listening to experts and deferring to their judgment about COVID-19, he has not adhered to these. So I have to say, I am reluctant to even be convinced that he will in fact abide by what is supposed to happen over the next two weeks.

I don't know if we really can say here with such absolute confidence that the same person who has not abided by or conveyed this to the general public would say, you know what? I think I'm going to quarantine myself for 14 days. I'm not going to be on the campaign trail about 30 or so days, if we're a very consequential election in my life, I have doubts whether he will actually abide or continue to buck the experts in the system.

Michael Schmidt [00:45:23]: If Trump is feeling better on Wednesday, does he say, gotta go back out on the trail! I mean, I know that sounds a little farfetched, but if he was ok on Wednesday, do you think he would really say like, I'm going to sit around for another two weeks as my political future is, you know, in the balance?

Laura Coates [00:45:40]: No, I don't think he will. I, and I don't say that to be dismissive of the gravity of what we're talking about. I see this as somebody who, as Warren was saying as you've been saying, as Mike has been saying, as the world has been saying, this is somebody who has made comments, even in Duluth, Minnesota, my home state, where he was tossing out hats to people before we knew about his diagnosis, where he made comments about how Democrats would like to continue the shutdown because they care more about politics than lives. The idea of politicizing COVID-19, it's been a topic from Florida to Seattle, it's been a discussion. And so I think that for somebody who has said he believes that this is a politicization attempt and a political attempt to try to undermine his candidacy, his presidency, his impact on the economy.

I don't think it's very farfetched to presume that he would be extraordinarily reluctant and perhaps even refuse to just sit by the wayside, even if it means that it's contrary to science. We've seen that he's gone contrary to science and I didn't know if the task force members who are these learned individuals with such expertise have even been consulted into what's happened to this point with the president.

Harry Litman [00:46:57]: Norm, do you see any way he can use this to try to postpone the election date?

Norm Ornstein [00:47:03]: So, well first, no. He has no role in that. Of course that's never stopped him before. If he called for it, it would require Congress passing a law, which will not happen, but let me just respond to my fellow Minnesotan.

Laura Coates [00:47:18]: Yeah, sure!

Norm Ornstein [00:47:19]: One thing we have to keep in mind is the comment to Bob Woodward. Which was stunning that this wasn't just an ignoramus who was completely casting aside facts and science, he knew perfectly well and then turned it into his own advantage.

But he is supremely interested in his own self health and worth. So if doctors told him privately, if you go back out on the campaign trail that could kill you, I doubt he will do that. If he decided himself and maybe getting advice from Dr. Bornstein or Ronny Jackson that he's okay, and he decided to take it, he would ignore what Anthony Fauci or anybody else said.

 I agree, but let's keep something else in mind. What we know of the science here is once you get tested positive, the worst symptoms usually appear five to seven days in. We don't know exactly how many days in he is, but it's more likely if he's not doing well now that he's going to get worse in the next few days.

And let's also keep in mind that a guy of his age, who is at minimum obese and very possibly morbidly obese, who in the past has been unable to walk 50 yards without getting in a golf cart, that the mortality rate for people in that setting is not 1% or a half of a percent. It's nine or 10%. That could lead us into truly uncharted territory. 

And of course we know, one of the things that I've written in the past is all of the different scenarios. What happens if a presidential candidate dies at certain stages of the campaign? After you can't reprint ballots, before you've had the election itself, after the election before the electors are chosen, after the electors are chosen before they vote, after they vote before Congress convenes, all of these different scenarios offer different possibilities and we could be in a territory where  we're going to have to bring back some of that stuff and consider it.

Harry Litman [00:49:16]: Yeah, it's so true. And as Steve Vladeck just explained in his Sidebar, depending on the day —  November 2nd, November 4th, January 6th, January 20th —  you get all these different and sometimes conflicting scenarios. I want to talk just briefly about the potential political consequences, if any, for the Amy Coney Barrett nomination.

How do you see this? I think we've all admitted through this hour, we don't have the crystal ball and it's especially cloudy here, but what are some of the things that you consider when you think about the combination of this news and the confirmation hearings scheduled to begin on the 12th of October. Is this in some jeopardy and what's the dynamic here? 

Norm Ornstein [00:50:08]: So, one, she tested positive before, but you can get it again. So we have that phenomenon. We know that I'm sitting at the Rose Garden ceremony, you not only having Mike Lee without a mask, you had Josh Hawley, Ben Sasse, who had a half mask on and a bunch of other senators. And then after he was symptomatic, Lee went to the hearing and most of the senators, including some Democrats, including Diane Feinstein, were not wearing masks and he was shouting. We could see many senators, many senators could come down with it. If we got sicker and couldn't show up for a vote, it would only take one more Republican in that setting before you wouldn't have the 50 votes that they needed to actually confirm Barrett.

And they may have to postpone the hearing, even though Lindsay Graham said he won't, we could end up in a setting where they aren't able to get a vote until after the election. This really does create a problem for them, a potential problem. They're going to try and jam it through obviously as fast as they possibly can, but it may not be possible.

Michael Schmidt [00:51:11]: I think what Norm is saying, is that for this confirmation to get through before the election, everything has to go perfectly for them. Everything has to line up and there's some chance that everything could line up, but now you've taken this big factor and you've put it in the mix. And the chances of that has to be smaller because you got more stuff at play here. 

Well, okay, so Mike Lee. If Mike Lee has it today and he has to quarantine for two weeks, that means that, does he miss the first hearing? So if he's the only one, is he healthy enough to come and go? Does it matter if he's at a hearing? Probably not, but there's only so much time here. And the more variables, the less likely it is to happen.

Laura Coates [00:51:59]: Well, you know, the other thing we're talking about scenarios that kick the can down the road, but they don't actually remove the can. I mean, this is the idea of whether she'll be confirmed prior to the election or whether she'll be confirmed perhaps prior to an inauguration, even if there's a different president, of course.

I mean, this is a scenario where, although much to my chagrin about the judicial selection process here that said to the world, we've got all the confirmation votes before we even knew who the nominee was, talk about putting the cart before the horse. I think we have a scenario where I think Democrats are concerned that there is an inevitability of her being confirmed at the Senate, but I think it does have an impact on which senators even, if the Senate somehow flips, that new class does not automatically come in until January, even if you have that Senator, if he's elected out of Arizona, Mark Kelly. 

You know, I think that for a lot of people, this idea of the wheels being set in motion has a very big impact them the way they don't see a lot of perhaps optimism and being able to change the nominee, even if just delaying it could be an issue, but I don't see this particular issue being one that's going to remove her from the nomination process. 

Harry Litman [00:53:21]: All right. And that leads us directly to our final feature, because we're out of time of Five Words or Fewer in which we each have to answer in five words or fewer, the question from Julie Jones from Twitter is, if more GOP senators become positive and there aren't enough votes to confirm Barrett, what would happen? Five words or fewer, do you wanna start, Norm?

Norm Ornstein [00:53:46]: We don’t have a clue.

Michael Schmidt [00:53:50]: It'll go to the next president. Goes to the next president, I can’t count.

Harry Litman [00:53:55]: Goes to next president. How's that? 

Laura Coates [00:53:58]: I mean, I'm going to say, Democrats will very much rejoice. There you go.

Harry Litman [00:54:07]: I'll say. McConnell tries to legislate solution. 

Thank you very much to Laura, Norm, and Michael, and thank you very much, litneers, for tuning in to Talking Feds. If you like what you've heard, please tell a friend to subscribe to us on Apple Podcasts, or wherever they get their podcasts, and please take a moment to rate and review this podcast. You can follow us on Twitter @TalkingFedsPod to find out about future episodes and other feds related content. You can check us out on the web, talkingfeds.com , where we have full episode transcripts. 

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Talking Feds is produced by Jennifer Bassett and Rebecca Lowe Patton. Our editor is Justin Wright. David Lieberman and Rosie Don Griffin are our contributing writers. Production assistance by Matt McArdle. Our consulting producer is Andrea Carla Michaels. Thanks very much to professor Steven Vladeck for our version of the Sidebar today and the legal implications of Trump’s possible incapacitation. Our gratitude as always to the amazing Philip Glass, who graciously lets us use his music. Talking Feds is a production of Dalito, LLC. I'm Harry Litman, see you next time.

JUDGING AMY

Harry Litman [00:01:16]: Welcome to Talking Feds, a round table that brings together prominent former federal officials and special guests for a dynamic discussion of the most important political and legal topics of the day. I'm Harry Litman. President Trump introduced the country to Amy Coney Barrett this week, inaugurating a sprint to a confirmation hearing just five weeks before the election 

Barrett however, has been well known for many years to the president and especially the group of Federalist society stalwarts he looks to for his Supreme court picks. She has all the right stuff to cement in an impermeable hard right majority at the court, along with Trump's other two picks and rock rib conservatives, Clarence Thomas and Sam Alito.

No, it's the apotheosis of a carefully curated decades long project now succeeding beyond all measure to pack the court with representatives of the very far right. Barrett impresses on many levels, and her former students and colleagues shower praise on her, not just for her legal chops, but for her calm and respectful manner.

But for many Democrats her nomination sticks in the throat like a chicken bone, the Republican's slow strangulation of the Merrick Garland nomination, ostensibly to let the people decide with the presidential election coming up, cannot be squared with the current rush to confirmation, and the attempted explanations just come off as the height of hypocrisy.

And then there's also just the cosmic bad luck for progressives, that Republicans have secured 14 of the last 18 nominations while winning the popular vote only once in the last seven elections. The flat fact is that there are no longer rules or norms of bipartisanship in the Senate, and only the law of the jungle remains. Mitch McConnell has broken the Senate, all of this has Democrats spitting mad, but with no real way to stop another razor thin loss, and threatening extreme measures to set the world more right, should they sweep the table in November. 

That is, should they sweep the table, and Trump agree to go away. A rock solid postulate of democratic self-governance on which he seems determined to cast doubt. And to dissect the bear nomination and all it portends, we have a fantastic group of some of the sharpest legal and political commentators in the country. They are, first: Dahlia Lithwick. Dahlia is a senior editor at Slate, where she writes Supreme court dispatches and jurisprudence, and where she hosts their fantastic Supreme Court podcast, Amycus. In 2018, she won the Hillman prize for opinion and analysis journalism. The judges described her as the nation's best legal commentator for the last two decades. Dahlia, welcome back to Talking Feds. 

Dahlia Lithwick [00:04:10]: Thank you for having me back. 

Harry Litman [00:04:12]: Joe Lockhart: Joe was press secretary under president Clinton from 1998 to 2000. He previously was press secretary to a number of prominent officials, including Walter Mondale and Michael Dukakis. And through his communications consulting firm, Glover park Group, he worked for Facebook from 2011 to 2012, and, later, the National Football League. Thanks for being here, Joe. 

Joe Lockhart [00:04:38]: Glad to be back again, Harry.

Harry Litman [00:04:39]: Finally, Bret Stephens comes to Talking Feds for the first time. Bret is a Pulitzer prize winning journalist, editor, and columnist. .He is a senior contributor to NBC news, and an opinion columnist for the New York Times, and previously worked for the Wall Street Journal as a foreign affairs columnist, where he won his Pulitzer prize for commentary in 2013. Bret, thank you for joining us on Talking Fits 

Bret Stephens [00:05:06]: It's an honor to be in overmatched company. 

Harry Litman [00:05:09]: It's not a contest, except in the Senate and the country. Let's start with the nomination of Judge Barrett, or let's actually start with her qualifications. We’re told that this time, president Trump met with her for two hours, as opposed to the previous go round when she had conjunctivitis and was wearing sunglasses, and it didn't go that well. 

Do we think that's right? Do we think that this was his sort of personal rapport and choice? He said it was going to be a woman, she was so far the class of the field. Was it really his selection, or has he determined to be guided by the Federalist society advisers here for whom I think it's clear. She stood head and shoulders apart from the other candidates. 

Bret Stephens [00:05:56]: I know from some of my reporting that Trump did give some serious consideration to Barbara Lagoa for clear electoral reasons. She's from Florida, she's Hispanic. Of course, Trump had said that he would name a woman, so she fit that bill as well.

And there was some real pushback in the conservative community because conservatives have a long memory of nominating people who are ideological ciphers to them, David Souter comes to mind, and then finding themselves disappointed by some of their jurisprudence over the years. 

So in Amy Coney Barrett, they knew they had someone who could not have had more clear conservative bonafides, especially her clerkship for Judge Scalia. But the other issue is that in 2017, when she was for her appellate judgeship, Diane Feinstein made what to me was really a bigoted comment about her religious faith. And I think there was some thinking among Trump's political team that Democrats in a hearing might be goaded to go down the same road as before. 

And that might play very well for Trump, with wavering Catholic voters in places like Wisconsin. So she appealed to the conservative base, but she also, I think the thought was that she's just the kind of conservative that might drive Democrats foolishly around the bend in ways that hurt the Democrats.

Harry Litman [00:07:23]: She really did, Feinstein did, step in it and make a bad mistake and it kind of made Barrett a bit of a hero in an evangelical's eyes, the dogma lives within you. So she wasn't simply malignized by the Federalist, but also had this other important constituency. But just to follow up, even if, I guess there's another way to put it.

My sense was always, he signaled pretty early that he wanted her, but had he signaled for Lagoa, I just think a steady procession of Federalist society types would have shown up in the office and said, you got to go for Barrett. I mean, they care about this, I would say even more than they care about Trump.

He's played by their playbook for the last two, and really successfully is probably the one, or at least most successful aspect of his presidency. So I think it was likely that this is the way it had to be among those three candidates. 

Dahlia Lithwick [00:08:20]: I was just going to sort of make a different variation on the same two points. One is, it's clear that the Federalist society helmed by Leonard Leo, have developed this network of donor groups that we don't know where the money's coming from or where it goes, but we know that it's about a quarter of a billion dollar war chest, and that those groups are really, really angry at having seated two Supreme court justices on Trump's watch and still not gotten the outcomes that they wanted.

For instance in June medical, this last term and title seven, this last term. And so I think there's an immense amount of pressure, how is it possible that you've seated two justices and we're still not with a five, four court getting the outcomes we paid for? So I think that suggests to me that the Federalist society and those donors had a lot to say about this, and that it wasn't entirely up to Trump's whim.

The other thing I'll say, and this just follows on what both you and Bret said, is that I think in some sense, Amy Coney Barrett has laid this amazing, amazing trap because she's written extensively, as an academic matter, about the same kinds of things that justice Scalia wrote about as an academic matter.

He started writing about this in a really provocative article in First Things about what is a Catholic justice to do when they're faith can't be reconciled with constitutional prerogatives and she kind of picked up the baton, wrote elaborately about that. And so it's a complete lose-lose for Democrats.

They feel that of course they have to challenge her on these questions. She's kind of put it into evidence and she's suggested a willingness to enter into this kind of third rail conversation nobody will have. And at the same time, there's no way to question her about it without looking like a bigot. And I think that that must be just completely delicious in terms of this nomination. 

Joe Lockhart [00:10:18]: So I would disagree with only one thing there, which is I do think there is a way to question this without being a bigot. And I'd say Charles Grassley, who opened her circuit court hearing with a very respectful question about her religious beliefs.

I agree with the panel that Diane Feinstein did not, but think Democrats need to be careful in how they do that, but there is a way to do it. And remember, there's two levels to this: there is the level inside the Senate and inside Washington of whether she'll be confirmed or not. And that's basically decided. The second and much more interesting level cause it hasn't been decided is, what impact is this gonna have on the presidential race and the Senate races? So I think that's what will motivate Democrats in the way they question her and the issues they questioned her on. My guess is that a lot of Democrats will spend more time on the affordable care act than they will on her religious beliefs.

But I do think they will do it, but they will do it in a very careful way that will remind voters, particularly suburban women, that Roe v. Wade is going to be dead if this happens and I'm going to blame Donald Trump, Mitch McConnell, and the Republican senators who are up in vulnerable for that outcome.

Harry Litman [00:11:32]: It is a little bit unfair, the trap the Democrats are in. Cause it's in fact in no way really is it to question her basic Catholicism or her faith, but she's got some pretty marginal either beliefs or practices, right? Should the people of praise, a group she belongs to seem to believe in divine prophecy, seem to have a view that the husband must be the leader in the marriage and the life. 

That's fair game in one sense, but maybe after Feinstein it's just a political loser, if what you are thinking of is down the line. I want to turn to her qualifications and competence. You have a lot of people, Noah Feldman, a well known professor at Harvard law school has been out on the hustings saying she deserves to be on the Supreme court.

I disagree with her, but she's brilliant. And she is in his words, a sincere loving person. And by the way, for what it's worth, the people I've talked to on all sides of the aisle agree with both aspects of that. So let's take that as a given, assuming that is a given, does that, in 2020 with the court as it is, state a sufficient case for her confirmation? Let's say she is qualified, and not even so much politically, but just really in the abstract. Should that suffice for her elevation? 

Bret Stephens [00:12:56]: Yes, it's for the same reason that I thought Elena Kagan was qualified, for the same reason that I thought Steve Briar and RBG were qualified. The question for me isn't whether it suffices for her confirmation, it's whether it suffices for her confirmation before the 20th of January. The root of my objection isn't to Amy Coney Barrett, the root of my objection is to a Senate majority leader who has no scruple, including when it comes to rather ostentatiously breaking a word that he prominently made just four years ago, he's setting up a situation in which never again will we be able to appoint a Supreme Court justice unless the president and the majority leader in the Senate belong to the same party.

Joe Lockhart [00:13:41]: Yeah, I would add that I agree with Bret that those are very qualified people and that, you know, John Roberts was qualified, and people on the right, but I would also mention that Merrick Garland was qualified, just as qualified as Judge Barrett.

And we all know that story. We all know the hypocrisy. I think as a political matter, though, the Democrats have to get past the hypocrisy. We've won that fight, and that fight has and will have an impact on the election. I can't measure it right now, but there's some polling out that shows that particularly suburban women disagree strongly with the idea that he is graming this through Congress.

We can't get any more points on that beyond just stating the obvious. Democrats have to move it on to another playing field, which as I mentioned is the affordable care act, which is Roe v. Wade, which is pro-corp interest, as opposed to pro-working people, all of the environmental versus environmentalist.

All of the issues that Democrats think will help them in the election, because this confirmation hearing and it's I guess unusual that one vice presidential candidate will be sitting, asking questions, I would think, is not about her confirmation. It's about what's going to happen November 3rd. 

Dahlia Lithwick [00:14:52]: I would add to Joe because I've been turning this over in the last three, four days. There's a lot of, I think not great advice being directed at Senate Democrats, suggesting they should just sit it out. Just take 10. Don't do it. Don't show up. Don't legitimize a process that you claim to be illegitimate. I will say from having sat through the Neil Gorsuch hearing that Democrats tried to have it both ways there.

They tried to rail against the illegitimate process and also attack him on the merits. And it failed spectacularly. I think you can't do both those things. And so then there is this purely political question that I would spike back to Joe, which is, does it make sense to just say we're not showing up.

We are not, you never left the country meet Merrick Garland. We're not going to let the country meet Amy Coney Barrett and just, we're just going to go go, go, go on healthcare. And we're going to go, go, go on other issues and not talk about her at all. And I think Joe is quite right. That probably as a stunt gives you about a day of salience.

And I think after that, you've seeded the ground. You're going to allow the white house and the GOP utterly control the narrative as they roll out this person who is flawless in every way. And I think that's also lose-lose. So my sense is that the argument that Dems shouldn't show up is shortsighted, but I do think Dems have to show up and do exactly the thing that you're hearing, which is talk about stare decisis.

Judge Barrett, you say you don't believe in it. Justice Scalia said he believed in it. He said that Clarence Thomas, who didn't believe in stare decisis was quote, “a nut.” What does it mean to not believe in stare decisis? What constrains you? Judge Barrett, let's talk about your writing's about abortion. Let's talk about your writings about guns, and just focus on guns, abortion, health care, the issues that voters feel they would like to have something say in in this election and they don't want it decided by Fiat, by someone who was rammed through. I think that's the only way to go. If Joe thinks I'm wrong, I'd love to hear it. 

Joe Lockhart [00:17:01]: No, no, I think you're absolutely right. In some sense, a very unusual presidential campaign because of COVID and because of Donald Trump, there's just nothing like this that I've seen in the last 40 years, now added a new element, which is the campaign will be fought by proxy within the Senate judiciary committee.

And I think Democrats on the committee are very aware of that. Republicans on the committee are very aware of that, and all of the speeches the members give will be on an eye towards reaching voters, as opposed to putting her in a corner or trying to show that she's not qualified, where I think what the Democrats want to do and have to do is show that Donald Trump, Mitch McConnell, the Federalist society is very bad for working people, average Americans, particularly for women. And you don't get to decide where a campaign is fought, it's fought where the battle breaks out. And for the last three weeks of the campaign, we're going to be in the middle of this. 

Harry Litman [00:18:01]: Yeah. And so I agree with this point, although there's an interesting dynamic people who like Trump and Trump himself put a lot of stock in his seeing a quote unquote winner.

Which he really hasn't been, but I think they need to be fighting and struggling in a passionate way, without looking like they've lost this terrible battle and are losers. That's an overall political point. 

Joe Lockhart [00:18:25]: One of the things that I noticed in the Kavanaugh hearing was it was very odd. Since Trump was elected, I probably talk more to Republicans now than I talked to Democrats. The sort of never Trumpers, the people who, you know, just viscerally hate Trump. Yeah. When Kavanaugh came out, we remembered what it was to be different, Republicans and Democrats, all of those people, all of a sudden were arguing with me again.

And that's not a bad thing. It's actually probably a good thing for the country. Democrats, I don't, I think we'll make a mistake if they try to make this specifically about Trump and lose, because they don't want to give Republicans a reason to rally around the president. So I think they are walking a very delicate tightrope on this.

And we could talk a little bit about what the Democrats will do if elected, that's another tightrope, but it is, it's a difficult political situation for both parties. And we're going to find out in real time who's smarter about this. 

Harry Litman [00:19:22]: Right. And it might of course depend on the senators asking questions, in some ways, the first questioners, the older ones, are less [unintelligible], et cetera.

And I don't want to talk about both those points, but first I want to double back to the main question, cause I sense that I have a lone dissent to offer when I say that it's appropriate to oppose her confirmation, notwithstanding her excellence in all these respects and look, the people you've named, Steven Briar, Merrick Garland, Elena Kagan, all the way across the board.

Amy Barrett are all competent Supreme court justice nominees, I agree. But imagine that they're all like in a stadium somewhere, you have everybody who's qualified sitting, and we're going to be looking at a court drawn five of them from like one little section on the second tier there. That's a bad turn of events for the court when it's happened in the past, and this is somewhat more dramatic even then say, the FDR days. It's put the court out of step, and the results that it will lead to the things you're talking about on the ACA and Roe v. Wade are bad for the people. And I think the sheer lopsidedness of where this is now taking the court really matters.

Yes, she is qualified, but so are very many. And it's wrong and bad for our institutions and for what may ensue over the next 20, 30, 40 years that have this hammer lock majority drawn from a self-consciously stratum of, you can argue the most extreme 5%, 2%. They are going to issue decision after decision in the next generation that the smartest minds in the legal profession, other judges will all say they are wrong. And that may well deprive people of important liberties. That's just not a good place for the Supreme court to be, thoughts? 

Bret Stephens [00:21:26]: Can I offer just a thought, and I think I may be the only non lawyer here, so take it as a comment from a non-expert, but I've been following the Supreme court since I guess the Bork nomination when I was reasonably sentient, and every single time a Republican president has named a justice or a name or nominated a justice, the usual organs of liberal opinion have yelled from the rooftops. 

With Anthony Kennedy, Roe V. Wade is dead. What does Anthony Kennedy do? He's the swing vote in casing. With David Souter, the court swings all too far to the right, Souter turned out to be a liberal. John Roberts saved the ACA. Neil Gorsuch was supposed to be as hard right as they come, the ideal Federalist candidate. 

And here we are less than three years into Gorsuch's tenure, and he is already offering us unexpected opinions on sex discrimination and other issues. And so the Supreme court apocalypse that has been predicted by center and left of center court watchers, just hasn't quite materialized. 

The usual way this breaks down is that the liberal block remains pretty consistently liberal, two or three conservatives remain consistently conservative. And then two Republican appointees ended up being kind of the surprise swing voters or maybe three. And that's the way it's worked out. So I just, I just offer that to our listeners as a bit of a bit of history that the devil has not shown up yet on the Supreme court, just hasn't happened.

Dahlia Lithwick [00:23:03]: So I would just offer two brief counters. One is that I think if you only look at abortion, you can make some version of the argument that Bret just made, which is yet again, this term, surprisingly, John Roberts swung and aligned himself with the liberals to preserve the core of it. But I think if you look at everything else that the Roberts court has achieved, it is just not true to say that it has not moved the country dramatically to the right in a whole bunch of areas.

You can talk about voting rights and Shelby County. You can talk about political gerrymandering. You can talk about workers' rights. You can talk about other women's rights. You can talk about just this vast deregulatory project that I think we have not begun to see the effects of. So I just think if you cabinet to abortion, it's an easier argument to make.

I think abortion stands alone. It's an outlier, but I think in a whole bunch of other contexts, it's just factually, I think descriptively not true that the court has not moved very far to the right. And I think that amazing New York Times piece they did in July where they compared where the court is with polling tells you how out of step the court has been.

But I just would say as a purely empirical matter, I think the great liberal Richard Posner has that great study, that Posner Landis study from a few years ago. Showing that of the 10 most conservative jurists to sit court in the last hundred years, five of them were on the current court. And that was when Anthony Kennedy was still seated.

So I just think even if you look at it purely empirically, the court is very very much further to the right than it has been. Is there a devil on the court? I don't know that that's the question. I think that we have the most conservative court we've had since the New Deal indisputably, and it's about to become more so, and Neil Gorsuch becomes the swing vote.

Bret Stephens [00:24:58]: Well, just, just very briefly Dahlia. And you, you outmatched me in terms of your, your knowledge of the court, I'm happy to concede that. 2015, this is the court that made marriage equality the law of the land, and conservatives certainly don't feel that they are getting the court they either paid for through the Federalist society or voted for when they cast their ballots for Trump, for George H.W. Bush or George W. Bush. I mean, I don't know what the metric is here, but most Republicans feel that the court lets them down just as often as it stands with them.

Joe Lockhart [00:25:32]: One other point, and I think looking backwards, you can make both of those cases and they both make good points. I think you need to look forward here, and there's one big difference, which is most of the presidents, whether they Democrat or Republican, used to go in and their number one thing was, can I get this person confirmed, because I need 60 votes and the big difference now, when you only need 51 votes, or 50 and the vice president is you, you get to now use this as much more of a political cudgel than finding someone who's a consensus candidate. 

So the Republicans are in power now, they're not going to get surprised because they have the ability to get anyone through. I mean, I was tweeting earlier this week that Republicans would confirm a goldfish because they all said they were for the person before they even know who the person was. That makes a big difference going forward, and I just think it will test Bret’s theory. I don't know whether we'll be surprised due to the law of unintended consequences, but we do live in a different world now than we have for seven of the justices on the court. 

Harry Litman [00:26:38]: Yeah. I just want to add a couple of quick points and then we will move to our Sidebar, but Bret first, I think that's a really important point you raised, people have been saying it forever. For my own part, I have not been saying it forever, and I am now saying in fact: Hey, the sky is falling when you have these five together. So that's one point, but there's a related argument, which is the Dems are always saying, “Oh my God, this guy is the right wing 2%. And the Republicans are always answered.” No, he's a solid or she's a solid center right person, maybe in the 60th percentile. But I do think it's pretty strong evidence that there's been this very conscious process on the right, curated by the Federalist society to really have people who in their law schools, in their professions are proudly very much on the margins.

And that all five now of the people we're talking about, that was their solid professional identity. So it's a strong counterpoint to saying that we don't have the suitors in the same way anymore, because there's been such a kind of minor league system to develop potential justices for so long. 

Dahlia Lithwick [00:27:54]: I would just say, there's another really good explanation for the asymmetry.

The explanation is Steve Briar and Elena Kagan defect half the time, and no liberal, no liberal calls for their heads. There isn't a war chest to get them off the court. There are no Democrats in the Senate saying they should be impeached. John Roberts sneezes funny, and Josh Holly and Ted Cruz are saying, well, he's dead to us.

So I think that the demands of loyalty and the demands of fealty, the implication that if Anthony Kennedy flips once on Obergefell, he's dead to the conservative movement. There's just no analog on the left. There just isn't. 

Bret Stephens [00:28:35]: Okay. I mean, I just, for the record, what was it, March? It was just before COVID, what did Schumer say that he then apologized for? That justices, he said Roberts and I think it was Kavanaugh, or Gorsuch or Kavanaugh would pay the price that you won't know what hit you if they rule against reproductive rights. I mean, this is, let's be honest. This is a game that two have been playing for a long time. And I might, you know, I want to say, I mean, I guess I'm sort of the conservative on this panel, this is a case study of being careful what you wish for, right? Because I mean, I've been struck in recent days by all of this talk that's coming from the left talking about why do we have judicial supremacy anyway, you know, who was this characterJohn, John Marshall, when was this little slate of hand called Marbury v. Madison?

You know who, I last heard that from? Matt Whitaker. Remember him? Acting attorney general. And that was correctly treated as further proof that the guy was completely in over his head and had no business being even an acting AG. But for many, many years, the left saw the court I mean, certainly through the Warren years and part of the Burger years as well, the left saw the court as an instrument of social change. It did. And then the right said okay, two can play the game. And now the left is wondering, well, how did we get into this? I mean, maybe really the conversation we ought to be having is indeed, why do these nine elderly people arrogate so much power in our system of government?

I think that's a conversation worth having, but it's just worth remembering how this started when the Supreme court started taking decisions, which conservatives rebelled against precisely because they felt that it took too much power away from Congress, too much power away from the president. 

Joe Lockhart [00:30:17]: And I think from a purely political, from taking, I guess I'm the progressive on the panel here. I’ve argued that Democrats have not paid as much attention as they should to the politics of the judiciary. Republicans have made an investment both in time, money, and developing talent, and it has paid off. And if you look at this from a pure political point of view, the 

Democrats have gotten outclassed. Their response up until a couple of years ago was just keep shouting from the mountaintops and not changing their behavior. I do think that behavior will change now, and I expect you'll see, if Democrats take control of both branches of Congress and the presidency, that they will start trying to claw back some of that power from the courts, and we will be in the situation that we've been in many times in history where your ideology and ethics are situational.

If you're a state's rights person in 2000, you're more of someone who doesn't think the state should have the rights, and Democrats will argue the opposite in Bush v. Gore. This is all, like most of the things we spend time talking about, comes down to politics and power. 

Harry Litman [00:31:23]: Yeah. I'll just say, as the rule of law guy or whatever I am, that I just think Joe is right. As a matter of fact, the Republicans have placed more emphasis on it and more emphasis on certain kinds of judges than the Democrats have. 

Dahlia Lithwick [00:31:38]: I would just say the response to what both Bret and Joe are describing has structural reasons, and the structural reason is that the court was by design a counter majoritarian check.

Through most of history, it worked hand in glove with the other counter majoritarian branches, the executive and the Congress, in order to preserve white privilege and power and money powers. For a brief time, I think Bret is right as a descriptive matter, for a brief time, the court acted as a counter majoritarian check to bring us Brown v. Board to bring us Griswold v. Connecticut and its progeny.

And I think for a very long time, the court has again acted as a countermajoritarian check, except now it is again benefiting a majority that is just moneyed and white. And so it seems to me that Democrats relied way too much on the fantasy of the court as being their savior in the civil rights era.

But I think that the thing we should be worried about now is not this conversation, the structural conversation about whether Democrats should hope for the courts or not, but just realize that the courts can be deployed to help white supremacy and moneyed interests and deregulatory efforts and big business and that by design that's what's happening now.

Harry Litman [00:32:58]: Alright. And on that provocative note, it's now time to take a moment for our Sidebar feature, which explains some of the terms and relationships that are foundational to events that are typically in the news, but not necessarily explained. And this one will be on the law of self-defense, you'll recall, I've noticed generally timelines are so crazy. I just can't believe that the impeachment was less than a year ago, nor that the shooting by 17 year old Kyle Rittenhouse, who drove to Kenosha to join the fray and shot three people and killed two was just a few months ago. 

But anyway, Kyle Rittenhouse will be arguing self-defense, and we are really fortunate to have to explain to us self-defense, what for many, many years since somebody gave me Parallel Universes has been my favorite cartoonist in the country, and that is Roz Chast. Roz Chast's work has appeared in numerous magazines through the years, but she is most closely associated with the New Yorker where she has published more than 800 cartoons. She has also written and illustrated a range of books. They’re all great, but for anyone who has aging parents or has been an aging parent or know someone with an aging parent, I can't recommend highly enough, Can't We Talk About Something More Pleasant, which won a National Book Critics Circle Award, and was shortlisted in 2014 for a National Book Award. Anyway, Roz Chast now on the law of self defense. 

Roz Chast [00:34:27]: Kyle Rittenhouse, the 17 year old who drove from Illinois to join the fray in Kenosha, Wisconsin, has been charged with six felonies after he shot three people and killed two. The charges against him include first degree intentional homicide, the most serious charge available under Wisconsin law. Rittenhouse’s lawyer has said that he will admit to the shootings, but will plead his actions were justified based on self-defense. The Rittenhouse case seems to be a kind of partisan Rorschach test, but in legal terms, what is the law of self defense? And is Rittenhouse likely to plead self-defense successfully?

There are fine points of distinction in different jurisdictions, but the chief elements of self defense claim are the same across the country. And when successfully pleaded, it is a complete defense to the crime, meaning the defendant is free to go. In general, the law allows you to use deadly force to protect yourself, if you reasonably believe that one, you are in imminent danger of death or great bodily harm, and two, that your use of force is necessary to prevent either outcome. In applying the law of self-defense, all states distinguish between the use of deadly and non-deadly force. Deadly force is never justified against a non-deadly attack.

So, if and when Rittenhouse’s case goes to trial, here's what you should focus on. First is whether Rittenhouse genuinely believed that his three victims were about to inflict deadly force on him, and if so, whether RIttenhouse can prove that his belief was reasonable. Rittenhouse’s belief would be reasonable under Wisconsin law if a person of ordinary intelligence and prudence in the same circumstances would have thought the same way he did.

This may well vary by victim. Next is whether the force Rittenhouse feared from his victims was unlawful. Here too, the analysis may differ by victim. The moments leading up to the first shooting are somewhat murky, but for the second and third victims, Rittenhouse’s challenge is that he had already used deadly force, so to the extent the victims were attempting to disarm him to prevent further deaths or serious harm, their use of non-lethal force would not necessarily have been unlawful. 

Finally, consider whether Rittenhouse reasonably thought had to use deadly force. Could he have used non-lethal force, for example, a punch or a non-deadly shot? Or could he have simply run away? At trial, Rittenhouse will introduce evidence of a self defense claim, and the government will have to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that each element of the claim is faulty.

If Rittenhouse establishes all elements of self defense, he’ll walk. If instead he proves he genuinely believed that deadly force was necessary, but he fails to show that his belief was reasonable, he'll escape a first degree intentional homicide conviction, but will still be on the hook on a lesser murder charge. For Talking Feds, I'm Roz Chast.

Harry Litman [00:38:28]: Thank you very much to Roz Chast. Her most recent book written with Patricia Marx, You Can Only Yell at Me for One Thing at a Time: Rules for Couples, is especially good reading for couples in lockdown time, when people are maybe spending unusual amounts of time with their significant others.

All right, well, let's return now more to the political side of things. Let's start with this big question, when do you think the vote will be and should be? And what's, what are the different cross cutting considerations for the Rs and the Ds on that question? 

Joe Lockhart [00:39:02]: I think the Republicans will push as quickly as they can. They don't have enough time. I believe the consensus coming out of the committee is the committee vote will be October 22nd, a week or so later, it will go to the floor. They have to give a little time for debate, but this will be done. I would expect by the end of the month, three days for the washer. And there, I think there was an interesting debate internally by Republicans and this pushing it through before the election was not unanimous.

I think there are a lot of vulnerable Senate candidates who wanted to do this after the election, who wanted to have this question open for their voters so that they could say, you have to elect me so I can protect this or that, or I can make sure that something won't happen. But I think that McConnell, who counts noses and can feel the political breeze better than anyone, you know, in a generation, realized that he might not be able to get it done after the election if Democrats swept, and he can get it done now. And he's going to get it done. And I think if you're a Republican right now running a campaign or Donald Trump's campaign manager, there are two now main things to happen in this campaign. You've got three debates, and those will be over by mid or mid October, I think.

And then you have this fight, and this may be the last chance Trump has to change the dynamic in this race if the debates don't do that. So again, they may take this right to the Friday before election day as a political tool to turn out their voters. As the Democrats will be doing the same, but they don't have control of the calendar.

Bret Stephens [00:40:34]: I think you heard one of the sharper political minds in Washington, and I concur with everything he said. 

Harry Litman [00:40:40]: Are there downsides? I mean, certainly there are some candidates, right, who might prefer not to be put on the spot? You know, Susan Collins, after she's lost, if she loses, she will want to think about her future and her standing in Republican party circles.

And maybe then it's an easy vote for her. It's gotta be a hard vote kind of either way. And isn’t true even of the people who want to go forward, like Cory Gardner, et cetera, or does the political calculation seem pretty easy? And by the way, it's funny because Joe suggested maybe it's what both are spoiling for a vote before, but they can't both be right, right? Somebody, somebody might be miscalculating here, no? 

Joe Lockhart [00:41:23]: They may be miscalculating. Are they, this, this is both a strategy and execution. You can have a great strategy, if you don't execute it, it's not a great strategy anymore. So I think, you know, McConnell had a tough decision to make, which is, should I do what's in the interest of my vulnerable senators who are up, or should I try to ram this thing through, because this will have, this will be my legacy. I will be seen as the greatest Republican Senate majority leader in history cause I reshaped the courts. He took the latter. I've been in Maine for the last eight months, I'll be here for at least another year, year and a half. 

He's made Susan Collins' life impossible. The point is Collins, just take that race for a minute, he has always been helped by one, having third parties in the race, and two, being able to manage getting enough independents and Democrats, because she is seen as a compromiser and a, you know, someone who's a moderate.

She basically won over what I call the Paula Paige voters. The Trump voters in Maine by voting for Kavanaugh. She lost any chance of getting Democrats. They're just not going to vote for her, and the pool of voters is not big enough. And she's now pissed off the Paula Paige voters by saying, I don't want to have this vote. So I just don't see her way forward. 

Bret Stephens [00:42:35]: She's a, she's an object lesson in why the smart politics for any Senate candidate, even those who are on the ropes, is to vote for Barrett's confirmation. I wrote a column urging Romney to postpone, that was really on the view that not only does Romney not face reelection till 2024, but he may not even want reelection at 2024, he’s at a certain age when, I mean, he's, he's doing this for his own entertainment more than anything else. But for every other conservative in a race, this is a base turnout guarantee of vote for Barrett. And I think someone like Cory Gardner, it's going to help him a lot. He was, I think, sure to lose against Hickenlooper, he has a fighting chance right now. Martha McSally too. 

Joe Lockhart [00:43:17]: Let me offer a counter on that. And I think that Cory Gardner is the best example, which is, I believe that for him, it was a decision of, do I want to lose by 20 or do I want to lose by seven?

He could oppose this, and lose, and have the Trump base walk on him. But given the demographics of the state, you know, being a Trump Republican is almost impossible to be elected in Colorado. I don't think he'll win, I think he will lose by less. And I think that's the calculation some are making. I think the same thing for McSally, I think Joni Ernst and Thom Tillis are different because their States are different.

And Martha McSally was the first Senator out on this. The announcement was made from the court and I think she had a statement out four minutes later. 

Harry Litman [00:44:00]: It really was remarkable how everyone fell into line so quick.

Joe Lockhart [00:44:03]: But Harry, that, that explains the entire ethos of the Republican party right now. The Republican party is a party that lives in fear of a Donald Trump tweet or a Donald Trump insult.

And they know that he has control, you pick it. If it's 40% of the American public, his base, that's 70 to 80% of Republicans' space in most States. He has the ability, he has done it. He's done it to senators. It's not just a threat. There are former senators now, former members of Congress who he took on, who are now lobbyists or on the lecture circuit. And if they're a party, I think driven by the fear of what Trump has done, and they're not able to, at this point, having rolled over so many times, stand up and say, I said something from [unintelligible], I'm going to say the same thing now. And that, that works for you in the short term, in the long term, I think is generally a loser. And I think election, I think election day will prove that out in the Senate. You shouldn't listen to me, cause I thought Trump was going to lose in 2016, so what do I know.

Harry Litman [00:45:09]: As did everybody, if everyone who thought that is off the listening ranks, then there's, there's no pundits left.

Dahlia did you have any thoughts at all? I know you're mainly thinking about this from the lawyer, jurisprudential points of view, but do you have a sense of the, of how the politics work here? 

Dahlia Lithwick [00:45:25]: No, my only sense is a lawyerly sense that I think part of what we're seeing happen, and part of the explanation for why it's being rushed is I think they're building a case for vote fraud, for mail-in ballot fraud.

And I think that's been part of the utility of jumping on this nomination and making, you know, Mike Pence made the claims. Lindsey Graham is making the claims. Trump has explicitly made the claims, that the whole election is going to be stolen by these millions of fraudulent mail-in ballots, and that's why we have to see Judge Barrett immediately. I mean, it raises obviously problems for her and for the court. 

Harry Litman [00:46:04]: Oh my God. Can you imagine if this goes to them and she's on? 

Dahlia Lithwick [00:46:07]: No, I mean, campaigning on the claim that she's going to steal the election for me doesn't necessarily do anything good for the legitimacy of the court. But I do think that it's part of this sort of slow rolling construction of a record, that if you just get Bill Barr to say enough times, “all of these fraudulent mail in ballots must be thrown out and we need to be done with the count on November 3rd,” this is a really good vehicle, I think, to make that claim.

Harry Litman [00:46:37]: Well I'll just offer this. I'm not a great political analyst, and in terms of my politics, my number one, two, three planks are anybody but Trump. But from that standpoint, I really am frightened by this move, and tend to think the Republicans are calculating more intelligently the thought of a few days before the election, this kind of big win and all the distraction from COVID and everything else, I think poses a miserable prospect of a short term, just long enough return of the people who got them just over the top in 2016, to at least present an argument for what had seemed, to me anyway, to be a flailing campaign on all sides. So thinking of the vote happening on the Friday before, it makes me very sick to my stomach.

Okay. We have just a couple minutes for our final feature of Five Words or Fewer, where we take a question from a listener, and each of us asked to answer in Five Words or Fewer. Today's question comes from Martha Bevins, and it looks like it's prompted by some anxiety at the prospective confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett.

And it is: will the Supreme Court formally overrule Roe V. Wade? And if so, when? And I'll add a little clarification here, which is to say, that’s in the event that Barrett is confirmed and the Democrats don't do anything to change around the court, like enlarge its size. Five Words or Fewer, Feds. Anybody want to take a stab first?

Bret Stephens [00:48:20]: I'll go first. No, it will not ever.

Dahlia Lithwick [00:48:26]: I guess I'll say, it doesn't even need to. 

Joe Lockhart [00:48:30]: Yes it will, soon. And then my asterisk to that is, because I get an asterisk cause I went last, which was why I was so chivalrous there. I don't think the Democrats are going to come out in 2019 and say, we're going to pack the court.

I think they're going to dare the court not to overrule Roe v. Wade. And if they do, then they will deal with it. So that will be, so Bret may be right, but I think because of some leverage that we haven't seen exerted yet.

Harry Litman [00:48:58]: They will cry havoc and let slip the dogs of war. All right, no I get to go last, post prerogative, and I will say yes, 2023.

Thank you very much, Dahlia ,Joe and Bret. And thank you very much listeners for tuning in to Talking Feds. If you like what you've heard, please tell a friend to subscribe to us on Apple Podcasts, or wherever they get their podcasts, and please take a moment to rate and review this podcast. You can follow us on Twitter @TalkingFedsPod to find out about future episodes and other feds related content, and you can check us out on the web, talkingfeds.com , where we have full episode transcripts. 

You also can look to see our latest offerings on Patreon, patreon.com/knocking feds, where we post discussions about special topics exclusively for supporters. And these aren't outtakes or simply ad-free episodes, though we do have them there, but really original one-on-one discussions on important current topics. 

So just in the last few days, we've posted some fun and cool reminiscences from people who knew Justice Ruth Ginsburg. Well, in coming days, we will continue those as well as a discussion with Sam Vinograd on, is TikTok actually going away, and a book interview with Peter Strzok. 

So there's really a wealth of great stuff there, you can go look at it to see what they are without having to subscribe, and then decide if you'd like to. Submit your questions to questions@talkingfeds.com , whether it's for Five Words or Fewer, or general questions about the inner workings of our legal system for our sidebar segments. Thanks for tuning in, and don't worry: as long as you need answers, the Feds will keep talking. 

Talking Feds is produced by Jennifer Bassett and Rebecca Lowe pPatton. Our editor is Justin Wright. David Lieberman and Rosie Don Griffin are our contributing writers. Production assistance by Matt McArdle. Our consulting producer is Andrea Carla Michaels. Thanks very much to Roz Chast for schooling us on the law of self defense. Our gratitude as always to the great Philip Glass, who graciously lets us use his music. Knocking feds is a production of Dalito, LLC. I'm Harry Litman, see you next time.

HONORING RBG: MAY HER MEMORY BE A REVOLUTION

Harry Litman [00:00:03]: Welcome to Talking Feds, a roundtable that brings together prominent former federal officials and special guests, for a dynamic discussion of the most important political and legal topics of the day. I'm Harry Litman. We taped this episode Friday afternoon, and minutes after we ended there came the cataclysmic news that Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg had died. The development has set the country reeling; on the one hand, it brought home the magnificence of Ginsburg’s life and tenure. On the other, it made an already tumultuous social, legal and political landscape incalculably more complicated and critical. Our great guests from this week —  Natasha Bertrand, Matt Miller, and Senator Al Franken — were good enough to return to the studio (or at least their laptops) on Sunday afternoon, some 36 hours after Justice Ginsburg’s death, to give us their initial thoughts about where this leaves the country.

I'll start with one thing. And that is, as with other huge breaking news, Talking Feds (this podcast) does a Talking Feds Now episode, and in fact, we’ve just produced and published a really moving and rich hour with three former clerks of the Justice that provides a portrait of her in all her human qualities. I think it's in the nature of things that the period of sort of sweet remembrance and Shivah, as it were, will be too short, as the pundits and parties move very quickly into the political implications for both parties emerging from Ginsburg’s loss. So let me ask everyone to talk about how things look on this Sunday morning, and what are the calculations, as you see them, beginning to take form in each party?

Natasha Bertrand [00:01:58]: It is a shame that we can't spend more time honoring her legacy.

Obviously she led an amazing life, really advanced women's rights and women's causes in a way that, that no one else has. And that deserves obviously a huge amount of recognition and hopefully at some point, we'll be able to honor that properly. But this is the craziest thing, honestly, that could happen in the 45 days leading up to the election politically It just throws everything into a tailspin, it raises the stakes. Like really, I mean, nothing else, it is going to create probably the most bitter fights that we've seen since the confirmation hearing of Brett Kavanaugh, and it's just going to be really, really ugly.

And we're already seeing some, some Republican senators coming out, like Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, saying that they don't think that there should be a vote on her replacement until after the November election. Some people are speculating that perhaps Mitch McConnell would want to wait until after the election to hold that vote, perhaps as leverage to get people to turn out.

But that seems pretty unlikely. He's already said that from nomination to confirmation, it usually takes about 25 days, there are about 45 days left. So, it seems like we're going to be gearing up for a huge, huge, huge political fight. It's going to be really, really divisive, and it's going to test a lot of the alliances that we've seen on the Hill, especially, with regard to Republican opponents of the president, folks like Mitt Romney, who have not been his most fervent supporters. So we'll see what happens, but it's, it's pretty much, again, one of the, one of the craziest curve balls that could have been thrown.

Al Franken [00:03:48]: I just want to say a couple of things about her. I was on judiciary and we were invited a couple of times to dinners at the Supreme Court and I got the, obviously this amazingly impressive person who, and it wasn't just women's rights. I mean, she was a warrior on so many things, including voting rights.

I love the thing on Shelby that she wrote the dissent. Where, as you know, that got rid of pre-clearance and that was chief justice Roberts wrote the majority opinion. And he said that they got rid of pre-clearance because supposedly it had taken care of the problem and it clearly hadn't.

And she said, this is like getting rid of your umbrella during a rainstorm because you weren't getting wet and that's, she was exactly right. And she was so brilliant, and her writing, such a hard worker. The one time it did meet her outside of there was, I went to a concert at the Kennedy center and she was there with Nina Totenberg, whose father was his famous string violinist or, and, and teacher of that.

And one of his students, his world-class violinists, had done a concert. And I went backstage afterwards to say hi, and I saw her and she was on her way to work. And this was at 10:00 PM. And Nina Totenberg said that she worked through the night, and she's at this point mid eighties, early to mid eighties, and just the unbelievable dedication and brilliance. I mean, also what she was writing up to the very end was so great. So she just, Oh my God, unbelievable. Giant. 

And now I want to talk about how awful Mitch McConnell is, and how awful the Republicans in the Senate are. Before Harry Reed went nuclear, we had a session, like a secret or a closed meeting, a closed meeting in the old Senate chamber, and a number of us wanted to do a gang of 16, which they did in 2005, when Bush was president.

Democrats weren't voting through. So his judges, a lot of his judges and we made a compromise, and they created the gang of 16, which they agree it was Republicans and Democratic senators who agreed to let through reasonable nominees and maybe some not so reasonable, as long as the, just the nutcases weren't let through.

And it was Republicans and Democrats together did that. We, in that meeting, asked for that and they wouldn't do it. And that's why Harry had to go nuclear, but it wasn't conducive to that anyway, it was a closed meeting and I don't want to say who it was, but he said that a Southern Senator said, ‘in my state, we see president Obama as exotic.’ And that wasn't actually what the guy said. The Senator said, ‘we see him in our state as an alien, as an alien.’ We were dealing with a center that had changed since 2005. And I, in my mind, Mitch McConnell has destroyed the Senate and he has destroyed the court with what he did with America. And he may well destroy the presidency as well. 

Matt Miller [00:07:00]: I think that's exactly right. And you know look, Mitch, McConnell's an obvious hypocrite, the standard that he set out in 2016, which is one that he made up out of thin air, is one he's going to flagrantly violate this time. No matter the flimsy justification he's offered to try to differentiate, this from them.

There is no difference other than raw political power. If you look to the next few months, it's very hard to see Democrats blocking the Republican Senate caucus from confirming a justice, whether before the election or after. They have to fight.

Leave nothing on the tape, and maybe they will peel off four Republican votes, but that'll be difficult. Look, McConnell has two seats more to work with, two votes more to work with than he did during the Kavanaugh confirmation, and you saw how he was able to confirm Kavanaugh, even with a thinner margin, he can lose Susan Collins.

He can lose Lisa Murkowski. He can lose even another Republican Senator and, and still get a justice through by having Mike Pence break a tie vote. There are two questions, one is, will it happen before the election or will it happen afterwards? And I think that will, that will depend on whether McConnell thinks he would have the votes before the election, and two, whether he decides the timing of the vote, which scenario offers him a greater political advantage in the election. Because as much as he wants to confirm a justice, he wants to preserve his majority. And my guess is that means a vote after, but I don't think we know that yet. I don't think he knows it yet. It would probably have to wait and see how things play out.

And to some extent, it'll depend on conversations with his caucus about where senators are. It would be a very tough vote for Susan Collins before the election, maybe a fatal vote. Not as tough a vote for her afterwards, but like I said, he doesn't necessarily need her vote. He could lose her and two others and be fine.

And then I think the other question is a bigger one, and that is not just what is McConnell going to do, but should Democrats win the presidency, and should they recapture the Senate, what are they going to do about it? Are they going to take this lying down? I think the, the lesson of the last few years is that for Republicans, the rules do not apply anymore. It’s not even that the rules don't apply anymore. There are no rules. There are no rules. It's if you can do it, if you can, can grab power, you'll grab it. Whatever you can get away with, you will do, and Democrats are going to have to decide whether they're willing to, to play just as hard.

And that means expanding the court. It means making DC and Puerto Rico States to change the representation in the Senate so a minority of voters in the country can't decide the majority of votes in the Senate. And it means playing as tough as Republicans have for years, because anything short of that is going to leave Democrats really unable to legislate.

I mean, everything is really on the table right now. It's not just Roe, think of any progressive legislation. Another justice on the Supreme court means the affordable care act gets struck down, and it means any progressive legislation Joe Biden and a Democratic Congress pass can be struck down by a super majority on the Supreme court. I mean, the stakes could not be higher. 

Harry Litman [00:10:07]: Yeah. So it's an absolute steamroller on the court. I want to take a moment also, like Al, just to say that the justice who, if people knew her was a little bit diffident and even like seemingly shy or a very, I say this in high praise, but a very nerdy person, I just want to say was kind and thoughtful to me personally over the years in several junctures and that's not withstanding that I did not take a job from her that was offered, which might have seemed to put a permanent rift in. 

This seems to me to have been sort of manna from heaven, the owner only possible manna from heaven for a flailing presidential campaign. There are ways of thinking about this. Everyone says both sides will be ginned up, but we know that he squeaked through in 2016 with over a quarter of his voters citing the Supreme court, where there was this pending nomination of Garland as the most important thing, is this actually the one factor that will make people forget about the ineptitude and mortal mishandling of the, of the virus?

Matt Miller [00:11:18]: I don't think so, Harry, I suspect that the, the voters who came home for him over the Supreme court in 2016 were people who had voted for Ted Cruz and other opponents in the primary who were hardcore Republicans that he needed, who were offended by him, that he needed to bring home. I think he's already brought those Republicans home and I think he has them. I don't think it plays a huge advantage. That said, offer a caveat that anyone that tells you exactly how this is going to play right now, I suspect needs to show a bit more humility.  

Harry Litman [00:11:47]:  I just want to push back for one second and serve it up to Al, cause you talk to Christian conservatives all the time or read about them. How can you support this guy given? And here comes the litany of sexual assaults and lies, et cetera. The first words out of their mouth are always the courts. 

Al Franken [00:12:02]: And of course, that's why I do actually agree with Matt completely, which is they already were there on the court. This is why it was such a brilliant move for him to go, ‘I'm going to take it from the short list from the Federalist society and the heritage foundation,’ which of course Kavanaugh was on that short list. But look, I think Democrats now know how important, who didn't know then how important the Supreme court is, know now. because we had won on marriage.

We had won on Roe V. Wade. We had won those big fights. We had won on ACA, and now I think that there's a very, very different awareness by Americans, and Americans whose vote could possibly be influenced by the court, on the importance of the court. So, I think it's a different playing field than four years ago. I believe those people in ‘18 who went to the Democratic side, even more so will go to the Democratic side here, because they care about their healthcare.

Harry Litman [00:13:03]: Do you agree with Matt that this is not a huge impact on the presidential race itself?

Al Franken [00:13:08]: If anything, on healthcare, this is huge. Think about COVID, to get rid of the ACA during COVID, to get rid of protections of people with preexisting conditions during COVID?

That's, that's amazing. And, and then also to follow up on Matt, we have to, if we take the presidency and if we take the Senate, we have to expand the court, because otherwise, why would anyone ever in this country ever respect Democrats again? They will have stolen two seats. Merrick Garland. And you know, I was on judiciary then. There was no Biden rule. There was no Biden rule and, and during executive meeting, I read Biden's speech. 

And Biden, at that time, that was at the end of a Supreme court term. And what he said was if someone resigns to create a space for a president who is running for reelection. You can't, can't do that. But if he nominates a moderate, or if he consults with us, then we will have hearings. Then we will confirm that person. And actually Obama did consult with Orrin Hatch, who said Merrick Garland would be great. 

Harry Litman [00:14:17]: Yeah. Gave them a relatively moderate and older person.

Al Franken [00:14:20]: Yeah. And it was complete baloney and right now what Lindsey is doing is amazing. And let me tell you something about Lindsey. 

Harry Litman [00:14:28]: This would be Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, yes?

Al Franken [00:14:30]: Yeah. They got something on Lindsey, and here it is, he is a compulsive shoplifter and they have video of him.

Harry Litman [00:14:36]: This is not a joke I think. 

Al Franken [00:14:37]: They have video of him lifting a gravy boat from a Pottery Barn and the people of South Carolina, they're very Christian and they're very forgiving, and they'll forgive almost anything. But gravy is so important to the people of South Carolina. So, there's a reason that Lindsey has been very malleable.

Harry Litman [00:14:55]: No mess with our gravy and biscuits. Scoop impact on the presidential election itself?

Natasha Bertrand [00:14:59]: Yeah. So, I think that it's hard to say we really don't know which way this is going to swing, but I think that Trump already had the Supreme court voters, right? I mean, this is one of the most important things to Trump's evangelical base is filling the Supreme court with justices who are going to vote a certain way on abortion.

And most Trump supporters that you speak to in states, like there's a really great piece in Politico by Tim Alberta that I would recommend, he spoke to a ton of Trump voters in Wisconsin, who said that abortion was the reason, really, why they were voting for Trump, even though they don't necessarily like him or his rhetoric.

So they seem to already have the voters who are concerned about the judges and the courts and the Supreme court. But what this could do obviously is increase turnout among voters for Biden. But again, I think a lot of it depends on whether the vote is held before the election or after the election, if it's held before the election, could that actually depress turnout, I mean, among Democrats? Maybe not, because if the Democrats commit to expanding the Supreme court, then that might also be a motivating factor for Biden voters. But it could also be that they're so disillusioned that it could have the opposite impact. I mean, it just doesn't, it's really just so up in the air that it's hard to, hard to predict.

Harry Litman [00:16:1]: It's like predicting a hurricane or something, huh? It's such chaos involved. 

Natasha Bertrand [00:16:23]: Absolutely. Yeah, it's just, it's just totally a wild card. 

Harry Litman [00:16:26]: All right. How about a quick thought about the candidates he said already, it will be a woman and so the Tom Cottons, et cetera, have been eliminated. I, for my money, I think Judge Rushing, 38 years old is not very serious, but Judge Lagoa, Florida, Hispanic, there's a general competition with Republicans where they seem really in the hunt for expanded Hispanic voters who have largely been trending Democrat in recent years. And then of course the classic establishment candidate as it were, of the Federalist society,  Coney Barrett. But any thoughts on her versus judge Lagoa?

Al Franken [00:17:03]: Well, Midwest Catholic, pro-life, I think that's a political aspect to it. And Biden will remind people that he's Catholic. I kind of tend to think she's the front runner. 

Harry Litman [00:17:14]: Barret. Yeah. And we're supposed to hear that before the first debate, yes? I mean, we'll hear imminently. 

Matt Miller [00:17:19]: I think that, I think that, I think Amy Coney Barrett is probably the front runner, who knows what he'll end up doing, but she seems — he's, he's looked at her before.

She seems to be, I'd just say probably the candidate he'd be the most comfortable with. I do think it will come before the first debate if for no other reason than the one way this does advantage Trump is he is desperate to have a conversation about anything other than the virus, even if it's a conversation that's a losing conversation.

You have, sometimes you'd rather argue about something you're losing on 55-45, than losing 65-35. I'm sure it'll come, it may come the day before the first debate to time it for maximum advantage. But that said, the virus is still with us. It will still be with us through the election.

As hot as this is right now, and it will continue to be hot. It's not the only thing that's going to be on the ballot. 

Al Franken [00:18:03]: It also does affect COVID because it puts a focus bigger than ever on the ACA, which works. 

Matt Miller [00:18:08]: We're recording an hour before Joe Biden's speech on Sunday. He's going to talk about this and maybe this is exactly what he's going to say, but he has such a simple message right now, which is if Donald Trump is allowed to pick this Supreme court nominee, 20 million Americans are going to lose their healthcare coverage.

And beyond that, every American is going to lose the right to buy insurance if they have a preexisting condition, do you really want to take that risk in the middle of a global pandemic? It is a simple message that doesn't just appeal to hardcore Democrats, that's a message that appeals to all sorts of voters, and it is imminently credible when you look at what's before the Supreme court. 

Al Franken [00:18:46]: Yup.

Harry Litman [00:18:48]: All right, we'll end with a Five Words or Fewer, sent in by Harry Litman of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. And it is, when will the vote on Trump's nominee take place on the Senate floor?

Natasha Bertrand [00:19:05]: Before the election. 

Al Franken [00:19:06]: After the election. 

Matt Miller [00:19:10]: Late November, before Kelly sworn. 

Al Franken [00:19:12]: Matt, you should have gone with ‘on the election.’

Matt Miller [00:19:15]: On election day, yeah.

Harry Litman [00:19:19]: Everything has been so improbable, how improbable would it be if you flip the coin and it lands on its side. Senator Franken, Matt and Natasha, thank you so much for returning on a weekend to give everyone out there, the very valuable impressions you have of this huge chapter that is just beginning.

Again, may Justice Ginsburg's memory be for a blessing. Shanah Tovah to all, and carry on.

Harry Litman [00:19:55]: Welcome to Talking Feds, a round table that brings together prominent former federal officials and special guests for a dynamic discussion of the most important political and legal topics of the day. I'm Harry Litman. Never has it felt so keenly that we are living in the world of Orwell's classic novel, 1984, a political dystopia in which the government has subsumed science, facts, truth itself to its own political ends.

No example was more glaring than the administration's nakedly political, anti-scientific management of the virus. We learned this week that advice posted on the website of the Center for Disease Control, one of the few remaining science driven, honest brokers in a government obsessed with helping Trump get reelected, in fact, was dropped there without CDC’s consent by political appointees of another agency. The advice saying that people without virus symptoms needn’t be tested, ran directly counter to the teaching of all epidemiologists and virologists in the country. After the hue and cry, the website was revised Friday morning.

Also earlier this week, a senior political official, since quickly scurried out of government on a medical leave of absence, claimed that government scientists are withholding effective COVID treatments to hurt Trump's reelection prospects. And meanwhile, in the real world, the U S death count was poised shortly to surpass 200,000, and there were 269,000 new cases of the virus this week alone. 

Across the mall at the department of justice, the attorney general and no-holds-barred Trump champion William Barr let loose with his most radical comments yet, both formal and off the cuff. Barr, whose lack of support for the career professionals in the department has left the rank and file dismayed and demoralized, seemingly took it a step further, declaring a civil war against the professional staff that Trump has continually maligned, whom Barr analogized to bureaucratic moral busybodies. And Barr also this week offered a series of unglued opinions about Black Lives Matter, stay at home orders and the prospect of a Trump loss, which he opined would irrevocably commit the United States, “to the socialists path.”

These developments underscored a battle between two worldviews in this country: one driven by facts, science, sound policy, and one indifferent to those considerations, and driven solely by the president's prospects for reelection. And one way to state the perilous fork in the road we are at is the risk that the political world will penetrate the real world and conquer it just enough in November to deliver a second term to the president. Orwell in 1984, had a fit term for all of this: blackwhite,  which he defined as applied to an opponent, It means the habit of claiming that black is white in contradiction of the plain facts. Applied to a party member, it means a loyal willingness to say, and even to believe that black is white when party discipline so demands. 

To break down these assaults on fact and their implications for the election and American political life, we have a killer group of smarty pants commentators and returning guests to Talking Feds. They are Natasha Bertrand, AKA Scoop, the National Security Correspondent at Politico and a political analyst for NBC and MSNBC, previously a staff writer for the Atlantic. Bertrand has been among the leading writers covering the US intelligence community, and news surrounding the impeachment inquiry against Trump. Natasha, thank you very much as always for coming to Talking Feds. 

Natasha Bertrand [00:23:59]: Thanks for having me. 

Harry Litman [00:24:00]: Matt Miller next, a partner at Vianovo and the former Director of the Office of Public Affairs for the department of justice. He's a justice and security analyst for MSNBC, and he has worked in leadership positions in both the US House and Senate. Matt, as always welcome back.

Matt Miller [00:24:18]: As always, good to be here.

Harry Litman [00:24:20]: And finally, Al Franken, the estimable former Senator himself, Franken currently hosts the Al Franken podcast, one of the most popular podcasts on politics in the country. He served as Senator from Minnesota from 2009 to 2018, an improbable career shift from a previous stellar career as a writer, comedian and author, that no doubt left his Senate colleagues green with jealousy. Al do we call you Mr. Franken, Mr. Previous Senator. Welcome, under any guise, to Talking Feds.

Al Franken [00:24:55]: It would be Senator. Or Al. Or Senator Al.

Harry Litman [00:25:00]: Senator. Senator Franken, thank you. I still get to be Honorable from my 10 years as US attorney, which was, I think, in the previous millennium. Alright. Senator Franken, Natasha and Matt, let's jump in by talking about things stand with our attorney general. I want to take this in two parts, because he did some comments that are completely, you know, crazy off the cuff, too many cocktails stuff about sedition and civil liberties, but even his champions are, are pointing to the more formal vetted speech he gave at Hillsdale college a couple of days ago that's being taken as argument against all the criticism. So let's start there, that more formal speech, really, if you read it carefully, pilloried the career staff at the department of justice and he kind of has gone from not having their back to kind of knifing them in the back. Or am I over reading It? Does that, does the formal address actually seem to state an unprecedentedly harsh appraisal of the rank and file of the DOJ? 

Matt Miller [00:26:11]: No, I don't think you're overstating it, some of his allies and aids came out after he gave the speech and after all the controversy erupted to say, he was just trying to give a speech kind of in the lines of one given years ago, by a previous attorney general attorney, Gerald Jackson, it's a famous speech. Every prosecutor at DOJ knows about it, about what the role of a prosecutor ought to be And, look, if he had given that speech without the context of his last year and a half as AG, I think it would have landed a lot differently because I think there is a role sometimes for a leader of an organization to come in and talk about where an organization has fallen down and where it doesn't do well enough.

And if DOJ is being too aggressive, what are some reforms that they could implement? But he doesn't give that speech free of context. He comes in and gives that speech after he's been criticized for intervening in the decisions made by career prosecutors. And so, I read that speech kind of as an attack on a strawman.

He was attacking this idea that career prosecutors' decisions are supposed to be unquestionable, unreviewable, and all of their authority comes from me, the attorney general. And you have to have political appointees reviewing their decisions because that's where you get accountability in a democratic system.

And that's all true, but what it ignores is no one has ever questioned his authority to review cases and make decisions. And, and I don't think career people typically, it's not like they're not used to getting overruled by political appointees. That happens in every administration, it happens all the time and when it happens for good faith reasons, they may not like it, but they kind of salute and move onto the next thing.

The problem is, Bill Barr's interventions always happened for one reason and it's one very obvious reason. His interventions happen to benefit the president either to reward the president's allies, his cronies, or to go after his political opponents. And so to pretend that this was just some speech about the role of the prosecutor, when it was very clear, it was a reaction to all the criticism he's gotten for his inappropriate interventions, I think was a bit disingenuous.

Natasha Bertrand [00:28:09]: It's also a bit of pre-emptive spin on his part because he, of course, is now being investigated by the inspector general of the justice department, over his decision to intervene in the Roger Stone case and recommend that they change the sentencing recommendation earlier this year. So this is another way to kind of preemptively get out ahead of that and say, well, I'm the boss essentially, and kind of a way that he did with the Mueller report, getting out ahead of the story and trying to spin it in the way that he wants the public to view it.

But I mean, it's remarkable because Bill Barr has been on a spate of recent appearances where he's been kind of campaigning almost for the president. I mean, I don't know whether I've spoken to anyone who can remember in their lifetime, people who are former DOJ folks, you know, anyone who could remember an attorney general being this outwardly political, especially ahead of an election.

He told someone at the Chicago Tribune that if Democrats are elected this November, then the country's going to veer into socialism, and that we’re at a fork in the road.

Harry Litman [00:29:11]: Irrevocably, not just a veer, we’re there. Yeah. 

Natasha Bertrand [00:29:14]: Right. And that is just totally giving away the game there. Right? I mean, this is an attorney general who has only one master, and it's not the American people, it is the president. 

Al Franken [00:29:26]: This is just bizarre, Harry, a little secret is that sometimes in preparation for this, there's a couple of emails back and forth to discuss what the topics were. And you mentioned in this about him maybe having a couple cocktails and you mentioned this quote is that, ‘other than slavery, which was a different kind of restraint, this is the greatest intrusion of civil liberties in American history.’ And that's basically the lockdown on COVID.

Harry Litman [00:29:52]: Right.

Al Franken [00:29:53]: So he's basically, I mean, this is the greatest intrusion on civil liberties in American history, not oh segregation, not Japanese Americans and internment camps. But saving people's lives and trying to check… and you know what you say, well, this is after a couple cocktails. I don't think so, because if that's the case, he's just drunk all the time. 

Harry Litman [00:30:20]: Yeah. I mean, so zeroing in on that, what's he going to say? I mean first, this is with, with a few exceptions at the margins, not at all an incursion on civil liberties in the sense that it's all lawful and required. Maybe he has a rhetorical move planned of the exact same thing he did with spying, which is to say, well, yeah, it's an incur — I mean, it's justified, but it's an incursion. But then you would say, well, he must know that it's kind of alarmist because to return to Natasha's point, he's not simply promoting his reelection, but doing it exactly from Trump's only play here, which is to be alarmist about the prospect of Biden. 

And then, and then just returning for a second to Matt, because I did categorize in some emails some kind of crazy stuff, which we will get to, but I think even the sober stuff, if I can use that term and to be clear, I have no idea of the drinking habits of William P. Barr Jr., but even that, if you read between the lines, was an assault, I think on the rank and file and to be especially nerdy here, I think it was galling in particular to try to invoke and now defend, as Matt has said, the speech by using Robert Jackson. Whose word in that speech is sort of held up all over the department, really as a matter of what professionals prudently do and not what politicians are supposed to do, but now yeah. Let's turn to some of the crazy stuff. So actually Matt, one of the things that were reported and seemed totally whacked out was, ‘hey, should we maybe go after mayor and former US attorney, Jenny Durkan, of Seattle in some respect?’ I had thought, hmm, sure sounds like misreported, but you think not, right? Do you think that that was actually a concrete suggestion to be clear only a political enemy of the left could embrace for a heartbeat? 

Matt Miller [00:32:26]: Yeah, no, I don't think it was misreported look um, the DOJ came out and said that it wasn't true that they never considered charges against mayor Durkan, but they lie all the time. 

Al Franken [00:32:35]: Here's my question. What are we talking about? Are we talking about sedition? 

Harry Litman [00:32:39]: Well, there's two parts to this to one would actually be one US attorney said on the phone, he said, maybe we can get our first sedition.

That is like, you know like, really from planet bizarro. But there was other apparently concrete suggestion that we get her for something, maybe under 242, the civil rights statute for somehow failing to protect the good people of Seattle. And Matt, that’s what you heard?

Al Franken [00:33:04]: It’s insane. It’s insane.

Harry Litman [00:33:08]: We’re talking about layers of insanity. This might be about the ninth circle of insanity, what you got here Matt? 

Matt Miller [00:33:13]: It's so insanity. And when DOJ came out and said that, no, we didn't consider this for Jenny Durkan, the mayor of Seattle who, by the way, is a former US attorney…

Harry Litman [00:33:20]: And really a fine one, I must say.

Matt Miller [00:33:21]: An excellent U S attorney, widely respected inside the department. They confirmed that they did consider charges or, or could explore charges against officials in Oregon.

Presumably mayor Wheeler, maybe the governor, God only knows. And, it was reported around the same time that they were pushing for charges of sedition against protesters, against violent protesters. And in fact, the deputy attorney general has now sent a memo openly encouraging people to consider those charges.

And I think it got a little bit mixed up. What I've been told is they weren't. They weren't suggesting that you would charge elected officials with sedition, but you might charge them with this civil rights charge that Harry mentioned that they've interfered with the police in some way, it's bonkers.

And by the way, not only is it bonkers, but one of the things that Barr railed against in his speech are all of the people who are trying to criminalize political differences. And so he criticized legal pundits, some of them former prosecutors, probably talking about you, Harry...

Harry Litman [00:34:14]: We do have a complicated relationship now. 

Matt Miller [00:34:16]: Yeah, that's right. Who he sees on TV talking about such and such politician, you know, has done something unethically and it might be a crime when his own department was considering criminal charges against elected officials for what are clear policy differences, not criminal violations. I think it goes back to the thing about Barr is he is a Republican of sort of different sort than we've seen in elected office. He's not just a traditional conservative. He, to me is a kind of a like pre-revolutionary European conservative, that fuses kind of authoritarianism with conservative Catholicism in a way that is...

Harry Litman [00:34:54]: Yes, that’s a big part of it.

Matt Miller [00:34:55]: It's a brand of authoritarianism conservatism that we haven't seen much in America. When you fuse that with Trump's demand to have an attorney general who will prosecute his political opponents, it is I think extraordinarily dangerous. 

Harry Litman [00:35:0]: This is an aspect that I hadn't taken full stock of. This is the world, the very, very narrow world in which he lives, in which basically everything that's happened since Vatican two or so, has just been hell in a hand basket kind of stuff.

And he believes that sort of deeply, I mean, one way to express some of these crazier views is he sees, or Trump sees kernels of things, antifa once was responsible for a, for a death in a protest. It was of the antifa guy who was hapless, but nevertheless, there's a teeny kernel where things go wrong, but they see it as these huge assaults on the stability of America and the American way. And it's that kind of distortion based on really antediluvian social views that is driving him in office much more than people, certainly me, took stock of in advance. 

Al Franken [00:36:06]: Also we're just getting into, and this is something I want to talk about maybe later when we're talking about kind of their war on science. Which is, there's just two sets of truth now. And now you're hearing all over the place that left wing people are setting fires in the Northwest. 

Harry Litman [00:36:26]: Antifa is? 

Al Franken [00:36:28]: Yeah. All this stuff that's out there that's just made up. And is in their universe of information, and it is just frightening.

And when you have someone like the attorney general just giving credence to that kind of stuff. Which is, you know, that black lives matter is a terrorist group. I mean, that, that basically that kind of thing. And we know that there are right wing agitators who try to  create mischief and make it look bad. I mean, we, we know that.

Harry Litman [00:3:01]: We know for a fact from the FBI it's the real problem. In fact, it's just a fact. As opposed to left wing agitation.

Al Franken [00:37:07]: Well, we had FBI director Ray testify that yes, there, they’re the much bigger problem, the right wing, and that antifa isn't an organized group, it’s an ideology, as he said, Q Anon is too. I mean, there's a difference. 

Harry Litman [00:37:25]: I think we can all condemn them. And the question is, are they some huge social problem that should drive DOJ policy? Not just drive, but, but actually, cause this goes up on what Matt said, which is, so much in his speech is ironic, not just disingenuous because it characterizes what he has said. And this is an example.

Al Franken [00:37:43]: He said he's been pissed off since Vatican two. He's pissed off at Martin Luther. 

Harry Litman [00:37:48]: No, no, no, but it's true. I mean, there's a sense in which the, the kind of self-reliance and departure from bigger authority of the whole Lutheran strain of Western civilization, that's the other tribe for him, right? 

Al Franken [00:38:03]: Yup. Yup. 

Natasha Bertrand [00:38:04]: It's not just Barr. I mean, Barr obviously is in a very powerful position. And he has ordered that he's trying to implement this system, whereby these left-wing agitators or Antifa, whatever you want to call them, are… federal charges are being brought against them for things that used to be handled at the state and local level.

So kind of trying to create this sense of panic and chaos and make them into this much bigger thing than they actually are, but it's not just Barr.  It's also happening across government. I mean, just look at what happened at DHS. DHS has been trying to essentially alter its intelligence by saying that left wing groups pose a bigger threat than right wing groups, that Antifa is a bigger threat.

Chad Wolf was allegedly trying to get intelligence analysts to focus more on left-wing violence than right-wing violence in order to feed the president's narrative on certain things. So, it's kind of like everyone is feeding each other and it's kind of feeding into the same cycle of just reinforcing what the president wants to hear and his political agenda.

And there's a sense among people that I speak to that it's happening at agencies across the government, that all of this stuff, people are becoming disillusioned. They don't want to shake the boat. They don't want to come up with things that might upset the president, so they're not doing work as vigorously and it's this cycle that's just going on and on and on. And the fear obviously is that if Trump is reelected, then those institutions will just, the independence of them will just kind of erode entirely. 

Harry Litman [00:39:36]: Is this political and career folks, Natasha? That you're talking to?

Natasha Bertrand [00:39:39]: Yeah. Yeah. This is both. So there's a lot of disillusionment, for example, inside the CIA, which is a story I'm working on now, there are tons of people at DHS who say that, for example, the Homeland threat assessment was altered multiple times. There are drafts of that on the internet now to basically water down assessments that were made by Intel analysts, because they didn't want to upset the president. Chris Ray, I mean the FBI director was attacked mercilessly by Trump on Twitter last night, because he was speaking bluntly about the threat posed by  right wing groups and the threat posed by Russia and trying to undermine Joe Biden in the election. I mean, these are things that they're trying to avoid by not disagreeing with the president publicly, but ultimately, it's just a no-win situation. 

Harry Litman [00:40:21]: What about Chris Ray? Look, we can close I think this topic here by amplifying what Natasha had to say.

I mean, he's guaranteed himself a Trump ouster if Trump wins, and he must have felt that it was very important to sound the alarm. He's a cautious guy, not by nature a rock the boat guy, but he must have really felt that there's a big danger out there that I've just got to somehow get the word out. If he was ready to take this kind of personal risk. 

Al Franken [00:40:52]: He made it very clear in his testimony yesterday that these right wing groups are much, much more dangerous and organized and violent. And I'm surprised he's still there after that testimony in a way. Redfield, the CDC director testified about a number of things, including that the vaccine won't be widely available until at least the end of the second quarter, probably in the third quarter. And he also said that masks are a better protection, even than the vaccine, and in his press conference, Trump, on both of those counts said, I think he misunderstood the question. He said that, and you kind of go like, wow. Wow. Wow, really? Really? And, I don't understand why the white house press corps doesn't do more of like, questioning that kind of thing. Like you really think he didn't understand the question, what about, when will the vaccine be available, could the head of the CDC misunderstand?  Is it, ugh.

Harry Litman [00:42:02]: Alright, that actually is the perfect transition to the next topic. Although on Talking Feds, we demarcate with the special sidebar feature, where we ask somebody to explain some of the terms and relationships that are foundational to events that are in the news, but not necessarily explained.

So, we're going to take up the very important, it sounds legal, oh, it is legalistic, but it's practically vital between States that count ballots as long as they're postmarked by election day and others that count them only if they're received by-election day, and hopefully delivered with dispatch by the US postal service.

And to explain this, we're very fortunate to have Anjelica Huston, known to all, but she is an American actress, director, producer, author, former model, and a kind of American aristocrat to people who like me idolized her father and her grandfather, and their really promethean role in the film industry. So she's got a long list of film credits, the Addams family, the Royal Tenenbaums, Pritzi’s Honor, many more, she's had an Academy award for best supporting actress, golden globe, and a star on the Hollywood walk of fame. And she will now explain to Talking Feds listeners the important distinction between when States will count mail in ballots.

Anjelica Huston [00:43:29]: Most voting procedures are set by state law, and so can vary in important ways from state to state. Critical examples this year especially the difference in mail deadlines state by state. Some states have postmarked-by deadlines. That means the vote counts as long as the ballot is postmarked on or before election day. In California for example, ballots count if they are postmarked by election day and arrive at the election office within 17 days after election day. And in New York, they count if they have a postmark by election day, and arrive at the election office within 7 days of the election. Many other states, however, have received-by deadlines. In those states, a ballot received after election day wont be counted, even if it was filled out and postmarked before. Florida is a good example: its law requires ballots to actually arrive at the election office by 7 PM on election day. Given variation in post office processing times, the two different kinds of law can always be pivotal, but this year they loom particularly important, given the need for many voters to rely on the mail because of the virus, and the grave concerns about the funding and effectiveness of the US Post Office. The bottom line is, if you intend to use the mail to vote, and there are other ways, like early voting or ballot drop boxes in states that have them, it is vital for you to inform yourself what kind of law your state has. Talking Feds has a link posted on the site providing the information for each state. For Talking Feds, I’m Anjelica Huston. Thank you, and please vote.

Harry Litman [00:46:24]: Thank you very much Anjelica Huston for that explanation, by the way, Anjelica is also a spokesperson for both PETA and the Humane Society, and the New York Times bestselling author of two memoirs, A Story Lately Told: Coming of Age in Ireland, London and New York, and Watch Me: A Memoir. 

Alright, so the transition prefigured by the Senator to everything that's going to hell in a handbasket with the virus and the vaccine, but particularly the same historic propensity to create just this alternate reality and flog it mercilessly, facts and science notwithstanding. So, let's just zero in on the CDC again, here we have some stuff that is crazy loony, the stuff with Caputo, say, and his remarks that earned him a 60 day medical leave of absence. But, this is also the general MO, right?

I mean, we've learned. This week about ways in which really basic guidance on the CDC site was inserted there without CDC’s approval by political appointees at the HHS. Where does this leave, say American's trying to figure out whether they need to get tested say, if they don't have symptoms. 

Al Franken [00:47:44]: Well, this is just so irresponsible. This is an assault on these agencies, I mean the FDA has been compromised by proving hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for COVID, and as it turns out, it's not effective at all and actually can kill you.And then the worst, I think the worst, was Trump saying that the FDA was infiltrated by the deep state. That's insane. These are career scientists. These are people that work for Republican administrations, Democratic administrations, the job of the head of these agencies, CDC, NIH, FDA, their job is to protect their scientists. This is about science, about evidence about, we figured out the earth was round, that there's gravity, and how much gravity. And because of that, we got to the moon. This is an assault on science and it's an assault on truth.

And there's a consequence for this. I had on my podcast Lori Garrett, who is an amazing authority on pandemics, on infectious diseases, and Andy Slavitt, the former head of CMS, Medicare and Medicaid. And what Laurie basically said is that no matter who wins, if Trump wins, we're not going to take a vaccine. I asked Lori, if there's a vaccine approved before the election, would you be poked with it? And she said, no. But if Biden wins, boy oh boy, first of all, there's a lot of anti-vaxxers within the Trump community, but that's a disaster. The whole point of vaccinating people is to get to a critical mass of people who can't get COVID, and so we can get control of this damn thing. And this has been just criminal, just criminal. 

Matt Miller [00:49:36]: I think the senator’s getting at what I think, what will be one of the most long standing effects of Trump and Trumpism. Since he ran, he has tried to take out really any independent arbiter of the truth. I mean, you started with an Orwell quote, Harry, when we started this podcast and it's appropriate, because he has run assaults on the media, assaults on law enforcement, at the justice department and the FBI, had previously run attacked scientists over climate change and told his followers, ‘you don't have to believe any of these people, what you, you need to believe what you hear from me and not from them.’ And now it's, it's scientists that work at the CDC and the FDA and the long-term effects in all of these spheres will be, I think that a number of Americans lose faith in all of these institutions.

And I've thought a lot about it. We've talked about the justice department. What will happen on this podcast? What will happen to the justice department afterwards? I don't know what will happen to all of the Americans who have heard from Trump for four years that they can't trust the FBI.

And so, when the FBI comes and knocks on your door, do you cooperate in an investigation? If Joe Biden is president and a vaccine rolls out, and Trump from the sidelines is tweeting, ‘you can't trust Joe Biden and you can't trust these people at the FDA.’ He's doing it after years of undermining them from the inside, do people not take the vaccination? And, in some ways it is the culmination of a long term Republican party strategy. This happened, this started long before Trump, trying to discredit experts. And Trump is the sort of apotheosis of it. But I think the effects, we may get rid of Trump in November, but I think the effects of Trump and Trumpism are going to be with us for, for much, much longer.

Al Franken [00:51:11]: Matt is so right, this started a long time ago. There's a reason Rush Limbaugh got the presidential medal of freedom. Without Rush Limbaugh, there's probably no Trump. But what we have now in this country are two sets of information. There is no baseline of truth in this country, and that is a disaster and it started with Rush, and then Fox, and then the internet and Breitbart and all that disinformation.  And it is, I don't know how we recover from this.

Harry Litman [00:51:42]: Yeah, I mean our whole enlightenment tradition is maybe at stake, y'know I don’t want to be too apocalyptic. Scoop, do you have any thoughts about the stakes here?

Natasha Bertrand [00:51:50]: Yeah, so I think that the Caputo situation is just so emblematic of Trump's blatant, just attempt to shift the narrative and just try to make things appear as they are not in reality. Caputo is, speaking of Roger Stone... 

Harry Litman [00:52:06]: They’re buddies. 

Natasha Bertrand [00:52:07]: Yes. A buddy of Roger Stone, who of course is disgraced, was convicted of lying about his contacts with the Russians and witness intimidation and Michael Caputo and Roger Stone go way back.

Michael Caputo was a Trump campaign advisor, has his own shady connections to Russia that got him in Mueller's crosshairs, and most importantly, he has zero experience in anything related to science or medicine. And Trump approached him directly and said, y’know I want you to fix this because he knew that he could not fix his already disastrous response to COVID.

So he said, okay, well, I'll just fix the way the public looks at it. Mike Caputo has long been one of the chief attack dogs for Trump. If you take a look at his Twitter account, which he has since actually deleted, but there’s screenshots. I mean, everything was just like rapidly defending Trump and attacking his, his opponents, including John Brennan, who he actually suggested would be executed for treason.

So this is the kind of person that the president wanted communicating their coronavirus strategy to the public, and he got his wish because Caputo was actually there for five months, which is so long, and was there during the most important moments of the coronavirus messaging and he installed loyalists with no experience in science or medicine into the public affairs office, he ordered a $250 million PR campaign to try to change the public affairs messaging coming out of CDC.

And, and he just completely altered reality. And now of course, it's all coming back to bite the administration because they were all lies, and this is someone who is clearly unhinged. So, I think that this is, the damage that's been done is, is pretty hard to turn back because the perception that the public now has is that this is all political. Michael Caputo made it very clear that everything is political, that the scientists were the deep state that we're trying to get the president, and he actually ordered scientific reports to be altered. And that, I mean, if you are a member of the public and you're like, Oh, well, like, scientists can just be asked to change things? Like, what does anything mean anyway? Then what are you going to trust? And so that's, the reputation has definitely been tarnished. 

Harry Litman [00:54:21]: Yeah, I think this is a brilliant point, so it's not simply that Trump has discredited the entire kind of professional staff of this country for being, Barr called them, moral busybodies.

He's got a theory that's going to resonate in exactly the situation that Matt talked about. So, Caputo alleges, this is the thing that got him his medical leave, that the scientists were there actually trying to hurt Trump, to hurt his reelection by withholding effective treatments.

And he added to it by the way, somehow it worked out that if you carry guns, buy ammunition, ladies and gentlemen, because it's going to be hard to get.

I mean, it's this hardcore view that not only are there two, as Al says, kind of completely separate views of fact, and going back to Orwell, the ability to claim that black is white, but there's a reason which is this whole deep state, they're not just dunderheads, they are in it to try to hurt Trump.

And that means that later on, even if he is not elected, there'll be a ready argument just based on psychology that you can disbelieve everything because they are just in it to try to maliciously hurt our team, our guy, and that just doesn't go away.

That's not a question of ignorance. That's a question of an ongoing war that Trump on the sidelines, as you say, and the 30% or whatever of diehard Trump supporters will continue to wage. 

Matt Miller [00:55:53]: Here's the crazy thing, Harry, Michael Caputo is an obvious crackpot, but are his views really that much different from the attorney generals? I mean, it is the same kind of brand of apocalyptic thinking that if Trump isn't elected, all of these terrible things are gonna happen to the country, is the same thought that there are people buried within this agency who aren't here to do the right thing, or haven't spent their whole careers trying to do the right thing for the country, but are here because they're trying to get the president. It is a slightly more crazy version of what Barr said and that we talked about in the first half of this podcast, it is from the same strand. It is the same kind of, you know, just, just paranoid conspiratorial thinking that is, it has infected the entire administration. 

Harry Litman [00:56:33]: Yeah. It's got this marshal kind of end of days, feel too. He said, this is what he predicted, Caputo… Trump would win, but Biden wouldn't concede. And when Donald Trump refuses to stand down at the inauguration, the shooting will begin. You know, it really, it's not just crazy, but it's crazy in a way that points to sedition or insurrection or the end of enlightenment society, as Al says, not to put too fine a point on it. 

Matt Miller [00:56:59]: Not very different from, from Barr saying that Democrats want a Roussaain revolution, it’s the same thing. 

Harry Litman [00:57:04]: Right, right. Irrevocably. But Barr always has better words and he’s more well-read.

Al Franken [00:57:08]: Something significant happened this week, which was that Scientific American, for the first time in 175 years, endorsed a presidential candidate.

And it is because of this unbelievable attack on everything, but on science. I had Michael Lewis on the podcast very early on with his book, The Fifth Risk, and what he did was profile the transition. What happened during the transition. And like the first people came to the energy, from the Trump team to the energy department, all they wanted to know was who in the energy department had gone to a meeting about global warming. And right now, the West coast is burning. It is so dangerous. This is just a war on, it is a war on the enlightenment. I hate to be apocalyptic here…

Harry Litman [00:58:01]: It’s going around.

Al Franken [00:58:02]: But I think this is the second most important election of our lifetime, the most important one being the last one, but we blew it.

Harry Litman [00:58:10]: It's funny that the apocalyptic sentiment seemed to be on both sides, but yet, all this rhetoric, all the sort of two silos, truth and falsity all get filtered down to try to influence what, 3% of people in four different States. I mean, can the stakes of it or the rhetorical war make any difference to the actual most important election of our lives as the Senator says, are all of us just full of frustration and flailing for what is a sort of micro battle that we can hardly fathom?

Al Franken [00:58:49]: People are frustrated because they've had this day inside… 

Harry Litman [00:58:52]: David Frum had this great point, I think, which is that his terrible ratings in September have something to do with, with the back to school thing and like, oh man, we have another year. Thank you, Mr. President.

Matt Miller [00:59:04]: I's that, and that, I think people are just exhausted of him.

You see it right in the TV ratings for some of his last appearances and you see it in his approval ratings, to at least make my last comment on a slightly optimistic note, for all the horrible things he's done in for, for as much as sometimes it seems like nothing matters. I think another way to look at it is that in fact, everything matters and there's a reason why even enjoying maybe the best economy of my lifetime, that he hadn't caused it, but he enjoyed it. Trump's approval rating was still never above 42 or 43%. And it is because all of these other authoritarian instincts.

His war on the truth, his refusal to behave appropriately as president. So, I'll end with that and hope that all of that does matter. And there's a bit of a reckoning coming in 45 days or so. 

Al Franken [00:59:48]: My last word on this is that last time I was scared, and I'm scared again. First of all, the fact that we have this electoral college and Biden probably has to win by at least four points to win is scary. Secondly, Angelica was so great in her segment. She's a great actress, but that summary was maybe the best work she's ever done. It’s so scary. I mean, if they don't start counting them until the day they're in, which a lot of States do, he's going to declare victory. And Barr, I don't put it past them to do anything. And the police support Trump and Barr is the attorney general and they  have federal troops that we've seen. I wish I could be so sure about this, and also you might remember the last one. So I just, point is I want everybody listening to become a poll worker. 

Harry Litman [01:00:48]: I mean, this is a real difference with 2016, Matt and I have had a side conversation the last couple of days about, would Barr just go and pound ballots for example. And you know, in 2016, A, there was a little bit of a surreality, almost comedy aspect to it and be a kind of general expectation that oh, he wouldn't be that bad, would he? 

And now what's been shown is, he's worse. I mean, really worse and redoubling at every turn. So, now I agree that whatever the stakes are and if you read the pollsters, it seems not that different from 2016, there's no leavening effect. It's just the biggest, most frightening stakes of our lifetime. 

Natasha Bertrand [01:01:32]: I think Trump has more to lose this time, which also makes the stakes higher. 

Harry Litman [01:01:36]: Well, go ahead. What do you mean by that? 

Al Franken [01:01:38]: I want to ask Natasha about Russia, because we overlook that too. And Russia was a big player last time, people said, well, you know, the Russians are back. They never left. And Natasha, can I ask you what we know? And also maybe more importantly, don't know about Russian interference in this election. 

Natasha Bertrand [01:02:00]: Yeah. I mean, it's, it's a big topic. I think we, we do know that they're trying to denigrate Joe Biden again in terms of denigrating the democratic opponent, the IC has said that, the FBI director just said that yesterday.

But it doesn't seem yet, I don't think we know the full extent of what they're doing or the organizations that they've hacked into and what they might be holding on to and tricks they might have up their sleeve for the waning days of the election. But. It seems like they're having a bit of a, less of an impact than they did in 2016, because people are more on their guard about disinformation and about foreign interference, which is a good thing.

And I think we're in this situation now where the ultimate threat, the bigger threat perhaps is coming from the president himself. I mean, just in terms of disinformation surrounding mail-in voting, for example, the Russians are now parroting the disinformation that he's putting out about mail-in voting.

So, the disinformation surrounding that actually has been like, leapfrogging off of what the president himself has been saying, trying to discredit the legitimacy of voting. So what do you do when it's not necessarily foreign interference, that might be the biggest problem, but, but Trump himself, I mean, that's, that's a huge question to grapple with as well, but I think we're better off than we were in 2016, for sure.

So are the tech companies, social media companies are more on guard. There's more collaboration going on between them and the Intel community. But there's certainly still a fear that there could be something like an October surprise type thing that no one sees coming. But again, I mean, it just seems like at this point the lies and the spin and the voter suppression efforts are really in earnest coming from Trump and his campaign.

Harry Litman [01:03:37]: You know, I am sorry to pile on Natasha, but I wanted to ask you to spin out a little bit what you meant about Trump's having more to lose this time. 

Natasha Bertrand [01:03:45]: So, I think in 2016, he, he didn't think he was gonna win, right? He was just kind of doing it because he wanted to bolster his business. That's been pretty well documented by everyone that was surrounding him at that point that he just didn't really care.

He was shocked when he won, and it was like a big PR campaign. And Michael Cohen has said that, but this time around. he potentially has criminal exposure, you know, depending on who you ask, he could be indicted for whatever after he leaves office, particularly given the investigation going on in New York and to his organization. There are just a number of reasons why it's more important than him forever to hold onto power. Some people say, well, he might just fade off into oblivion and like, start his own Trump TV network, but I mean, Trump is not someone who's just going to admit failure and loss and then just move on quietly.

Even if he does concede the election quickly and without any chaos, it seems really unlikely that he's going to stay quiet. I think that he's trying to desperately, and the people around him frankly, are trying to desperately hang on to that power because they've seen what they can get away with over the last four years and how they can kind of reshape institutions to their liking. And I think they also recognize the potential exposure that they face if they're not protected by that higher office.

Al Franken [01:05:02]: Maybe I can put a final, just a coda on this, if Trump loses and he has to leave between November 3rd and January 20th, I just want to say to the joint chiefs that that will not be the time to take away the nuclear codes from him. That will be the time to give him the wrong code. 

Harry Litman [01:05:23]: Alright, we have just a couple of minutes for our final feature of Five Words or Fewer, where we take a question from a listener and each of us has to answer in Five Words or Fewer.

Today’s question comes from Adam Birnbaum, who asks, “Europe is apparently going through its second wave. When will our second wave be? Five Words or Fewer to all you future prognosticators. 

Natasha Bertrand [01:05:51]: Probably during this flu season. 

Matt Miller [01:05:54]: Now, as the temperature drops. 

Al Franken [01:05:57]: Right after the first wave. 

Natasha Bertrand [01:06:01]: That's good. 

Harry Litman [01:06:02]: The worst time, when else? 

Alright, thank you very much to Natasha Bertrand, Matt Miller, and Senator Al Franken. And thank you very much, listeners, for tuning into Talking Feds. If you like what you’ve heard, please tell a friend to subscribe to us on Apple Podcasts, or wherever they get their podcasts, and please take a moment to rate and review this podcast. You can follow us on Twitter @TalkingFedsPod to find out about future episodes and other Feds related content. And you can check us out on the web, talkingfeds.com , where we have full episode transcripts. You can also look to see our latest offerings on patreon.com/talkingfeds , where we post discussions about special topics exclusively for supporters. Submit your questions to questions@talkingfeds.com , whether it’s for Five Words or Fewer, or general questions about the inner-workings of the legal system for our Sidebar segments. Thanks for tuning in, and don’t worry: as long as you need answers, the Feds will keep talking.

Talking Feds is produced by Jennifer Bassett and Rebecca Lowe-Patton. Our editor is Justin Wright. David Lieberman and Rosie Dawn Griffin are our contributing writers. Production assistance by Matt McArdle. Our consulting producer is Andrea Carla Michaels. And our gratitude as always to the amazing Phillip Glass, who graciously lets us use his music. Talking Feds is a production of Dalito, LLC. I’m Harry Litman, see you next time.